EUR/USD
1.08987
0.430%
Gold
3153.55
0.683%
Oil
69.412
-1.430%
USD/JPY
147.929
-0.906%
GBP/USD
1.30461
0.304%
GBP/JPY
192.989
-0.553%
Real-time News
On April 3, CICC pointed out that Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, which exceeded market expectations. Reciprocal tariffs use a combination of "carpet-style" tariffs and "one country, one tariff rate", covering more than 60 major economies. Calculations show that if these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. CICC believes that reciprocal tariffs may increase uncertainty and market concerns and aggravate the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy. Calculations show that tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although they may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. Faced with the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve can only choose to wait and see, and it may be difficult to cut interest rates in the short term. This will further increase the risk of economic downturn and increase the pressure on the market to adjust downward.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: US tariffs may have a "chilling effect" on investment and spending.RBA Financial Stability Assessment Report: Australian banks are well capitalized and can absorb large loan losses. It is important that bank lending standards remain sound. Budget pressures are prevalent among Australian households, but are expected to ease. There are concerns that low interest rates will encourage households to over-indebtedness.RBA Financial Stability Assessment: The Australian financial system is in a good position to weather a severe global recession. Most households are in good financial shape and banks have limited the risk of widespread disruption.Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Assessment Report: Risk aversion will increase financing costs and cause liquidity tightness.
