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Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman: Pershing Square America has recently added Microsoft (MSFT.O) to its core holdings.

On May 15th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released preliminary figures for my country's balance of payments for the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, my country's current account surplus was RMB 1,282.1 billion, including a goods trade surplus of RMB 1,721.2 billion, a services trade deficit of RMB 413.9 billion, a primary income deficit of RMB 52 billion, and a secondary income surplus of RMB 26.8 billion. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) showed a deficit of RMB 1,282.1 billion, with net inflows of direct investment into China. In US dollar terms, in the first quarter of 2026, my country's current account surplus was USD 184.1 billion, including a goods trade surplus of USD 247.4 billion, a services trade deficit of USD 59.6 billion, a primary income deficit of USD 7.5 billion, and a secondary income surplus of USD 3.9 billion. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) showed a deficit of USD 184.1 billion.

Fitch Ratings: Europe’s energy mix makes it vulnerable to a potential conflict with Iran.

Market news: The UAE attempted to coordinate with Saudi Arabia on actions against Iran, but was unsuccessful.

Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose slightly in pre-market trading, narrowing their losses to 0.06% after Bill Ackman said he would disclose a new position in the company later on Friday.

On May 15th, China Eastern Airlines reported that in April 2026, its passenger capacity (measured by available seat kilometers) increased by 0.84% year-on-year; passenger traffic (measured by passenger kilometers) increased by 3.79% year-on-year; and the load factor was 87.87%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points year-on-year. Cargo and mail traffic (measured by cargo and mail ton-kilometers) increased by 19.10% year-on-year in April 2026.

India's Trade Secretary: The gold import quota agreement with the UAE has not had a significant impact on the overall gold import bill.

The BRICS chair issued a statement expressing serious concern over unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures that are inconsistent with WTO rules.

BRICS Chair's Statement: Some members have differing views on the situation in the Middle East.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on May 15th, pickup truck production and sales showed a spring-like surge, with exports performing exceptionally well in April. In April 2026, the pickup truck market sold 59,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.8%, reaching the highest monthly level in nearly five years. From January to April, sales reached 220,000 units, an increase of 6.7%. Pickup truck production in April 2026 was 59,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; from January to April, pickup truck production reached 221,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%.

On May 15th, Nomura Securities stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is inclined to raise interest rates in June, partly to address the potential upside risk (to inflation) from further yen depreciation. However, several economists in a recent Reuters survey believe the BOJ may choose to remain on hold until the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer, as the negative impact of the conflict on the Japanese economy may be far greater than currently anticipated. The situation is very delicate and requires careful consideration, but the BOJ can only blame itself. Over the past year, they have had countless opportunities to raise rates but failed to seize them. Now, with the US-Iran war continuing to escalate and showing no signs of abating, they have been forced into a very difficult position.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman: We will disclose our new position in Microsoft (MSFT.O) in our 13F filing later today.

May 15th - Living on the outskirts of the city, limited bus routes, and expensive taxis pose a significant transportation challenge for many. Recently, in Haikou, Hainan, a new type of "micro-bus" that can be booked via mobile phone has officially begun regular operation. The "micro-bus" has no fixed routes and doesn't stop at every station. Passengers simply place their orders in advance through a mini-program and board directly at the designated stop, receiving point-to-point service at the same price as a regular bus fare. The operating area map shows numerous stops in areas on the outskirts of Haikou, such as Meilan International Airport and Mission Hills, many of which are inaccessible by traditional public transportation.

May 15th - Investors are concerned that if British Prime Minister Starmer is forced to step down, a more left-leaning Labour leader may take over, potentially increasing public borrowing. This would put further pressure on the UK's already fragile fiscal situation and impact bond and foreign exchange markets. Henry Cook, senior European economist at MUFG Bank, stated, "The prospect of a potentially turbulent leadership change, coupled with the challenging fiscal environment expected before autumn, could dampen market sentiment. We believe the risks to the UK economic outlook are clearly skewed to the downside."

On May 15th, Hopson Development Holdings Limited (00754.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that for the four months ended April 30, 2026, the total contracted sales amount of the Group and its joint ventures and associates was approximately RMB2.053 billion; of which property contracted sales were approximately RMB1.741 billion and decoration contracted sales were approximately RMB312 million. For the four months ended April 30, 2026, the contracted sales area of properties of the Group and its joint ventures and associates was approximately 111,276 square meters, and the average contracted sales price was approximately RMB15,640 per square meter.

On May 15th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported the following warehouse receipts and changes: 1. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 106,941 tons, an increase of 3,161 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 511,825 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Pulp warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 207,875 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Pulp mill warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 5. International copper futures warehouse receipts: 14,921 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 6. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 53,530 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 7. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 8. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 78,513 tons, an increase of 2,485 tons compared to the previous trading day; 9. Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts totaled 70,469 tons, an increase of 236 tons from the previous trading day; 10. Silver futures warehouse receipts totaled 898,147 kg, an increase of 21,151 kg from the previous trading day; 11. Copper futures warehouse receipts totaled 98,899 tons, an increase of 1,888 tons from the previous trading day; 12. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts totaled 138,410 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from the previous trading day; 13. TSR20 rubber futures warehouse receipts totaled 35,583 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 14. Lead futures warehouse receipts totaled 67,325 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day; 15. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts totaled 478,369 tons, an increase of 5,896 tons from the previous trading day; 16. Butadiene rubber futures warehouse receipts totaled 33,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous trading day; 17. Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts totaled 619,269 tons, a decrease of 597 tons from the previous trading day; 18. Petroleum asphalt plant warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 31,220 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 19. Petroleum asphalt warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 21,120 tons, a decrease of 3,080 tons from the previous trading day; 20. Tin futures warehouse receipts totaled 9,183 tons, an increase of 161 tons from the previous trading day; 21. Rebar warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 95,665 tons, an increase of 894 tons from the previous trading day; 22. Gold futures warehouse receipts totaled 110,673 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day; 23. Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 2,040 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous trading day.

On May 15th, Commonwealth Bank of Australia foreign exchange strategist Carol Kong stated, "This week's inflation data will certainly not be welcomed by FOMC officials, including incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh." The US Senate on Wednesday approved Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman; the 56-year-old lawyer and financier will helm the Fed. Kong added, "We expect the FOMC will have to begin its rate hike cycle starting this December, and we currently anticipate three rate hikes in this cycle."

The onshore yuan closed at 6.8052 against the US dollar at 16:30 on May 15, down 190 points from the previous trading day.

Hong Kong's GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 2.9%, compared to 2.90% previously.

Hong Kong's final GDP annualized rate for the first quarter was 5.9%, below the expected 5.90% and the previous value of 5.90%.