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January 21st - Market concerns about a significant increase in Japanese government spending and a resurgence of inflation are causing a break in the traditional correlation between the yen and the dollar and government bond yields, prompting HSBC strategists to change their forecasts for the yen's performance in the coming months. HSBC analysts believe there are two catalysts for the current "sudden revaluation" of the yen: first, a substantial rise in Japanese inflation starting in 2022; and second, Sanae Takashi's inauguration as president in October. HSBC now predicts the yen will fall to 160 yen to the dollar by mid-year, rather than strengthening to 150 yen as previously expected. Strategists point out that complicating matters is the real possibility that Japanese authorities might intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen if it falls below 160. Analysts believe several potential factors could halt the yen's recent decline—the most plausible of which (such as a slowdown in the US economy) is beyond the control of Japanese policymakers.

Pan American Silver (PAAS.O): Equity silver production is projected to be between 25 million and 27 million ounces in 2026, and equity gold production is projected to be between 700,000 and 750,000 ounces in 2026.

Netflix (NFLX.O) CFO: The company is seeing a range of very attractive investment opportunities and plans to "slightly" increase spending this year. This year's spending growth will be higher than in 2025.

According to US media MS NOW, US Vice President Vance will hold a roundtable meeting with leaders from various sectors in Minneapolis.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): The average realized price of copper in 2025 is $4.57/lb, and the average realized price of aluminum is $3,318/ton.

Conflict Situation: 1. Multiple areas in Ukraine were hit by airstrikes, with heating and power outages occurring in Kyiv and other areas. 2. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces attacked Ukrainian military, energy, and transportation facilities last night. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky: The Russian attack used a large number of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as more than 300 attack drones. Repelling Tuesday's Russian airstrikes caused approximately €8 million in damage to Ukraine. 4. Electricity company DTEK: The Russian attack caused power outages for more than 335,000 residents in Kyiv. Power has been restored to 162,000 households. Other Situations: 1. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Russia supports the resumption of direct flights with the United States. No documents have been received regarding the recent talks between the United States and Europe on the Ukraine issue. No concrete contact has been made with the United States regarding extending the New START Treaty or reaching a new agreement. 2. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We have decided to provide Ukraine with a loan of €90 billion over the next two years. We have decided to permanently freeze Russian assets but retain the right to use them. 3. International Atomic Energy Agency: The Chernobyl nuclear power plant has lost all off-site power, and transmission lines to other nuclear power plants have also been affected. 4. Ukrainian Ministry of Energy: The Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been integrated into the Ukrainian energy grid, and radiation levels are normal. 5. Special envoys of the Russian and US presidents met for approximately two hours in Davos to discuss a peace plan. 6. Cypriot Finance Minister: The EU Council for Economic and Financial Affairs has agreed to proceed with loans to Ukraine. 7. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: Three documents concerning peace negotiations are nearing completion. He called for more missile supplies to Ukraine.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): Rapid growth in global electric vehicle sales has boosted confidence in the lithium industry.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): Fourth-quarter copper production was 240,000 tons, up 5% year-on-year; aluminum production was 850,000 tons, up 2% year-on-year.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): Copper production in 2025 is 883,000 tonnes, higher than the guidance range of 860,000 to 875,000 tonnes.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): Aluminum production in 2025 is 3.38 million tons, higher than the guidance range of 3.25 million to 3.45 million tons.

Rio Tinto (RIO.N): Global inflationary pressures continue to ease.

On January 21, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told CNN that mutual trust between the US and Europe is being damaged by political tensions, but this will accelerate the long-stalled European integration process. "I think trust is being undermined," Lagarde said in an interview. "When you keep repeating patterns of behavior that undermine the rule of law, break contracts, and break agreements, people will naturally start to question it." "This is a wake-up call, louder than ever before," she said. "I think what's happening now will greatly accelerate the European integration process."

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Deteriorating relations with the United States will accelerate EU integration.

Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez: Venezuela has earned $300 million from oil sales.

According to the Washington Post, the U.S. Department of Defense plans to reduce U.S. involvement in some NATO advisory groups, in the latest round of cuts to defense investment in Europe.

Market news: Venezuela's National Assembly is expected to discuss the oil law on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 870.68 points, or 1.76%, at 48,488.65 on Tuesday, January 20; the S&P 500 closed down 143.07 points, or 2.06%, at 6,796.94; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 561.07 points, or 2.39%, at 22,954.32.

Netflix (NFLX.O) expects Q1 revenue of $12.16 billion, compared to market expectations of $12.19 billion.

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Senators Warren and Durbin sent letters to Attorney General Bundy and Federal Housing Finance Agency President Pulte, seeking access to records related to the investigation by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The letters directly request that the two Trump officials preserve the documents and provide them to the Senate.

US President Trump: (Regarding Greenland) We will come up with a solution that satisfies NATO and also satisfies us.