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February 13th - The Peoples Bank of China released its financial statistics report for January 2026. At the end of January, the outstanding balance of RMB and foreign currency loans was 280.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The outstanding balance of RMB loans at the end of January was 276.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January. By sector, household loans increased by 456.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 109.7 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 4.45 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.05 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 3.18 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 873.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 188.2 billion yuan.February 13th - The Peoples Bank of China released its financial statistics report for January 2026. At the end of January, the balance of RMB and foreign currency deposits totaled 344.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 336.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan in January. Among them, household deposits increased by 2.13 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 2.61 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 1.55 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by 1.45 trillion yuan. At the end of January, the balance of foreign currency deposits was 1.1 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. Foreign currency deposits increased by 43.8 billion US dollars in January.Chinas M1 money supply grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in January, below the expected 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.8%.On February 13, the Peoples Bank of China released its financial statistics report for January 2026. Preliminary statistics show that total social financing in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, 317.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year; foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 46.8 billion yuan (converted to RMB), 86 billion yuan more than the same period last year; entrusted loans decreased by 19.2 billion yuan, 64.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; trust loans decreased by 400 million yuan, 62.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 629.3 billion yuan, 163.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of corporate bonds was 503.3 billion yuan, 57.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of government bonds was 976.4 billion yuan, 283.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises was 29.1 billion yuan, 18.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year.On February 13, the Peoples Bank of China released its financial statistics report for January 2026. Preliminary statistics show that at the end of January 2026, the outstanding amount of total social financing was 449.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Specifically, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy amounted to 273.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; outstanding foreign currency loans to the real economy (converted to RMB) amounted to 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%; outstanding entrusted loans amounted to 11.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; outstanding trust loans amounted to 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; outstanding undiscounted bank acceptance bills amounted to 2.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; outstanding corporate bonds amounted to 34.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; outstanding government bonds amounted to 95.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; and outstanding domestic shares of non-financial enterprises amounted to 12.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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