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A Reuters poll of 35 economists showed that 18 of them expect the Bank of Korea to raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% on August 27, while the rest believe the rate will remain unchanged at 2.75%.

On August 25th, a CICC research report stated that the market's focus this week is the Jackson Hole meeting and Warsh's speech. Warsh's previous statement that "let the market raise rates for the Fed" failed to alleviate inflation concerns, and coupled with the ineffective intervention of the Treasury Department, policy credibility has been damaged, leading to a continued rise in US Treasury yields. We expect Warsh to reiterate the risks of inflation and retain the option of raising rates to rebuild credibility, but he will also continue to adhere to his long-term propositions of reducing central bank intervention and decreasing the frequency of communication. We believe that Warsh has not abandoned the policy concept of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," but the premise on which it is based is out of sync with the current reality, requiring coordination and clearer expression. If Warsh can demonstrate sufficient policy flexibility, market concerns about US Treasuries may be partially alleviated, supporting the dollar; conversely, trust will continue to erode, long-term US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will be under pressure.

The Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.00% during the day.

August 25th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Lambda, the AI cloud computing service provider backed by Nvidia (NVDA.O), is in talks for a funding round of up to $3 billion, which could pave the way for its IPO next year. The sources said that Lambda, an "emerging cloud" company that provides chip and other AI infrastructure leasing services, is discussing a funding round at a valuation of up to $12 billion or even higher. They stated that the funding negotiations are still ongoing and the terms of the deal have not yet been finalized. It is understood that Lambda has received multiple investment offers for this round, which, according to company insiders, could pave the way for an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year. Some sources indicated that the company's revenue this year is expected to exceed $1.5 billion.

The Nikkei 225 index opened down 358.16 points, or 0.55%, at 65,169.93 on Tuesday, August 25.

Conflict Update: 1. Sources: Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv, Ukraine. 2. Russia claims to have attacked an oil tanker near Odessa, Ukraine. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces shot down 351 Ukrainian drones overnight. 4. Ukrainian military: Attacked a Russian military factory in the Rostov region. 5. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian troops seized three more settlements in Ukraine. In the past 24 hours, "Eastern" forces have inflicted more than 315 casualties on Ukrainian troops. 6. Russian authorities claim a Ukrainian drone attack in the Belgorod region of Russia killed two people and injured two. 7. Russian online retailer Ozon stated that its logistics center in Dagestan caught fire after the drone attack. 8. A Ukrainian drone force commander stated that Ukraine hit a Russian MiG-29 fighter jet and two Russian vessels in the Black Sea. 9. Market news: Sources say the Perm oil refinery in Russia suspended operations after a drone attack on August 21. 10. Kremlin: Russian armed forces are working to identify missile production sites in Ukraine and will take measures to destroy these facilities. Other developments: 1. Russia and Ukraine exchanged 20 prisoners in Belarus. 2. The UK will provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow missile production technology. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested using frozen Russian assets to partially cover the shortfall. 4. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: Proposed stricter sanctions against Russia this autumn. 5. French President Macron: Need to intensify the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet and further coordinate sanctions measures. 6. EU: Today's approval of financial aid to Ukraine is an addition to the already approved €16 billion Ukraine procurement plan. 7. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The latest financial aid to Ukraine will be used to help Ukraine with urgently needed missile defense systems, ammunition, and radar. 8. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Despite Russia's attacks and attempts to completely blockade shipping, three to four ships are still entering the port of Veliko Odessa every day. 9. British Prime Minister Burnham: The clear message to Russian President Putin is that Ukraine will never relinquish territory that Russia cannot win on the battlefield. More measures are needed to curb Russian oil and LNG exports. 10. Russian President Putin signed a decree to protect infrastructure. Critical infrastructure owners who fail to secure their facilities in the face of external threats may have them transferred to temporary management. 11. According to Ukrainian media: Due to the Russian attack, the visit to Kyiv by US Middle East envoy Witkov and Trump senior advisor Kushner has been postponed.

August 25th - According to sources, trade negotiations between the US and Canada broke down after US Commerce Secretary Rutnick exerted last-minute pressure, leading to President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian Prime Minister Carney's vow to retaliate. Sources say Rutnick believed the framework agreement was too lenient for Canada and became a mouthpiece for US metal producers looking to retract concessions. Some Canadians accused him of changing the negotiation objectives, while some business leaders believed Rutnick successfully thwarted what they perceived as a threat to the US metal industry—an industry Trump had vowed to protect. Rutnick's last-minute intervention, bringing him deeper into the negotiations, again demonstrates his role as a "spoiler" within the Trump administration, often seizing on trade issues he believes the US can extract more leverage from. However, a White House official denied that Rutnick caused the breakdown, insisting instead that negotiations were interrupted by Canada making temporary demands outside the scope of the agreement.

1. US crude oil futures closed down 2.39% at $84.98 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 2.48% to $90.37 per barrel. The market awaited specific details of the new round of US sanctions against Iran. After several days of rising oil prices, long positions were closed for profit. Currently, crude oil is still being transported normally through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing market panic about supply disruptions. US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the third consecutive week, easing short-term supply expectations and driving a price correction. 2. International precious metals futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.63% to $4710.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.81% to $68.97 per ounce. US sanctions against Iran boosted geopolitical risk aversion, coupled with high US debt levels raising concerns about the dollar's credibility. The debt narrative replaced the interest rate narrative, and market demand for safe-haven assets and asset allocation jointly pushed up gold prices. 3. London base metals traded mixed. LME lead rose 0.66% to $1910.5/ton, LME copper rose 0.21% to $14245.0/ton, LME zinc rose 0.10% to $3827.0/ton, LME nickel fell 0.25% to $17015.0/ton, LME tin fell 0.57% to $55570.0/ton, and LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $3212.5/ton. 4. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 53417.16 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7652.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 25980.19 points. Storage and optical communication sectors declined, with SanDisk and Seagate Technology falling more than 6%. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.29%, with Tesla down nearly 4% and Nvidia down nearly 3%. SpaceX fell over 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.66%, with XPeng Motors down over 8% and Pony.ai down over 8%. European stock markets closed mixed: the German DAX fell 0.11% to 26,106.60 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.37% to 8,453.01 points; and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.35% to 10,854.32 points. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran weighed on markets, with investors remaining cautious ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and the Jackson Hole central bank conference.

Artificial Intelligence: 1. Alibaba's Wan3.0 video big data model officially launched. 2. Meta plans to launch the "HATCH" AI agent platform in the coming weeks. 3. Alibaba's liver cancer AI model accurately identifies tiny tumors, featured again in a top international journal. 4. Nvidia in talks to invest in Perplexity, whose valuation may exceed $30 billion. 5. The Dark Side of the Moon: Kimi K2.5, the first-generation trillion-parameter multimodal model, will end its service life at the end of this month. 6. Amazon Web Services: AWS Glue 6.0 upgrade reduces AWS Glue prices by 30%. 7. Former OpenAI employee Luke Metz has joined Meta's Super Intelligence Lab. 8. Lancium announced a partnership with Nvidia to advance the development of gigawatt-scale AI factories in its over 15GW portfolio. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. SK Hynix is introducing advanced packaging technology for its next-generation HBM solution. 2. Nvidia's Groq 3 LPX AI inference accelerator is in full production. 3. Xiaomi unveils its new generation self-developed processor, the Xuanjie O3: using a 3nm process, integrating 24 billion transistors, with an AnTuTu score exceeding 5.22 million. Other: 1. Joseph Tsai and Wu Yongming increase their holdings of Alibaba shares by HK$120 million. 2. XPeng Group: The humanoid robot IRON will officially launch next year. 3. Institutions predict a 14% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026; Samsung aims to regain the top market share. 4. Smart ring manufacturer Ora plans to raise up to $3 billion through an IPO, targeting a valuation exceeding $16 billion.

On August 25th, British Prime Minister Burnham stated that he and other European leaders plan to travel to the United States next month to lobby US President Trump to allow Ukraine to receive some of the US Patriot air defense missile stockpile before winter. "I look forward to going to New York in September," Burnham said in an interview in Kyiv on Monday evening, referring to the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York, which will be his first visit to the US since becoming Prime Minister. He added, "The specific details are not yet fully finalized, but I am very likely to go, especially after today's talks. I am quite clear about what I need to do in the coming weeks."

Market news: British Prime Minister Burnham plans to visit the United States next month to lobby Trump for support for Ukraine.

August 25th - According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to launch its consumer-facing OpenClaw AI assistant (internal codename Hatch) as early as the coming weeks, and plans to launch its latest AI model, "Watermelon," in October. Hatch is part of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg's ambitious plan to monetize the company's massive AI investments and diversify revenue streams beyond advertising. Previous reports indicated that Meta considered a tiered pricing system, including a monthly premium subscription fee of up to $199.99, which would include higher usage limits. Hatch is reportedly trained to access websites such as DoorDash, Etsy, Reddit, Yelp, and Outlook.

According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to launch the “HATCH” AI agent platform in the coming weeks.

On August 25th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released preliminary data on August 24th, showing that the GDP of OECD member economies grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, slightly faster than the 0.4% growth in the first quarter. However, the growth rate of the G7 economies slowed, with GDP growing by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, lower than the 0.4% in the first quarter. The data shows that the economic growth rates of five members—Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US—all slowed. Germany and Italy both saw GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, Japan by 0.3%, and the UK and the US by 0.4%. Canada's growth rate rose from zero in the first quarter to 0.8%, and France's economy rebounded from a contraction of 0.1% in the first quarter to growth of 0.2%. Of the 30 OECD members with available data, 27 saw quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the second quarter, while 3 remained flat. The GDP of OECD member economies grew by 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, higher than the 1.7% growth in the first quarter.

On August 25, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement on the 24th, saying he had approved the formal withdrawal of the US designation of Syria as a "state sponsor of terrorism." The Syrian transitional government welcomed the US decision. Rubio stated that the Syrian transitional government had taken significant steps in counterterrorism, and the US decision "removed the last major obstacle to private sector investment in Syria" and will "promote Syria's economic recovery and its reintegration into the global economy." In the same statement, Rubio also announced the removal of the Liberation Army of Syria (HAL) from the US list of designated terrorist organizations.

UK Maritime Trade Organization: Crew reports safety, but related environmental impacts were unclear at the time of reporting.

The UK Maritime Trade Organization has received reports of an incident 9 nautical miles northeast of Ash Hisha, Oman, where the tanker captain reported that the vessel was attacked by an unknown projectile, resulting in damage to the engine room and loss of power.

August 25th - According to Nikkei, Japan plans to allocate approximately 100 billion yen (about US$628 million) to help domestic companies purchase submarine cable-laying vessels to mitigate risks such as rising costs. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will include this expenditure in its fiscal year 2027 budget request, scheduled for submission at the end of August. The ministry is considering covering about half of the vessel procurement costs, with each vessel potentially costing over 40 billion yen. Procurement costs have been rising due to the depreciation of the yen and increasing raw material prices. This will reportedly be the first time Japan has directly supported the procurement of submarine cable-laying vessels. The 2027 budget plans to support the purchase of 3 to 5 vessels, aiming to encourage private sector investment.

According to Nikkei, Japan plans to spend $630 million to purchase a submarine cable laying vessel.