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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: The energy shocks that began around 2021 have been widespread and persistent, enough to help Japan escape its old deflationary cycle, but have not led to the inflationary spiral of the early 1970s.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: On the contrary, if these channels are not activated, large-scale shocks can still remain temporary.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Temporary shocks could become persistent if they alter wages, expectations, and pricing behavior.On May 27, 2026, local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with Bahraini Foreign Minister Zayani on the sidelines of the UN Security Council High-Level Meeting in New York. Wang Yi stated that as a good friend and partner of Bahrain and other Gulf countries, China sincerely hopes that peace and tranquility will be restored to the Middle East and the Gulf region as soon as possible. President Xi Jinping solemnly put forward four propositions on maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East, clarifying a responsible attitude and a fair stance. This war should not have happened, and there is no reason for it to continue. The urgent task is to promote a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire. The international community should increase its efforts to promote peace and work together to ease tensions and de-escalate the situation, especially opposing any attempts to escalate tensions. China supports Pakistan and other countries in continuing their active mediation efforts and is willing to closely coordinate with Bahrain and other Security Council members to ensure that the work of the Security Council moves in the right direction towards a political solution and to jointly strive for lasting peace and stability in the Middle East.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: The line between temporary inflation and persistent inflation is not mechanical.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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