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U.S. Redbook retail sales annualized for the week ending April 3 were 7.6%, compared to 6.9% previously.April 7th - U.S. business equipment orders rebounded in February, indicating that companies are proceeding with investment plans ahead of the potential conflict with Iran. Data released Tuesday by the U.S. Commerce Department showed that orders for non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) rose 0.6% in February, compared to economists median forecast of a 0.5% increase. Orders for all durable goods fell 1.4%, primarily reflecting a decrease in aircraft orders. Boeing stated that it received fewer aircraft orders in February compared to the previous month. The durable goods report showed increases in orders for computers, automobiles, metals, and machinery. Economists expect business investment to remain robust this year as companies continue to invest in artificial intelligence and take advantage of more favorable tax terms. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how cautious companies will become due to the potential conflict with Iran.On April 7th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the impact of the Iran war will push up overall inflation, and the resulting inflationary factors will be directly reflected in overall inflation data. Taking energy factors into account, the inflation rate should be around 2.75%. The current focus is on overall inflation; core inflation has not changed significantly. Tariffs remain an important factor in inflation, and overall inflation is expected to slow later this year. Monetary policy is currently in a favorable position, and a wait-and-see approach is appropriate. Interest rates are currently at a perfectly appropriate level and can be adjusted if necessary. The labor market situation is quite complex, characterized by low hiring and low layoffs.Federal Reserves Williams: I havent spoken with Warsh recently.Federal Reserves Williams: Warsh has a deep understanding of the Feds mission.

Even as the BoJ vs. Fed Difference Remains in the Spotlight, USD/JPY Tracks Below 134.00 on Lackluster Yields

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 14:02

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As Monday begins in Tokyo, USD/JPY falls from its intraday high and stabilizes around 133.80. As a consequence, the Yen pair is unable to extend its previous day's gains due to lax market conditions preceding this week's key data/events. In addition to a paucity of significant data or events, USD/JPY traders have recently struggled with inconsistent triggers and sluggish returns.

 

The previous day, USD/JPY reached its highest level in a week as primarily positive US data dampened expectations for a policy shift and rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Previously, the USD/JPY pair increased due to hawkish Fed discussions. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), stated that "recent developments are consistent with one more rate hike." According to Reuters, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed this topic and stated that additional rate hikes are necessary because the Fed has not made significant progress toward its inflation objective. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he still needs to examine the statistics. The lawmaker said, "However, let's keep in mind that we've raised a lot of money; some of the delay may be reflected in today's retail sales number."

 

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its strength due to the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, who supports the Japanese central bank's easy-money policy.

 

Recent geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, as well as China's desire to collaborate with Russia to enhance regional and global security, have weighed on the USD/JPY pair and agitated the market.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction amidst these wagers following Wall Street's pessimistic close, as bond yields remain neutral despite weekly gains.

 

The preliminary readings of the US PMIs for April and the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be crucial to monitor going forward. The previously mentioned risk factors and central banker comments are also significant.


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