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June 16 – A press conference for the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum, also known as the Summer Davos Forum, will be held in Beijing today. The 2026 Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to be held in Dalian, Liaoning Province, from June 23 to 25. Participants come from more than 90 countries and regions worldwide, with total registered participants exceeding 1,700, setting a new record. The forum, themed "Innovation at Scale," will focus on a series of topics related to global innovation trends and industrial transformation and upgrading, gathering wisdom from various sectors to inject momentum into promoting global economic recovery and sustained growth.On June 16th, Li Auto (02015.HK) held its Livis Day software and embodied intelligence launch event in Beijing. Li Auto officially proposed a complete definition of an embodied intelligent vehicle: an intelligent agent possessing the capabilities of an electric vehicle, a professional driver, an AI computer, and a life assistant. Based on this definition, the event systematically showcased the next-generation Li Space interactive experience, its self-developed embodied intelligence model, the worlds first dynamic dataflow AI chip, Mach M100, embodied intelligence products and experiences, and released OTA growth milestones covering the entire year. Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, stated that Li Autos self-developed Mach M100 chip will achieve mass production and deployment in vehicles in May 2026, becoming the worlds first mass-produced dynamic dataflow AI chip. With the mass production and deployment of the Mach M100, Li Auto has achieved full-stack self-development of chips, compilers, operating systems, AI algorithms, and domain controllers.1. Interest Rate Adjustment – The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level in 31 years. The Bank of Japans last rate hike will be in December 2025. 2. Voting Participation – The governor was absent due to illness, and only 8 people voted at this meeting. In the event of a 4-4 tie, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, who chaired the meeting, will have the decisive vote. 3. Voting Ratio – The market widely expects all voting members to support the rate hike; however, Toshiro Asada, who holds a reflationary stance, may not support the rate hike, and some may propose a 50 basis point increase. 4. Forward Guidance – The market is focused on whether the Bank of Japan will adjust its forward guidance. The current wording is "Given that real interest rates are at a significantly low level, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing." 5. Cessation of QT – Japanese media reports that the Bank of Japan will announce that it will stop reducing the monthly bond purchase program starting next April. This move may be seen as a "political deal with the government" and will affect the Bank of Japans independence. 6. Press Conference – The Bank of Japan Governor was absent due to illness, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida held a press conference on his behalf. The market is focused on whether Uchida will hint at a possible second consecutive interest rate hike in July and his views on bond-buying policy.Chinas May industrial value-added and total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year figures will be released in ten minutes.On June 16th, it was reported that the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.4500%, and the lowest was 0.7030%; the highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0230%, and the lowest was 1.0000%; and the highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0210%, and the lowest was 1.0000%.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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