Real-time News

On March 3, Capital Economics stated in a research report that if the Middle East conflict persists, Asian central banks may pause their easing cycles. If the conflict drags on, oil prices could rise to around $100 per barrel, putting significant upward pressure on energy prices in the region. In this scenario, overall inflation would be more than one percentage point higher than Capital Economics' benchmark forecast. The firm added, "Given the relatively favorable starting point for inflation and the potential for rising oil prices to drag on economic growth by squeezing real incomes and increasing business costs, central banks will be reluctant to shift to a clear stance of interest rate hikes."

March 3 - Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, was hit by another airstrike early this morning, with explosions and gunfire heard over the city. The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan continues. Earlier, Afghan Defense Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Sidiqullah Nusrat stated that Afghanistan had captured eight Pakistani security outposts.

U.S. State Department: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives on Capitol Hill on Tuesday afternoon local time.

Futures News, March 3rd: The surge in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts is favorable for fuel oil prices. Coupled with expectations of tighter fuel oil supply, major refineries are expected to increase their contract volume today. However, declining processing profits in secondary units are suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that fuel oil negotiations will maintain an upward trend today, but transactions will mainly be driven by immediate needs.

According to Iranian media outlet Daily Iran News, the United States is deploying reinforcements to designated locations. A total of fifteen KC-135R/T aerial refueling tankers are en route to Central Command, with four flying over Europe and eleven over North America. Three have already reached aerial refueling altitude, indicating readiness for prolonged operations.

Australia's current account deficit for the fourth quarter was A$21.1 billion, compared to a forecast of A$16.3 billion and a previous deficit of A$16.6 billion.

A Reuters poll of 30 economists indicates that the Central Bank of Malaysia expects to keep its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75% on March 5, and that the rate will remain unchanged throughout 2026.

The South Korean won fell by more than 1% against the US dollar.

The UK's BRC Shop Price Index rose 1.1% year-on-year in February, down from 1.50% in the previous month.

The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to 3.3%.

Samsung Electronics shares fell 3% at the open.

March 3 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark contract rising 1.4%, following the gains in international crude oil futures. Over the weekend, airstrikes against Iran targeted at least 131 cities and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This had a negative impact on most commodity markets, but soybean oil was an exception, as its price is typically closely correlated with crude oil and gasoline futures. Monthly crush data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday showed that U.S. soybean oil stocks stood at 2.433 billion pounds at the end of January 2026, up 11.7% month-over-month and surging 33.9% year-over-year. This figure also exceeded market expectations, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We will minimize the impact of tensions in Iran on the Japanese economy.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Foreign exchange intervention is part of a joint statement with the United States.

Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryomasa Akazawa: There are no specific plans to release oil reserves. The suspension of Qatar's liquefied natural gas production has no short-term impact on Japan's electricity and natural gas supply.