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July 10th - Last month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) boosted its crude oil production to a record high. This powerfully demonstrates that Abu Dhabi has taken a bolder approach than any of its Persian Gulf neighbors in the face of supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report, the UAE's average daily production in June was 4.1 million barrels. This figure surpasses the peak production of 4 million barrels per day reached in 2020 during its brief price war with Saudi Arabia over OPEC+ policy. Abu Dhabi's aggressive strategy has become increasingly apparent since the outbreak of the conflict, ranging from utilizing its vast fleet to chartering more vessels controlled by South Korea's Sinokor Group (which currently operates the world's largest fleet of very large crude carriers). Many of these vessels operate in a "shadow" manner, turning off their digital transponders to transport crude oil out of the Persian Gulf undetected. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC at the end of April to escape the organization's production restrictions and pursue its expansion plans. This strong resumption of production largely occurred before the surge of merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz this week.

According to Iranian reports, flight operations at Mashhad Airport in Iran are currently unaffected.

The onshore yuan closed at 6.7784 against the US dollar at 16:30 on July 10, up 151 points from the previous trading day.

Goldman Sachs expects the South African Reserve Bank to keep interest rates unchanged in July, following dovish comments from the bank.

IEA Monthly Report: OPEC+ production is expected to increase by 5.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

IEA Monthly Report: Global demand fell by 4.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter.

The Hang Seng Index closed up 144.94 points, or 0.6%, at 24,175.12 on Friday, July 10; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed down 9.9 points, or 0.21%, at 4,721.66; the H-share Index closed up 41.9 points, or 0.52%, at 8,039.19; and the Red Chip Index closed up 26.93 points, or 0.7%, at 3,851.04.

On July 10th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Friday that it had lowered its forecast for Russian oil production due to attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine. In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on energy facilities, including refineries, in an attempt to contain Russia. In its monthly outlook, the IEA stated, "The continued attacks on refineries, storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure have supported a weaker production outlook, leading us to lower our Russian supply forecasts for this year and next by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 barrels per day, respectively, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day over the forecast period." The IEA projects Russian oil production to reach 8.9 million barrels per day this year and 8.8 million barrels per day in 2027, down from 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025. The agency noted that Russian crude oil production in June increased by 120,000 barrels per day from May to 8.86 million barrels per day, 900,000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota.

Escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran have clouded the outlook and could disrupt the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of an oil market surplus in 2027.

IEA Monthly Report: Non-OPEC production is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2027.

July 10 – The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that the recent escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran could overturn its forecast of a significant oversupply in the oil market next year. Global supply surged after the Strait of Hormuz reopened in June, but remains below pre-war levels. Last month, the US-Iran peace agreement facilitated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, providing some respite for the global oil market. The strait's de facto closure reduced daily crude oil flows by up to 14 million barrels during the peak of the largest oil supply crisis in history. The IEA said global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but is still 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The agency forecasts an increase of 7.5 million barrels per day in supply next year, but this depends on improved access to the Strait of Hormuz. "However, the escalation of hostilities on July 7-8 has cast a shadow over the outlook and could overturn the forecast of a market shift to oversupply next year," the agency said.

IEA Monthly Report: Global oil inventories rose for the first time in four months in June.

IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply is projected to be 860,000 barrels per day lower than demand in 2026 (previously projected to be 920,000 barrels per day lower).

On the afternoon of July 10, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President of the People's Republic of China, will meet with Pak Thae-song, member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, Vice Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, and Premier of the Cabinet, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Pak Thae-song is on an official visit to China.

IEA Monthly Report: Compared to the crude oil market, refinery operations and product supply responded more slowly to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June, leading to a tighter fuel market during the peak summer demand season.

IEA Monthly Report: We expect supply to increase by 7.5 million barrels per day and demand by 2 million barrels per day in 2027 if traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz improve.

IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June as flow in the Strait of Hormuz recovered, but it is still 9.4 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels.

IEA Monthly Report: Global oil supply is projected to increase by 7.5 million barrels per day in 2027.

IEA Monthly Report: Global production is about 9.4 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels.