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March 18th - Daiwa Securities estimates that if crude oil prices trade around $90 per barrel, Japan's net imports will increase by approximately 8.1 trillion yen. The estimates show this figure rises to 11.4 trillion yen at $100 per barrel and to 17.8 trillion yen if prices reach $120 per barrel. A widening trade deficit could further pressure the yen, leading to increased import costs and ultimately eroding corporate profits.
On March 18, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council held a regular press conference. According to Reuters, a large-scale US arms sale to Taiwan, including advanced interceptor missiles, is about to be submitted to President Trump for approval, and Trump may sign it after his visit to China. What is your comment on this? Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that we firmly oppose relevant countries selling weapons to Taiwan, and this position is consistent and clear. The US should adhere to the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiqués, handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan prudently, and take concrete actions to safeguard the stability of Sino-US relations and peace across the Taiwan Strait.
March 18th - Recently, several domestic airlines have raised fuel surcharges on international routes, with increases generally exceeding 50%, and some routes even doubling. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising international oil prices, airline cost pressures are being rapidly passed on to ticket prices. According to market sources, China Southern Airlines has also recently notified its agents of its plans to adjust fuel surcharges on international routes. For domestic routes, the next adjustment window for fuel surcharges is April 5th. Currently, the January 5th standard remains in effect: 10 yuan for routes under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for routes over 800 kilometers. Industry insiders generally expect that as oil prices continue to rise, more airlines may follow suit, further increasing travel costs for passengers.
Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: Overnight, international gold prices were mixed. London spot gold fluctuated narrowly, COMEX gold futures rose 0.18%, and SHFE gold fell 0.16%. The Federal Reserve will hold its March interest rate meeting early Thursday morning Beijing time. This meeting will focus on three key areas: 1. Whether monetary policy will shift. The meeting will release the latest dot plot. At the December meeting, officials were divided, with the median expectation being one rate cut (25 basis points) this year. The focus this time is whether further rate cuts are possible. 2. The Summary of Second Quarter Forecasts (SEP). Fed officials will make predictions on inflation and economic trends, especially the actual impact of the March oil price surge on inflation. 3. The Fed Chairman's post-meeting remarks. This is the first Fed meeting since the Middle East conflict. Facing rising oil prices, weak employment, and legal investigations, Chairman Powell's statements at the press conference are worth watching, especially how he assesses the "two-way risk" of the oil price surge triggered by the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth. Gold may experience increased volatility after the meeting; cautious trading is advised. 4. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved. Trump stated that most NATO allies have indicated their unwillingness to be involved in US military action against Iran, and that the US "does not need anyone's help." Israel stated that two senior Iranian officials have been "eliminated." 5. The US-Iran conflict remains the focus of gold trading. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended. Regardless of future inflation or stagflation expectations, gold's strategic allocation position will increase. Liquidity concerns have actually provided investors with an opportunity to buy and hold at lower prices. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)
According to NHK, the Japan-US summit will issue a joint statement agreeing to a second round of investment exceeding 11 trillion yen.
S&P Global: Middle East wars will exacerbate volatility for South Korean oil refining companies.
South Korean envoy: We have successfully avoided the worst-case scenario in the oil sector.
March 18 – The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference on March 18. The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress reviewed and approved this year's Government Work Report. How will the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office implement the Taiwan-related content in the Government Work Report? Spokesperson Chen Binhua stated that this year marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The Taiwan-related content in this year's Government Work Report comprehensively elaborates on the major policies, principles, positions, and objectives of current Taiwan-related work, and is of great guiding significance for carrying out this year's Taiwan-related work. With the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, my country's economic strength, scientific and technological strength, national defense strength, and overall national strength have reached new heights, and Chinese-style modernization has taken new and solid steps, laying a more solid foundation for advancing the great cause of national reunification. The implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan will undoubtedly provide broader development opportunities for Taiwan compatriots and enterprises.
Samsung Electronics: The TV market will see slight growth this year.
South Korean envoy: The UAE has pledged to prioritize South Korea as a primary supplier of crude oil.
South Korean envoy: South Korea will receive 18 million barrels of crude oil from the UAE and naphtha from the country.
Oil-themed LOFs on the exchange strengthened, with Southern Crude Oil LOF and Harvest Crude Oil LOF both exceeding 4%, and E Fund Crude Oil LOF rising more than 3%. Oil Fund LOFs, Petroleum LOFs, and Huabao Oil & Gas LOFs followed suit.
The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that the UAE's air defense systems are currently responding to missile and drone threats from Iran. The Ministry confirmed that the sounds heard were the result of air defense systems intercepting missiles and drones.
Samsung Electronics' foundry business head: Tesla (TSLA.O) chips will be produced by the end of 2027.
Samsung Electronics: Seeking to secure multi-year contracts with major customers.
On March 18th, UBS moved its forecast for another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike forward to May, from August. UBS Chief Economist George Tharenou stated that although this week's rate hike was based on a 5-4 vote, they are still moving forward their prediction for the timing of the hike. Governor Bullock's hawkish comments after the rate decision suggest that RBA staff are expected to recommend a rate hike at the next meeting in May. A similar divided vote is likely at the next meeting.
On March 18th, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Management's "Current Account +" was 1.5500%, and the lowest was 0.8670%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pay's "Lingqian Tong" was 1.1580%, and the lowest was 1.0210%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipay's "Yu'ebao" was 1.2000%, and the lowest was 1.0010%.
In a statement, the Israeli military urged people to evacuate a building in Beirut’s central Bashura neighborhood in preparation for an impending airstrike.
On March 18, the Supreme People's Court issued guidelines for handling civil cases involving minors. The guidelines clarify that in cases involving contracts where minors make in-game purchases or livestream donations on behalf of the parties, the courts should, based on the nature and content of the specific contract, fully consider the degree to which the contract is relevant to the minor's life, whether the minor can understand their actions and foresee the corresponding consequences, and factors such as the subject matter, quantity, price, or remuneration of the contract. A comprehensive judgment should be made to determine whether the contracting behavior is appropriate to the minor's age and intelligence, and to accurately determine the validity of the contract. Claims for restitution or compensation based on invalid contracts should be supported. Claims for damages should be determined based on the minor's age, intelligence, the contracting process, and the guardian's performance of guardianship duties, to ascertain the fault and corresponding responsibility of each party.
The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.9 earthquake struck Yecheng County, Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang, at 09:55 on March 18, with a focal depth of 17 kilometers.
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