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January 30th - A depreciating dollar could cause trouble for Trump and the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could put the US at risk of effectively "importing" inflation. Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote, "Trump's disregard for the dollar could backfire, undermining his economic plans and causing Republicans to lose their majority in the House." On Wednesday, Powell stated that the Fed would not discuss the dollar, adding that "the Treasury is the one that regulates the currency." Ironically, however, if inflation worsens, it might be the Fed's actions that help defend the dollar. Further inflation caused by a continued dollar depreciation could prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates as Trump desires, and could even lead to rate hikes.

On January 30th, the Japanese government released data on the 29th showing that, driven by soaring rice prices in the domestic market, Japan's private rice imports in 2025 are projected to increase more than 90 times compared to the previous year. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that private rice imports in Japan last year reached approximately 96,800 tons, the highest since comparable data became available in 2000, roughly 95 times the import volume in 2024. The largest source of rice imports was the United States, accounting for nearly 80%. By month, July saw the highest import volume, exceeding 26,000 tons. Over the past year, Japanese rice prices have surged, repeatedly breaking records. Data from Japanese supermarket rice price monitoring shows that in the week ending January 18th, the average price of a 5kg bag of rice was 4,283 yen (approximately 194 yuan), exceeding the previous week's average price and remaining above 4,000 yen (181 yuan) for 20 consecutive weeks.

January 30th - An explosion occurred at the Tupraş Izmit oil refinery in Kocaeli Province, northwestern Turkey, on the evening of January 29th local time. The explosion took place in a gasoline storage tank area of the refinery, subsequently triggering a large fire. Thick smoke billowed from the scene, flames were visible several kilometers away, and strong tremors were felt, causing panic among local residents. Following the incident, the refinery immediately activated its emergency response plan. For safety reasons, a large number of refinery employees were evacuated. Currently, local fire and safety rescue teams are working to extinguish the fire, and the situation remains under control.

January 30th - According to sources in Israel, as US President Trump "is about to make a decision on action against Iran," Israeli security agencies have recently significantly enhanced their defensive and offensive preparedness, closely monitoring regional developments and focusing on how to provide timely warnings to the public in the event of an Iranian attack. On the same day, senior IDF officials and security officials held their weekly situation assessment meeting, with the Iranian issue being a key focus of discussion. Israeli security officials stated that, given President Trump's recent statements and the increased US military presence in the Middle East, the US appears unwilling to allow the status quo regarding Iran to continue. Israel believes Trump may seek larger-scale action, and the Pentagon has developed related plans, with US Central Command continuing to increase troop deployments to the Middle East. An Israeli official stated that the US and Israeli militaries are maintaining coordination.

According to Punchbowl, Republican senators plan a potential vote tonight to finalize the appropriations package and the Department of Homeland Security's temporary funding bill—a sign that an agreement is imminent. While far from certain, this is undoubtedly a positive sign. It requires the cooperation of all 100 senators. An amendment vote will likely be necessary.

Fitch: Geopolitical tensions exacerbate credit risk in emerging markets in 2026.

Ukrainian President Zelensky: (in response to Trump's statement that Putin agreed to a one-week ceasefire) We look forward to the implementation of the agreement, and de-escalation measures will help make progress toward ending the war.

Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will develop new rules for the forecasting market.

Hang Seng Index futures closed down 0.81% at 27,829 points in overnight trading, a discount of 139 points.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has revoked four NOTAMs for the Caribbean, including one related to Venezuela.

January 30th - Sources familiar with the matter revealed that SpaceX and xAI, both owned by Elon Musk, are discussing a merger ahead of their IPO this year. This merger would integrate Musk's rockets, Starlink satellites, the X social media platform, and the Grok AI chatbot. The plan would inject new momentum into SpaceX's efforts to launch data centers into orbit. Musk is striving to gain a leading position in the rapidly escalating AI race against tech giants like Google, Meta, and OpenAI. Under the proposed merger, xAI stock would be converted into SpaceX stock. Sources say two offices have been established in Nevada to assist with the transaction.

January 30th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract fell 1.38%, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 2.10%, and the SC crude oil futures contract rose 2.98%.

January 30th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the main Shanghai gold futures contract closed down 1.38% at 1202 yuan/gram, the main Shanghai silver futures contract closed up 2.10% at 30358 yuan/kilogram, and the main SC crude oil futures contract closed up 2.98% at 481 yuan/barrel.

The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $2.852 billion from four counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.

Note: US President Trump did not answer any questions before concluding the cabinet meeting.

The US 7-year Treasury auction on January 29th yielded a winning bid of 4.018%, compared to 3.93% previously.

The bid-to-cover ratio for the 7-year U.S. Treasury bond auction ending January 29 was 2.45, compared to 2.51 previously.

US President Trump: A massive fleet is heading to the Middle East.

According to the Financial Times, Apple has acquired Israeli startup Q.AI at a valuation of nearly $2 billion.