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On June 18th, OCBC Group Research analysts stated in a report that the Central Bank of Indonesia and the Central Bank of the Philippines are likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each later on Thursday. The Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates likely indicates that these Southeast Asian central banks believe short-term capital flow volatility will persist, and in this context, their policy decisions will remain primarily driven by inflation and macroeconomic stability factors. OCBC noted that the expected rate hike by the Central Bank of Indonesia will be consistent with its policy objective of preventing further deterioration of market sentiment.On June 18th, Federal Reserve officials hinted on Wednesday that they may soon need to raise interest rates rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking against the backdrop of rapidly rising inflation. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said that the decline in energy prices could provide some relief in the coming months. However, he warned that the interest rate outlook has decoupled from oil prices, suggesting a deeper uncertainty about whether underlying inflation will cool enough that the Fed will not ultimately have to raise rates. Guha stated that in addition to energy, two other pressures remain: the continued transmission effects of tariffs and the cost spillover from the investment boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Claudia Sam, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, said that she has not yet seen the conditions that would typically prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—an overheated labor market or a loss of anchor in inflation expectations. But she acknowledged that the case for action is accumulating. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be prepared to intervene and raise rates if things worsen,” she said. The Fed may act faster than it did during the pandemic when inflation surged because “they are already having this debate.”According to TASS, the local mayor said that drones attacked a Moscow oil refinery.On June 18th, at the opening of the 2026 Hong Kong Auto Show, Geely Remote New Energy Commercial Vehicle and Cao Cao Mobility (02643.HK) reached a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly promote the large-scale deployment of Robovans. According to the plan, by 2030, the two companies will have deployed a total of 100,000 Geely Remote Robovan Prodigy T6 vehicles. Guided by the "One Geely" strategy, the two companies will accelerate the construction of an intelligent logistics network for the AI era through deep collaboration in the operation of new energy commercial vehicles and logistics scenarios, jointly creating a comprehensive green and intelligent transportation new energy ecosystem solution.On June 18, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is not only an inevitable requirement for achieving high-quality development and promoting modernization in harmony with nature, but also a solemn commitment my country, as a responsible major power, has made to the international community. We will work with relevant departments and local governments to simultaneously address both existing and new carbon emissions. Regarding existing carbon emissions, we will focus on nine key industries, including steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power, implementing a three-year action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation, creating more space for new projects in high-energy-consuming and high-polluting sectors to implement carbon emission replacement at the same or reduced level. Regarding new carbon emissions, we will promote the optimization of energy structure in new projects, actively develop new models such as green direct supply, increase the proportion of non-fossil energy use, and reduce carbon emission levels. Next, we will encourage local governments to expand investment in zero-carbon industrial parks and zero-carbon transportation corridors, accelerate the realization of new clean energy power generation covering the entire societys new electricity demand, and continuously cultivate new drivers for green and low-carbon development.

While examining global development expectations, the WTI price falls below $72

Alina Haynes

Mar 15, 2023 11:38

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WTI is experiencing a corrective decline that began around $81 and is currently trading just below $72. The diminishing expectation of cumulative global development is depressing oil demand. WTI price struggles to remain elevated despite restricted oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) desires to maintain oil prices above the $80 threshold; consequently, a number of voluntary adjustments have been enacted; however, oil prices are more interested in the global economic slowdown than the law of supply and demand.

 

The global outlook for inflation, which is a major driver of commodity prices, is deteriorating as a result of rising global borrowing costs. This effect has been observed in numerous commodities, including copper and iron ore.

 

The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have dampened investors' sentiment regarding underlying financial conditions. The global development outlook is clouded by recent unemployment in numerous developed countries.

 

Recent data demonstrated that the Chinese reopening narrative is less optimistic than previously believed. China was one of the countries that contributed to rewriting the global development narrative following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This time, however, is not the case.

 

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released in accordance with expectations, with the headline MoM figure coming in at 0.4% as expected, from 0.5% previously, and the YoY figure coming in at 6% as expected, from 6.5% previously. The MoM core reading came in marginally higher than anticipated, at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected, from the previous 0.4%, and the core YoY reading was in line with expectations, at 5.5% from 5.6%.


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