Real-time News

June 11th - Forex strategist Karamanis stated that euro options indicate traders expect another calm day for the ECB decision, as the rate hike has already been fully priced in by the market, and this meeting is largely seen as procedural. The euro could see volatility if officials hint at a possible consecutive rate hike in July, rather than a pause until September (a probability currently priced in by the swap market at less than 50%). However, for the forex market to experience significant volatility, the market's pricing in three rate hikes before the end of the year would need to be substantially challenged. Lagarde is unlikely to do much in this regard – she is expected to offer little beyond reiterating that future decisions will rely on data.

On June 11th, Nanjing held a football work conference. The conference heard reports on the construction of a key national football development city, the development of school football in the city, and preparations for the Jiangsu Super League. Representatives from relevant municipal departments also shared their experiences. The conference emphasized the need to fully implement key tasks for football reform and development. Focusing on "nurturing talent," the conference stressed strengthening the youth training system, consolidating the foundation of school football, ensuring smooth career advancement channels for players, and promoting the large-scale growth of young football talent. Focusing on "strengthening teams," the conference called for promoting the healthy development of professional football teams, cultivating a fertile ground for social football, and solidifying support for professional teams. Focusing on "building a brand," the conference emphasized actively introducing high-level competitions, organizing local competitions effectively, and continuously amplifying the spillover effects of competitions to enhance Nanjing's football reputation through high-quality events. Focusing on "optimizing the ecosystem," the conference stressed the importance of strengthening football culture and industry management, creating a clean and healthy football environment, and continuously injecting vitality into football development.

June 11 – According to The Washington Post, oil and gas industry executives have warned the White House that gasoline prices could surge in the coming months as fuel inventories fall to extremely low levels. This would make it more difficult for the Trump administration to curb inflation, which has already impacted American consumers. According to multiple sources familiar with the conversations, industry officials said they are doing everything they can to warn that inventories that previously mitigated price increases are rapidly dwindling as commercial and government stocks are quickly depleted, and prices are poised to soar. These executives warned that some inventories could be completely depleted within weeks, coinciding with the peak summer travel season. Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group, said, “I’m absolutely certain that the White House—from the president to officials at all levels—is fully aware that oil companies and analysts are almost universally concerned about oil price movements this summer.”

June 11th - Analyst Weber stated that the market widely expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 later this month. Due to the unique nature of the impact of the Iran war, the ECB faces a dilemma. On the one hand, inflation is above 3%, and even after excluding food and energy costs, it has accelerated to 2.5%—far above the central bank's 2% target. On the other hand, economic growth has been impacted, with business surveys showing a sharp decline in economic activity in May. Any rate hike would exacerbate these headwinds. However, the current consensus is that inflationary pressures are too great to ignore. This could mean further action after tonight. Given the high degree of uncertainty and the ongoing efforts by the US and Iran to end the war, ECB President Lagarde's statements are likely to be more ambiguous. At the same time, she doesn't want to appear complacent, so she may emphasize the ECB's vigilance and close monitoring of the latest data.

Sources within Iran's negotiating team said that no new negotiations have taken place with the United States during the ongoing conflict.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: Congressional Democrats should stop playing political games.

Fitch Ratings: The Iran war has highlighted the demand for Islamic derivatives; market adoption remains low.

Iran's Ministry of Defense: The Iranian armed forces remain on high alert and will respond sternly to any attack.

Iran's Ministry of Defense: Iran will not initiate a war, but will resolutely defend its security and territory.

On June 11, British defense official Healy resigned on Thursday over defense spending, accusing Prime Minister Starmer of failing to allocate the necessary government resources to defend the country. The Ministry of Defence and the Treasury have been consulting for months on how to meet the growing demand for increased military spending, causing the UK's Defence Investment Plan to be delayed since last year. In a letter to Prime Minister Starmer, Healy stated, "At a time of heightened threats, you have failed, and the Treasury has been unwilling, to allocate the necessary resources to defend the country." This delay has angered the British defense industry, which argues that it is unable to commit long-term projects to national security amid volatile geopolitical conditions and the US shifting its focus away from protecting Europe.

Global Chip LOF (501225): This fund will be suspended from trading from the opening of the market on June 12 until 10:30 on the same day.

British Defence Secretary Healy: Defence investment settlements have fallen short of the required levels.

British Defence Secretary Healy told British Prime Minister Starmer that he had failed, and the Treasury had been unwilling, to commit the necessary resources at a time when the country was facing increasing threats.

On June 11, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which discussed and approved in principle the draft revision of the Road Traffic Safety Law of the People's Republic of China, and decided to submit the draft to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for deliberation. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to further improve the level of road traffic safety governance, actively and steadily address new safety risks, curb various traffic accidents, better protect the personal and property safety of the people, and contribute to high-quality development.

On June 11, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting emphasized that building a beautiful China is a systematic project, requiring focused efforts on key areas, including the ongoing battles to protect blue skies, clean water, and clean soil, the coordinated optimization of ecosystems, proactive responses to climate change, and the acceleration of green production and lifestyles. The meeting also stressed the need for strengthened coordination and cooperation, employing a comprehensive approach that combines legal, market, technological, and policy measures to continuously advance the construction of a beautiful China.

On June 11, Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which heard a report on the implementation of the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to focus on the goal of building a strong nation in science and technology, efficiently organize and implement major national science and technology tasks, promote the efficient utilization of major facilities, strengthen the systematic and collaborative research of national strategic scientific and technological forces, and fully leverage the strategic supporting role of scientific and technological innovation in China's modernization. It is also necessary to consolidate the foundation for building a strong nation in science and technology, further clarify the main directions and key areas of basic research, create a research ecosystem conducive to original innovation, and accelerate the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance.