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Futures News, May 19th - According to foreign media reports, Japanese rubber futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, supported by a weaker yen and tighter supply from Thailand, the world's leading rubber producer. The Thai Meteorological Department stated that heavy rainfall is expected in the country from May 19th to 21st, which will keep supply in producing areas tight. However, the agency also expects the weather disruptions to ease from May 22nd. Meanwhile, Tianfeng Futures in China pointed out that the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber plants in China has increased month-on-month, leading to a short-term increase in market supply.

On May 19th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated in its latest meeting minutes that a third consecutive rate hike would provide it with room to monitor how households and businesses are responding to the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has led to soaring fuel prices. The minutes indicated that "while uncertainty remains, financial conditions are likely to tighten to some extent following this decision." According to the minutes, committee members discussed whether to raise rates or hold them steady, with eight of the nine members deciding there was more reason to raise rates to 4.35%. The minutes showed that the rate hike "will give the Committee room to observe developments in the Middle East conflict and how households and businesses are responding." The Committee acknowledged that policy action cannot alter the "short-run trajectory" of inflation. Money markets expect the RBA to raise rates at least once more this year, with a greater than 50% probability of two hikes. After raising rates again two weeks ago, the RBA has completely reversed all of last year's accommodative policies.

On May 19th, Citigroup analyst Jin-Wook Kim stated that due to strong first-quarter GDP data and continued fiscal stimulus measures, the Bank of Korea is expected to raise its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 2.5%-2.7% at its policy meeting on May 28th. Kim also noted that considering the impact of rising oil prices, the Bank of Korea is expected to further raise its 2026 consumer inflation forecast from 2.2% to 2.6%-2.8%. Citigroup maintains its view that the Bank of Korea will raise interest rates four times, in July and October 2026, and January and April 2027.

According to a NewsNation White House reporter: U.S. Vice President Vance will hold a press conference at the White House at 1 p.m. local time on Tuesday.

On May 19th, Capital Economics economists stated that although the Japanese economy had accumulated solid growth momentum before the Iran war, GDP growth is expected to stagnate this quarter and next. Capital Economics economist Marcel Tiliant pointed out that first-quarter data showed both household spending and business investment increased quarter-on-quarter, with a significant increase in exports exceeding a smaller increase in imports, providing impetus for economic growth. However, despite market speculation that fiscal policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would become more accommodative, government consumption slowed quarter-on-quarter, highlighting that the supplementary budget announced last November had not had a substantial impact on government spending. Meanwhile, consumer confidence declined sharply, and the fuel price cap only temporarily curbed inflation. Tiliant added that even if the Japanese government compiles a new supplementary budget to fund gasoline subsidies, it will at best only stabilize consumer spending.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: Previously anticipated that long-term inflation expectations could get out of control.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: The committee had previously considered whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points or keep the rate at 4.10%.

Tencent Music (01698.HK) shares rose more than 5% after the company announced the completion of its acquisition of Himalaya.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: The Committee will take necessary measures to meet its inflation and employment targets.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: Most people believed that the risks to the inflation target had increased and were not confident that the 4.1% interest rate would be sufficient to offset these risks.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: The committee unanimously agreed that Australian economic growth is likely to be below potential for some time.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: Committee members expect inflation to return to target without further policy tightening.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: Eight members believed the case for raising interest rates was the strongest, while one member wanted to wait for more information.

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes: Regarding future policy decisions, the Committee unanimously agreed that monetary policy cannot alter the short-term inflation trend.

The main contract for 2-year Treasury bond futures (TS) remained unchanged, the main contract for 5-year Treasury bond futures (TF) rose 0.01%, the main contract for 10-year Treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.07%, and the main contract for 30-year Treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.12%.

As of 09:30 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.53%, while US natural gas futures rose 0.20%.

Tencent Wealth Management's current account + 7-day annualized yield ranges from a maximum of 1.4860% to a minimum of 0.7290%. WeChat Pay's 7-day annualized yield ranges from a maximum of 1.0210% to a minimum of 0.9920%. Alipay's Yu'ebao's 7-day annualized yield ranges from a maximum of 1.1690% to a minimum of 1.0010%.

Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Minoru Jonouchi: The government will respond flexibly while closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy, as well as the impact of rising prices on household and business activities.

Japanese Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister Minoru Shirou: We must be vigilant about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the economy.

Japanese Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister Minoru Shirou: The impact of government measures may support a moderate economic recovery.