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March 9th - The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted shipping, forcing Saudi Arabia to divert its crude oil shipments to the Red Sea. Saudi Aramco recently launched a rare tender to supply approximately 4.6 million barrels of crude oil for immediate delivery, encompassing ultra-light, heavy, and its flagship Arab Light grade. This tender in the spot market reflects the pressure it faces. Because it typically sells only through long-term contracts, Saudi Aramco is unable to sell most of its oil through conventional channels and is instead transporting a record volume of crude to Yanbu port on the Red Sea via pipeline. Bloomberg vessel tracking data shows that its western terminal shipments have surged to approximately 2.3 million barrels per day this month, about 50% higher than any month since the end of 2016. Traders say the prices in these tenders represent a premium over the official selling prices for their respective grades in March. These official prices were set a month ago, well before the current Middle East conflict began.March 9th - According to foreign media reports, Saudi Aramco has provided spot crude oil supplies through a series of rare tenders due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz forcing cargoes to be diverted via the Red Sea. According to informed traders, the company recently offered approximately 4.6 million barrels of crude oil across three grades – Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy, and Arab Light.Market news: Saudi Aramco has provided immediate crude oil supplies through a series of rare tenders.March 9th - As the escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes up global oil prices, the South Korean government has taken emergency measures. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, at an emergency economic meeting on Monday, called for the "swift introduction and bold implementation of a maximum oil price system" to curb excessive price increases. Lee made these remarks as international oil prices approached $120 per barrel, a new high since 2022. Production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the USs threats to escalate the conflict have put continuous pressure on the energy market. South Korea relies almost entirely on energy imports, with approximately 70% of its oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This proposed oil price cap mechanism would be the first time South Korea has used such measures in nearly 30 years, aiming to mitigate the impact of geopolitical instability on its domestic energy supply chain.March 9th - According to the Financial Times, G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the possibility of jointly releasing emergency oil reserves under the coordination of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This meeting aims to address the surge in oil prices following the conflict in the Gulf region. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the G7 finance ministers and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol will hold a teleconference at 8:30 AM New York time (8:30 PM Beijing time) to discuss the impact of the war with Iran. Sources also indicated that three G7 countries, including the United States, have so far expressed support for the idea. The 32 member countries of the IEA hold strategic reserves as part of a collective emergency system established to address the oil price crisis. One source stated that some US officials believe a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil reserves would be appropriate, equivalent to 25% to 30% of the total reserves of 1.2 billion barrels.

AUD/USD However, 0.6700 is the key to the upside

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:41

AUD:USD.png 

 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning in Asia, the AUD/USD receives bids near 0.6650 to recover recent losses. In doing so, the Aussie pair recovers from the lowest levels in two weeks while reversing course from the horizontal support that has been in place for 12 days around 0.6620.

 

Nonetheless, imminent bearish MACD signals and a stable RSI indicate that the AUD/USD pair will continue to decline.

 

The convergence of the 10-day moving average and the support-turned-resistance line from March 10, close to the round number 0.6700, may also threaten the most recent price recovery.

 

Even if the AUD/USD bulls are able to surpass 0.6700, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's February-March decline, located around 0.6805, will serve as the final line of defense for the bears.

 

Alternately, a break below 0.6620 could initiate a new decline aiming for the Year-to-Date (YTD) low established in February around 0.6565.

 

Notably, the AUD/USD pair's decline beyond 0.6565 confronts multiple obstacles to the south, including the highs for October 2022 near 0.6545 and 0.6520.

 

After that, a decline to the November 2022 low of approximately 0.6275 cannot be ruled out.

 

Regardless of the recent corrective rally, the AUD/USD remains on the radar of skeptics.