Real-time News

July 4th - A Reuters survey showed that OPEC crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, increasing by approximately 3.3 million barrels per day to 19.43 million barrels per day, a significant rebound from the more than two-decade low reached in May, but still far below quota levels. This production increase was mainly driven by the resumption of supply from Gulf countries, with Kuwait seeing the largest increase, followed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Nigeria and Libya also saw slight increases in production. The UAE withdrew from OPEC on May 1st and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the previous war with Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had caused supply disruptions, but the subsequent lifting of restrictions on ships at Iranian ports by the United States helped to restore some production. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, it could not be fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply is recovering, but has not yet returned to normal levels.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: The United States must "accept the established realities in the trade arena."

Hang Seng Index futures closed down 0.2% at 23,253 points in overnight trading, a discount of 97 points.

On July 4th, Labour politician Andy Burnham stated that if he succeeds Starmer as Prime Minister, he will not dissolve Parliament early and call a new general election. Instead, he will continue to implement Labour's campaign promises from the 2024 general election, including maintaining the triple lock on pensions. He also outlined several policy positions: advocating for stronger regulation in the public service sector, even considering nationalization in some industries; supporting further improvements in UK-EU relations; willing to negotiate with countries including Afghanistan to repatriate rejected asylum seekers; supporting electoral reform; ensuring adequate funding for defense investment programs; and explicitly stating continued firm support for Ukraine. If the party nomination proceeds smoothly and without competition, he could become Labour leader in mid-July and subsequently become Prime Minister.

July 4th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 0.81%, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 1.61%, and the SC crude oil futures contract fell 0.16%.

July 4th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 0.81% to 913 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 1.61% to 15,294 yuan/kilogram, and the SC Crude Oil futures contract fell 0.16% to 438 yuan/barrel.

On July 4th, it was reported that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will personally attend next week's EU finance ministers' meeting in Brussels, instead of being represented by a vice president. According to the ECB's weekly schedule, Lagarde will not only attend the Eurogroup meeting on July 9th but also the meeting of the Council for Economic and Financial Affairs (Ecofin) the following day. This arrangement is unusual, as such meetings are typically represented by the ECB vice president. Since assuming the position of ECB vice president in early June, Vujicic has already attended one Ecofin meeting. The ECB schedule also indicates that he will travel to Athens next Friday for a meeting. Lagarde's decision to personally attend these two meetings comes amidst speculation that she may step down early to pursue a political career in France.

Brazilian government: Data shows that crude oil exports in June were 8.48 million tons, compared to 7.95 million tons in the same period last year.

On July 4th, JPMorgan Chase stated that gold prices may be limited in the short term due to weakening demand, and will likely remain range-bound overall. The main reasons are weakening purchasing power in key demand sectors and gold's renewed sensitivity to changes in real interest rates, which could limit further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view in the medium to long term. It expects gold to gradually recover in the second half of 2026, with an average price of approximately $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and rising to approximately $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan Chase believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven primarily by continued central bank gold purchases, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation demand. These factors will support gold's long-term attractiveness as a safe-haven and reserve asset.

British prime ministerial candidate Burnham: Willing to negotiate with the Taliban to repatriate asylum seekers in Afghanistan.

British Prime Minister candidate Burnham: We will build on the good work of the previous government to establish a closer relationship with the EU.

British prime ministerial candidate Burnham: Confirmed there will be no early general election.

British Prime Minister candidate Burnham: His campaign promises regarding the "triple lock-in" mechanism for pensions remain valid.

British Prime Minister candidate Burnham: Will ensure that defense investment plans receive adequate funding.

Fitch Ratings: If the Middle East conflict continues, 72 sub-sectors across six regions will continue to face potential threats.

Fitch Ratings: The 60-day interim agreement is extremely fragile, and the fact that Israel is not involved suggests that the Middle East conflict continues to pose a threat to corporate issuers.

Fitch Ratings: Reassessing the ongoing risks related to Iran to the global corporate sector.

Fitch Ratings: Emphasizes downside risks to benchmark oil price assumptions for 2026.

The World Health Organization reports that as of July 1, the Democratic Republic of Congo has reported a total of 1,460 confirmed cases, including 452 deaths.