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On March 24th, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, "The war in the Middle East impacted the UK economy in March, causing economic growth to stagnate while inflation surged." Output growth in both manufacturing and services has slowed to an extremely sluggish level, with businesses directly blaming events in the Middle East for factors including heightened customer risk aversion, soaring price pressures, rising interest rates, and disruptions to travel and supply chains. Inflationary pressures have risen sharply due to rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions. The acceleration in manufacturing cost increases has been particularly severe, the most dramatic since the "Black Wednesday" devaluation of the pound in 1992. The overall economic and inflationary impact depends not only on the duration of the war but also on the length of disruptions to energy markets and shipping, and the March PMI data clearly indicates that downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to inflation are already present. The Bank of England faces a challenging period, needing to weigh these risks in policymaking, striving to curb a continued surge in inflation while ensuring that a tough interest rate outlook does not exacerbate the risk of recession.On March 24, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee stated that to promote global development, Hong Kong will focus on three main areas: First, actively expanding its global trade network and striving to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); second, leveraging Hong Kongs extensive global trade and economic network, assisting mainland enterprises in "going global" through the "Mainland Enterprises Going Global Special Program," while connecting global investors with Hong Kongs professional services; and third, promoting regional economic development and prosperity, fully supporting Chinas hosting of the 2026 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, and utilizing Hong Kongs hosting of the APEC Finance Ministers Meeting to deepen regional cooperation. Hong Kong is willing to complement the strengths of the Hainan Free Trade Port and work hand in hand with global partners to build an open and prosperous future.The UKs preliminary composite PMI for March was 51, below the expected 52.9 and the previous reading of 53.7.The UKs preliminary services PMI for March was 51.2, below the expected 53 and the previous reading of 53.9.The UKs preliminary manufacturing PMI for March was 51.4, below the expected 50.1 and the previous reading of 51.7.

The EUR/USD Price Analysis Is Supported By Rebounds From 1.0840-45

Alina Haynes

Apr 11, 2023 14:37

EUR:USD.png 

 

On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD reaches a new intraday peak near 1.0880 as bulls attempt to regain control following a two-day downtrend. Consequently, the Euro-U.S. dollar pair recovers after the convergence of the 100-day simple moving average and a two-week-long ascending support line.

 

However, the recovery movements of the major currency pair remain elusive unless the quote remains below the 13-day-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.0930.

 

A one-week-old descending trend line near 1.0900 is protecting the EUR/USD pair's near-term upside at press time.

 

In the event that the EUR/USD pair maintains strength above 1.0930, the 1.0975 monthly high may serve as the last line of defense for pair sellers before pushing the price to February's high of 1.1033.

 

Alternately, a breach of the 1.0840-45 support confluence would drive the price to the 1.0788 monthly low without hesitation.

 

Future EUR/USD skeptics may be challenged by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the pair's March-April upswing, respectively near 1.0745 and 1.0690.

 

To restore market confidence, supporters of the EUR/USD must surpass 1.0930. The quote remains on the bears' radar despite the fact that 1.0845-40 limits the near-term decline.