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April 9th - GeoQuant, a risk analytics firm affiliated with Fitch Ratings, stated that high fuel prices ahead of state elections are putting pressure on subsidy policies, posing rising fiscal and political risks to Malaysia. The government has already cut fuel subsidy quotas by one-third to control costs and maintain fiscal discipline. However, public concerns about fuel prices could intensify ahead of the elections. If fuel prices fall, a prudent policy response could support Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and potentially pave the way for early federal elections. However, if fuel prices remain high, it could force the government to implement more austerity measures, putting pressure on state elections and potentially postponing the federal elections scheduled for February 2028.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks continued their upward trend, with Geely Automobile (00175.HK) and Chery Automobile (09973.HK) rising by more than 4%, NIO-SW (09866.HK) rising by more than 3%, and Leapmotor (09863.HK) and others following suit.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 4.00% intraday, currently trading at 637.50 yuan per barrel.Former Honduran President Hernández: The U.S. Court of Appeals has overturned his guilty verdict and ordered the judge to drop the charges against him.On April 9th, economists at Mizuho Securities stated that while the upward pressure on oil prices caused by the Middle East conflict is significant, government subsidies are expected to largely offset its impact on Japans energy costs. Meanwhile, the impact on commodities (mainly food) will gradually emerge, with inflation in these categories projected to peak between spring and summer 2027, implying a lag of four to six quarters. They added, "As security in the Strait of Hormuz and full normalization of shipping are expected to take time, crude oil prices are likely to remain high in the short term."

AUD/USD However, 0.6700 is the key to the upside

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:41

AUD:USD.png 

 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning in Asia, the AUD/USD receives bids near 0.6650 to recover recent losses. In doing so, the Aussie pair recovers from the lowest levels in two weeks while reversing course from the horizontal support that has been in place for 12 days around 0.6620.

 

Nonetheless, imminent bearish MACD signals and a stable RSI indicate that the AUD/USD pair will continue to decline.

 

The convergence of the 10-day moving average and the support-turned-resistance line from March 10, close to the round number 0.6700, may also threaten the most recent price recovery.

 

Even if the AUD/USD bulls are able to surpass 0.6700, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's February-March decline, located around 0.6805, will serve as the final line of defense for the bears.

 

Alternately, a break below 0.6620 could initiate a new decline aiming for the Year-to-Date (YTD) low established in February around 0.6565.

 

Notably, the AUD/USD pair's decline beyond 0.6565 confronts multiple obstacles to the south, including the highs for October 2022 near 0.6545 and 0.6520.

 

After that, a decline to the November 2022 low of approximately 0.6275 cannot be ruled out.

 

Regardless of the recent corrective rally, the AUD/USD remains on the radar of skeptics.