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Bank of Japan: The trade policies announced to date have altered the trend of globalization to some extent.
Bank of Japan: Rising crude oil prices may be more easily transmitted to the prices of various goods and services than in the past.
Bank of Japan: We also need to pay attention to the risk that food prices may exceed expectations due to rising raw material market prices.
Bank of Japan: Exchange rate fluctuations are now more likely to affect prices than in the past.
On April 28th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, but three of its nine policy board members proposed a rate hike, reflecting the bank's concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. The 6-3 vote was the largest split since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office. The BOJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the end of its two-day meeting, in line with market expectations. Board members Hajime Takada, Naoki Tamura, and Junko Nakagawa dissented, advocating for a rate hike to 1.0%. Nakagawa argued that despite the continued uncertainty in the Middle East, price risks were skewed to the upside in a loose financial environment, considering economic developments. Tamura believed that given the significantly upside price risks, the BOJ should set its policy rate as close as possible to the neutral rate. Takada argued that Japan's price stability objective had been largely achieved, and that price risks were clearly skewed to the upside due to the secondary effects of price increases caused by overseas developments. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to explain the decision to the media later.
The Bank of Japan stated that while strong business fixed investment could drive global economic growth, if corporate profits fail to expand in tandem with such investment, there could be downward pressure and asset prices could change.
On April 28th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan." At the conference, a relevant official from the China Meteorological Administration pointed out that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, meteorological service supply will be further optimized, deeply integrated into and empowering the modern economic system, and the strength, depth, and effectiveness of meteorological services will be expanded. Facing key areas such as energy, transportation, and the low-altitude economy, the meteorological department will promote meteorological services to cover the entire industrial chain, focusing on incorporating meteorological standards into infrastructure construction from the outset. For example, in the transportation sector, a threshold triggering mechanism will be explored, linking speed limits, service shutdowns, and equipment reinforcement when key indicators such as forecast visibility and road surface temperature reach thresholds. For different scenarios such as new energy bases in desert areas and offshore wind power, the level of regional and station-level power forecast services will be improved. In the low-altitude domain, flight safety and operational efficiency are significantly affected by meteorological conditions, placing higher demands on meteorological services.
On April 28th, according to foreign media reports, Malaysian palm oil futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range in early trading on Tuesday. Stronger crude oil and Chicago soybean oil prices provided support, while weakness in related edible oil varieties in the Dalian market exerted pressure, with the two forces offsetting each other. International oil prices continued their upward trend on Tuesday as the process of ending the US-Iran conflict appeared to have stalled. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transport artery, remains largely closed, preventing energy supplies from major Middle Eastern oil-producing regions from effectively flowing to global buyers. The continued strength of crude oil futures has significantly increased the attractiveness of palm oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. Executives at Indonesian state-owned palm oil company Agrinas Palma Nusantara stated that they expect the company's crude palm oil production to reach approximately 2 million tons in 2026. This figure is almost double their previous estimate of 1.07 million tons.
The Bank of Japan stated that it will continue to raise interest rates based on developments in the economy, prices, and financial markets.
The Bank of Japan's quarterly report stated that potential consumer inflation is likely to gradually accelerate and converge towards a level consistent with the price target from the second half of fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2027.
The Bank of Japan stated that it will implement monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably and stably.
Bank of Japan: Real interest rates remain significantly low.
Bank of Japan: Corporate profits and real household income will be affected by factors such as deteriorating terms of trade, reflecting the impact of rising crude oil prices.
Bank of Japan: We must carefully examine whether underlying inflation has taken root at around 2%.
The Bank of Japan stated that the economy will be supported by various government measures, including fuel subsidies; the loose financial environment will also support the economy.
Bank of Japan: Wages and prices may face greater upward pressure than the output gap suggests.
Bank of Japan: The outlook faces multiple risks.
Bank of Japan: Private consumption will remain largely unchanged.
Bank of Japan: We must pay special attention to the impact of future developments in the Middle East on financial and foreign exchange markets.
Bank of Japan: Underlying economic growth is expected to remain slightly positive.
Apr 21, 2023 14:03
Apr 21, 2023 13:58
Apr 20, 2023 13:54