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July 15th - The Japanese government's push for pension funds and individual investors to increase their allocation to the domestic market is seen as a potential long-term boost to Japanese bonds and the yen. However, analysts believe that unless the direction of fiscal and monetary policies changes, it is unlikely to have a significant impact in the short term. Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen, stated that fiscal policy and the path of interest rate hikes still need further clarification. The Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases, continued increases in government bond issuance, and the re-establishment of term premiums will continue to dominate the market outlook. Strategists at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, including Koichi Sugisaki, stated that pension funds' purchases of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds may not increase as significantly as the market initially expected. They believe that the Japanese government's initiative is more likely aimed at encouraging increased domestic investment across the entire financial system rather than specifically guiding funds into government bonds. They stated, "Therefore, from the perspective of the domestic bond market, this announcement is more like verbal intervention, its main function being to keep the risk of capital outflows in the market's view."

July 15th Futures News: 1. International oil prices have risen by more than 11% in just two trading days this week, the largest two-day percentage increase since mid-March. As of July 14th, WTI crude oil futures for the first month rose by $7.93 per barrel, an increase of 11.10%; Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose by $8.72 per barrel, an increase of 11.47%. Shipping activity in the Gulf region has slowed significantly as risks continue to escalate. Shipping data shows that from July 11th to 13th, confirmed passage of ships carrying commodities fell to 11 per day, compared to 30 per day from July 1st to 10th. 2. Deutsche Bank believes that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with Trump's renewed hardline rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily increase in Brent crude oil on the 13th was the largest since 2020, reigniting concerns about stagflation and pushing up interest rate expectations and global bond yields. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical risks have also contributed to this situation.

On July 15th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, enterprises placed greater emphasis on research and development innovation, continuously increasing investment in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In terms of proportion, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.

On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the Taiwanese military held its first "joint defense exercise" this week, simulating "threat scenarios such as detecting enemy ships setting sail and entering territorial waters," in order to respond to potential threats. What is your comment on this? Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that the DPP authorities' attempt to seek "independence" through force, escalating cross-strait confrontation, is the main culprit for the tense and unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait. Faced with the powerful People's Liberation Army, no matter how many exercises the DPP authorities conduct, it is all posturing and futile. It cannot change the inevitable defeat of "Taiwan independence," nor can it stop the historical trend of the inevitable reunification of the motherland.

Barclays raised its price target for Goldman Sachs from $1,048 to $1,245.

Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: US inflation data fell short of expectations, easing concerns about interest rate hikes. Overnight, London spot gold prices fluctuated and strengthened, with COMEX July gold futures closing up 1.6% and SHFE gold up 0.89%. 1. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from May's 4.2% increase; June core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. This further delayed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, weakening the dollar and pushing gold prices higher. However, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains, and oil prices and inflation stickiness may lead to fluctuations in July data. Last night, Warsh made his congressional debut, stating that even with Trump's criticism, he would act according to the data, and the June CPI slowdown does not mean the inflation "mission is accomplished." 2. Overall, gold prices have been mainly weak and corrective, influenced by geopolitical disturbances, recurring inflation, and Warsh's hawkish stance. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, and caution is still advised.

On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. According to reports, Zhang Xue, chairman of "Zhang Xue Motorcycle," stated in an interview that she very much wants to open a store in Taiwan, no later than next year. Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family, and we are willing to share high-quality mainland products with our Taiwanese compatriots. We also support two-way investment and win-win cooperation between enterprises on both sides of the Strait, and hope that industries on both sides will fully leverage their respective advantages, deepen exchanges and cooperation, better serve the people on both sides of the Strait, and enable people on both sides to buy and use high-quality, reasonably priced products.

According to Al Jazeera, the pro-Iranian paramilitary group Hezbollah in Iraq has warned that it will respond if the enemy launches a "new war" against Iran.

On July 15th, Mao Shengyong, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China's GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of this year, calculated at constant prices, meeting the expected growth target for the whole year. In terms of incremental growth, the economic increase in the first half of the year reached 3.6 trillion yuan, the largest increase in the same period in the past five years. For a super-large economy like China, achieving a 4.7% year-on-year growth rate is still quite good. Mao Shengyong emphasized that although the growth rate slowed down in the second quarter, the economy is operating stably, and the fundamentals of its development towards innovation and improvement remain unchanged. In particular, since the second quarter, some new changes have emerged in the global economy. International institutions have lowered their full-year economic growth forecasts for most major economies, but raised their forecasts for China's full-year economic growth, indicating that international institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy.

July 15th - According to the latest data released by the Shenzhen Green Electricity and Green Certificate Service Center on the 14th, from November 2023 to May 2026, the center has served local Shenzhen enterprises with a cumulative transaction volume of 50.303 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity and green certificates.

On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the so-called "non-red supply chain" is a political manipulation by certain countries based on ideological lines. It violates economic and market laws, undermines global economic stability, disrupts normal international trade, and harms Taiwan's economic development. Driven by their pro-independence nature, the DPP authorities have followed suit, actively cooperating with this movement. On the one hand, they have vehemently obstructed and restricted cross-strait economic and trade cooperation; on the other hand, they have groveled before external forces, selling out Taiwan's advantageous industries and surrendering its autonomy in economic development. However, their actions have only resulted in more unscrupulous exploitation and plunder by their "foreign masters," harming the interests and future of Taiwanese businesses and people. The DPP authorities' obstinate push for so-called "decoupling and severing of cross-strait supply chains" is reckless and will only backfire.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the "enemy" should have anticipated that other oil and gas export routes "serving the interests of the United States and its allies" would be shut down.

July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, by location of business, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 21,550.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,321.6 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%. In June, urban retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,684.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; rural retail sales of consumer goods reached 584.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%. By consumption type, in the first half of the year, retail sales of goods reached 22,046.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; catering revenue reached 2,825.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%. In June, retail sales of goods reached 3,792.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; catering revenue reached 476.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%. By retail format, in the first half of the year, among retail enterprises above the designated size, convenience stores and supermarkets saw year-on-year increases of 6.6% and 3.8% respectively; specialty stores, department stores, and brand specialty stores saw decreases of 1.5%, 2.1%, and 8.7% respectively.

July 15th - The national average urban surveyed unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 5.2%. In June, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for local registered laborers was 5.0%; the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant workers was 4.9%, of which the surveyed unemployment rate for migrant agricultural laborers was 4.8%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The national average weekly working hours for employees in enterprises was 48.2 hours. At the end of the second quarter, the total number of rural migrant workers was 192.27 million, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, private fixed asset investment fell by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 0.37% in June.

July 15th - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, by industry, investment in the primary sector reached 460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; investment in the secondary sector reached 8.312 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%; and investment in the tertiary sector reached 13.8649 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%. Industrial investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, investment in mining increased by 5.9%, investment in manufacturing decreased by 1.2%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased by 2.7%. Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. Among them, investment in information transmission increased by 25.6%, investment in water transportation increased by 19.8%, and investment in air transportation increased by 11.0%.