Real-time News

Market news: The European Union is negotiating to join a US-led coalition to secure technology supply chains.

The U.S. Senate confirmed that Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, will serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until the end of June, crude oil prices will be $20 per barrel higher than the current forecast assuming it reopens at the end of May.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report: Iran is currently expected to have to reduce oil production, partly due to the US blockade.

On May 13th, the EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, noting that Middle Eastern oil production disruptions have significantly worsened since April. Our assessment is that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut down 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production in April. This report anticipates the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed until the end of May, with shipping volumes beginning to recover in June. However, oil shipments through the strait are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels until later this year, and we expect some Middle Eastern oil production to remain disrupted during this period. The production disruptions have led to a significant reduction in oil inventories, particularly in May and June, which will limit downward pressure on oil prices—even after strait traffic increases. Because this month we assume a later reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer recovery period for shut-down oil production, we forecast a 2.6 million bpd reduction in global oil inventories this year, compared to the 300,000 bpd reduction predicted in the April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

According to the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX and Google are in talks to explore in-orbit data centers.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report projects natural gas prices at $3.30 per barrel in 2027, down from a previous forecast of $3.73 per barrel.

U.S. EIA forecast for next-year natural gas production in May is 115 billion cubic feet per day, compared to 112.6 billion cubic feet per day previously.

The U.S. EIA forecast for natural gas production in May was 110.6 billion cubic feet per day, compared to 109.6 billion cubic feet per day previously.

Market news: The EU has banned imports of animal and meat products from Brazil.

Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine attacked a gas facility in Russia’s Orenburg region, more than 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine.

Petrobras CEO: Petrobras can refine any Mexican oil production in Mexico.

The CEO of Petrobras said: "The Mexican part of the Gulf of Mexico is undeveloped, and cooperation with Pemex could bring new exploration opportunities."

Petrobras CEO: Will focus on Venezuela and Mexico for expansion.

The Central Bank of Russia reported that foreign exchange sales in the Russian market doubled to $29.8 billion in April due to rising global oil prices.

The German DAX 30 index closed down 404.34 points, or 1.66%, at 23,951.07 on Tuesday, May 12; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 10.94 points, or 0.11%, at 10,258.49 on Tuesday, May 12; and the French CAC 40 index closed down 76.46 points, or 0.95%, at 7,979.92 on Tuesday, May 12; European The Stoxx 50 index closed down 83.89 points, or 1.42%, at 5811.56 on Tuesday, May 12; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed down 289.00 points, or 1.62%, at 17563.50 on Tuesday, May 12; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 679.45 points, or 1.37%, at 48985.50 on Tuesday, May 12.

The bid-to-cover ratio for the 1-year U.S. Treasury bond auction on May 12 was 3.41, compared to 3.21 previously.