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On June 24th, US President Trump stated that Iran told the US it did not seek or collect tolls, insurance fees, or any other form of payment from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, subsequently extending the decline in oil prices. Both Brent and WTI crude fell by more than 3%. His remarks came as traders became increasingly optimistic that supplies through the Strait of Hormuz would gradually return to normal, with supplies from major Gulf oil-producing countries expected to recover soon.New York gold futures fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time since November last year, down 3.5% on the day.New York silver futures plunged 6.00% on the day, currently trading at $58.34 per ounce.June 24th - The U.S. current account deficit widened to $226.8 billion in the first quarter, an increase of $5.8 billion, or 2.6%, from the revised $221.1 billion in the fourth quarter of last year. The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP rose slightly to 2.9% from 2.8%. The widening deficit was not due to trade. The goods trade deficit actually narrowed, with exports of goods and services jumping $50 billion to $1.38 trillion. The main drag came from primary income, which shifted from a surplus in the fourth quarter to a deficit in the first quarter. This account reflects the difference between the returns on foreign assets held by U.S. residents and the returns on U.S. assets held by foreign residents. This shift reveals a change in relative returns and rising costs of financing an increasingly unbalanced balance sheet. It is noteworthy that the annual revision was substantial. The fourth-quarter deficit was revised to -$221.1 billion from an initial -$190.7 billion, and the net international investment position was also revised by nearly $6 trillion.The U.S. current account deficit in the first quarter was $226.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $215 billion and a revised deficit of $221.1 billion in the previous quarter (originally reported as $190.7 billion).

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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