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On August 13th, Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan stated that the Federal Reserves decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct, and urged policymakers to remain open-minded until September, arguing that the factors influencing inflation are complex and that rigid forward guidance would be counterproductive. Kaplan stated, "If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to continue holding rates steady, but I want to make full use of every opportunity before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions." Kaplan believes current forces include: inflationary pressures from the development of artificial intelligence, tariffs, labor constraints, and soaring oil prices; meanwhile, AI applications are having the opposite effect, accelerating the downward trend in inflation. He suggested that Warsh should use his speech at this months Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the reasons for the Feds decision to hold rates steady in July, rather than giving a purely "philosophical" speech. Kaplan stated that his concerns about long-term US Treasury bonds outweigh his concerns about the federal funds rate itself. He stated that the global rise in long-term Treasury yields reflects a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by persistently large fiscal deficits, rather than Fed policy.An explosion occurred at a military factory near Rome, the Italian capital, on the 13th, according to Italian authorities. No casualties have been reported so far.The UK Maritime Trade Organization reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to harass and monitor merchant ships, although no attacks were confirmed in the latest reporting period.Sources say Ukraines proposal was conveyed to Russia through a third party, but no response has been received yet.Bank of England Chief Economist Peel: UK economic growth provides a reason to raise interest rates.

While examining global development expectations, the WTI price falls below $72

Alina Haynes

Mar 15, 2023 11:38

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WTI is experiencing a corrective decline that began around $81 and is currently trading just below $72. The diminishing expectation of cumulative global development is depressing oil demand. WTI price struggles to remain elevated despite restricted oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) desires to maintain oil prices above the $80 threshold; consequently, a number of voluntary adjustments have been enacted; however, oil prices are more interested in the global economic slowdown than the law of supply and demand.

 

The global outlook for inflation, which is a major driver of commodity prices, is deteriorating as a result of rising global borrowing costs. This effect has been observed in numerous commodities, including copper and iron ore.

 

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have dampened investors' sentiment regarding underlying financial conditions. The global development outlook is clouded by recent unemployment in numerous developed countries.

 

Recent data demonstrated that the Chinese reopening narrative is less optimistic than previously believed. China was one of the countries that contributed to rewriting the global development narrative following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This time, however, is not the case.

 

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released in accordance with expectations, with the headline MoM figure coming in at 0.4% as expected, from 0.5% previously, and the YoY figure coming in at 6% as expected, from 6.5% previously. The MoM core reading came in marginally higher than anticipated, at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected, from the previous 0.4%, and the core YoY reading was in line with expectations, at 5.5% from 5.6%.