Real-time News

International oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.

Spot gold and silver traded in a volatile range. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals, converted between domestic and international prices.

As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.43% and spot palladium rose 0.37%.

The yield on Japan's 5-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 1.92%.

On July 15th, CICC Research Report stated that the seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, and the year-on-year increase fell back to 3.5%; the core CPI showed zero month-on-month growth and rose by 2.6% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. The decline in energy prices is the main reason for the cooling of inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the United States and Iran has escalated again, and the outlook for energy inflation is subject to fluctuations. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging. The mismatch between supply and demand of upstream hardware, the price increase of software and peripheral products, and the boost to aggregate demand from AI capital expenditure may all make core inflation more sticky. In terms of policy, the cooling of inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, but Waller's recent statements show [1] that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the possibility of "precautionary rate hikes". We maintain our baseline judgment of no rate hikes this year, but suggest that the threshold for rate hikes has already decreased. Once one or two overheated inflation data appear, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to further discuss the option of raising interest rates.

The Kuwaiti military stated that its air defense forces are currently responding to hostile drone attacks originating from Iran.

July 15th - According to sources, AI-powered cloud computing company Coreweave (CRWV.O) is exploring the use of financial derivatives as a potential hedge against future price declines in memory and storage chips. This unusual move highlights how the AI boom is deeply entangled cloud service providers with the volatile chip market. To lock in supply, cloud operators, including Coreweave, have signed long-term agreements with memory and storage chip manufacturers such as Micron and SanDisk. Many of these agreements provide suppliers with a price floor guarantee for DRAM and storage chips. However, this arrangement is a double-edged sword; while it protects chip manufacturers from market downturns, it also exposes cloud service companies like Coreweave to risk. If prices fall, they will be forced to continue purchasing at prices far above market value. Therefore, Coreweave executives have discussed how to hedge against the potential devaluation of memory chip inventory due to future price declines. The discussions are in the early stages, and the company has not yet implemented any hedging operations. The proposed solutions include put options and other possible derivatives.

On July 15th, Futures News reported that soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 0.7%, mainly reflecting the unwinding of oil-meal arbitrage. Traders said the unwinding of the soybean oil-sell-soybean-meal arbitrage put pressure on the soybean oil market. Improved conditions for the U.S. soybean crop and the potential easing of high temperatures in the Midwest next week also weighed on the soybean and soybean oil markets. However, stronger international crude oil futures limited the downside for soybean oil. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will release its monthly crush report on Thursday. Analysts on average expect NOPA member companies' soybean oil stocks to reach 1.653 billion pounds in June, down from 1.735 billion pounds at the end of May, but higher than the 1.384 billion pounds projected for the end of June 2025.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 12.4% month-on-month in May, compared with an expected decline of 4.2% and a previous reading of 8.70%.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 1.9% year-on-year in May, compared to a forecast of 12.90% and a previous reading of 15.60%.

Futures News, July 15th - According to foreign media reports, ICE canola futures closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 1.98%, erasing all of Monday's gains and following the decline in external markets. Traders said that canola futures reversed course on Tuesday, not only erasing all of Monday's gains but also falling further. Declines in Chicago soybean futures and European canola futures dragged down Canadian canola prices. However, slightly higher international crude oil futures and higher Malaysian palm oil prices eased the downward pressure on the Canadian canola market. The heatwave in the Great Plains has eased somewhat, reducing its impact on the Canadian canola market. The November contract is currently still above key moving averages. The Canadian dollar strengthened on Tuesday, trading at 71.07 US cents per Canadian dollar, higher than Monday's closing price of 70.70 US cents per Canadian dollar.

Artificial Intelligence: 1. The US will establish a working group to coordinate on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. 2. OpenAI responds to Apple's lawsuit: No evidence has been found to support the allegations. 3. Masayoshi Son: Nuclear fusion will become the main energy source for AI data centers in 15 years. The AI boom will require $5 trillion in investment annually. 4. Alibaba Cloud: Lowers the price of GLM-5.2 Fast mode. 5. New York State will suspend the construction of new data centers consuming 50 megawatts or more for one year. 6. The head of Google's DeepMind called for the establishment of a global AI regulatory body led by the US. 7. According to the Financial Times: DeepSeek is considering a new round of financing, which would bring the company's valuation to approximately $71 billion. 8. Nvidia and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plan to cooperate in the field of AI data center cooling and power. 9. OpenAI plans to launch an AI smart speaker as its first hardware product, positioned as an AI companion assistant. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. South Korea plans to relax laws to help SK Hynix attract foreign investment to build wafer fabs. 2. The South Korean government plans to issue Nvidia GPUs to several companies participating in government AI projects. 3. UMC's Singapore wafer fab delivers its first batch of mass-produced silicon photonics wafers. 4. Report: SK Hynix accelerates mass production of HBM4 for Nvidia. 5. Samsung Electronics: Currently not considering the possibility of issuing American Depositary Receipts. 6. European Commission: Approves €659 million in German state aid for the construction of four new semiconductor factories. 7. Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd.'s sale of a controlling stake in Wuhan Xinxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was unconditionally approved. Other: 1. Lucid denied bankruptcy rumors, but its stock price still fell 16%. 2. The "Guidelines for Reusable Launch Vehicle Research Projects (Third Batch)" has been officially released.

July 15 - A Reuters Tankan survey showed that Japanese manufacturing confidence remained relatively optimistic in July (the Tankan Manufacturing Business Sentiment Index remained at 13), supported by robust semiconductor demand. However, non-manufacturing confidence (the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Business Sentiment Index fell from 32 to 25) declined due to the Middle East conflict, a weaker yen, and rising interest rates pushing up costs. Manufacturing companies reported a recovery in the semiconductor market (including memory-related demand), with orders for chip applications and AI server-related products also expanding rapidly. Orders for electronic components also generally increased. An executive at a precision machinery manufacturer stated, "Order volume and value are at unprecedented levels, and we are worried about not being able to keep up with production capacity." A services executive said, "Although signs of a resolution to the Middle East conflict are beginning to emerge, the situation has not yet recovered." Looking ahead, manufacturers expect confidence to remain stable, with the business sentiment index expected to rise slightly to 14 in October, while the non-manufacturing index is expected to remain at 25, as companies assess the impact of geopolitical risks and supply chain challenges.

1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% to 52,508.27 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,543.59 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 26,107.01 points. Goldman Sachs rose more than 9%, and Nvidia rose more than 4%, leading the Dow Jones. The Wind U.S. Tech Giants Index rose 0.97%, with Google rising nearly 2% and Facebook rising 0.66%. SpaceX fell more than 2%, and IBM's stock price fell more than 25% after issuing an earnings warning. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.11%, with WeRide rising more than 6% and Kingsoft Cloud falling more than 6%. 2. The U.S. crude oil futures contract closed up 2.16% at $79.83 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 2.21% to $85.14 per barrel. 3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,058.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 1.84% to $59.04 per ounce.

According to data from Statistics Korea, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 2.7% in June (up from 2.8% in May). The number of employed people increased by 63,000 year-on-year in June (up from a decrease of 40,000 year-on-year in May).

Japan's Reuters Tankan non-manufacturing business sentiment index for July was 25, down from 32 in the previous month.

Japan's Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Sentiment Index for July was 13, unchanged from the previous month.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reported that the number of confirmed Ebola cases has risen to 2,011, with 754 deaths.