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On January 29th, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its policy rate unchanged at its January 2026 meeting was in line with market expectations. Both the meeting statement and Powell's remarks indicated signs of stabilization in the US unemployment rate, and Powell stated that the policy rate was in a good position. Powell predicted that tariff inflation would peak later than the first quarter, around mid-year, and that it remained uncertain whether Trump would introduce new substantive tariff policies. Therefore, CITIC Securities expects no further rate cuts during Powell's remaining two meetings as Fed Chairman. Regarding asset prices, US stocks, bonds, and the dollar saw relatively small fluctuations, while gold prices were largely driven by geopolitical factors and market sentiment.

On January 29th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting was in line with market expectations. Governor Waller's dissenting vote may be related to his desire to be nominated as the next Fed Chair. The monetary policy statement indicated that "the unemployment rate has stabilized," and Powell stated that monetary policy is "in the right place," suggesting a higher threshold for another rate cut in the near term. Beyond this, Powell did not provide much guidance and avoided other questions unrelated to interest rate setting. We believe the Fed is still likely to cut rates twice in 2026, but the first cut may be delayed until the second quarter. The core problem of the US economy is not insufficient growth, but rather income inequality and affordability pressures on ordinary families. These structural problems cannot be solved by monetary policy alone; instead, they may prompt the government to adopt more non-market interventionist policies to address voters' concerns.

SK Hynix: Chip supply will remain tight in the short term.

January 29th - According to MiniMax, the MiniMax Music 2.5 was officially released on January 29th. It is reported that compared to its predecessor, Music 2.5 achieves breakthroughs in two major technical challenges: "segment-level strong control" and "physical-level high fidelity."

SK Hynix: Production of the HBM4 chip requested by the customer has begun.

January 29th - According to foreign media reports, two US officials revealed on Wednesday that the US is transferring an oil tanker seized this month to Venezuela, marking the first time the Trump administration has returned such a tanker. The US has been continuously seizing oil tankers linked to Venezuela for months, carrying out seven seizures since the end of last year. The officials stated that the tanker being transferred to Venezuelan authorities is the Panamanian-flagged supertanker "Sofia." They did not specify the reason for the return. The "Sofia" was intercepted by the Coast Guard and US military on January 7th. At the time, the US government described the tanker as a "stateless, sanctioned" shadow fleet tanker.

On January 29th, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated during an earnings call on January 28th that the company will cease production of the Model S and Model X vehicles next quarter. "It's time to honor the Model S and Model X projects as we truly move towards a future centered on self-driving technology," Musk said. Musk also revealed that Tesla is replacing the Model S and Model X production lines at its Fremont, California factory with Optimus production lines, with a long-term goal of achieving an annual production capacity of one million robots.

According to foreign media reports on January 29th, crude palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open higher on Thursday morning, mainly due to strong palm oil exports and a rise in international crude oil futures. A decline in Malaysian production in January also helped maintain the upward momentum of palm oil prices. Shipping surveyors stated that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 8% to 10% month-on-month from January 1st to 25th.

1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 6.46% to $5411.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts but released expectations of future easing, coupled with market bets on a dovish Fed chair candidate, highlighting the safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties of precious metals. Meanwhile, the CME Group's adjustment of margin parameters for some precious metals futures may also exacerbate short-term volatility. 2. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 1.78% at $63.5 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 1.56% to $67.63 per barrel. Trump warned Iran to reach an agreement as soon as possible, citing potential risks to Iranian oil supply. Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.295 million barrels last week, a larger-than-expected decline, tightening supply and supporting higher oil prices. 3. Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 3.52% to $56,795/ton, LME aluminum up 1.59% to $3,263.5/ton, and LME nickel up 1.12% to $18,440/ton. LME copper and zinc saw slight gains, while LME lead fell slightly. 4. US Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.596%, the 3-year yield fell 0.56 basis points to 3.640%, the 5-year yield rose 25.90 basis points to 3.828%, the 10-year yield rose 0.20 basis points to 4.243%, and the 30-year yield fell 0.31 basis points to 4.855%. 5. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% to 49,015.6 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.01% to 6,978.03 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.17% to 23,857.45 points. Large-cap tech stocks were mixed: the Wind U.S. Tech Giants Index rose 0.19%, Nvidia rose 1.59%, and Google, Microsoft, and Tesla all saw slight gains. Most semiconductor stocks closed higher, with Intel rising 11%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.32%. U.S. Treasury yields rose. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged and raised its assessment of economic growth. The market predicts that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of Powell's term. 6. Major European stock indices all fell. Germany's DAX index fell 0.29% to 24,822.79 points, France's CAC40 index fell 1.06% to 8,066.68 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.52% to 10,154.43 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.75%. US President Trump again threatened Iran, saying the next strike would be more severe, putting pressure on market risk appetite.

Tesla's CFO: After utilizing internal resources, the company may finance capital expenditures through further debt or other means.

Tesla CFO: As Optimus production and expansion begin, capital expenditures are being invested in computing to train Optimus.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: We don’t plan to sell chips outside of Tesla because we need them.

Microsoft executive: Rising memory prices will impact capital expenditures.

Samsung Electronics: Profits in its home appliance business declined in the fourth quarter, partly due to the impact of global tariffs.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: The company currently has no plans for layoffs.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: We expect to increase the number of employees at the Fremont factory over time.

Microsoft executives say Windows OEM revenue is expected to decline by about 10% as rising memory chip prices may impact the PC market.