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Samsung Electronics: System LSI business revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year.

Samsung Electronics: Profits are expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year.

On July 30th, Huatai Macro Research Report stated that the FOMC's decision to hold rates steady in July somewhat eroded the Fed's credibility, leading to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains high. The unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting in June resulted in tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and increased Fed credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the market may have begun pricing in Warsh's claim of zero tolerance for inflation as mere rhetoric. The subsequent rise in inflation expectations and long-term yields suggests that the Fed's credibility may have been somewhat eroded. We reiterate our baseline forecast of a high probability of a September rate hike, 1-2 rate hikes this year, and 2 rate hikes before mid-next year. The risks remain: ① Warsh may have been merely bluffing; ② The AI boom may abruptly end, leading to tighter financial conditions and making a rate hike unnecessary. Pay attention to the July-August employment/inflation data and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 27th.

On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices rose nearly 7% on Wednesday. As large-scale airstrikes reignited in the Middle East, market hopes for an impending end to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran were dashed; meanwhile, US government data showed domestic crude oil inventories had fallen to multi-year lows, exacerbating concerns about supply reductions. UBS analyst Giovanni Staúnovo stated that the renewed military strikes in the Middle East and Iranian officials reiterating their intention to control shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz (despite a significant reduction in oil flow through the strait) further pushed up oil prices. On Wednesday, the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, accusing them of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Hours earlier, the US military announced it had successfully thwarted an Iranian raid targeting US forces in the region. Iran, in turn, stated it fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US bases in Jordan.

1. US crude oil futures closed up 6.74% at $84.6 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 7.35% to $88.11 per barrel. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iran launching a surprise attack on US troops, disrupting the ceasefire, prompting the US to respond strongly and join forces with Saudi Arabia in a counterattack, led to a sharp drop in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant increase in ship insurance costs, and continued attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen on Saudi energy facilities and plans to collect tolls on merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These factors significantly increased uncertainty surrounding oil supply. Meanwhile, a substantial decrease in US crude oil inventories last week, far exceeding market expectations, further supported the rise in oil prices. 2. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.66% to $4065.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.64% to $57.90 per ounce. This rise was driven by the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Increased internal disagreements led to policy uncertainty, disrupting market sentiment, and coupled with strong demand for silver, pushing prices up. 3. Most London base metals rose, with LME nickel up 1.00% to $17,140.0/ton, LME aluminum up 0.92% to $3,176.5/ton, LME tin up 0.50% to $53,850.0/ton, LME lead up 0.13% to $1,897.0/ton, LME zinc down 0.11% to $3,573.0/ton, and LME copper down 0.46% to $13,622.0/ton. 4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.19% to 51,594.14 points, the S&P 500 down 1.52% to 7,316.15 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.74% to 24,442.94 points. Caterpillar fell nearly 7%, and Goldman Sachs fell more than 5%, leading the Dow Jones decline. The storage sector continued its sharp decline, with Micron Technology falling nearly 10% and SanDisk dropping over 7%. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.28%, with Nvidia down over 3% and Tesla down nearly 3%. SpaceX fell over 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.73%, with New Oriental up over 15% and Li Auto up over 4%. European stock markets closed mixed: the German DAX fell 0.01% to 25460.48 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.60% to 8408.27 points; and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.34% to 10908.41 points. Middle East geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, and market sentiment was cautious ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Hunt: I will not speculate on the August policy meeting.

Artificial Intelligence: 1. The US will hold an AI summit in Lima, Peru on September 8. 2. British media: The Bank of England is investigating investment banks' exposure to Asian stocks to avoid concentrated bets on AI. 3. OpenAI president responds to Apple lawsuit: We are highly innovative and do not need other company secrets. 4. OpenAI announces the launch of CHATGPT for academic researchers, which will be provided free of charge to 100,000 researchers. 5. OpenAI CFO: The company's annualized revenue in July exceeded the total for the entire second quarter. Other: 1. SpaceX wins a $1.6 billion contract from the US Space Force. 2. Meta's revenue hits record highs, but AI costs drag down its stock price in after-hours trading. 3. Two major MLCC manufacturers raise prices: Samsung Electro-Mechanics to raise prices by 30% starting in August, and Taiyo Yuden to raise prices starting in September. 4. The US announces a letter of intent for $874 million in semiconductor R&D investment. 5. Yangtze Memory Technologies: The online claim that "all 19 claims of its core 3D NAND patent have been ruled invalid" is a seriously misleading description. 6. Microsoft's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations at $90 billion, with Azure cloud revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. Microsoft expects first-quarter revenue of $90 billion and maintains positive free cash flow for the new fiscal year.

A Ukrainian Interior Ministry advisor stated that Russia has launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, targeting multiple cities, including Kyiv. Cruise missile strikes are expected soon.

On July 30th, Microsoft (MSFT.O) CEO Satya Nadella emphasized that customers must have the ability to freely switch between different closed-source and open-source AI models. He told analysts on Wednesday's conference call that the number of Microsoft customers building with multiple models has quadrupled since the beginning of the year. "You have to separate your system framework from the models," Nadella said. "That means any particular model should be replaceable at any given time. You should also be able to use cutting-edge models. There's no reason not to, but you can also use multiple models, right?" Microsoft has investments in both OpenAI and Anthropic, but last week signed an open letter with companies like Nvidia and Palantir supporting open models.

Market news: Intel (INTC.O) has granted access to some technologies to startup RosaicLabs, whose CEO is a co-investor of Intel's CEO in other companies.

July 30th - On the evening of the 29th local time, Iraqi Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief's spokesman, Sabah Numan, stated that the joint US-Saudi Arabian operation against Iraqi militias has hindered the investigation into previous attacks on Saudi Arabia. Numan said the Iraqi government has requested evidence of attacks on Saudi Arabia by armed forces originating within Iraq, but "no one has provided any." Iraqi security forces are developing plans to prevent attacks on the country and uphold Iraqi sovereignty. The Iraqi government rejects any aggression from outside Iraq and will not allow weapons to remain outside the state's control.

The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 6.2-magnitude earthquake in the Kermadec Islands region.

On the 30th local time, air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv, Ukraine, and a series of explosions were heard.

US President Trump: Does anyone know how much money and prestige our country has lost due to the US Supreme Court's negative rulings on birthright citizenship and tariffs? The answer is trillions, trillions of dollars!

Local witnesses reported hearing explosions in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Microsoft (MSFT.O): Operating expenses are expected to be between $16.8 billion and $16.9 billion in the first fiscal quarter; revenue from Azure and other cloud services is expected to grow by approximately 45% at constant currency.

Microsoft (MSFT.O): Operating expenses are expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate in fiscal year 2027.

Microsoft (MSFT.O): Total revenue is expected to grow by double digits in fiscal year 2027.