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On May 3, according to a report by Irans Fars News Agency on May 2, Sardar Asadi, a senior official at the Khatnam Anbia Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces, stated that the possibility of another conflict between Iran and the United States is high, but Iran is fully prepared. Asadi said there is evidence that the United States is not adhering to any agreements, and that the words and actions of US officials are more of a propaganda strategy to prevent a drop in oil prices and extricate themselves from "a predicament of their own making." Asadi stated that the Iranian Armed Forces are fully prepared for any "risky and foolish actions" that the United States may take.The chairmen of the U.S. Senate and House Armed Services Committees expressed deep concern over the U.S. decision to withdraw a brigade-sized force from Germany.On May 3, when asked when and how he would insure ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Berkshire Hathaways Vice Chairman for Insurance, Ajit Jain, gave a concise answer: "The short answer is—it depends on the price." Jain stated, "We do have a small stake in an established project to insure ships in the Strait of Hormuz. But no deals have been finalized yet." Jain also pointed out that U.S. Navy escort for the ships would be a key prerequisite for the projects coverage conditions. "If we can meet our own coverage conditions, we will insure this type of risk at a price level that we deem appropriate."On May 3, Qazem Gharibabadi, Irans Deputy Foreign Minister in charge of legal and international affairs, met with ambassadors from various countries stationed in Tehran on Saturday to discuss what he called Irans proposals to end the war and aggression launched by the US and Israel. Gharibabadi stated that Iran is fully prepared to defend itself against any attacks against its people, and that Tehran remains committed to diplomatic mediation based on national interests. He said that Iran has submitted a proposal through Pakistan as a mediator to permanently end this imposed war, and that the initiative now rests with the US, which must choose between a diplomatic path or a continued confrontational stance. He added that Iran is prepared for both scenarios to safeguard its national interests and security, while remaining pessimistic and distrustful of the US and its diplomatic sincerity.On May 3, local time, the Ukrainian presidential website announced that President Zelenskyy had signed a presidential decree approving the National Security and Defense Councils decision to impose targeted sanctions on five individuals. The sanctions were reportedly imposed because the actions of these individuals threatened Ukraines national interests, security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The five individuals targeted are a Ukrainian lawyer, a Ukrainian businessman, a Russian businessman, and two Russian sports promoters.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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