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February 19th - Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that the Fed meeting minutes showed more officials were less concerned about the labor market, while concerns about inflation increased. The minutes stated that most officials cautioned that progress in reducing inflation "may be slower and more uneven than generally expected." They considered the risk of inflation persistently above the Fed's 2% target "significant." Similarly, according to the minutes, Fed staff described a more persistent, above-target inflation range as "a significant risk." Data released after the January meeting may embolden officials who believe there is no need to rush further rate cuts, and the market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady again at next month's meeting. Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers added 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%, easing concerns about a more severe slowdown in the labor market. Nevertheless, annual revised data showed a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past year.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: January food price surge may be attributed to weather.

February 19th - On February 18th local time, Russia, the United States, and Ukraine responded to the latest round of trilateral talks in Geneva. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the latest round of trilateral contact between the US, Russia, and Ukraine "made meaningful progress," and all parties agreed to continue negotiations. However, Levitt also stated that the US continues to sell weapons to its NATO allies for its own defense. Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff and member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, Budanov, posted on his official social media platform on the 18th that another round of negotiations in Geneva had concluded, and while the dialogue was difficult, it was very important. He stated that the Ukrainian team is prepared to continue negotiations in the near future. Ukraine will persevere. Ukrainian sources stated that the military group made progress on coordinating procedural issues. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated on the evening of the 18th that the Geneva negotiations that day lasted shorter than the first day, but this did not mean there was no progress; the Russian delegation participating in the Geneva negotiations would report to President Putin immediately.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The sanctions imposed on Moscow have hindered the development of good economic and trade relations between the United States and Russia."

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: If we see a shift in pricing behavior, a much stronger economic recovery, and the ability to withstand higher interest rates, we will act and tighten policy sooner rather than later.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: As the economy recovers, there remains uncertainty about how businesses will adjust their pricing behavior.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: I am not comfortable at all with inflation at 3.1%.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: If the inflation outlook changes, the committee will adjust its policy stance to ensure that inflation returns to the target.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Federal Reserve staff have a stronger outlook on economic activity than in December, expecting inflation to be slightly higher than previously anticipated and the unemployment rate to gradually decline starting in 2026.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: A minority of participants favored a rate cut in January.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Several participants believed that further rate cuts could undermine market perception of the commitment to the inflation target.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Participants generally agreed that, with appropriate monetary policy, the labor market is likely to stabilize first this year and then improve.

The White House: Yesterday's talks on Ukraine made meaningful progress.

The White House: Iran is expected to provide more detailed information in the coming weeks.