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June 28 - According to foreign media reports on the 27th, citing official Iranian data, Irans inflation rate in June rose sharply to 88.6% year-on-year, affected by the Middle East conflict.On June 28, Iran launched a drone strike on Bahrain on Saturday, while simultaneously attacking a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, possibly in response to a US nighttime airstrike. The attacks in the Persian Gulf once again demonstrate that even with a provisional agreement between Iran and the US attempting to reach a final ceasefire, the Iran-Iraq war could still spiral out of control. This comes after the US Central Command stated that it launched strikes against Iran on June 26 in response to the attack on a merchant ship. Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization announced on Saturday that it would widen the strait near Oman to allow two-way passage. This move could reignite tensions with Tehran, which views the strait as a key bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations with the US.On June 28, CNBC reported that an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by artillery fire on Saturday, the latest development in escalating tensions between the United States and Iran after the two sides reached a provisional agreement aimed at ending hostilities in the region. The UKs Maritime Trade Action Centre stated that a vessel in the strait was hit by an "unidentified flying object," sustaining damage, but the crew was reportedly unharmed. Bahrain also condemned Irans drone attack on Saturday, calling it a "blatant violation" of its sovereignty. These new attacks come as the US and Iran were supposed to be in the midst of a 60-day ceasefire negotiation, discussing ending the war. However, both countries have accused the other of violating the terms of the agreement.Domestic News: 1. my country achieves significant breakthrough in the research and development of superconducting magnets for nuclear fusion reactors. 2. Wuhan Optics Valley introduces a package of new policies for science and technology finance, aiming to have over 100 listed companies. 3. National Bureau of Statistics: Industrial enterprise profits increased by 18.8% year-on-year in the first five months, with the electronics industry contributing over 40%. 4. Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized during his research visit to Zhejiang the need to strengthen the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation. International News: 1. US Secretary of State Rubio: Pushing for Trumps visit to India early next year. 2. The US government may lift restrictions on the Anthropic Fable 5 model as early as next week. 3. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel: Price pressures may remain stronger than expected, and further interest rate hikes are anticipated. 4. A magnitude 6 earthquake struck the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan, with tremors felt in the capital, Kabul. 5. Middle East Situation—① Israeli Army Radio: The Israeli army will reduce its forces in southern Lebanon and withdraw several combat brigades. ② Joint Maritime Information Center: The maritime security threat level in the Taiwan Strait has been raised from "moderate" to "high". ③ Following the Iranian Revolutionary Guards strikes on vessels violating regulations, more ships are seeking permission from Iran. ④ After the framework agreement between Lebanon, Israel, and the US, the Israeli military launched another attack on southern Lebanon. ⑤ Hezbollah: The Israel-Lebanon framework agreement is invalid, and it refuses to link Israeli troop withdrawal with Hezbollahs disarmament. On June 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel warned that even if a US-Iran peace agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz, price pressures could still be stronger than expected. Schnabel stated on Saturday that "food, goods, and services inflation face upside risks," and that energy price shocks could spread to a wider range of sectors. While welcoming the recent drop in energy prices due to the prospect of a US-Iran peace agreement, she warned that a ceasefire should not be a reason for complacency. She stated, "Uncertainty remains high, but the announced peace agreement reduces the likelihood of a negative scenario." Nevertheless, oil prices are expected to remain high because the Strait of Hormuz is only gradually reopening. Schnabel, considered the most hawkish member of the Governing Council, reiterated that "the ECB expects further interest rate hikes to bring inflation back to 2% in the medium term." She noted that consumer inflation expectations have risen. However, there are no signs of wage pressures yet.

Volatility subsides around 101.80 as focus shifts to US S&P PMI in US Dollar Index Price Analysis

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 14:03

US Dollar Index.png 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has prolonged its correction after falling below immediate support at 101.80 during the Asian session. Following the release of more-than-anticipated Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 14 and a lackluster Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (April), the USD Index fluctuated erratically on Thursday.

 

The US Department of Labor reported that unemployment claims exceeded expectations for the eleventh consecutive week. The economic data revealed that 245K unemployed people filed for unemployment benefits, exceeding both the consensus estimate and the previous figure of 240K.

 

Due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to increase interest rates, labor market conditions are undeniably and persistently deteriorating. Despite this, the market continues to anticipate a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike. According to CME Fedwatch, over 85 percent of probabilities favor interest rates above 5 percent.

 

In the interim, three consecutive bearish trading sessions on the S&P 500 suggest that investors have supported the risk aversion theme. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped below 3.54 percent. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

On a two-hour time frame, the USD Index is consolidating in a wide range between 101.63 and 102.23, indicating the absence of a significant catalyst. After the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States, a power-pack action is anticipated. It is anticipated that the Manufacturing PMI will register 49.0, a decrease from the previous release of 49.9. The Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.5 from the previously reported 52.6.

 

At 101.85, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) intersects with the asset price, indicating a significant decrease in volatility.

 

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating that investors are waiting for a decisive catalyst.

 

If the asset breaks decisively above the April 17 high of 102.23, investors will push the asset toward the April 10 and March 24 potential resistance levels of 102.76 and 103.36, respectively.

 

Alternately, a breach of the April 5 low of 101.41 would cause the asset to decline to the April 14 low of 100.78. A subsequent decline will reveal psychological support of $100 for the asset.


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