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February 7th - U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz stated that the United States will pay part of the billions of dollars in arrears owed to the UN within weeks, while emphasizing the need for continued UN reform. This comes after UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the UNs financial situation, stating that the UN faces the risk of "imminent financial collapse" due to member states unpaid dues. In a telephone interview, Walz said the first payment would be seen soon, and while the final amount has not yet been determined, he believes it will be finalized within weeks.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a 3.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Tengchong City, Baoshan City, Yunnan Province at 12:00 on February 7, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.On February 7th, CNN reported that US President Trump claimed that renaming Pennsylvania Station in New York City as "Trump Station" was a proposal by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer quickly refuted this claim. "Schumer suggested to me that Pennsylvania Station be renamed Trump Station," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that many people, including union members, Democrats, and Republicans, had made the suggestion, "but theres been no progress." Schumer immediately refuted Trumps claim, accusing him of lying about the details of their conversation. "Completely a lie," Schumer posted on social media platform X. "He knows it. Everyone knows it. Only one person can restart this project, and he can do it easily."February 7 – The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on February 6 that Bangladesh had one case of Nipah virus infection, with no other related cases identified. According to a WHO press release that day, the infected person is a woman aged 40 to 50 living in the Rajshahi district of Bangladesh. She developed fever and neurological symptoms on January 21 and was diagnosed with Nipah virus on January 29. Bangladeshi authorities notified the WHO on February 3. The woman had no recent travel history but had consumed raw date juice. Her 35 close contacts tested negative for Nipah virus.February 7th - US President Trump stated on the 6th that the US, Russia, and Ukraine held "very good" talks that day regarding resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Answering reporters questions aboard Air Force One, Trump said, "We had very, very good talks with Russia and Ukraine today. Something might happen." However, he did not elaborate further. It is understood that the issue of Ukrainian territory and security guarantees remains the sticking point in the negotiations. The US and Ukraine recently discussed the possibility of reaching a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement in March, but this is proving very difficult, and the timetable may be delayed.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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