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On June 12th, Santander analysts stated in a report that they expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but will remain vigilant. They noted, "Policymakers are likely to believe that current monetary policy conditions remain sufficiently tight to buy time while assessing the specific threats of sustained inflationary risks stemming from the Middle East shock." Currently, slowing inflation and a weak labor market suggest a limited risk of a second round of price increases, but this could change if the war with Iran continues. "Ultimately, if the duration of the crisis remains a major concern after the summer, we believe there is a high probability that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates in September."

The Venezuelan government condemned the oil spill in Trinidad and Tobago in a statement.

EU member states have reached a consensus on expanding carbon border taxes.

Shell will suspend share buybacks until July 14.

BlackRock (BLK.N): It has a good ability to cope with the current environment.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister: A new oil spill has occurred in the Trinidad and Tobago direction, and the situation is more serious than the one in May.

BlackRock (BLK.N): Maintain significant capital flexibility.

Meta Platforms (META.O): Will donate Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses to every blind veteran in the United States.

BlackRock's (BLK.N) Hlend fund has set a redemption cap of 5%.

On June 12, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) released the "Rules for Certification of Measurement Management Systems" and the "Rules for Certification of Intellectual Property Management Systems," which will officially take effect on September 1. Both rules follow a "general requirements + specific requirements" structure. The general requirements section covers 13 aspects, including the scope of application, certification basis, basic requirements for certification bodies and personnel, certification procedures, certification certificates and certification marks, and the suspension, revocation, and cancellation of certification certificates. The specific requirements section is tailored to the professional characteristics of different certification fields. The "Rules for Certification of Measurement Management Systems" emphasizes the configuration of measurement equipment involved in the certification business scope and the potential consequences of measurement failures and errors. The "Rules for Certification of Intellectual Property Management Systems" emphasizes the characteristics of the acquisition, maintenance, utilization, and protection of intellectual property, and are key influencing factors in activities such as classifying certification risk levels, assessing the professional fields of certification auditors, setting certification application acceptance conditions, scheduling audit times, planning audit schemes, and conducting on-site audits.

British Prime Minister Starmer: Every pound must be spent responsibly.

The French presidential palace stated that President Macron's attendance at the Franco-Italian summit will help deepen cooperation between the two countries in areas such as energy and defense.

Britain's new defense secretary: Investment plans are still being finalized.

On June 12th, Morgan Stanley economist Bruna Skarica noted in a report that UK monthly GDP appears to be benefiting again from strong performance in the white-collar services sector, particularly the information and communications technology (ICT) industry. She pointed out that output in this sector is currently up 6.7% year-on-year, and has grown by 45.4% since the fourth quarter of 2019, while the overall economy has only grown by 6% during the same period. "It seems far from a coincidence that the sector most vulnerable to the rapid spread of artificial intelligence is simultaneously driving GDP growth and productivity gains," Skarica added. Given that the Bank of England stated last year that structural productivity growth in the UK was negative, the bank should comment further on this this year.

On June 12th, HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar is currently trading below levels implied by market expectations of US interest rates. They stated that the dollar's reaction has been limited as recent market expectations have shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes. They believe this may reflect the loose financial environment in the US and market expectations for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They added that the dollar needs clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve fails to support rate hike expectations at next week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble."

On June 12th, analysts at Nomura Securities stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July to avoid the risk of a second wave of inflation. However, with inflation risks diminishing, they believe the Bank of England is likely to resume rate cuts in 2027. LSEG data shows that investors expect a 34% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England in July.

On June 12th, Berenberg analysts stated in a report that the Bank of England's reluctance to raise interest rates compared to the European Central Bank appears to have its reasons. They noted that the UK's labor market is weaker than the Eurozone's, and the service sector's contribution to inflation is no longer as significant as it once was. Meanwhile, analysts pointed out that the UK's interest rate policy was already tighter before the energy shock, and its fiscal situation remained relatively strained. They added that after a strong start to the year, the UK is now facing an economic slowdown as the situation in Iran continues to drag down economic activity. Due to a "statistical illusion" caused by seasonal changes in consumption patterns since the pandemic, the first quarter's economic performance was actually weaker than it appeared. The analysts stated, "We predict that the economy will stagnate this summer, with zero quarterly GDP growth in the second and third quarters."

A Reuters poll predicts the Bank of England will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% this year; 25 economists surveyed expect at least one rate hike of 25 basis points, while 6 predict one rate cut.