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0.041%
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0.014%
GBP/JPY 215.290
0.055%
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Hong Kong-listed application software stocks weakened amid volatility, with Kingdee International (00268.HK) falling more than 8%, followed by declines in Kingsoft (03888.HK) and Tuya Smart (02391.HK).Futures News, August 12th: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) precious metals and non-ferrous metals warehouse receipts and changes on August 12th: 1. Copper futures warehouse receipts: 24,131 tons, an increase of 953 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts: 303,168 tons, a decrease of 1,023 tons compared to the previous trading day; 3. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 110,721 tons, an increase of 396 tons compared to the previous trading day; 4. Lead futures warehouse receipts: 61,228 tons, an increase of 301 tons compared to the previous trading day; 5. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 100,769 tons, a decrease of 158 tons compared to the previous trading day. 6. Tin futures warehouse receipts: 5,199 tons, up 136 tons from the previous trading day; 7. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 264,286 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Alumina futures factory warehouse receipts: 9,300 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Gold futures warehouse receipts: 113,676 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Silver futures warehouse receipts: 1,305,953 kg, up 5,003 kg from the previous trading day; 11. International copper futures warehouse receipts: 5,651 tons, down 251 tons from the previous trading day.US July Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM (Previous: -0.4%; Expected: 0.1%) 1. Capital Economics: +0.0%; Citigroup: +0.0%; Mizuho Securities: +0.0%; ANZ: +0.1%; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +0.1%; 2. Tesco Bank: +0.1%; Commerzbank: +0.1%; Goldman Sachs: +0.1%; HSBC: +0.1%; Morgan Stanley: +0.1%; 3. JPMorgan Chase: +0.1%; Pansen Macro: +0.1%; Moodys Analytics: +0.1%; ING: +0.1%; NatWest: +0.1%; 4. Nomura Securities: +0.1%; Oxford Economics: +0.1%; RBC: +0.1%; Sumitomo Mitsui: +0.1%; Lloyds Banking Group: +0.1%; 5. Nordea: +0.1%; Steifel: +0.1%; UBS: +0.1%; Vanguard: +0.1%; Spartan Capital: +0.1%; 6. Wells Fargo: +0.1%; Montreal: +0.2%; BNP Paribas: +0.2%; Berenberg: +0.2%; Barclays: +0.2%; 7. High Frequency Economics: +0.2%; Scotiabank: +0.2%; Societe Generale: +0.2%; Danske Bank: +0.2%; Deutsche Bank: +0.2%; 8. Standard Chartered: +0.2%; TD Securities: +0.2%; UniCredit: +0.2%; Westpac: +0.2%; Jefferies: +0.3%. US July seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate (previous value: +0.0%, expected value: +0.2%) 1. Mizuho Securities: +0.1%; Sparta Capital: +0.1%; ANZ: +0.2%; Montreal: +0.2%; BNP Paribas: +0.2%; 2. Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +0.2%; Barclays: +0.2%; CIB: +0.2%; Capital Economics: +0.2%; Citigroup: +0.2%; 3. Commerzbank: +0.2%; Danske Bank: +0.2%; Goldman Sachs: +0.2%; HSBC: +0.2%; Steifelr: +0.2%; 4. ING: +0.2%; Lloyds Banking Group: +0.2%; JPMorgan Chase: +0.2%; Oxford Economics: +0.2%; Wells Fargo: +0.2%; 5. Nomura Securities: +0.2%; Morgan Stanley: +0.2%; Pansen Macro: +0.2%; Sumitomo Mitsui: +0.2%; Nordea: +0.2%; 6. Societe Generale: +0.2%; Westpac: +0.2%; UBS: +0.2%; Standard Chartered: +0.2%; TD Securities: +0.2%; 7. UniCredit: +0.2%; NatWest: +0.2%; Deutsche Bank: +0.3%; Moodys Analytics: +0.3%; Scotiabank: +0.3%.August 12th - Wells Fargo economists predict that the July U.S. CPI report should reinforce the view that the worst of the inflationary impacts from high tariffs and Middle East conflicts have passed. Price increases appear to be driven by a few categories rather than a broad spread of underlying price pressures. However, while the scope of inflationary pressures is narrowing, continued price strength in some sectors suggests that achieving the 2% inflation target may still be a gradual process.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake occurred at 14:57 on August 12 in Xinghai County, Hainan Prefecture, Qinghai Province (35.39 degrees north latitude, 99.53 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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