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July 24th - Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics on Friday showed that UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.0% month-on-month in June, compared to economists expectations of a 0.3% decline. Year-on-year growth in June retail sales was 4.2%, also higher than the 2.3% increase predicted by economists. Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the Office for National Statistics, said that demand for "outdoor goods, air conditioning and clothing" was strong in June, and online sales of sporting goods were also good. These figures further demonstrate that consumer sentiment is improving after the Middle East conflict hit consumer confidence. Household inflation fell to its lowest level in over a year due to lower fuel and food prices, and the sluggish labor market also showed signs of stabilizing. However, this recovery remains fragile. The recent breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement has reignited concerns about soaring energy bills and rising mortgage costs.Germanys GfK consumer confidence index for August was -29.6, compared to a forecast of -28.5 and a revised previous reading of -29.3 (from -29.2).Kia Motors shares plunged 13% after the company released its second-quarter earnings report.ECB Governing Council member Mollan: US President Trumps tariffs have brought more uncertainty to the global economy and growth.Germanys August GfK consumer confidence index and the UKs June seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month rate will be released in ten minutes.

While examining global development expectations, the WTI price falls below $72

Alina Haynes

Mar 15, 2023 11:38

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WTI is experiencing a corrective decline that began around $81 and is currently trading just below $72. The diminishing expectation of cumulative global development is depressing oil demand. WTI price struggles to remain elevated despite restricted oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) desires to maintain oil prices above the $80 threshold; consequently, a number of voluntary adjustments have been enacted; however, oil prices are more interested in the global economic slowdown than the law of supply and demand.

 

The global outlook for inflation, which is a major driver of commodity prices, is deteriorating as a result of rising global borrowing costs. This effect has been observed in numerous commodities, including copper and iron ore.

 

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have dampened investors' sentiment regarding underlying financial conditions. The global development outlook is clouded by recent unemployment in numerous developed countries.

 

Recent data demonstrated that the Chinese reopening narrative is less optimistic than previously believed. China was one of the countries that contributed to rewriting the global development narrative following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This time, however, is not the case.

 

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released in accordance with expectations, with the headline MoM figure coming in at 0.4% as expected, from 0.5% previously, and the YoY figure coming in at 6% as expected, from 6.5% previously. The MoM core reading came in marginally higher than anticipated, at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected, from the previous 0.4%, and the core YoY reading was in line with expectations, at 5.5% from 5.6%.