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Real-time News
On March 29th, Wan Zhe, a professor of economics at Beijing Normal University, stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by Middle East conflicts have depended on the development of the geopolitical situation. Currently, the scale of the supply shock may exceed that of the past. The supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could account for 15% to 20% of global supply. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, the risk of spillover from the conflict is escalating, and there is even a risk of it spreading into a full-blown conflict in the Middle East. Market panic is stronger than in historical local wars. Regarding future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the Houthi rebels continue their attacks but do not completely blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and there is no major diplomatic breakthrough, then prices should remain above $100. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, both core shipping lanes are simultaneously disrupted, and the conflict expands to more countries, then prices will certainly continue to rise. If a major diplomatic breakthrough occurs and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices may quickly fall back below $100.March 29 – According to Yonhap News Agency, The Korea Times, and other foreign media reports, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko stated in an interview with Russias TASS news agency on the 28th that Russia would be forced to take retaliatory measures if South Korea provides lethal weapons to Ukraine. Rudenko stated, "We (Russia) have consistently conveyed Russias principled position on this issue to South Korea through various channels, namely that South Korea should not participate directly or indirectly in providing lethal weapons to the Kyiv regime, including as part of the Ukraine Priority Needs List mechanism." "Otherwise, bilateral relations between Russia and South Korea could be severely affected, and we would be forced to take retaliatory measures. I hope we will not be forced to take such steps."US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims to have destroyed two enemy refueling aircraft. 2. Irans Bushehr nuclear power plant attacked three times in 10 days. 3. Iran claims oil exports from Kharg Island are proceeding normally. 4. Iranian military claims to have struck two US "hidden strongholds" in Dubai. 5. Iranian Parliament Speaker: A strong Iranian counterattack will accelerate the collapse of the Israeli regime. 6. This round of US-Israel-Iran conflict has damaged over 90,000 civilian facilities in Iran. 7. Iran claims to have struck foreign terrorist groups and captured several militants. 8. Over 100 cluster bombs dropped by the US and Israel were discovered and destroyed in Irans Fars province. 9. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: A US F-16 fighter jet was hit in southern Fars province, Iran. 10. Iranian President says no preemptive strikes but retaliation is possible; US statements and actions are "contradictory," exacerbating distrust within Iran. 11. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: If the US and Israel continue their attacks on Irans industrial system, Irans subsequent retaliation will be "beyond their imagination." 12. Market news: Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Kia and his wife were killed in an attack a few days ago. ②USA 1. The US military denies that its personnel were attacked in Dubai. 2. US Marines arrive in the US Central Commands area of responsibility. 3. The US may have deployed anti-tank mines in Iran, dropped by aircraft. 4. A US military base in Saudi Arabia was attacked; 12 US soldiers were injured and a refueling aircraft was damaged. 5. US Central Command announces one-month results of "Operation Epic Fury": over 11,000 targets were struck, and over 150 Iranian naval vessels were destroyed. 6. US officials say the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. ③Israel 1. The Israeli Chief of Staff says the Israeli conventional forces have collapsed. 2. The Israeli military detected a new round of missile launches from Iran towards Israel. 3. Houthi drones attacked southern Israel. 4. Israeli media: Houthi rebels join the war, launching missiles at Israel. 5. Israeli military deploys over 50 warplanes to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and weapons bases. 6. Israeli military claims attacks on weapons research and production facilities, including the headquarters of Irans Maritime Industry Organization. 7. Israeli military claims Hezbollah launched approximately 250 rockets in the past day. 8. Israeli military claims at least 800 Hezbollah militants killed. 9. US media: Continued Iranian attacks have strained interceptor stockpiles, leading Israel to reduce the use of advanced missile interceptors. 10. Yemens Houthi rebels claim to have launched a second round of missile and drone attacks on Israel on Saturday. 11. An Israeli military spokesperson stated that the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missiles at Israel, joining the war with Iran, and Israel will respond. ④Other 1. Salara port in Oman was attacked by drones. 2. The Yemeni government condemns Iran for dragging it into the regional conflict. 3. Mertz says the US and Israel cannot achieve regime change in Iran. 4. UAE President meets with Zelensky to discuss security situation. 5. Pakistan: Quadrilateral foreign ministers to hold meeting on Middle East situation. 6. UAE Global Aluminium production base damaged in attack. 7. Pakistani Prime Minister speaks with Iranian President for over an hour. 8. Yemens Houthi rebels: fire a missile at Israel as a warning. 9. Sources: Saudi Arabias east-west oil pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels per day. 10. Indian Prime Minister: speaks with Saudi Crown Prince to discuss ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 11. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry denies Iranian claims that it destroyed a Ukrainian air defense weapons depot in Dubai. 12. Missile debris falls near Khalifa Economic Zone in Abu Dhabi, UAE, injuring five people. 13. Qatari Ministry of Defense: Qatar was attacked by multiple drones from Iran on Saturday; all drones were intercepted. 14. According to Kuwait News Agency: Kuwaits civil aviation authority reported multiple drone attacks on Kuwait International Airport; no injuries were reported. The drone attack caused "significant" damage to the airports radar system. 15. Bahrain Aluminium said its facilities were attacked by Iran on Saturday, with two people sustaining minor injuries, and it is assessing the damage to its facilities. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Malaysia said Iran allowed Malaysian tankers to remain in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Pakistan said Iran has agreed to allow 20 more Pakistani ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Two more liquefied petroleum gas tankers bound for India passed through the Strait of Hormuz and left the Persian Gulf. Gaza Situation: 1. Israel Defense Forces: Two senior members of Hezbollahs communications department were killed in an airstrike in Beirut last night. The attack resulted in the deaths of Ayub Hussein Yaqub and Arthur Mohammed Mubarak.Conflict Updates: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Air defense forces shot down 155 Ukrainian drones overnight in multiple locations. 2. A Ukrainian Flamingo missile reportedly struck a Promsintez explosives production plant in Russias Samara region. 3. Ukrainian General Staff: Ukrainian forces attacked the Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russias Yaroslavl region. 4. Naftogaz: Russia attacked a gas production facility in Poltava region, resulting in one death. Peace Talks: 1. Zelensky: The US is pressuring Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas. 2. Zelensky: Willing to hold trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia anywhere. 3. Putin stated that Russia does not rule out the possibility of reconciliation with European countries. Other Updates: 1. Qatari Ministry of Defense: Ukraine and Qatar signed a defense cooperation agreement. 2. Zelensky stated that Kyiv hopes Middle Eastern countries will provide diesel aid to Ukraine, in which case Ukraine can help them counter Irans Shahed drones. 3. Russia and Turkey discussed ensuring regional energy security. 4. Russia will recruit 135,000 soldiers in the fall of 2025 and has pledged not to send them to special military operation areas.U.S. officials say the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran.