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On July 23, Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng met with a cross-party delegation of parliamentarians led by McAleester, Chairman of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee. Gong Zheng stated that he looks forward to further deepening cooperation with the EU in areas such as trade, industrial investment, and cultural exchanges, and supports outstanding enterprises to invest and operate in each other's countries, bringing more beneficial results to Sino-EU friendly exchanges. He hoped that the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee would leverage its strengths to support the EU in strengthening all-round cooperation with Shanghai, making greater contributions to the healthy and stable development of Sino-EU relations.
According to Reuters calculations, Russia's state oil and gas tax revenue is expected to increase by 60% year-on-year in July, reaching 1.3 trillion rubles, thanks to rising global oil prices.
According to Punchbowl: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Thune said that sanctions against Iran have been included in the Russia bill.
German Defense Minister Pistorius: Considering establishing a space launch site for the Federal Armed Forces.
July 23 – Sources familiar with the matter say European Central Bank (ECB) officials are prepared to raise interest rates in September unless the eurozone's inflation outlook improves significantly. According to sources, based on current information and data, particularly the Middle East conflict and its economic impact, a further one percentage point increase may be needed to curb inflationary pressures. The sources emphasized that no decision has been made yet, and the situation could change rapidly, especially if a peace agreement progresses or a more severe recession occurs. This stance is consistent with the ECB's decision-making process, which involves making decisions "on a meeting-by-meeting" basis. On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde laid the groundwork for a possible September rate hike, stating that some members had asked themselves whether a rate increase was warranted. "Some members have asked themselves whether we should consider raising interest rates," she said. "We are fully prepared to closely monitor developments and the data we will receive in the coming weeks."
On July 23, Google (GOOG.O) shares fell more than 7% on Thursday after the company revised its capital expenditure forecast for this year upward to $195 billion to $205 billion from $190 billion previously. This serves as a reminder that the full cost of Silicon Valley's AI competition is still largely untapped. Google is the first major tech company to report quarterly earnings. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will report next week. These four companies previously revealed in April that they would collectively invest up to $725 billion in AI development this year. This figure will increase further by the end of next week, based on Google's example. Nevertheless, the returns on these investments remain unclear. Thomas Montero, a senior analyst at an investment firm, stated, "Google's larger spending plans are 'not satisfactory.' Coupled with rising interest rates and continued supply and demand tensions in AI infrastructure, the idea that companies will always rely on cash flow for financing may be losing its appeal."
The U.S. Department of Justice will reopen a "second request" investigation into the merger and acquisition transaction.
UBS Group: Lowered its price target for Tesla (TSLA.O) from $442 to $385.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Canada was in a stronger position at the start of the trade war and will take all necessary measures to defend its interests.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Canada will not hesitate to defend its interests in the trade war with the United States.
UBS Group: Lowered its target price for Alphabet (GOOG.O) from $400 to $379.
Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) extended its gains to 12%, its biggest intraday gain since 2020.
World Bank estimates that the Venezuelan earthquake caused $19.6 billion in direct physical damage.
Futures News, July 23 – According to foreign media reports, Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Thursday, reaching their highest level in three months at one point. Market expectations of tighter palm oil supply, coupled with continued gains in crude oil futures, boosted the demand outlook for the biodiesel industry. A director of an agricultural trading company in Kuala Lumpur stated that funds are driving a substantial breakthrough in palm oil prices, supported by multiple factors. These include risks related to El Niño, expected production declines in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027, the biodiesel demand outlook amidst tensions in the Middle East, and pre-festival restocking demand in India. The Malaysian Meteorological Department indicated that record-breaking high temperatures are expected in Malaysia next year as El Niño intensifies, raising concerns about declining palm oil production.
Market news: Venezuela's Ministry of Petroleum is preparing to complete the transition of oil joint ventures and contracts by early next week in order to maintain the July 28 deadline.
The preliminary reading of the Eurozone consumer confidence index for July will be released in ten minutes.
Gold prices fell more than 2% on Thursday, July 23, as Middle East conflict pushed up energy prices, exacerbated inflation concerns, and reinforced expectations of a US interest rate hike this year. Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at American Gold Exchange, said, "Rising oil prices are pushing up bond yields because people believe the Fed will be unable to lower interest rates due to inflation concerns. The market expects no change in Fed rates next week, perhaps only more hawkish comments. But if the Fed unexpectedly takes a dovish or hawkish stance, the market will react."
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO.N) rose nearly 12%, its biggest intraday gain in a year.
Interest Rate Decision: 1. Interest Rate Level: The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, leaving room for a rate hike in September. 2. Interest Rate Path: No pre-commitment was made to a specific interest rate path; the ECB will adopt a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach. 3. Middle East Conflict: The inflationary impact of a full-blown energy shock has not yet materialized; the ECB is closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock. 4. Inflation Expectations: The energy price outlook "remains close to the baseline scenario projected in June," and the ECB remains well-positioned to respond to energy price shocks. 5. Market Reaction: Traders' bets on the ECB remained stable, with expectations of a 48 basis point rate hike by the end of the year; a September rate hike is almost a certainty. Lagarde Press Conference: 1. Interest Rate Path: A member asked whether we should consider raising interest rates. There is no pressure to raise rates today. No forward guidance is provided. 2. Inflation Outlook: Inflation risks are skewed to the upside. Energy inflation could cause inflation to be well above target in the first half of 2027, but inflation is expected to begin to slow after the first half of 2027. 3. Economic Outlook: The growth outlook faces downside risks. Economic growth will remain moderate in the short term, while the fundamental drivers of growth will remain solid in the medium term. 4. Middle East conflict: Conflict is the main source of uncertainty. The energy shock could intensify further, and its impact on other prices and wages may be more significant than currently expected.
American Airlines (AAL.O) fell 9.1%, its biggest intraday drop in a year.
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