Real-time News

ECB Vice President Guindos: We must now work based on different hypothetical scenarios.

European Central Bank Vice President Guindos: We need to remain calm regarding monetary policy.

ECB Vice President Guindos: Market reaction could exacerbate supply shocks.

ECB Vice President Guindos: The market will amplify the impact.

ECB Vice President Guindos: Predicting the impact on financial markets is even more complex.

European Central Bank Vice President Guindos: The war with Iran has a negative impact on the economy, and the risks are tilted to the downside.

ECB Vice President Guindos: Macroeconomic forecasting is now much more complex.

European Central Bank Vice President Guindos: The war with Iran has exacerbated uncertainty and volatility.

On March 11th, Ilya Spivak, Global Head of Macro at Tastylive, stated that the next catalyst for the market is likely to come from the inflation data itself. Economists expect the US overall CPI to reach 2.4% year-on-year in February, with the core CPI at 2.5%. However, a key risk is subtly visible beneath the surface of the data. A significant driver of the January CPI data was the declining contribution of energy prices to overall inflation. Given that oil prices have already begun to rise in early 2026, replicating this seems extremely difficult. Regardless of what this means for the energy component of the February CPI data, traders will be closely watching whether core price growth (especially in the services sector) continues its slight decline. This could fuel hopes for inflation normalization after the Middle East conflict subsides, helping to calm market anxieties. If not, fragile financial markets could experience another wave of risk aversion as investors face the possibility of interest rates remaining high for an extended period. This would foreshadow a challenging situation for stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the US dollar.

The onshore yuan closed at 6.8700 against the US dollar at 16:30 on March 11, up 18 points from the previous trading day.

On March 11, local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no plans to personally travel to the United States to attend the G20 summit. Regarding the Ukrainian missile attack on Bryansk, Peskov said that the response to the attack will be decided by the Russian military. He emphasized that the Russian armed forces are conducting planned operations, and the special military operation must be successful.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Some EU countries tax electricity far more than they tax natural gas, and there is still room for action.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Feasible solutions include more effective use of purchase option agreements and contracts for difference (CFDs), government aid measures, gas price subsidies, or capping measures.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Returning to Russian fossil fuels during the current crisis would be a major strategic mistake.

Gasunie, a Dutch gas company, urged the Dutch government to establish a strategic gas reserve. A lack of gas reserves would leave the Netherlands vulnerable to prolonged supply disruptions.

NIO President Qin Lihong: Due to multiple factors, including a shortage of memory chips, the cost of high-end electric vehicles may increase by 6,000 to 10,000 yuan this year.

March 11th - According to the Ministry of Transport, on March 11th (the 38th day of the Spring Festival travel rush, the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the total cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 171.76 million person-times, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous day, and an increase of 0.6% compared to the same period in 2025. Among them, railway passenger volume is expected to reach 9.1 million person-times, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the previous day, and a decrease of 11.5% compared to the same period in 2025.

The chart shows that at 22:00 Beijing time on March 11, there will be large foreign exchange options contracts for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY expiring, including three contracts with strike prices exceeding 1 billion. Please manage your risks.

On March 11, T. Rowe Price portfolio manager Vincent Chung stated in a report that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March due to the need for time to reassess the current geopolitical situation. He believes the bank may take monetary policy action in April, as wage negotiation data will be available then. He noted that recent factors such as rising oil prices have exacerbated inflation risks, and persistently high oil prices could be a long-term drag on the BOJ's policy inaction. Chung also pointed out that the market may be concerned about potential yen intervention, but the recent yen depreciation is consistent with other foreign exchange peers. He added that if the BOJ sends a dovish signal at its March meeting, it could put further pressure on the yen.