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On July 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the fourth major government reshuffle since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, unexpectedly dismissing Defense Minister Mikhailov Fedorov. Fedorov, considered a popular figure in the Ukrainian government and a key advocate for Ukraines drone warfare program, confirmed his dismissal on Wednesday via social media. He listed several achievements of his team during his six-month tenure, including cutting off Russian military access to the Starlink system, further isolating Crimea, and "pushing an unpopular but extremely important military reform." This personnel change sparked calls for a peaceful protest in Kyiv on Thursday morning. This reshuffle comes shortly after the Ukrainian parliament approved the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, who left office after only one year in office.July 16 – The 2026 China (Guangdong)-ASEAN Trade Promotion and Supply Chain Cooperation Mechanism Matching and Exchange Conference, jointly hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Peoples Government and the China-ASEAN Centre, was held in Guangzhou today. Zhang Lizhong, Secretary-General of the China-ASEAN Centre, stated that China and ASEAN are good neighbors, good friends, and good partners sharing a common destiny. Over the 35 years since the establishment of dialogue relations, the two sides have become one of the most dynamic and fruitful cooperation models in the Asia-Pacific region and even globally. In the future, the China-ASEAN Centre will continue to deepen cooperation with Guangdong in various fields, fully leveraging Guangdongs advantages in manufacturing, technological innovation, and opening up to the outside world, and making new contributions to the development of the China-ASEAN comprehensive strategic partnership.Market news: Nvidia says its initiative has received support from Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.On July 16th, Bank of England Deputy Governor Brident downplayed the risk of soaring inflation spreading to wages and business pricing behavior, stating there was little reason to raise interest rates. Brident said that since the outbreak of the Middle East wars, rising borrowing costs for businesses and households, coupled with sluggish economic performance, meant the Bank of England might not need to take action to curb price pressures. Brident is one of the more dovish members of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee, having supported keeping interest rates at 3.75% in the last three meetings. Brident stated that unless the war factor influences the economy, she is confident inflation will now fall back to the 2% target level. However, she emphasized that if there are signs of a feedback loop of rising prices creating a sustained inflationary cycle, she would support raising interest rates. She also stated that the cybersecurity risks exposed by recent advancements in artificial intelligence models have become a key focus for the Bank of England.On July 16th, Futures News reported that heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Bavi damaged wheat stored by some traders, leading to frequent issues such as overheating, off-odors, and mold. This increased selling pressure among grain holders, accelerating the decline in wheat prices. Simultaneously, some market participants, optimistic about the future market, raised wheat prices and actively increased their reserves despite reduced supply, causing a slight rebound in local wheat prices. As of July 15th, the purchase prices of new wheat by flour mills, feed mills, and grain depots in major producing areas remained stable with slight fluctuations, while some companies slightly lowered their purchase prices for old wheat compared to the previous week. The continued low price of new wheat has increased the pressure on grain holders to incur losses, leading to growing calls for the activation of the minimum purchase price program for wheat. Due to rainy weather during the harvest season, the inventory of qualified new wheat this year is relatively small, making it difficult for most grain to enter the governments minimum purchase price program. Therefore, government purchases are unlikely to drive a sustained and significant increase in wheat prices, and the market should not be overly optimistic. Currently, the total amount of new wheat purchased by enterprises included in the national statistics has exceeded 60 million tons, ensuring sufficient supply of grain in the market. The short-term wheat market is expected to fluctuate weakly. If government-supported procurement is initiated, the probability of wheat prices stabilizing will significantly increase. However, the market lacks upward momentum, making a substantial rebound unlikely.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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