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On April 25th, it was reported that Taichu Yuanqi, a domestic AI chip company, has completed deep and rapid adaptation and collaborative optimization of DeepSeek-V4 based on its self-developed AI accelerator card and SDAA software stack. It is understood that Taichu Yuanqi has conducted deeper operator fusion and communication optimization for the new architectural features of DeepSeek-V4, such as mHC and Muon optimizer. At the same time, it has improved the Teco-VLLM inference engine and SDAA development toolchain, lowering the barrier for users from "trial use" to "mass production".April 25th - The 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress will be held in Beijing from April 27th to 30th, where the draft Medical Security Law will be submitted for deliberation. The draft will expand the coverage of maternity insurance and clarify that the maternity insurance fund and the basic medical insurance fund for employees will be merged into a single account.Romanias Ministry of Defense: During Russias nighttime attack on Ukraine, drone debris damaged an outbuilding and a utility pole in the city of Galats.On April 25th, it was reported that on April 24th, 2026, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) held a system-wide warning education meeting and a meeting to promote the study and education on establishing and practicing a correct view of performance. Pan Gongsheng, Secretary of the Party Committee and Governor of the PBOC, delivered a speech and a Party lecture. Pan Gongsheng pointed out that it is necessary to promote the high-quality development of the central banks work. Based on the responsibilities of the PBOC, it is crucial to deeply analyze the performance-related issues behind economic and financial problems, strictly and practically implement the rectification measures following central inspections and audits, continuously address the "involutionary" competition among financial institutions, effectively coordinate the "five major tasks" in the financial sector, actively and steadily promote the resolution of local government financing platform debt and risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions, maintain a high-pressure crackdown on illegal financial activities in related fields, and continuously optimize the central banks management and services for county-level finance.On April 25th, in preparation for King Charles IIIs visit to the United States, the British flag was flown in Washington, D.C., but some residents noticed that many Australian flags were also displayed. A Washington, D.C. official stated that after discovering the error, they quickly replaced the incorrectly displayed Australian flags with British flags, but the cause of the error is still under investigation. A Buckingham Palace spokesperson announced on April 14th that King Charles III would begin a four-day visit to the United States on April 27th.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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