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Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, down from previous forecasts of cuts in September and December of this year.May 11 - According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 849,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%; from January to April, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.758 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%.On May 11, the Heilongjiang Provincial Communications Administration issued a notice soliciting public opinions on the "Heilongjiang Provinces 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Information and Communication Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that by 2027, the layout of new information infrastructure will be basically complete. 5G networks will cover cities, counties, towns, and scenic areas. Gigabit fiber broadband will achieve full coverage in urban and rural areas, and key industrial parks will achieve "10-gigabit backbones". By 2030, a high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated terrestrial and satellite information infrastructure, cloud-network convergence, intelligent and agile, green and low-carbon, and secure and controllable intelligent comprehensive information infrastructure will be basically completed.China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.384 million units in April, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%.N Changyu triggered a second temporary suspension, with its stock price surging nearly 700% intraday and trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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