Real-time News

Futures News, April 29th - According to foreign media reports, palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Wednesday morning, following gains in external markets. International crude oil futures continued to rise on Tuesday, gaining nearly 3%, due to ongoing concerns about supply constraints caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This, coupled with a firm rise in Chicago soybean oil futures, will boost the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak palm oil export demand will limit the upward momentum. The Indian Refiners' Association (SEA) stated that increased biodiesel production in global palm oil exporting countries, diverting more palm oil for domestic energy use, will lead to a reduction in export supply.

On April 29th, Futures News reported that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract rising 1.3%, primarily due to stronger international crude oil futures, robust corn demand, and the possibility that rainfall in the Midwest might slow spring planting. Traders stated that continued rainfall in the US Corn Belt, strong corn export demand, and rising crude oil prices supported corn prices. High fertilizer costs are expected to lead farmers to reduce corn planting area, which also supported corn futures prices. Soybean and corn planting in the US is progressing well, but storms in the Midwest may delay planting in some areas. A report from the US Department of Agriculture showed that as of Sunday, US corn planting progress was 25%, well above the five-year average of 19%. The report also showed that among the 18 major producing states, only North Dakota has not yet made any progress in planting.

On April 29th, HSBC stated in a research report that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ will have a limited impact on the oil market in the short term, but may weaken the organization's supply discipline and price management capabilities over time. HSBC expects little change in global oil supply in the short term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region have remained restricted since the end of February. The UAE's room for production increases is limited during the period of restricted shipping routes. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline has a daily capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and is likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the UAE will no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and can gradually increase production. The bank estimates that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)'s daily production could rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while OPEC+'s quota until May 2026 is approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC stated that any supply increases are expected to be released in stages over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

On April 29th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures surged on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract rising 4.5%, reaching its highest level in 14 months. This was mainly due to the ongoing drought in winter wheat producing regions and the continued rise in international crude oil futures, attracting technical buying. The benchmark contract touched its highest level since the end of February 2025 during the session. The severe drought in the US winter wheat producing regions could lead to crop failure, attracting a large influx of speculative buying.

On April 29th, former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "Regarding the dual mandate, the Fed will indicate that the labor market is broadly stable. As for the inflation mandate, (with inflation still hovering at a high 3%), there is still much work to be done." He anticipates the Fed will say, "We will hold steady for now and see how things develop." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Merrick expects the Fed's post-meeting statement to acknowledge improvements in the labor market and rising inflation data, but to maintain its current policy guidance. We expect a majority to still support keeping interest rates unchanged, with only one dissenting voice, similar to the situation in March.

1. US crude oil futures closed up 3.37% at $99.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 2.74% to $104.48 per barrel. The deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz pose a clear risk of disruption to global oil transportation. US API crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and supply-side uncertainty supported stronger oil prices. 2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 1.79% to $4609.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.59% to $73.08 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided support for precious metals, but rising expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates pushed up holding costs. Combined with increased uncertainty in the Eurozone, this resulted in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. 3. Most London base metals fell. LME nickel rose 1.74% to $19,430.0/ton, LME lead fell 0.43% to $1,951.5/ton, LME tin fell 0.47% to $49,105.0/ton, LME aluminum fell 1.09% to $3,539.0/ton, LME zinc fell 1.13% to $3,359.5/ton, and LME copper fell 1.35% to $13,034.5/ton. 4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.05% to 49,141.93 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,138.8 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 24,663.8 points. Sherwin-Williams fell more than 3%, and Nvidia fell more than 1%, leading the Dow Jones decline. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.27%, with Facebook down over 1% and Tesla down 0.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.49%, with Kingsoft Cloud down over 6% and GDS Holdings down nearly 5%. Lagging OpenAI growth has led investors to reassess the sustainability of AI spending, causing widespread panic in tech stocks. European stock markets closed mixed: the German DAX fell 0.27% to 24018.26 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.46% to 8104.09 points; and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.11% to 10332.79 points. The ongoing stalemate in US-Iran talks pushed up oil prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures in Europe; with the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting approaching this week, market risk aversion intensified.

According to foreign media reports on April 29th, American drivers are feeling an increasingly heavy "pain of refueling." Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Tuesday (28th) shows that the average price of regular gasoline across the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly four years. Since the US-Israel attacks on Iran at the end of February, gasoline prices have risen by more than 40%. Data shows that the average price of gasoline across the US on Tuesday was close to $4.18 per gallon, up 11 cents so far this month; and up $1.19 per gallon since the end of February. More worryingly, there is still room for further price increases—last week, Brent crude futures rose by about 16% and US WTI crude rose by nearly 13% as diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran stalled and supply concerns intensified. GasBuddy analysts pointed out that refinery maintenance and scheduled upkeep in the Great Lakes region will keep consumers in the region facing persistently high gasoline prices.

The UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has lowered its 2026 UK economic growth forecast from 1.4% to 0.9% based on a moderate scenario.

The UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that, under a moderate scenario, the Bank of England's interest rate will be raised to 4%.

The UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that the UK economy will grow by only 0.5% under an "unfavorable" Middle East scenario.

The UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that inflation will peak above 6% under adverse scenarios.

The UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggests that, under adverse scenarios, the Bank of England's key interest rate should rise to 5.25%.

According to US financial media Semafor, US Senator Fetterman stated that he will support Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman. He may become the only Democrat to support this nomination.

According to a CNBC reporter, the head of artificial intelligence at the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that the department is expanding its use of Google's Gemini AI model.

According to Al Jazeera, the White House stated that the United States will not "rush into a bad deal with Iran" in order to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz.

April 29th - According to a CNBC reporter, sources familiar with the matter revealed that policy leaders from companies including Microsoft, Red Hat, Amazon, Google, Crowdstrike, Palo Alto, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase attended today's White House meeting regarding the artificial intelligence "Mythos." It is understood that no unified solution has been reached at the meeting, but discussions are ongoing.

Seagate shares rose 17% in after-hours trading after the earnings report was released, which also boosted Western Digital (WDC.O) by 10%, SanDisk (SNDK.O) by 4%, and Micron Technology (MU.O) by 2.7%.

Venezuelan interim president Rodriguez: We are close to ending the interest rate cut cycle that began in 2024. In the next monetary policy decision, we will consider the final interest rate cut in this cycle.