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June 17th - According to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists, 10 out of 12 believe the Philippine central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Thursday. Economists at Capital Economics noted in a report that the Philippines is one of the Asian economies most severely affected by the energy shock, and inflation has exceeded the central banks target range in recent months. The firm added that while inflation concerns may prompt the central bank to raise rates, it will also consider economic weakness in its decision-making. Two economists predict a larger rate hike, reaching 50 basis points. HSBC analyst Aris Dacanay believes the rate hike could be even larger given the central banks price stability target.Gold rose in early Asian trading on June 17th. Zaheer Anwari, CEO of The Revacy Fund, stated that improved market confidence, driven by easing concerns about energy supply disruptions, inflation, and interest rates, created a more favorable environment for gold. Traders are closely watching the decisions of several central banks this week. While the Bank of Japans rate hike supported Japanese bond yields and may limit golds upside, investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged. If the Feds updated economic and inflation forecasts remain positive, it could further boost gold prices. Furthermore, continued central bank position building will provide strong structural support. Anwari believes gold prices will find stable support around $4,000 per ounce.Goldman Sachs: We expect liquefied natural gas flows to return to normal by the end of July, later than our previous expectation of the end of June.On June 17, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it will issue the sixth tranche of central bank bills for 2026 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authoritys Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) bond bidding platform on June 22, 2026 (Monday). The sixth tranche of central bank bills has a maturity of 6 months (182 days), is a fixed-rate interest-bearing bond, and will be repaid with principal and interest at maturity. The issuance amount is RMB 40 billion, the interest accrual date is June 24, 2026, and the maturity date is December 23, 2026. The maturity date will be postponed if it falls on a public holiday.On Wednesday, June 17, the Hang Seng Index opened 1.9 points higher, or 0.01%, at 24,495.85; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened 21.87 points lower, or 0.47%, at 4,636.78; the H-share Index opened 5.35 points lower, or 0.06%, at 8,234.7; and the Red Chip Index opened 9.28 points lower, or 0.22%, at 4,240.87.

While examining global development expectations, the WTI price falls below $72

Alina Haynes

Mar 15, 2023 11:38

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WTI is experiencing a corrective decline that began around $81 and is currently trading just below $72. The diminishing expectation of cumulative global development is depressing oil demand. WTI price struggles to remain elevated despite restricted oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) desires to maintain oil prices above the $80 threshold; consequently, a number of voluntary adjustments have been enacted; however, oil prices are more interested in the global economic slowdown than the law of supply and demand.

 

The global outlook for inflation, which is a major driver of commodity prices, is deteriorating as a result of rising global borrowing costs. This effect has been observed in numerous commodities, including copper and iron ore.

 

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have dampened investors' sentiment regarding underlying financial conditions. The global development outlook is clouded by recent unemployment in numerous developed countries.

 

Recent data demonstrated that the Chinese reopening narrative is less optimistic than previously believed. China was one of the countries that contributed to rewriting the global development narrative following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This time, however, is not the case.

 

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released in accordance with expectations, with the headline MoM figure coming in at 0.4% as expected, from 0.5% previously, and the YoY figure coming in at 6% as expected, from 6.5% previously. The MoM core reading came in marginally higher than anticipated, at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected, from the previous 0.4%, and the core YoY reading was in line with expectations, at 5.5% from 5.6%.