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June 10th - US May CPI data showed inflation surging to a three-year high, but a moderate rise in core prices eased Wall Street's concerns about interest rate hikes. Today's CPI data and tomorrow's PPI index are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which will be announced at the Fed meeting chaired by Warsh for the first time in a week. According to CME FedWatch, prior to the release of the CPI inflation data, the market had already priced in a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of 2026. However, the market believes that a rate hike at next week's meeting is highly unlikely, with only a 13% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting. The short-term focus is on whether the Fed will clearly shift from an easing stance to a neutral or tightening stance at the upcoming meeting. This week's CPI and PPI inflation data, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations, may influence the balance between neutral and tightening.

German Chancellor Merz: The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project will continue to be pursued as a European system. Discussions on the project will take place in July.

German Chancellor Merz: French President Macron and I have agreed not to proceed with the development of the Joint Fighter Jet.

June 10th - U.S. consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in three years in May, as conflict in the Middle East pushed up prices for gasoline and other energy products, providing more justification for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged until 2027. Data released Wednesday showed that the CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in the 12 months ending in May, the largest increase since April 2023. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.5%, following a 0.6% increase in April. The third consecutive month of sharp CPI increases highlights growing pressure on households, as signs emerge that more consumers are drawing on savings to pay for expenses. Furthermore, inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month, potentially negatively impacting overall economic growth. Meanwhile, the sharp rise in the cost of living is a significant political burden for President Trump and his party as they try to retain control of Congress in the November midterm elections.

Following the release of the CPI data, the declines in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures narrowed.

Following the release of CPI data, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices remained largely unchanged. A quick chart provides a glimpse into the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.

The US May unadjusted CPI annual rate was 4.2%, in line with market expectations. After the CPI data was released, spot gold rose by about $20 in the short term. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion prices of precious metals in the domestic and international markets.

Following the release of the CPI data, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil remained largely unchanged, at $89.76 per barrel and $91.85 per barrel, respectively.

The U.S. unadjusted housing inflation rate was 3.4% in May, down from 3.3% in the previous month.

The U.S. unadjusted annualized new car inflation rate was 0.2% in May, unchanged from the previous month.

U.S. unadjusted energy inflation was 23.5% year-on-year in May, down from 17.9% in May.

U.S. unadjusted food inflation was 3.1% year-on-year in May, down from 3.2% in the previous month.