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On June 18th, a recent report by an international organization claimed that the growth of Chinese companies global market share in some key sectors was mainly due to government subsidies. On the same day, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission, responded at a press conference, stating that simply attributing Chinas industrial competitiveness to so-called "subsidies" is not only overly simplistic but also completely wrong. Chinas industrial competitiveness stems from the intensive development of its massive market, the efficient collaboration of its complete industrial system, the long-term accumulation of education, science and technology, and talent, and the continuous optimization of its business environment.On June 18th, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, responded at a press conference that my country has made positive progress in computing-power synergy and computing-network integration in recent years. However, we also see that the synergy between computing networks and new power grids still faces some obstacles in planning, construction, and pricing mechanisms. The integration of computing networks with next-generation communication networks needs further strengthening, and breakthroughs are needed in computing power monitoring and scheduling technologies and mechanisms. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will pay more attention to supply and demand matching and strengthen the coordinated planning and construction of computing networks with new power grids and next-generation communication networks. In terms of "hard investment," we will explore more effective computing-power synergy models to achieve a balance between electricity and computing power; strengthen computing-network integration and innovation; appropriately promote the expansion of direct connection lines between national hubs; and further reduce network transmission latency. In terms of "soft infrastructure," we will strengthen the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources and accelerate the construction of a nationwide integrated computing network that is interconnected, accessible, green, and secure.On June 18, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), responded at a press conference that the NDRC will work with relevant departments to issue and implement the "15th Five-Year Plan" for modern logistics. This plan will coordinate various funding channels to support both the upgrading of existing logistics facilities and the construction of new facilities, promote the formation of a comprehensive logistics infrastructure network, enhance the adaptability and support of logistics facilities for industrial development, densify the urban and rural last-mile logistics network, accelerate the development of digital, intelligent, and green logistics facilities and equipment, and promote the improvement of the logistics network by addressing its shortcomings, ensuring smooth connectivity, and enhancing its capabilities. The goal is to achieve a systemic transformation from simply having a logistics network to having a high-quality one, and from merely having access to truly efficient and effective logistics. The objective is to establish by 2030 a logistics network that is closely integrated with industries and consumption, connects channels and networks both internally and externally, features green and intelligent facilities and equipment, and ensures comprehensive interconnection of rules and information, thereby better serving the high-quality development of the real economy.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: We will continue to closely monitor the financial markets.June 18th - According to the Washington Post Editorial Committee, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and newly appointed Chairman Warsh stated that the Fed under his leadership is unanimously and unequivocally committed to controlling inflation. This will be a long road, but he has passed his first major test since taking office. Furthermore, at his first meeting as chairman, Warsh ended the practice of issuing forward guidance, but the Fed still released a dot plot. The latest dot plot shows that nine members expect a rate hike before the end of the year, eight expect no change, and one expects a rate cut. Warsh himself did not submit his own forecast. His reasoning was that the market should price based on how investors interpret real-time economic data, not on what the Fed might do. He joked that all forecasts were submitted in pencil and could be erased and rewritten at any time before the Board meets again in six weeks. Warsh faces a tricky balancing act: demonstrating the central banks independence while avoiding angering Trump, who just nominated him for a four-year term. Trump has made no secret of his desire for rate cuts, but recently stated that Warsh should "do whatever he wants." Walsh declined to answer whether he had spoken with Trump since taking office. The real test of his independence will come in the coming months.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.