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On April 4th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement announcing that its Navy and Aerospace Forces launched the 95th wave of Operation True Commitment 4 that morning. The statement indicated that a US HIMARS rocket artillery system on Bubiyan Island in Kuwait, a US Patriot missile system in northern Bahrain, a US Navy Mark missile launch array, a gathering place for senior US commanders and instructors in the Al Dafra region of the UAE, and a US Oracle company target in the UAE were all destroyed in the operation. An Israeli-owned merchant ship flying a third-country flag was also heavily attacked by the Iranian Navy in the port of Salman, Bahrain. Furthermore, Iranian missiles launched heavy strikes from multiple locations in Israel, including Bunnebula, Petah Tikwa, and Tel Aviv. This round of operations is still ongoing.The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that its air defense system responded to the 23 ballistic missiles and 56 drones launched by Iran today.On April 4th, German Foreign Minister Waldfol called on the EU to abolish the principle that decisions require unanimous consent from all member states in order for the EU to "truly grow." In an interview published on the 4th by the German Funke Media Group, Waldfol proposed abolishing the principle of unanimous consent in foreign and security policy formulation before the next European Parliament elections, so that the EU can "better act internationally and truly grow." Regarding the reasons for this suggestion, Waldfol said, "All our experiences in recent weeks regarding aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia show that this should be done." Since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis on February 24, 2022, Hungary has frequently disagreed with most EU countries on its policies towards Russia and Ukraine, opposing sanctions against Russia, Ukraines accession to the EU, and the provision of military aid to Ukraine. On March 19th of this year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked the EU from providing a €90 billion aid loan to Ukraine at the EU summit.On April 4th, it was reported that Shanghai officially issued the "Several Measures of Shanghai Municipality on Supporting the Development of the Game and Esports Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Shanghai Ten Measures for Games"). These measures focus on ten aspects: industry clustering, overseas expansion services, original high-quality products, technological empowerment, international cooperation, ecosystem improvement, cross-industry integration, financial support, talent cultivation, and esports level enhancement. They propose a series of substantial financial support policies, with the highest single support amount reaching 5 million yuan.Israel Defense Forces: A missile launched from Iran has been detected heading towards Israeli territory. Defense systems are operational to intercept the threat.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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