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August 20th - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes mentioned that regarding the outlook for monetary policy, participants reiterated that the interpretation of new data would be a key part of their policy deliberations. Many participants believed that if inflation failed to fall, policy tightening might be necessary. Some participants noted that current financial conditions might not be sufficient to push inflation back to 2%. Several participants stated that financial conditions tightened between the two meetings; this change partly reflected strong economic growth and market expectations that the Committee would soon adopt a more restrictive policy stance. A minority of participants who supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting believed that this would help avoid having to take larger and potentially more costly tightening measures in the future.

August 20th - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes made no mention of any support for interest rate cuts, indicating a significant shift in the Fed's policy discussions over the past year. At the beginning of last year, the market expected the Fed to be able to lower borrowing costs this year as inflation slowed. However, price pressures have continued to accumulate, especially after the Trump administration joined Israel in its war against Iran. Nearly six months into the conflict, oil and gas shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz remain restricted. Recent data shows a slight cooling in inflation, while businesses unexpectedly cut jobs in July, leading the market to expect the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged at its September 15-16 meeting. This data leaves Fed officials divided on whether a rate hike is needed to further curb inflation, but at the same time, officials are more cautious about the strength of the labor market and the risks to achieving the full employment goal. Because Warsh has consistently refused to discuss the path of monetary policy during his tenure, the market lacks clear guidance from the Fed Chairman.

August 20 - According to a report on the Russian news channel website on the 19th, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia has begun importing fuel and has passed necessary regulations to allow the production of some low-emission fuels.

On August 20th, the minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting revealed that Fed officials have begun discussing some of the broader issues that Warsh wanted to push for, including potential reforms to the Fed's operations. Participants considered the upcoming review of the Fed's balance sheet management an "opportunity for comprehensive discussion." However, "many" participants at the meeting "reaffirmed that the primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy should be changing the target range for the federal funds rate," rather than changing the size of the Fed's asset holdings. Warsh also requested "comments from the Committee" on whether the Fed should reduce the number of annual policy meetings from the current eight to six, allowing for the accumulation of two full months of data between each meeting. The minutes stated that no decision has been made on this issue, and the meeting schedule for 2026 will not change as a result.

Shares of U.S. steel and aluminum companies fell, with Nucor (NUE.N) down nearly 8%, Steel Dynamics (STLD.O) down more than 8%, Century Aluminum (CENX.O) down more than 10%, and Cleveland Cleveland (CLF.N) down more than 5%.

EU Energy Commissioner Jørgensen: The electricity supply situation is stable, but tensions are expected to remain high in the coming weeks.

NASA and Katalyst Space have cancelled their planned effort to raise the orbital altitude of the Swift Space Telescope due to technical problems with the orbital rescue vehicle.

Iranian Foreign Minister: Speaks with Pakistani Army Chief. The two discussed the regional situation, the latest diplomatic developments, and efforts to promote political and diplomatic solutions, emphasizing the need to strengthen communication and cooperation.

U.S. Central Command: As of August 19, it had forced 65 merchant ships to change course, rendered 3 ships inoperable, and boarded and inspected 2 ships to ensure they were in compliance with requirements.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Some participants said that the ample reserve system helped the Fed maintain orderly market functioning during the brief payment system outage that occurred between meetings.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several participants said that price increases over the past year have been widespread, affecting multiple categories of goods and services.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: The economic outlook of Federal Reserve staff showed that inflation forecasts were largely in line with those prepared at the June meeting, but the economic outlook was "slightly weak".

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Almost all members of the Federal Open Market Committee believed that it was appropriate to retain the relevant wording in the policy statement that affirmed the Federal Open Market Committee's "will achieve price stability."

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several officials believe that financial markets are taking on some of the role of the Fed's tightening policy.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several participants who supported raising interest rates at this meeting believed that raising rates sooner could help avoid the need for further rate hikes in the future.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several participants said that financial conditions tightened between the two meetings, reflecting strong economic growth and market expectations that the Fed would take a more restrictive policy stance soon.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Some participants indicated that financial conditions may not be tight enough to push inflation back to the 2% target level.

August 20th - According to The Information, citing a source familiar with the matter, Nvidia (NVDA.O) has begun discussions with data annotation service provider Mercor regarding an investment. Mercor helps the chip designer develop open-source AI models. This investment would be part of a $20 billion funding round for Mercor. Existing investor General Catalyst has been in talks to lead this round. Mercor has historically derived most of its revenue from closed-source AI model developers such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. However, Mercor's revenue from Nvidia is growing as Nvidia prioritizes the development of its Nemotron open-source model, which aims to compete with the world's most advanced open-source models. The source revealed that Nvidia paid Mercor tens of millions of dollars last quarter. In addition to Mercor, Nvidia uses data from other providers such as Turing and Scale, and also has its own internal data team.