• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the third time in a row, and the statement emphasized that the risks of rising inflation and unemployment are rising. Powell called out the uncertainty factors and the low cost of continuing to wait and see, and said that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Powell also said that he had no intention of meeting with Trump on his own initiative, and the latters call for interest rate cuts would not hinder the work of the Fed. 2. The US sovereign wealth fund has made progress. Benson has submitted a plan to Trump. 3. The Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine: Ukraine is beginning to consider whether it should use the euro instead of the US dollar as a reference currency. 4. Trump said that big news will be announced at 10 oclock tonight, and the US media said that the United States will announce a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. 5. South Koreas foreign exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in five years at the end of April, affected by the authorities stabilization measures. 6. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.75%. 7. Member of the Bank of Korea: Due to the economic slowdown, economic growth this year is expected to be lower than previously forecast, and the need for preemptive interest rate cuts is increasing. 8. The Polish Central Bank reiterated that it may intervene in the foreign exchange market, and further decisions depend on data. 9. The Governor of the Czech Central Bank: Czech monetary policy will remain tight. 10. Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico: The central bank is likely to continue to lower the benchmark interest rate. 11. Indonesia said it would not discuss exchange rate issues with the United States in tariff negotiations. 12. The Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 14.75%, in line with market expectations. 13. Philippine economic officials: There is still room for further easing of policies.On May 8, Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Panson Macro, said that the UK economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 was lowered. The countrys GDP is now expected to grow by 0.9% and 1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, down from 1.1% and 1.5% previously. Although inflation has fallen to 2.6% in March, it is expected to pick up sharply in the coming months, possibly reaching 3.4% in the second quarter and only falling to 3.3% by the end of the year. Most of the data since the last forecast assessment would usually keep the MPC in an absolutely cautious stance. But US President Trumps tariffs have upended the global economy and disrupted financial markets. Against this backdrop, Panson Macro expects the Bank of England to have three more 25 basis point rate cuts this year, including consecutive rate cuts in May and June, and the last rate cut in November.A spokesman for British Prime Minister Starmer said: The Prime Minister will provide an update on trade negotiations with the United States later today.Market News: British officials confirmed that US President Trump is expected to announce the outline of the US (trade) agreement with the UK.On May 8, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said that the Federal Reserve has fallen into an almost desperate situation, and its dual missions - full employment and stable prices - may go in opposite directions. However, the incredibly uncertain US government policies will determine the timing and magnitude of these changes. Trumps tough stance on tariffs has further exacerbated the Feds embarrassing situation. In this case, the Fed can only choose to stand idly by. Rate cuts are necessary, but the Fed seems to increasingly need to wait until the end of the third quarter for the window of opportunity to open.

While examining global development expectations, the WTI price falls below $72

Alina Haynes

Mar 15, 2023 11:38

 截屏2023-01-13 下午5.17.06.png

 

WTI is experiencing a corrective decline that began around $81 and is currently trading just below $72. The diminishing expectation of cumulative global development is depressing oil demand. WTI price struggles to remain elevated despite restricted oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) desires to maintain oil prices above the $80 threshold; consequently, a number of voluntary adjustments have been enacted; however, oil prices are more interested in the global economic slowdown than the law of supply and demand.

 

The global outlook for inflation, which is a major driver of commodity prices, is deteriorating as a result of rising global borrowing costs. This effect has been observed in numerous commodities, including copper and iron ore.

 

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have dampened investors' sentiment regarding underlying financial conditions. The global development outlook is clouded by recent unemployment in numerous developed countries.

 

Recent data demonstrated that the Chinese reopening narrative is less optimistic than previously believed. China was one of the countries that contributed to rewriting the global development narrative following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This time, however, is not the case.

 

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released in accordance with expectations, with the headline MoM figure coming in at 0.4% as expected, from 0.5% previously, and the YoY figure coming in at 6% as expected, from 6.5% previously. The MoM core reading came in marginally higher than anticipated, at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected, from the previous 0.4%, and the core YoY reading was in line with expectations, at 5.5% from 5.6%.