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Conflict Situation: 1. Market News: Russian attacks on the Kharkiv region of Ukraine have resulted in 5 deaths and 18 injuries. 2. Russian Ministry of Defense: A ceasefire will be implemented from May 8th to 9th, 2026, and Russia hopes that Ukraine will reciprocate. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: If Ukraine attempts to disrupt Victory Day celebrations, a large-scale retaliatory missile attack will be launched on the center of Kyiv. 4. Zelensky: Ukraine has not received any proposals regarding a ceasefire on May 9th, and will implement a unilateral ceasefire starting at midnight on the 6th. Other Situations: 1. NATO stated it will continue to provide Ukraine with anti-missile missiles. 2. Zelensky called for European participation in the Ukraine-Russia negotiations. 3. The Russian Federal Security Service arrested 150 underground weapons manufacturers. 4. Zelensky: Ukraine and Europe agreed to accelerate the implementation of the drone cooperation agreement. 5. Austria announced the expulsion of three Russian diplomats; Russia stated it will respond strongly to Austrias decision.Market news: Meta Platforms (META.O) is developing a financing plan for a data center in El Paso, Texas, with a total amount potentially reaching approximately $13 billion. According to sources familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase are leading the process.According to CBS, U.S. Department of Defense officials revealed on Monday that one of the two missing U.S. soldiers in Morocco jumped into the water in an attempt to rescue the other missing soldier. As of Monday, the search and rescue operation was still ongoing.British government: The British Prime Minister stated that the UK will continue to support the defense operations of its partners in the Gulf region.On May 5th, United Pilots Association (UPA) President Silva stated in an email that United Airlines (UAL.O) CEO Kirbys vision could be "transformative" for passengers, the community, and American Airlines pilots. While the email did not endorse a merger between United and American Airlines, Silva used Kirbys proposal as an opportunity to again criticize American Airlines management—who are facing union pressure due to poor company performance. It was reported that United Airlines announced last month that it had terminated its merger plans with American Airlines after initial contact, as competitor American Airlines refused to engage. American Airlines had previously stated that a merger with United would be detrimental to competition and consumers.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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