Real-time News

February 12th - The U.S. government's fiscal deficit in January decreased compared to last year, while tariff revenue surged. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that customs duties collected in January totaled $30 billion, bringing the year-to-date total to $124 billion, a 304% increase compared to the same period in 2025. These tariffs helped slow the growth of the budget deficit. In the fourth month of the fiscal year, the fiscal deficit was approximately $95 billion, a decrease of about 26% compared to the same period last year. As of now, the federal government deficit is $697 billion, a 17% decrease compared to 2025. After calendar adjustments, the deficit has decreased by 21%.

US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: We are tracking the Iranian leadership and the funds it moves globally.

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Trump is open to the Iran issue.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: Mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields have both declined.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen: I believe manufacturing jobs will increase in the coming months.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: I expect construction jobs to continue to increase.

US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: The US economy could grow by 3% by 2025.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) stated that Moderna (MRNA.O) violated the advice of FDA professional scientists by providing substandard care to participants aged 65 and older, exposing them to an increased risk of serious illness.

The memo shows that JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) has appointed Burkhard Koep as head of its global communications investment banking business.

U.S. Treasury Department: January budget spending was $655 billion and revenue was $560 billion, both of which set new monthly records.

U.S. Treasury Department: Net customs revenues in January were $27.7 billion. The deficit for fiscal year 2026 to date is $697 billion (compared to a deficit of $840 billion in the same period of fiscal year 2025).

The Bank of France expects growth in the first quarter to be between 0.2% and 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year.

Hang Seng Index futures closed down 0.07% at 27,206 points in overnight trading, a discount of 60 points.

On February 12, the Bank of Canada stated that recent U.S. actions regarding trade, foreign policy, and central bank independence are making the world "more volatile" and exacerbating uncertainty. In January 2026, the bank maintained its interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time, with officials citing increased uncertainty as making it difficult for policymakers to determine whether to raise or lower rates next. The meeting minutes reiterated that "it is difficult to predict the timing and direction of the next policy rate change." The Governing Council explicitly identified Canada's southern neighbor as the most serious source of instability, although the minutes did not directly name Trump. The minutes cited examples of the Trump administration's international and trade policies as sources of instability, and for the first time included Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve in internal central bank discussions. The minutes stated that "recent geopolitical events—including in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve—have made the world more volatile," and that "U.S. trade policy is increasingly being used for geopolitical purposes rather than economic purposes, and therefore becoming more unpredictable."

On February 12th, according to the Wall Street Journal, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed at a fund's annual meeting on Wednesday that it has established a new position in Meta Platforms (META.O). As of the end of 2025, this holding represents 10% of the company's capital, equivalent to approximately $2 billion based on previously disclosed data. Over the past six months, Meta's stock price has fallen by about 13%, which Pershing Square believes stems from investor concerns about the company's massive investments in artificial intelligence. Pershing Square's investment logic is partly based on the assessment that artificial intelligence will enhance Meta's content recommendation and personalized advertising capabilities, and may unlock new opportunities in wearable devices or enterprise-facing AI digital assistants. Pershing Square stated, "Meta's business model is one of the most direct beneficiaries of the integration of artificial intelligence." According to presentation materials, Pershing Square began building its position in Meta in November, with an average cost of $625 per share. Meta's stock price has risen 11% since then until the end of 2025, and another 3% in early 2026.

February 12th - Sources indicate that the Federal Reserve has signaled to the banking industry its intention to drop some of the corrective action warnings previously issued to certain institutions. This move comes as Vice Chairman Bowman continues to ease regulations on U.S. financial institutions. Earlier this month, Fed officials informed banks that reviewers would begin assessing pending warnings. These warnings, essentially private corrective orders, require banks to fix operational deficiencies. Sources say that warnings will be withdrawn if they do not align with recent Fed directives (that reviewers should focus more on immediate risks to a bank's financial health than on process and procedure issues). The Fed's action targets so-called "issues of concern" and "issues of immediate concern," the latter typically requiring swift action. These directives can arise from various aspects of a bank's operations, including financial health, cybersecurity preparedness, or executive succession planning. Sources say the Fed will still issue directives during routine inspections, but the trigger thresholds will be raised.

According to Futures News on February 12, as of the close of trading at 2:30 PM, the main Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 0.44%, the main Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 2.27%, and the main SC crude oil futures contract rose 0.82%.

February 12th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 0.44% to 1131 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 2.27% to 20965 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil futures contract rose 0.82% to 480 yuan/barrel.

Bank of Canada meeting minutes: The labor market is “weak” based on a broad range of indicators.