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September 10th - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates for the second time since the energy price surge caused by the Iran war, as inflation continues to exceed its target while the regions economy remains surprisingly strong. In a survey, all but one analyst expected the deposit rate to rise 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday. New quarterly forecasts will reinforce the case for a rate hike, pointing to rising inflationary pressures and faster economic growth in the eurozone. Policymakers are dealing with consumer price increases that surpassed 3% last month, a level near a three-year high, and unlikely to fall significantly in the coming months. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the ECB raised rates in June and there is little disagreement about taking action again this week.Market news: The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether the $20 billion licensing deal between Nvidia (NVDA.O) and AI chip startup Groq was deliberately designed to circumvent antitrust scrutiny.September 10th - According to reports, TSMCs (TSM.N) Phase II expansion of its 1.4nm fab in the Central Taiwan Science Park is accelerating, with the first (P1) fab expected to begin trial operations in April next year. Mass production is anticipated to begin in the second half of 2027, earlier than the originally planned 2028. The report, citing unnamed sources, states that TSMC is building two temporary offices at the site, expected to be completed simultaneously in April next year. Initially, over 5,400 operations and outsourced personnel will be stationed there.On September 10th, 2026, at 9:00 AM, options for hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and low-sulfur fuel oil were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). All three options were simultaneously opened to Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs). The low-sulfur fuel oil option, as a specific domestic product, directly allows overseas traders to participate in trading. All three options are American-style options. A total of 236 contracts were listed for trading on the first day, including 48 hot-rolled coil options, 50 stainless steel options, and 138 low-sulfur fuel oil options. Following the listing of these three options, the total number of options listed on the SHFE has increased to 23, covering major sectors such as non-ferrous metals, precious metals, ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. A relevant SHFE official stated that hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, and low-sulfur fuel oil futures have been listed for many years and have operated steadily, becoming important tools for risk management for enterprises in related industries. The listing of these three options is an important measure for the SHFE to expand and improve its business, further enhancing the breadth and depth of services offered for these products. 2. Going forward, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will continue to maintain stable market operations, improve its product system, optimize rules and regulations, strengthen market cultivation and investor education, focus on improving market operation quality and service efficiency, better meet the diversified and refined risk management needs of industrial enterprises, and better serve the high-quality development of the real economy.On September 10th, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the EUs climate monitoring agency, released a statement saying that August 2026 will be the hottest month since records began in 1940. Data shows that the global average surface temperature in August this year was approximately 16.96 degrees Celsius, slightly higher than the record of approximately 16.95 degrees Celsius set in July 2023, making it the hottest month globally. The global average surface temperature in August was 0.85 degrees Celsius higher than the average for the same period from 1991 to 2020, and 1.65 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850 to 1900). This marks the first time since November 2025 that the global monthly average temperature has exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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