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On July 15th, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the central bank is continuously optimizing and improving the monetary policy framework, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy framework from primarily quantitative control to primarily price-based control, and striving to create a suitable monetary and financial environment. He added that the single indicator of loans can no longer fully reflect the financing situation of the real economy, and suggested that investors consider both loans and bonds together, while also paying closer attention to indicators such as interest rates and financing structure, which comprehensively reflect social financing conditions.On July 15, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the future, monetary and credit policies will shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, and the slowdown and improvement of loan quality may become one of the new normal aspects of macroeconomic operation.On July 15th, ship tracking data showed that two oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil changed their destination signals to Pakistan, a rare move that may indicate these vessels are seeking a relatively safe anchorage to await developments following the reimposition of a US maritime blockade. The tankers "Rani" and "Amil," carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude oil, changed their destination signals to Karachi, Pakistan, on Tuesday. However, it is unlikely that these two tankers will unload their cargo in Pakistan, as doing so could expose Pakistan to violating US sanctions. Kpler data shows that Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude oil for at least 10 years. Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang stated that the ships "may choose to sail closer to Pakistan to avoid US naval vessels and mark Karachi as a transit destination along their route."On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first five months of this year, the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rose to 34.4%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points compared with 2025, and the proportion of cross-border trade settlement in RMB was about 30%.On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, looking ahead, the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate are quite diverse, with both factors driving appreciation and depreciation, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate in both directions.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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