EUR/USD 1.15610
0.327%
Gold 4343.88
2.439%
Oil 76.270
-1.423%
USD/JPY 157.556
-0.559%
GBP/USD 1.34972
0.326%
GBP/JPY 212.662
-0.239%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
HSBCs preview of the US July CPI: It is expected that several core inflation components will cool down more than expected, leading to both the overall CPI and core CPI falling short of market expectations.August 9th - The US CPI report, to be released next Wednesday, is undoubtedly the most closely watched data of the week. Economists generally expect the annual inflation rate to slow slightly, but core inflation is likely to remain high, reflecting persistent price pressures in the services and housing sectors. According to the latest data, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, emphasizing that it needs further assurance that inflation is sustainably approaching its 2% target before considering interest rate cuts.August 9th - As Typhoon Dolphin approaches, its impact on Shanghai continues to intensify, making the flood control situation severe. Mayor Gong Zheng chaired a video conference today (August 9th) to coordinate typhoon defense and response efforts, conducting further checks, deployments, and implementation of typhoon preparedness measures.According to real-time data from Lighthouse Pro, as of 12:04 PM on August 9th, the film "The Eight Immortals!" had grossed over 1.4 billion yuan.Conflict Updates: 1. Russian Operations Command: The Ilsky oil refinery caught fire due to drone debris. 2. Ukraine claims attacks in Kyiv and other areas, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries. 3. Local authorities state the fire at the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar has been extinguished. 4. According to Interfax: Russia claims a drone attacked a ship carrying weapons for the Ukrainian military east of Odessa. 5. The Ukrainian military states that Ukrainian troops attacked the Ilsky and Sizlan oil refineries in Russia, causing the fire. Other Updates: 1. US Officials: Ukraine agrees to avoid attacks on non-Russian oil tankers and Black Sea oil facilities. 2. New Zealand imposes new sanctions on Russia following US actions. 3. Zelensky: The US will provide Ukraine with Patriot interceptor missiles monthly. 4. Ukrainian President Zelensky expresses gratitude for the US Senates passage of the Russian sanctions bill. 5. Zelensky visits Serbia as Russias influence weakens. 6. Sources: Musk refused to allow Ukraine to use Starlink to strike targets within Russia. 7. A Ukrainian drone violated Bulgarian airspace and exploded, endangering key energy facilities. Bulgaria has summoned the Ukrainian ambassador regarding the incident. 8. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: Ukraine has no intention of launching any equipment towards Bulgaria.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


Suggestion