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September 3 – According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that six months ago, when the US launched military action against Iran, Defense Secretary Hergsays pledged a swift and decisive strike to avoid a protracted conflict. Now, he is quietly extending troop deployments, suggesting the conflict could continue into next year. Sources indicated this is part of a US military strategy without a clear timeframe, designed to give Trump more options in a war. However, the deployment of 19 warships, air defense units, fighter squadrons, and paratroopers across the region is increasing pressure on US personnel and their families, while the resulting maintenance backlog could take years to clear. One source stated that the standard deployment period for Army air defense units responsible for intercepting Iranian missiles and drones under high-pressure conditions has been extended from nine months to 12 months. Some units originally planned for deployment in Europe and the Pacific but later redeployed to the Middle East have been deployed for over a year.According to the Kuwait News Agency: Alarms have been sounded nationwide.On September 3, local time, the defense team of Venezuelan President Maduro, who is under the control of the United States, filed a motion in the Southern District of New York Federal Court on September 2, requesting the dismissal of the fourth alternative indictment against him on the grounds of immunity. Judge Alvin Hellestein scheduled the hearing for the motion to be held on the morning of November 17, 2026. The defense team attached a legal memorandum, a statement from Pollack, and several annexes to the request, including a ruling from the Constitutional Court of the Venezuelan Supreme Court dated January 3, 2026, a document from the United Socialist Party, and two rulings from Italian courts. It is understood that the filing of this motion does not mean the case has been dismissed. The prosecution will now respond, and the judge will decide whether this defense claim stands against the charges brought by the United States.On Thursday, September 3, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened 171.35 points higher, or 0.68%, at 25,482.56; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened 32.2 points higher, or 0.71%, at 4,549.36; the H-share Index opened 63.02 points higher, or 0.75%, at 8,513.12; and the Red Chip Index opened 11.74 points higher, or 0.28%, at 4,165.19.Hang Seng Index futures opened 0.52% higher at 25,385 points, a premium of 74 points.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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