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On August 15th, local time, US President Trump, speaking at an event in Garden City, New York on the afternoon of August 14th, urged Americans to "accept higher gasoline prices" as "the price to pay to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons." Trump also stated, "After we defeat Iran... I will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as American territory." The seriousness of his remarks remains unclear.August 15th - According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Nvidia and OpenAI are close to reaching a financing agreement to build a large data center campus in Ohio. However, the two parties have restructured the deal, with Nvidia initially only guaranteeing half of the multi-billion dollar expansion plan, instead of the full amount. The revised plan reduces Nvidias financial guarantee from $250 billion to less than $120 billion. This adjustment is in response to investor concerns about the chipmakers exposure as it leverages its balance sheet to boost demand for its AI chips. The agreement could be signed as early as this weekend. Under the framework currently under discussion, Nvidia will provide financial guarantees for the first phase (totaling approximately 5 gigawatts of power capacity), with subsequent phases and financing methods to be decided later. According to two people familiar with the project, OpenAI is still negotiating and plans to sign a binding lease for 10 gigawatts of capacity in the project within the next few days.Indonesias Geophysical Agency: The tsunami warning issued after the 7.7 magnitude earthquake has been lifted.On August 15th, according to two people familiar with Anthropics finances, the company projects revenue of approximately $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028. This projection significantly exceeds the $47 billion "annualized revenue" the company announced in May. Four sources stated that bankers and investors are using enterprise value multiples based on these projections. Using revenue multiples is common for high-growth software companies that havent yet established a mature profit model. However, extending the projection period to two years in advance is unusual, reflecting the speed of Anthropics business expansion and the difficulty of setting a valuation benchmark for a company still heavily investing in AI infrastructure.Sources say Anthropic expects its revenue to reach $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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