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The UK Prime Ministers Office: Prime Minister Burnham held talks with business groups and said the UK will act "more aggressively" if markets and regulations fail to meet expectations.The SC crude oil main contract weakened during the session, with the decline widening to 3.02%, and last quoted at 574.9 yuan/barrel; the trading volume was approximately 23.921 billion yuan, with a decrease of nearly 600 lots in open interest during the day, and open interest slightly declining.Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: Iran has made it clear that it will not succumb to US bullying and will not respond to threats, pressure or intimidation.July 24th - U.S. new home sales rebounded for the first time in three months in June, driven by significant price cuts from developers that offset high mortgage rates and weak consumer confidence. Junes annualized new home sales rose 1.6% year-over-year to an average of 628,000 units, exceeding the expected 607,000 units. The median selling price fell 2.7% year-over-year to $398,300, marking the fifth year-over-year decline in six months this year. The improved sales in June likely reflect substantial discounts, as developers continue to offer promotions and price reductions to stimulate weak market demand.On July 24th, Shanghai Auntie (02589.HK) issued a positive profit forecast, expecting to record a profit of approximately RMB304 million to RMB325 million for the first half of the year, representing an increase of approximately 50% to 60% compared to a profit of RMB203 million in the same period last year. The Group expects to record an adjusted profit (non-IFRS accounting standards) of approximately RMB331 million to RMB356 million for the reporting period, representing an increase of approximately 36% to 46% compared to an adjusted profit of RMB244 million in the same period last year.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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