EUR/USD
1.17782
-0.032%
Gold
4787.52
-0.067%
Oil
89.744
0.133%
USD/JPY
159.348
0.130%
GBP/USD
1.35171
-0.069%
GBP/JPY
215.397
0.072%
Real-time News
On April 17th, a UBS research report pointed out that despite the European Central Banks (ECB) hawkish tone, the bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated this week that rising energy costs have pushed the Eurozone away from the central banks baseline outlook, and the ECB is weighing its options. Given the ECBs inflation mandate and its forecast that the Iran war will have a greater impact on inflation than on growth, current market pricing indicates that the ECB will raise interest rates twice before the end of the year. However, the current economic context is significantly different from that of 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted. The ECBs policy has only recently returned to a neutral setting, and the labor market has been weak. Considering the risks the conflict poses to the growth outlook and the tightening financial conditions already seen in the bond market, we believe the ECB is unlikely to rush into raising interest rates and is more likely to keep them unchanged until the end of the year.On April 17, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. Guo stated that in recent years, harassment and provocations against Chinese diplomatic missions in Japan have been constant, culminating in a series of serious incidents recently, including active-duty Self-Defense Force officers storming the embassy with knives. Japans security policy is shifting towards an aggressive, expansionist, and dangerous direction. The Japanese side has failed to manage and control the Self-Defense Forces, and there is a lack of internal management and training within the Self-Defense Forces. How to fundamentally resolve these issues is a question worthy of deep reflection by insightful individuals within Japan. We once again urge Japan to reflect on its mistakes, thoroughly investigate and rectify them, and give China a responsible explanation.On April 17, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. Guo Jiakun pointed out that China consistently opposes illegal unilateral sanctions lacking a basis in international law and without authorization from the UN Security Council, and opposes the abuse of long-arm jurisdiction. Cooperation between China and Venezuela is protected by international law and the laws of both countries, and Chinas legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be guaranteed.On April 17th, a UBS research report pointed out that the Federal Reserve remains on track for further easing. Fed Chairman Powell recently downplayed the need to tighten monetary policy due to rising energy prices, noting that policymakers typically "ignore" supply shocks such as soaring oil prices, especially when inflation expectations remain firmly under control. While the Fed is still seeking further evidence of a sustained decline in core inflation before implementing further easing, we still expect a 50 basis point rate cut later this year. Given that US Treasury yields are significantly higher than pre-conflict levels, we believe there is ample downside potential, and our year-end targets for 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are 3.25% and 3.75%, respectively.On April 17th, it was reported that on April 16th, a delegation led by Yan Ci, President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, held a closed-door meeting with Liu Xiaotao, Governor of Jiangsu Province. The delegation included Chamber Vice President Dai Kaile, National Representative Wei Hainuo, Chairman of the Nanjing Chapter Shan Jianhua, and representatives from member companies of the Advisory Committee. Zhao Yan, Vice Governor of Jiangsu Province, and officials from relevant departments also attended. Liu Xiaotao emphasized the important role of European companies in Jiangsus economic development and stated that the provincial government will further optimize the business environment and provide stronger support for foreign-invested enterprises. The delegation raised concerns and suggestions regarding profit reinvestment, international flights, international talent recruitment, low-carbon development, the construction of innovation centers, intellectual property protection, and the development of industries such as biomedicine and food.
