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On April 6th, US President Trump stated in an interview on April 5th that the US is currently engaged in "in-depth negotiations" with Iran and hopes to reach an agreement before his April 7th deadline. Two sources indicated that the negotiations are being conducted through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, and there has also been communication between Trumps advisors and the Iranian Foreign Minister. Trump stated that his special envoy, Witkov, and his son-in-law, Kushner, are conducting intensive negotiations with the Iranian side. Trump said that an agreement is very likely, but if an agreement cannot be reached, he will destroy everything there. Previously, Trump had threatened to destroy infrastructure vital to Iranian civilians if an agreement could not be reached with Iranian leaders.On April 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that the US threat to attack Iranian energy facilities was Washingtons "admission" of war crimes. In a statement, Iran said, "The Iranian Foreign Minister mentioned the US threat to attack Iranian energy facilities, considering these remarks a clear admission of war crimes." Araqchi pointed out that since the start of the war, the US has been attacking Irans industrial, energy, educational, medical, and nuclear infrastructure. He emphasized that the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency should immediately condemn the US attacks on Iranian facilities.April 6 - According to the Telegram channel "TOLOnews Plus," citing the National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA), as of Sunday, the death toll from floods and landslides caused by torrential rains that began in Afghanistan on March 25 has reached 99, with 154 injured.April 6th - According to foreign media reports, crude oil loading at the important Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga was disrupted for several days following multiple drone attacks by Ukraine, but has now resumed. Shipping information shows that an Aframax bulk carrier named "Gem" began loading cargo on Saturday. Currently, Ukraine continues to attack Russian Baltic oil infrastructure; facilities at the port of Primorsk were damaged earlier on Sunday. Ukraines actions are aimed at curbing Russian export revenues. Global energy prices have risen due to the Middle East war. However, if Russia resumes a stable supply of crude oil from the Ust-Luga oil field, it could provide some relief to global markets turbulent due to Irans blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Market news: Ust-Luga, a major Baltic port in Russia, has resumed crude oil loading after several days of disruption.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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