Real-time News

Domestic News: 1. The People's Bank of China held its 2026 second-half work conference: continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. 2. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange held its 2026 second-half foreign exchange management work exchange meeting: continuing to steadily expand institutional opening-up in the foreign exchange field. 3. China Cotton Association: opposing US sanctions and suppression of Chinese cotton textile enterprises. 4. State Grid: electricity load in many areas hit record highs, taking multiple measures to ensure power supply. International News: 1. Brazil's Workers' Party officially confirmed Lula as its presidential candidate. 2. The immigrant crisis in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta has resulted in 72 deaths. 3. OPEC+ agreed to increase the September oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day. 4. Japanese officials: Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama will officially announce on Monday a coordinated Japan-US action to curb the yen's depreciation; the intervention is not yet over. 5. Middle East situation—① Trump: received a request from Iran and agreed to cancel the strikes against Iran; the Iranian military called this a "lie." (Trump calls off strikes against Iran for the eighth time) ② Iranian President: The memorandum of understanding with the United States will be the core of our future diplomatic relations. ③ Iranian media: Reports that Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are fake news. ④ Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations between Iran and Oman are nearing completion. The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and the reopening issue is unrelated to the Oman negotiations. ⑤ Israel claims Netanyahu learned of the US call to halt strikes against Iran through Trump's social media. ⑥ Iranian Parliament National Security Committee: Mediators are assisting in restoring the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, and all parties have exchanged views on all issues. ⑦ Trump: US-Iran negotiations will begin tomorrow (morning of the 4th Beijing time), and an agreement has been reached on the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose 13 points, and 30-year Treasury futures rose 22 points.

On August 3rd, US President Trump stated on Sunday (Eastern Time): "The strike against Iran was cancelled at the request of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran. If it weren't for their request, a massive attack on Iran would have been launched last night. Iran is aware of the scale of that attack. I believe there is an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, and a denuclearization agreement will be reached. We are in talks with them in the form of negotiations, starting tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday morning Beijing time). We are ready to act." Trump also addressed the Japanese yen: "The United States intervened because of our good relationship with Japan. We have always supported Japan, and the United States has gained economic benefits from the relevant arrangements."

Conflict Situation 1. United States – ① Trump: Agreed to cancel strikes against Iran. ② U.S. Central Command: A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C stealth fighter took off from the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which is sailing in the Arabian Sea to support the U.S. blockade of Iran. 2. Israel – Israel Defense Forces: Killed two Hamas commanders in Gaza over the weekend. ② Israel claims Netanyahu learned of the U.S. call for a halt to strikes against Iran through Trump's social media. ③ The Israel Defense Forces remain on high alert today, believing Iran may create unforeseen circumstances. 3. Iran – ① Iranian military: Trump called Iran's demand to stop the attacks a "lie." ② A spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the strike on the Amazon data center in Bahrain was a response to U.S. action; the spokesperson did not specify the timing of the strike. U.S.-Iran Negotiations 1. Iran – ① Iranian President: The memorandum of understanding with the United States will be central to our future diplomatic relations. ② Iranian Parliament National Security Committee: Mediators are assisting in the restoration of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, and all parties have exchanged views on all issues. 2. United States – ① Rubio: The US strikes have made Iran more willing to negotiate; the era of "negotiating without consequences" is over. Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian media: Reports that Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are false. 2. Diplomatic sources report that Qatari diplomats are negotiating with Iran to secure the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final stage. The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and the issue of reopening is unrelated to the negotiations with Oman. Other developments 1. Saudi Foreign Minister speaks with Qatari Prime Minister. 2. Gulf states are dissatisfied with the US lack of a strategy against Iran. 3. Acting Iranian Defense Minister: Iran will not be "caught off guard" by its enemies, nor will it stand idly by. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi speaks with Iraqi Foreign Minister; they discuss the latest developments in the region and ways to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation. 5. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met on Sunday and stressed the importance of protecting international sea lanes to ensure the continued flow of energy.

On August 3rd, US President Trump stated on Saturday evening (Eastern Time) that he would suspend a new round of attacks on Iran, awaiting the resumption of negotiations to end the war and restore cargo transport halted in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the latest example in a series of US presidents threatening large-scale attacks only to cancel them later. This sudden shift has become a prominent feature of the five-month-long US-Iran conflict. According to statistics, similar "scripts" have played out eight times so far. 1. April 7th: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the "deadline." At that time, he demanded Iran submit, or face attacks on bridges and power plants—which he claimed would mean "the destruction of an entire civilization." 2. April 21st: Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, just one day before the agreement expired, the same day the US launched attacks on Iranian oil tankers. 3. May 18th: After issuing harsh threats to Iran over the weekend, Trump stated he was suspending a large-scale military strike plan because "serious negotiations" were underway. By May 27th, the negotiations had broken down, and the US resumed attacks. 4. June 11: After two days of mutual attacks, Trump escalated his threats further, saying the U.S. would "strike hard tonight" Iran and "take full control" of its oil and gas industry. However, hours later, Trump posted on social media that negotiations had made a breakthrough and canceled the strikes. 5. June 17: Trump and Iran signed a preliminary agreement requiring a permanent cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while launching a 60-day countdown to negotiations to reach a final agreement on the future of Iran's nuclear program. 6. July 7: Following Iranian attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump launched new strikes against Iran while attending the NATO leaders' summit in Ankara, Turkey. He then again threatened to "get the job done," saying he believed the ceasefire was over. 7. July 27: Trump said he had paused two weeks of intensive daily strikes against Iran to give negotiations another chance. During the 13-day strikes, the U.S. military targeted key military and commercial facilities as tensions along shipping routes continued to escalate. 8. August 1: After telling reporters that the United States would strike Iran “severely,” Trump said on social media that he had canceled the planned strike, claiming that Middle Eastern allies had reached a framework agreement to end the war, including reopening the Straits.