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September 5th - According to Axios, Republican confidence in the economy has plummeted at an unprecedented rate since the pandemic began over the past six months, a decline comparable to that during the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. Typically, the ruling party is more optimistic about the economy, while the opposition is far more pessimistic. However, the current situation is unusual; even with Republicans in the White House, Republican voters are increasingly negative about the economy this year. With only two months left until Election Day, this adds another ominous sign for Trump. The director of the University of Michigans consumer survey stated that most of the time, Republican and Democratic confidence in the economy moves roughly in parallel, but this is not the case now. Republicans initially had very positive expectations for the governments economic policies (including tariffs), but they have seen neither a slowdown in inflation, let alone the price reductions promised by Trump.September 5th - The U.S. military stated on the 4th that it has shot down more than 300 drug cartel drones along the U.S.-Mexico border this year. The U.S. Northern Command issued a statement that day saying that the U.S. military has used both kinetic and non-kinetic systems to shoot down more than 300 drones this year to support U.S. Customs and Border Protection, including more than 100 in August. The U.S. military began using the Army Multipurpose High Energy Laser (MLLS) system in border operations on August 24th, and as of September 4th, it had used the system to shoot down 11 drug cartel drones. The U.S. military began using the Army Multipurpose High Energy Laser (MLLS) system in border operations on August 24, and as of September 4, it had used the system to shoot down 11 drug cartel drones.September 5th - Just earlier this year, France completed the domestic consolidation of all its official gold reserves, completely clearing out its custodial holdings in the United States. Eric Monnet, a professor at the Paris School of Economics, stated that this operation not only standardized the quality and specifications of its gold reserves, but also effectively mitigated inflation arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while highlighting considerations for national sovereignty and asset security amidst geopolitical changes. Currently, many countries in Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East are reassessing the risks of overseas custody. With rising geopolitical and financial market uncertainty, a new round of adjustments to gold reserve allocations is underway globally.German Chancellor Merz: (Regarding the attempted drone attack at the airport) The attribution is very clear and has a full legal basis.According to Interfax news agency, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russia struck two ships carrying military cargo at the port of Chernomorsk in Ukraine. Russia also attacked a cargo ship near the port of Odessa in Ukraine.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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