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April 12 - According to Iranian sources early this morning, the Iran-US negotiations ended minutes earlier, with no agreement reached due to "US greed and ambition."On April 12, Irans Tasnim News Agency reported that some Western media outlets have begun to make "inaccurate descriptions" of the atmosphere surrounding the Iran-US negotiations in Islamabad, as the United States has failed to achieve its objectives in the talks. The report stated that only the Iranian and US negotiating teams and Pakistani officials were present at the Serena Hotel, and no media were allowed entry. Therefore, reports of "fierce clashes in the meeting room" and "handshakes between members of both sides" are purely media hype by the US to cover up its "repeated failures and weak position" in the negotiations. According to previous reports from Iranian media citing informed sources, the Iran-US negotiations in Islamabad have made no substantial progress since they began due to the USs "exorbitant demands." Some Western media outlets are exaggerating the "positive atmosphere" of the negotiations for the purpose of influencing international energy prices. Although there has been some progress in the expert-level talks, the two sides still have serious differences on several issues, including the Strait of Hormuz.U.S. Vice President Vance: We bring a very simple proposal, a way to reach an understanding, which is our final and best solution.U.S. Vice President Vance: We are quite flexible.US Vice President Vance: It needs to be clearly confirmed that Iran will not seek nuclear weapons.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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