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On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation regarding promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Fu Jiuling, Director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that to revitalize traditional industries, three key measures are needed: First, adhere to revolutionary technological breakthroughs, promote the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, strengthen the leading role of enterprises in technological innovation, accelerate the efficient transformation and application of major scientific and technological achievements, and inject fresh vitality into the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries. Second, adhere to innovative allocation of production factors, deepen the construction of a unified national market, deepen the market-oriented allocation reform of factors, comprehensively rectify "involutionary" competition, regulate market competition order, and create a favorable ecosystem for industrial development. Third, adhere to deep industrial transformation and upgrading, and support enterprises in using digital and green technologies for transformation and upgrading.On April 17, Spanish energy giant Repsol announced that it had reached an agreement with the Venezuelan government to regain control of its oil assets in Venezuela, preparing to significantly increase production in the coming years. In a statement, Repsol said it plans to increase its total oil production in Venezuela by 50% within 12 months; and, if "necessary conditions are met," could potentially "double production within three years," with its current daily output at around 45,000 barrels.On April 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation regarding promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that the next step will focus on five key areas: First, a comprehensive set of macroeconomic policies will be implemented, with a batch of comprehensive policy measures prepared in advance and introduced promptly as needed. Second, efforts will be made to expand effective domestic demand, formulating a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, and promoting the early commencement of major projects that meet the requirements. Third, technological innovation will be strengthened, the development of emerging industries will be accelerated, the "Artificial Intelligence+" action will be implemented in depth, a new form of intelligent economy will be created, and the spirit of the National Service Industry Conference will be thoroughly implemented to promote the expansion mechanism of the service industry. Fourth, efforts will be intensified to stabilize employment and promote income growth, implementing the action plan for stabilizing employment, expanding capacity, and improving quality, formulating and implementing a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents, strengthening inclusive and safety-net-oriented livelihood construction, and strengthening social security for disadvantaged groups. Fifth, the foundation for safe development will be consolidated, ensuring the supply and price stability of energy resources and important commodities such as grain, accelerating the construction of a new energy system, and focusing on stabilizing the real estate market.On April 17, it was reported that on April 16, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Tajani co-chaired the 16th meeting of the China-Italy Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation in Beijing, exchanging in-depth views on deepening China-Italy and China-EU economic and trade relations. Wang Wentao stated that China and the EU are important economic and trade partners, and both sides should strengthen dialogue and communication to properly handle frictions and differences. Italy is an important member state of the EU, and it is hoped that Italy will play a constructive role in promoting the healthy and stable development of China-EU economic and trade relations.On April 17th, the Guangdong Provincial Information Office held a press conference to introduce Guangdongs import and export situation in the first quarter of 2026. Reporters learned at the conference that Guangdongs foreign trade growth rate led the country and major provinces and cities in the first quarter. According to statistics from the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter of this year, Guangdongs total import and export of goods reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.4%. Among them, exports reached 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.3%; imports reached 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.8%.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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