Real-time News

On March 19th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its March meeting was in line with market expectations. The dot plot and economic forecasts indicate upward revisions to inflation expectations and a narrowing of the room for rate cuts, suggesting a cautious overall policy stance. Although Powell believes the uncertainty surrounding oil price shocks is significant and the economy remains resilient, we believe the actual situation is more complex. Tariffs and immigration policies have already constrained supply, and coupled with the oil price shock, the US economy is entering a "stagflation-like" phase. Simultaneously, private lending risks are emerging, and financial conditions may tighten spontaneously. Against this backdrop, the Fed may remain on hold in the short term due to inflation stickiness; in the medium term, as demand weakens or financial risks escalate, policy will face pressure to passively shift towards rate cuts. We expect the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with a resumption of rate cuts postponed until the second half. However, if rate cuts are a passive response to a deteriorating economic or financial environment, it will be difficult to boost market risk appetite.

Market news: HSBC is considering large-scale layoffs in a multi-year restructuring driven by artificial intelligence.

Samsung Electronics shares fell 4%, and SK Hynix shares fell 4.2%.

According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say India has purchased more than 30 million barrels of unsold Russian oil. More deals are expected soon.

March 19 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark contract rising by about 2%, mainly reflecting the strength of Brent crude oil futures and the potential reduction in U.S. corn planting area this spring. A research report released by Bank of America indicates that the agricultural futures market has not yet fully felt the full impact of the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz. The ripple effect caused by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices has begun to transmit to the cost side of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and fuels. If fertilizer prices remain high and supply tightens, the expected yield of major crops such as U.S. corn may face severe challenges. According to a survey of farmers conducted by Allendale, the U.S. corn planting area this year is expected to be approximately 93.68 million acres, a decrease of 5.12 million acres from last year, and also lower than the 94 million acres predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at a forum last month.

Saudi Foreign Minister: We don’t know when the war will end.

March 19 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Thursday morning, as Brent crude oil futures continue to strengthen. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has fueled the continued strength of Brent crude oil futures, which will likely support the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. Strong Malaysian palm oil exports and a significant increase in palm oil purchases by India, the world's largest importer of edible oils, are also providing strong support for palm oil prices. Data from shipping surveyors shows that palm oil exports surged 43.5% to 56.9% month-on-month from March 1 to 15. India's palm oil imports in February increased by 11%, reaching a nearly six-month high, mainly due to the price advantage of palm oil relative to other competing edible oils. However, senior industry insiders say that although energy supply disruptions in the Middle East have boosted market expectations for biodiesel demand, weak purchasing intentions from major importing countries are casting a shadow over the market outlook.

Japan's core machinery orders rose 13.7% year-on-year in January, below the expected 10.5% and the previous month's 16.8%.

Japan's core machinery orders fell 5.5% month-on-month in January, compared with an expected decline of 9.6% and a previous reading of 19.10%.

According to Iranian state media, Iran stated that the supply from the Asaluyeh gas complex was not disrupted after the attack.

1. South Korean media: The South Korean government has dispatched an inter-agency research team to China to investigate autonomous driving policies. 2. The European Union launched the "EU Inc." program, aiming to create a startup ecosystem to rival economies like the United States. 3. Samsung Electronics union members voted to hold a full-scale strike from May 21 to June 7. 4. Samsung Electronics' foundry business head: Tesla chips will be produced by the end of 2027. 5. Micron Technology: NAND flash memory demand will significantly exceed available supply in the foreseeable future, starting in fiscal year 2026. 6. Xiaomi released its large-format MiMo-V2-Pro. 7. Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Smart Cloud announced price increases, while JD Cloud lowered prices. 8. Microsoft is considering legal action against a $50 billion cloud services deal between Amazon and OpenAI.

Saudi Foreign Minister: The Kingdom’s leadership will make the necessary decisions when the time is right.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Saudi Arabia reserves the right to take military action (against Iran) if necessary.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Both political and non-political means can be used against Iran.

On March 19th, Xiaomi released its large-scale agent model, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro. According to reports, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro is specifically designed for high-intensity agent workloads in the real world. It boasts over 1TB of total parameters (42B of activation parameters), employs an innovative hybrid attention architecture, and supports ultra-long context lengths of up to 1MB. The MiMo-V2-Pro model is now officially available via API, supporting 1MB context lengths and offering tiered pricing based on usage: 256KB or less context: $1 input/million tokens, $3 output/million tokens; 1MB or less context: $2 input/million tokens, $6 output/million tokens. MiMo-V2-Pro is now available on multiple platforms.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran must reassess its "miscalculation"; the attack will bring no benefit.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran must immediately cease supporting regional proxy forces and safeguard maritime navigation.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran "had prepared for these attacks in advance".

1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.63% to 46,225.15 points, a new low for the year; the S&P 500 fell 1.36% to 6,624.7 points; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.46% to 22,152.42 points. McDonald's and Procter & Gamble led the decline, falling more than 3%. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.47%, with Amazon falling more than 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.06%, Weibo fell more than 10%, and Tencent Music fell more than 9%. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed lower. The German DAX fell 0.96% to 23,502.25 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.06% to 7,969.88 points; and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.94% to 10,305.29 points. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 3.68% at $99.05 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 5.7% to $105.06 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4823.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. 5. Most London base metals fell. LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $3419.5 per tonne, LME nickel fell 0.20% to $17160.0 per tonne, LME lead fell 0.86% to $1913.0 per tonne, LME zinc fell 2.94% to $3132.5 per tonne, LME tin fell 2.95% to $45345.0 per tonne, and LME copper fell 3.40% to $12340.5 per tonne.