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On August 30th, it was reported that on August 29th local time, Magnus Brenner, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration, stated that Spain had requested further support from organizations including the European Border and Coast Guard, Europol, and the European Asylum Service in response to the migration crisis. The EU is processing the request and will make a decision quickly. He emphasized that the current priority remains the swift repatriation of those illegally residing in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Ceuta experienced a large-scale smuggling incident at the end of July, and thousands of illegal immigrants remain stranded there. Spain requested EU assistance on August 28th to address the migration crisis.On August 30th, the National Park Service endorsed President Trumps proposed 250-foot-high triumphal arch, despite the agency finding that the project would negatively impact historic heritage and views around Washington, D.C. "The proposed arch continues historical tradition, introducing a visual focal point that reflects the intended character of the site and celebrates the 250th anniversary of American independence," the federal agency wrote in a report released Friday. However, the report also confirmed that dozens of historic sites, including the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument, and other landmarks, would be negatively affected. The anticipated "adverse impacts" relate to changes in views and the skyline, rather than any physical damage to these historic buildings.On August 30th, it was reported that on August 29th local time, the Israeli State Security Directorate (Shin Bet) confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus eldest son, Yair, had faced a "significant" security threat while in the United States. Therefore, Shin Bet decided to urgently evacuate him and his security team back to Israel. Netanyahu has two sons. In an interview on August 24th, he claimed that Iran had "attempted to assassinate one of his sons." However, he did not reveal which son it was, nor did he specify the time of the incident. Subsequent reports indicated that Netanyahus eldest son, Yair, became an Iranian "assassination target" while living in Florida, USA.Market news: Iraqi Kurdistan is exporting approximately 150,000 barrels per day of oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.On August 30th, US President Trump posted: "At the invitation of the PGA Tour and its outstanding new Commissioner Brian Lolap, I am honored to accept the position of Honorary Chairman for the upcoming Presidents Cup, which will be held at the Medina Country Club in Chicago. It will be an exceptionally exciting tournament. Both teams are full of talent. I look forward to being there in person and meeting all these outstanding players from both teams!"

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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