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On August 14th, Shell lost a five-year legal battle with environmental activists over an oil exploration project in South Africa, a case that went all the way to the countrys Supreme Court. The Constitutional Court ruled on Friday that the oil giant cannot renew its exploration rights off South Africas rugged, wild Indian Ocean coast. This ruling comes as other offshore oil exploration in South Africa faces challenges, while neighboring Namibia is working to develop crude oil discoveries near its maritime border. The decision could further embolden activists who have won several lawsuits against oil exploration companies. The legal battle began in 2021 when activists objected to planned seismic surveys by Shell and its local partners in whale-infested areas.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. oil production will average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, compared with 13.82 million barrels per day in July; and will average 13.77 million barrels per day in September.On August 14th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi stated on Friday that Ukraine could resume grain exports through Black Sea ports within a month if all parties implement the agreement to suspend attacks on civilian cargo ships. According to Ukrainian sources on the 13th, Ukraine had proposed to Russia a cessation of mutual attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea. Recently, attacks by Russia and Ukraine against commercial shipping and port facilities in the Black Sea have escalated. Several Russian ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have ceased operations, affecting key grain export hubs in southern Ukraine as well, leading to a significant decline in grain exports from both countries and pushing up global grain prices.According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange filings, Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 1.9 million Class B shares on August 14, at a cost of HK$49.8 million.On August 14th, Miniso (09896.HK) announced that it expects to record revenue of approximately RMB11.45 billion to RMB11.55 billion for the first half of 2026, representing an increase of approximately 22% to 23% year-on-year; operating profit of approximately RMB1.62 billion to RMB1.66 billion, representing an increase of approximately 5% to 7% year-on-year; profit for the period of approximately RMB940 million to RMB960 million, representing an increase of approximately 4% to 6% year-on-year; and basic and diluted earnings per share of approximately RMB0.78 to RMB0.79, representing an increase of approximately 5% to 7% and 6% to 9% year-on-year, respectively. The increase in operating profit for the first half of 2026 is mainly due to the fair value change of an investment in a limited partnership investing in the artificial intelligence industry, resulting in an unrealized and market-valued gain of approximately RMB277 million.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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