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On February 8, the median U.S. 1-year inflation forecast rose to its highest level since November 2023. Capital Economics assistant economist Ruben Gargallo Abergus wrote: "This at least adds another reason for the Fed to remain cautious and suspend the easing cycle for a while." Higher inflation expectations are not the only inflation headwinds the Fed is currently facing. Wage growth continued to exceed expectations in January, which could push up inflation in the service sector. Economists expect Fed officials to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18-19 policy meeting, and may even extend the suspension of rate cuts at the June meeting.The Israeli military says it has struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.According to Iranian state media reports, Irans Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting senior Hamas leaders in Tehran.On February 8, four large model application products under Baidu Smart Cloud, namely Keyue, Xiling, Yijian and Zhenzhi, were officially launched with access to the new version of the DeepSeek model.On February 8, according to Nikkei Chinese, Japans soaring food prices are dragging down personal consumption. The results of the household survey of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan showed that consumer spending in 2024 actually decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The "Engel coefficient", which indicates the proportion of food in consumer spending, is 28.3%, a 43-year high. Monthly spending in December 2024 actually increased by 2.7%, and consumption showed a recovery trend. From the perspective of the composition of consumer spending in 2024, the negative factors that actually contributed the most to consumer spending are transportation and communications, which actually decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. Due to the exposure of certification violations by some Japanese automakers, automobile production was suspended for a time, affecting consumption.

Trading Research

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