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On May 26th, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that its new inflation indicator showed core consumer inflation, excluding one-off factors, rose to 2.8% in April, exceeding the 2% target and accelerating from 2.5% in March. This new indicator, which excludes institutional factors such as education and energy subsidies, shows a year-on-year increase significantly higher than the 1.4% increase in the benchmark core consumer price index released by the Japanese government last week. The BOJ began releasing this data in March to strengthen communication about potential inflation, as this information is crucial for its interest rate decisions. Analysts suggest that the April inflation data may help the BOJ demonstrate that even after excluding government subsidies, the inflation rate remains above the target level, thus providing a basis for raising interest rates next month.On May 26th, Kingboard Laminates (01888.HK) surged over 7% intraday, reaching a new high of HK$56.25. Citigroup issued a research report stating that due to the faster-than-expected increase in the average selling price of electronic-grade fiberglass cloth in May, and the anticipated increase in the average selling price of copper clad laminates (CCL) next month, Citigroup raised its earnings forecasts for Kingboard Laminates by 16% to 24% for 2026 to 2028, and raised its target price from HK$51 to HK$66. The bank expects Kingboard Laminates to benefit from rising CCL prices due to copper cost inflation, as well as a shortage of electronic-grade fiberglass cloth. It anticipates that the groups gross margin will enter an expansion cycle, surpassing the high of approximately 34% in 2021, reaching 28.3% in 2026, 33.1% in 2027, and 34.9% in 2028. Citigroup noted that in addition to benefiting from the electronic-grade fiberglass cloth business, the group also benefits from the shortage of AI-related copper foil. The group plans to further upgrade its facilities and build a 21,000-ton capacity, mainly for HVLP4 standards, which is expected to be put into operation in mid-2027. The bank maintains its "Buy" rating and regards Kingboard Laminates as its top pick in the China industrial AI infrastructure theme.According to Zhonglianjin Information Network, sulfur prices generally declined today. In Shandong, Dongming Petrochemical quoted solid sulfur at 7550 yuan/ton and liquid sulfur at 7400 yuan/ton, both down 150 yuan/ton from the previous period; Qicheng Petrochemical and Zhenghe Petrochemical quoted liquid sulfur at 7300 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton; Huaxing Petrochemical quoted liquid sulfur at 7260 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; Shangneng Petrochemical and Shenchi Chemical quoted liquid sulfur at 7290 yuan/ton and 7303 yuan/ton respectively, down 60 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively; Wantong Petrochemical quoted solid sulfur at 7077 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Regarding ports, Zhenjiang Ports price is 7400-7430 yuan/ton, down 30-40 yuan/ton from the previous period; Dafeng Ports price is 7380-7410 yuan/ton, down 30-40 yuan/ton from the previous period. In addition, Qingdao Refining & Chemicals solid and liquid prices remain stable, while Jincheng Petrochemical and Xintai Petrochemical have no prices quoted, and Huifeng Petrochemicals liquid sulfur price is currently unavailable due to unit shutdown.On May 26th, AntLingbo announced a deep strategic partnership with Jianzhi Innovation (Beijing) Robotics Technology Co., Ltd. According to the cooperation plan, the two parties will collaborate on data sharing across AntLingbos full-series embodied intelligent model matrix. They will also jointly develop dedicated data acquisition equipment to continuously improve the accuracy and dimensionality of human data and accelerate the scaling up of high-quality physical real-world data.On May 26, a joint statement was released by the Peoples Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The statement noted that Pakistan positively appraised the informal trilateral meeting between China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in Urumqi in April 2026 and welcomed Chinas provision of a dialogue platform for communication between the two sides. Both sides agreed to maintain close communication and cooperation on the Afghan issue. Both sides emphasized that no individual, group, or political party, including the Pakistani Taliban and the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, will be allowed to use relevant territories to undermine or threaten regional security and interests, or to engage in terrorist acts and activities.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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