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On April 14, Li Yunze, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State Financial Regulatory Commission, met with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates. The two sides exchanged views on the global economic and financial situation, the development of China's financial industry, and Sino-US financial cooperation.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn: A rate hike is not a done deal; the important thing is to focus on the medium-term impact.
A Bank of America global fund manager survey found that 34% of investors expect oil prices to fluctuate between $80 and $90 per barrel by the end of 2026, 28% believe it will be between $70 and $80, and 22% believe it will be between $90 and $100.
A Bank of America global fund manager survey found that 58% of investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the next 12 months, while 46% expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates within the next 12 months.
Bank of America's global fund manager survey: The survey conducted in early April showed that investor sentiment was at its most pessimistic in 10 months.
The onshore yuan closed at 6.8164 against the US dollar at 16:30 on April 14, up 174 points from the previous trading day.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn stated that if the war continues for an extended period and has a secondary effect on prices and wages, causing inflation expectations to begin to decouple, monetary policy will tighten according to the established strategy, namely, a significant tightening.
April 14 - An official from the Iranian embassy in Pakistan stated that the next round of talks between the United States and Iran may be held this week or early next week. Earlier that day, sources indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, later this week for negotiations.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn: The ECB is currently paying particular attention to the duration and intensity of the Middle East conflict, as well as its spillover effects on other sectors of the economy.
On April 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that Ukraine's drone attacks on key Russian oil export routes in the Baltic and Black Sea regions could jeopardize India's crude oil refining operations for some time to come. In its monthly report released Tuesday, the agency stated that 80% of Russia's crude oil exports to India last year came from three main ports—Primorsk, Uster-Luga, and Novorossiysk—which have recently become regular targets of Ukrainian drone attacks. The report stated, "Any prolonged disruption to supplies from Russian ports could have a significant impact on India's refining operations in the coming weeks." Since the outbreak of the Middle East wars, India, the world's third-largest oil importer, has faced energy shortages, soaring oil prices, and slowing economic growth. Russian oil supplies have become a lifeline for the South Asian nation's refineries, while other alternative oil sources, including Iran, have had limited effectiveness, partly due to concerns about suppliers and other intermediaries.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn: Monetary policy should not be based on single prices such as oil, but should focus on the overall economic situation.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn: In the medium-term outlook that monetary policy focuses on, inflation could move in different directions.
ECB Governing Council member Rehn: The Middle East war does not have a direct impact on inflation.
IEA Monthly Report: Gulf oil exports across all shipping routes plummeted by 15.8 million barrels per day month-on-month.
An official from the Iranian embassy in Pakistan said that a new round of talks between the US and Iran may be held this week or early next week.
On April 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that crude oil and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day, compared to about 20 million barrels per day before the crisis—representing about 20% of global supply. Global oil supply decreased by 10.1 million barrels per day last month, a drop of approximately 9%. This was due to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait being forced to halt oil production.
IEA Monthly Report: Russia's oil and fuel export revenue rose to $19.04 billion in March, up from $9.75 billion in February. Russian crude oil exports increased by 270,000 barrels per day in March compared to February, reaching 4.6 million barrels per day.
IEA Monthly Report: Russian crude oil production rose to 8.96 million barrels per day in March from 8.67 million barrels per day in February.
On April 14th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand will shrink this year due to disruptions in oil supplies and supply chains caused by the war in Iran and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA projects that global crude oil demand will decrease by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, the largest drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. The IEA stated, "The outlook for the global oil market balance has never been more uncertain. The ongoing disruptions to oil supply and trade caused by the Middle East war have exacerbated shortages of crude oil and refined products, pushing prices to levels that weaken demand." The agency predicts that oil and gas supplies from the Middle East to international markets will recover by mid-year, but will not return to pre-conflict levels. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade routes are secured, it is expected to take approximately two months to restore stable exports.
Hong Kong stocks closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.82% and the Tech Index rising 0.62%. New consumption concepts rebounded, with Shanghai Auntie (02589.HK) rising 7.5% and Pop Mart (09992.HK) rising 6.5%.
Apr 21, 2023 14:03
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