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Bank of Japan: We also need to pay attention to the risk that food prices may exceed expectations due to rising raw material market prices.Bank of Japan: Exchange rate fluctuations are now more likely to affect prices than in the past.On April 28th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, but three of its nine policy board members proposed a rate hike, reflecting the banks concerns about inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. The 6-3 vote was the largest split since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office. The BOJ decided to keep its short-term policy rate at 0.75% at the end of its two-day meeting, in line with market expectations. Board members Hajime Takada, Naoki Tamura, and Junko Nakagawa dissented, advocating for a rate hike to 1.0%. Nakagawa argued that despite the continued uncertainty in the Middle East, price risks were skewed to the upside in a loose financial environment, considering economic developments. Tamura believed that given the significantly upside price risks, the BOJ should set its policy rate as close as possible to the neutral rate. Takada argued that Japans price stability objective had been largely achieved, and that price risks were clearly skewed to the upside due to the secondary effects of price increases caused by overseas developments. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to explain the decision to the media later.The Bank of Japan stated that while strong business fixed investment could drive global economic growth, if corporate profits fail to expand in tandem with such investment, there could be downward pressure and asset prices could change.On April 28th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan." At the conference, a relevant official from the China Meteorological Administration pointed out that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, meteorological service supply will be further optimized, deeply integrated into and empowering the modern economic system, and the strength, depth, and effectiveness of meteorological services will be expanded. Facing key areas such as energy, transportation, and the low-altitude economy, the meteorological department will promote meteorological services to cover the entire industrial chain, focusing on incorporating meteorological standards into infrastructure construction from the outset. For example, in the transportation sector, a threshold triggering mechanism will be explored, linking speed limits, service shutdowns, and equipment reinforcement when key indicators such as forecast visibility and road surface temperature reach thresholds. For different scenarios such as new energy bases in desert areas and offshore wind power, the level of regional and station-level power forecast services will be improved. In the low-altitude domain, flight safety and operational efficiency are significantly affected by meteorological conditions, placing higher demands on meteorological services.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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