Real-time News

A Reuters poll found that 58% of economists surveyed believed the addition of two dovish scholars to the Bank of Japan would not make raising interest rates more difficult.

A Reuters poll shows the median forecast indicates the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1.25% in the first quarter of 2027 and to 1.50% in the first quarter of 2028.

A Reuters poll of 64 economists indicated that the Bank of Japan will keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% on March 19.

A Reuters poll found that 60% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.00% by the end of June (up from 58% in the February poll).

March 11th - Amidst the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have weakened. Against this backdrop, demand for Japanese five-year government bonds was stronger than the 12-month average. The bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 3.69, higher than the previous auction's 3.10 and the 12-month average of 3.44. Following the auction, Japanese bond futures narrowed their losses. Soaring oil prices coupled with a depreciating yen have increased the risk of Japan sliding into stagflation, prompting the government to increase fiscal spending and complicating the central bank's tightening measures. The five-year yield, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, is currently trading around 1.64%. Strong demand at last week's 30-year government bond auction indicates that investor demand remains robust despite the war factor. Next week's 20-year government bond issuance will also be closely watched as investors assess how Middle East tensions might affect Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal agenda.

Japan's Topix index rose 2%.

BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.

According to POLITICO: If the €90 billion loan is blocked, Ukraine may receive funding from EU member states.

On March 11, Nomura Securities analysts stated that South Korea's GDP growth rate may reach 2.3% in 2026, exceeding market consensus, as the country takes measures to address the impact of oil prices. In their report, they wrote, "Overall, while rising oil prices may negatively impact economic growth in the short term, we believe the government has sufficient policy options to mitigate downside risks to the growth outlook." They stated that setting price caps on petroleum products and further reducing fuel taxes could be key tools for buffering high retail prices in the short term. They added that the government could allocate a supplementary budget of 10 trillion to 20 trillion won to support vulnerable households and sectors, and release strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize supply.

The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred at 11:22 on March 11 in Rutog County, Ngari Prefecture, Tibet (33.92 degrees north latitude, 81.66 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.

March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”

March 11th - This year's government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijing's new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.

Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Iran's regional aggression.

Piper Jaffray: Lowered its target price for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $240 to $210.

According to Israeli media reports, Iran launched two missiles at Israel.

March 11 - According to the official WeChat account of China Railway, from January to February this year, the national railway completed 72.2 billion yuan in fixed asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Railway construction is progressing with high quality and efficiency, injecting new momentum into regional economic and social development.

The Hang Seng Tech Index rose to 1%, while the Hang Seng Index is currently up 0.47%.

March 11 - Shipping data released on Tuesday suggests that Saudi Arabia's oil shipments via the Red Sea are on track to reach a record high in March, though still far below the decline in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the London Financial Exchange Group shows that Yanbu Port's average loading volume for the first nine days of March reached 2.2 million barrels per day, up from nearly 2 million barrels per day last week and 1.1 million barrels per day in February. Before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 6 million barrels of oil per day through the strait. Kpler shipping data indicates that at least 40 tankers may load in March, potentially pushing exports above 4 million barrels per day. However, while traders claim the port's capacity exceeds 4.5 million barrels per day, actual loading volumes rarely exceed 2.5 million barrels per day.