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July 7 – The World Bank released its latest China Economic Brief in Beijing on July 7. The report states that despite facing strong supply and weak demand, as well as global energy supply shocks, Chinas economic growth has remained generally resilient. The report projects Chinas economy to grow by 4.4% in 2026, unchanged from the previous brief released in December last year.July 7 – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Minoru Jonouchi stated that media reports claiming the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was attempting to lower interest rates were completely inaccurate. At a regular press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Jonouchi said, “Reports that the government is encouraging low interest rates as part of its fiscal expansion policy are baseless. If our intentions have not been accurately conveyed, we will work harder to improve understanding.” Jonouchi’s remarks come as financial markets closely watch how Takaichi will implement her economic strategy through large-scale investment without exacerbating the already heavy debt burden. Last month, Jonouchi represented the Japanese government at a Bank of Japan board meeting, where policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.July 7th - It was learned today that the State Administration for Market Regulation has decided to conduct a centralized review of national metrological technical specifications from July to September. Through periodic reviews and dynamic monitoring, the review aims to promote the upgrading and optimization of metrological technical specifications. The centralized review covers currently effective national metrological technical specifications, focusing on issues such as outdated specifications, lagging content, and insufficient adaptability. It will conduct a thorough review from four dimensions: legality and compliance, scientific validity, applicability, and coordination. The review will benchmark against domestic regulations and standards and advanced international metrological technologies to comprehensively identify shortcomings and weaknesses in the system. Participating units are encouraged to submit optimization suggestions, and exemplary national metrological technical specifications will be selected to guide improvements in the quality and supply capacity of metrological technical specifications.Sources indicate that USD/KRW foreign exchange trading related to the SK Hynix ADR listing is expected to take place around July 15.July 7th - Abhijit Suria, senior Asia-Pacific economist at Capital Economics, stated that the slowdown in Japanese wage growth in May is unlikely to prevent the Bank of Japan from further interest rate hikes. He pointed out that preliminary data released earlier showed that the growth rate of Japanese labor cash income slowed to 3.2% in May from 3.6% in April. Suria said, "Despite the recent slowdown, various indicators of basic wage growth remain well above the 2025 average and are still high relative to historical levels." He added, "We believe that todays data is unlikely to change the Bank of Japans fundamental assessment that the labor market remains tight." Capital Economics maintains its view that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 2% by the end of 2027.

Even as the BoJ vs. Fed Difference Remains in the Spotlight, USD/JPY Tracks Below 134.00 on Lackluster Yields

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 14:02

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As Monday begins in Tokyo, USD/JPY falls from its intraday high and stabilizes around 133.80. As a consequence, the Yen pair is unable to extend its previous day's gains due to lax market conditions preceding this week's key data/events. In addition to a paucity of significant data or events, USD/JPY traders have recently struggled with inconsistent triggers and sluggish returns.

 

The previous day, USD/JPY reached its highest level in a week as primarily positive US data dampened expectations for a policy shift and rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Previously, the USD/JPY pair increased due to hawkish Fed discussions. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), stated that "recent developments are consistent with one more rate hike." According to Reuters, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed this topic and stated that additional rate hikes are necessary because the Fed has not made significant progress toward its inflation objective. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he still needs to examine the statistics. The lawmaker said, "However, let's keep in mind that we've raised a lot of money; some of the delay may be reflected in today's retail sales number."

 

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its strength due to the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, who supports the Japanese central bank's easy-money policy.

 

Recent geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, as well as China's desire to collaborate with Russia to enhance regional and global security, have weighed on the USD/JPY pair and agitated the market.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction amidst these wagers following Wall Street's pessimistic close, as bond yields remain neutral despite weekly gains.

 

The preliminary readings of the US PMIs for April and the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be crucial to monitor going forward. The previously mentioned risk factors and central banker comments are also significant.