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March 16 - Crude oil futures rose in early trading due to market concerns about supply disruptions. This followed Trump's announcement that the US had bombed military targets on Iran's Kharg Island and threatened to strike Iranian oil infrastructure if Iran did not allow tankers free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Rystad Energy stated, "The more worrying reality is that the worst may not be yet to come." Rystad Energy's analysis indicates that in a worst-case scenario, Middle Eastern crude oil production could fall to approximately 6 million barrels per day, a reduction of about 70% from pre-conflict baseline levels.

Israel Defense Forces: A missile launched from Iran has been detected heading towards Israeli territory. Defense systems are operational to intercept the threat.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Saudi Crown Prince and the President of the United Arab Emirates jointly stated that Iran's continued attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are a dangerous escalation that threatens regional security.

Market news: Samsung SDI has signed a 1.5 trillion won energy storage system battery agreement with a US company.

The British government announced that the Foreign Secretary will provide more than £5 million in emergency aid to support the Lebanese government's humanitarian efforts.

March 16th - As soaring oil prices fueled investor concerns about inflation and economic growth risks, the U.S. Treasury market has erased all of its year-to-date gains. A Bloomberg U.S. Treasury performance indicator has turned negative year-to-date after falling 1.7% since the end of February. Stagflation fears have pushed up yields, forcing Wall Street to lower its expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts over the next year. Morgan Stanley strategist Bradley Tian and others stated, "Energy-driven inflation and policy uncertainty continue to put pressure on long-term U.S. Treasuries." Bonds in the U.S., Japan, and Australia have all fallen, and a global bond index has also wiped out its year-to-date gains. Bob Savage, head of macro strategy at BNY Mellon, said, "Geopolitical uncertainty and increased cross-asset volatility are likely to persist in the near term until markets develop confidence that the conflict with Iran is stabilizing."

According to the Wall Street Journal, the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips warned US President Trump's officials that a war with Iran disrupting the Strait of Hormuz would exacerbate the energy crisis.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the oil industry warns that the energy crisis caused by the Trump administration is likely to worsen further.

On March 16, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations today (March 16) through a fixed-quantity, interest rate bidding process with multiple price levels, for a term of six months (182 days). Since 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repurchase agreements mature in March, this operation by the PBOC means that the amount of six-month outright reverse repurchase agreements renewed this month has been reduced by 100 billion yuan.

On March 16, Madagascar's interim head of state, Landrianirina, appointed Mamitiana Rajonarison as the new prime minister in the capital, Antananarivo, on the evening of March 15. Landrianirina expressed his hope that the new prime minister would quickly form a government, implement national reconstruction policies, and achieve tangible results. Rajonarison was a former officer in Madagascar's National Gendarmerie and became the director of the Financial Intelligence Bureau in April 2021, an agency primarily responsible for combating money laundering and terrorist financing.

On March 16, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba posted a message late on March 15 on his social media account, Telegram, reiterating that Iran will "demand reparations from its enemies" regardless of the circumstances. If the enemies refuse to pay, Iran will confiscate assets of equivalent value; if confiscation is not possible, Iran will destroy assets of equal value.

March 16 - According to a report by Iran's Fars News Agency on the evening of March 15, a spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that most of the missiles currently being launched by Iran were "produced 10 years ago," and many missiles produced by Iran after the "12-Day War" in June last year "have not yet been used," and many of Iran's missile arsenals "remain untouched."

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Prices today are still far below those during the Biden administration, when they were asking Iran for favors, haggling, and even bribing Iran to “perform better.”

Canadian Prime Minister Carney: I have arrived in London, England. The United Kingdom is one of Canada's oldest and most reliable partners.

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Pezehizian spoke by phone with French President Macron to discuss regional developments.

March 16th - A Financial Times article points out that this week will be a "super central bank week." While the interest rate decisions of these central banks are not expected to bring any surprises, the policy guidance accompanying these decisions will be closely watched given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The four major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan – will announce their decisions one after another on Thursday Beijing time. In addition, interest rate setters from Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland will also meet this week. With the exception of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the other central banks are likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the war in Iran has increased the likelihood of a rate hike later this year. The interest rate market has responded hawkishly to the impending energy price shock; expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been erased, replaced by the possibility of a rate hike by the latter. Expectations for a rate hike by the European Central Bank this year have also increased further. Since the start of the war, the Bank of Japan's interest rate path has remained relatively unchanged.

Downing Street: British Prime Minister Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Carney discussed the situation in the Middle East, including the impact of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz on international shipping.

Downing Street: Leaders discussed the current situation in the Middle East and the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to end the disruption to global shipping.