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January 30th - Since the beginning of the year, Shenzhens secondhand housing market has seen a continuous rise in transaction volume, while the new housing market is also showing signs of recovery. Related data shows that the number of secondhand homes sold in Shenzhen has maintained an upward trend for three consecutive weeks, with 1,051 new homes sold, a 14.5% increase compared to the previous week. Among these, commercial and office properties saw a significant increase in transactions, rising by 69.4% month-on-month, becoming a major driver of new home sales. Behind this market recovery, favorable policies have been a key driving force. Starting January 1, 2026, Shenzhen will implement new standards for secondhand housing transaction taxes and fees: properties held for two years or more will be exempt from value-added tax, and for properties held for less than two years, the value-added tax rate will be reduced from 5% to 3%, directly lowering the cost of homeownership. Furthermore, the Peoples Bank of China recently announced a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, significantly lowering the barrier to entry for commercial property purchases.On January 30th, Guild Resident Economist Guy Berger stated: "I dont agree with concluding that Warsh will be a hawk (at least under this administration) based on his experience as a Fed governor. I think his biggest challenge initially will be gaining the support of the board. Since Bernanke, new chairs have generally had a more secure position than Warsh."January 30 - Money markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more than twice this year, each time by 25 basis points.January 30th - RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas: My assessment of Kevin Warsh is based on his public statements, speeches, and performance during his tenure at the Federal Reserve, with reference to Fed meeting minutes. My conclusion is that his first reaction (to monetary policy issues) is hawkish; he has almost never encountered a possibility of an interest rate hike that he dislikes. However, he made mistakes in his policy response after the financial crisis; he genuinely failed to understand the nature, scale, and impact of this Great Depression-like shock. Warsh continued to cite inflation as the primary risk between 2007 and 2008, when a massive deflationary shock had already been triggered: the US banking system nearly collapsed, and credit markets froze.January 30th - According to China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC), Ni Zhen, Party Secretary and Chairman of CEEC, held talks with Zhang Chuanwei, Party Secretary and Chairman of Mingyang Group, on January 30th. The two sides conducted in-depth exchanges on deepening cooperation in areas such as technological innovation, offshore wind power, green hydrogen ammonia and methanol, and international business.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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