Real-time News

Japan's construction orders fell 6.7% year-on-year in May, compared with a previous reading of -32.3%.

Japan's housing starts rose 33.9% year-on-year in May, below the expected 31.80% and the previous month's 11.40%.

June 30th - Prices surged due to the Iranian situation, quickly giving back as markets anticipate the resumption of previously disrupted Middle Eastern supplies. Aluminum prices are on track for their biggest monthly drop since 2008, having plummeted over 15% so far in June. The temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran fueled optimism, with markets expecting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to resume freight transport in the Middle East. This expectation erased gains from the previous three months. Like other metals, aluminum prices have also been impacted by the rapid strengthening of the US dollar since mid-May, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for most buyers. Furthermore, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, and may even raise rates further to curb inflation, have also weighed on the demand outlook.

On June 30th, the National Energy Administration released the "China Power Supply Development Report 2026." The report shows that my country has built the world's largest power supply system, forming a world-class mega-power supply service network covering both urban and rural areas. The report indicates that by 2025, my country's total electricity consumption will reach a new milestone, exceeding 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, with nearly 800 million electricity users, leading the world in user volume. There are also 99,000 power supply service outlets nationwide, employing over 560,000 people, propelling my country's power supply capacity and service level into the ranks of the world's top tier.

On June 30, Eli Lilly and Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) jointly announced that they have reached a cooperation agreement regarding the rights to Eli Lilly's CDK4&6 inhibitor Vizzar® (abecicalbide tablets) in mainland China: Innovent Biologics will be responsible for the import, sales, promotion and distribution of Vizzar® (abecicalbide tablets) in mainland China; Eli Lilly will continue to be responsible for the production, supply and ongoing development of the product.

On June 30th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that the secondary market trading price of Invesco Great Wall Global Chip LOF (501225) was significantly higher than its net asset value per unit, exhibiting a substantial premium. Trading in the fund will be suspended from the opening of the market on the afternoon of June 30th, 2026, until the market closes on the same day. Redemption services will continue as usual during the suspension period.

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that gasoline sales in Japan fell 0.9% year-on-year in May, petroleum product sales fell 5.2% year-on-year, while kerosene sales rose 10.6% year-on-year; crude oil imports fell 38.4% year-on-year.

Morningstar: Lowered its fair value estimate for JD.com (09618.HK) by 20% to HK$138.00.

On June 30th, Unisound (09678.HK) announced that it plans to develop Hangzhou into a regional R&D center for the Yangtze River Delta region, constructing the Unisound AI Chip Innovation Headquarters R&D building. The project will focus on building a large-scale, high-performance intelligent computing cluster to further improve the underlying computing infrastructure for large-scale model services, supporting the company's core strategy of strong foundational models and deep applications. To this end, a subsidiary of the company entered into a general contracting agreement with Shuanglou Construction, the general contractor, for the construction of the Unisound AI Chip Innovation Headquarters project. The contract price is RMB 252,977,950.

On June 30th, Futures News reported that oil prices rose yesterday due to a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of military operations between the US and Iran. Although the two sides subsequently suspended military operations, renewed market concerns directly led to a rise in oil prices. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East. If the situation does not escalate further, or even de-escalates, oil prices will likely decline. Otherwise, market volatility will persist, and oil prices will fluctuate widely at high levels. In the short term, US crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly around $70.

June 30th - According to four sources with direct knowledge of the discussions, the unexpectedly rapid decline in energy prices over the past week has further eased pressure on European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to raise interest rates next month, but the rationale for a small rate hike remains strong. The ECB raised rates this month to prevent a surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran war from inflating market price expectations, and policymakers are currently discussing the urgency of further rate hikes. The sources stated that the speed of the oil price decline surprised them, with futures prices for several key maturities now even lower than the ECB's previously predicted "relatively mild" rate hike scenario. Previous concerns about shortages of supplies such as aviation fuel have proven unfounded, as some oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, have exceeded expectations in energy production to ensure market supply. The sources added that even amid the escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States over the weekend, oil prices did not react strongly, indicating that the normalization process in the energy market is progressing. Currently, a September rate hike remains the most likely scenario, but the sources pointed out that the June inflation data to be released on Wednesday is still of greater importance. If the June inflation data unexpectedly rises sharply, a July rate hike may re-emerge as a focus of discussion.

The yield on Japan's 5-year government bonds rose 2 basis points to 1.890%.

On June 30th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) appointed Ayano Sato, considered a supporter of loose monetary policy, as a new board member. This appointment increases the likelihood of two dissenting votes on future interest rate hike proposals. Although the nine-member board remains hawkish overall, this structural change could slow the pace of the BOJ's tightening policy. The departure of the board's most steadfast hawks, Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takada, in July next year adds uncertainty to the policy tightening path. Sato is scheduled to hold a press conference at 5 PM Tokyo time (4 PM Beijing time) on Tuesday, and the market will closely watch whether she will align with Toshiro Asada and oppose further tightening. Her formal policy debut will take place at the July 30-31 meeting, where the BOJ is widely expected to maintain interest rates. The market will weigh Sanae Takaichi's apparent monetary prudent stance (related to the financing costs of her government investment program) against the BOJ's established position of continuing to tighten policy in response to price pressures driven by the energy shock.

European Central Bank sources: So far, the second round of inflationary effects has been negligible.

The bid-to-cover ratio for the Japanese 2-year government bond auction was 4.82, higher than the previous 3.7.

On June 30th, Goldman Sachs' Timothy Moe and John Kwon pointed out that a 1% increase in the combined weighting of Samsung and SK Hynix in the South Korean stock index could lead to foreign investors withdrawing approximately $2 billion from the South Korean market, as the US Investment Company Act requires portfolios to meet diversification thresholds. Goldman Sachs also stated that a large influx of funds into leveraged ETFs, coupled with increased options trading and margin retail trading, has created a structural environment where daily price volatility far exceeds what corporate fundamentals can support. South Korea's asset management growth since last year has primarily stemmed from investment returns rather than new capital inflows. As valuations climb, institutional investors' mechanical exposure to market volatility is also increasing—often related to hedging strategies. This means that even a mild market correction could trigger a cascade of forced selling.

June 30th - It was learned today that, to further promote the inheritance and innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), four national standards in the field of TCM, proposed and managed by the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine and approved by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standardization Administration), namely, *Basic Theory and Terminology of Traditional Chinese Medicine*, *Diagnostic Vocabulary of Traditional Chinese Medicine Part 1: Tongue Appearance*, *Diagnostic Vocabulary of Traditional Chinese Medicine Part 2: Pulse Appearance*, and *Quality Control Standards for Clinical Research in Traditional Chinese Medicine*, will be implemented from July 1st. The *Quality Control Standards for Clinical Research in Traditional Chinese Medicine* is the first national standard in the field of TCM clinical research, establishing four main contents around the entire clinical research process. The four standards released this time each have their own focus, concentrating on three key areas: basic theory, diagnostic vocabulary, and clinical research. They take into account both the inheritance of traditional connotations and the needs of modern application, addressing long-standing industry problems such as inconsistent TCM terminology and an imperfect quality control system for clinical research, and are conducive to improving the standardization, scientification, and internationalization of the TCM industry.