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On January 30th, Trump turned the selection process for the Federal Reserve Chair into a game show, with Kevin Warsh's ultimate victory being arguably the most unexpected choice. This decision is bound to exacerbate market volatility and may displease all parties, including Trump himself. This nomination will first trigger a strong cognitive conflict on Wall Street and in policy circles. Although Trump promised to choose a Fed Chair capable of implementing loose monetary policy, Warsh has always been considered a hawk. This background will make it difficult for Warsh to build credibility. If he chooses to cut interest rates, the market will see him as abandoning principles and submitting to Trump's puppet; if he maintains high interest rates for too long, he will inevitably clash with Trump quickly, which in itself will trigger market volatility. Before Powell's term ends, Warsh's "shadow term" has already begun, potentially leading to confused policy signals and market misinterpretations. Intriguingly, Warsh's victory seems to stem from a "survivor's logic." When the Trump team lost interest in Hassett, he became the only remaining option. Until December of last year, Hassett was still the top favorite in the forecasting market, but concerns that his nomination could drive up bond term premiums, coupled with warnings from Wall Street executives that someone too close to the president should not be in charge of an independent central bank, eventually changed the situation.

On January 30th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the current interest rate range is 3.50%-3.75%, and monetary policy should be closer to a neutral level, which he believes is around 3%. Despite robust economic growth, the labor market remains weak. Waller expects last year's weak employment data to be revised downwards, reflecting near-zero job growth in 2025. He stated that he has heard of several companies planning layoffs in 2026, and therefore is quite skeptical about job growth, warning of a significant risk of a sharp deterioration in employment. Regarding inflation, Waller pointed out that the inflation rate excluding tariffs is close to the Fed's 2% target and is on track to reach it. Although inflation has risen due to tariffs, he believes that given that inflation expectations have stabilized, monetary policy should ignore these temporary effects. Waller voted against a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's meeting, arguing that current policy is still excessively suppressing economic activity.

On January 30th, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky stated that Germany has completely refused to purchase energy from Russia, and there is currently no possibility of resuming energy dialogue with Germany. Lyubinsky said that to "accommodate" certain political situations, Germany has completely refused to purchase coal, oil, petroleum products, and pipeline natural gas from Russia, and Russia currently sees no prospect of resuming normal energy dialogue with Germany. Lyubinsky said that Russia had indicated its willingness to resume gas supplies to Germany through the currently intact Nord Stream pipeline branch, provided Germany expressed its willingness, but Germany has not responded. Lyubinsky emphasized that Germany's choice will damage its own economy.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Despite robust economic growth, the labor market remains weak.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Expects last year's weak jobs data to be revised downwards to reflect near-zero job growth in 2025.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Inflation excluding tariffs is close to the Fed’s 2% target and is on track to reach it.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Inflation has risen due to tariffs, but given that inflation expectations have stabilized, monetary policy should ignore these effects.

U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 3.00% on the day, currently trading at $4.036 per million British thermal units.

On January 30th, Shu Lingmin, Deputy Director of the Internet Supervision Department of the State Administration for Market Regulation, stated that after a year of special governance of live-streaming e-commerce, the chaos in the industry has been initially curbed. In 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation will adhere to a problem-oriented approach, actively cooperate with relevant departments, further strengthen the routine supervision of the live-streaming e-commerce industry, and effectively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and operators. Shu Lingmin made the above statement at a special press conference on live-streaming e-commerce supervision held by the State Administration for Market Regulation on the 30th. It was introduced that the next step for the State Administration for Market Regulation will focus on further strengthening the "gatekeeper" responsibilities of platforms and increasing the crackdown on illegal and irregular activities.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic: Each chairman has his own view of the world, but interest rate decisions involve 12 people.

Federal Reserve's Bostic: Ultimately, the Fed's actions require a vote from all 12 people.

Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic: We'll have to see how Warsh performs as Federal Reserve Chairman.

Federal Reserve's Bostic: It's best to only hold U.S. Treasury bonds that match the market.

Federal Reserve's Bostic: The Fed's balance sheet has expanded due to the crisis, but it should gradually exit its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).