Real-time News

Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, March 20, 2026

Deutsche Bank: This new benchmark (forecast) carries two-way risks. If tensions in the Middle East ease quickly, the ECB may not raise rates at all. Alternatively, if there is a more prolonged disruption to energy supplies, the 2.50% rate may simply be a transitional phase towards a clearly tightening stance.

March 20th Futures News: On March 20th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 165,075 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 17,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 360 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 4,160 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 36,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 57,880 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 43,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.

March 20th - Rising oil prices are a headache for overseas importers, but they may be shifting the burden onto US assets. Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, global oil import costs have increased, and the currencies of most major economies have been impacted against the US dollar. This double whammy creates a situation where, with a stronger dollar and soaring oil prices, overseas countries and companies may ultimately have to sell off their holdings of US stocks and bonds to pay for the suddenly more expensive oil. This is a risk worth monitoring, especially given the growing share of the US market held by foreign countries and governments. Bridget Kurana, a portfolio manager at Wellington Management, stated that so far, foreign investors haven't needed to liquidate US assets to finance higher energy costs. However, if oil prices remain high, these countries (such as Japan and South Korea) may need to reduce their holdings of US stocks and bonds to raise funds for energy imports.

Deutsche Bank: It expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, whereas its previous forecast was to keep rates unchanged in 2026.

According to Futures News on March 20, as of 15:00 Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.73% and spot palladium rose 0.82%.

Germany's PPI fell 3.3% year-on-year in February, compared with an expected decline of 2.70% and a previous decline of 3.00%.

The chart shows that at 22:00 Beijing time on March 20, there will be large foreign exchange options contracts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD expiring, including four contracts with strike prices exceeding 1 billion. Please manage your risks.

ECB Governing Council member Eskeriva: Measures must "continue for the time required, but not exceed the time required."

ECB Governing Council member Eskeriva: "It is currently difficult to accurately assess the impact of rising energy prices."

ECB Governing Council member Eskeriva: The situation is very uncertain and volatile, and we need to continue to assess a large amount of information.

ECB Governing Council member Eskeriva: The ECB makes decisions based on medium-term inflation trends. Sometimes the situation will ease on its own and does not necessarily lead to interest rate adjustments.

On March 20, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced in a recent statement that the Iranian military is on high alert and eager to deliver a "heavy blow" to US warships in actual combat. Regarding the US claim that it has destroyed the Iranian navy, the IRGC stated that this is a lie and questioned, "If the US is truly so confident, why doesn't it dare to order its aircraft carriers to enter the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea?"

On March 20th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel stated that if the war with Iran leads to further price pressures, the ECB will need to consider raising interest rates as early as next month. "As things stand, it is conceivable that the medium-term inflation outlook could worsen, and inflation expectations could continue to rise, which means a more stringent monetary policy stance may be necessary," he said on Friday. The Bundesbank president added, "More reliable data on this is expected before the ECB Governing Council meeting in six weeks." He recalled the last price surge triggered by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, saying that experience "will play a significant role in such situations," although the ECB now finds itself in a more advantageous position.

HSBC lowered its price target for Tesla (TSLA.O) from $133 to $119.

ECB Governing Council member Mueller: Inflation rate may be slightly higher.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has approved fuel giants to coordinate under certain conditions to ensure fuel supply; however, the sharing of price information or the reaching of price agreements among fuel suppliers has not been authorized or approved.

On March 20th, Jussi Hiljanen, Chief Interest Rate Strategist at Nordea Bank, stated in a report that a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike is a risk, but June is a more likely date if the Middle East conflict continues. He expects market expectations for an ECB rate hike to remain tilted towards further upward revisions, which would push up the front of the German bond yield curve. However, for a rate hike to occur in April, energy prices need to remain at current levels (or higher), market inflation expectations need to rise further, and the consumer inflation expectations survey at the end of April needs to show a significant rebound. Nordea Bank predicts that the two-year German bond yield will rise from Thursday's closing level of 2.585% to around 2.70%-2.80% over the next three months.