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On August 30th, Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated on Saturday that he does not believe Russia will attack NATO, "the worlds most powerful military alliance." However, in an interview with the German newspaper Bild, he said NATO should "prepare for the worst to prevent it from happening." Stubb pointed out that Russia has lost more soldiers than it recruited and judged that Russia may mobilize more troops in the fall, although this move would have "domestic political implications." He said Moscow is in an "increasingly complex situation," but emphasized that Russia will not end the conflict due to an economic downturn. He stated, "Never underestimate how much economic hardship the Russians can withstand."On August 30th, Yonhap News Agency reported that US President Trumps financial disclosures revealed he traded shares of e-commerce giant Coupang Inc. twice in June through a fund manager. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and South Korea continue to escalate over South Koreas regulatory handling of the massive data breach at the US-listed e-commerce giant. In July, the US House Judiciary Committee released a temporary staff report accusing the South Korean government of carrying out a "discriminatory attack" against Coupang and all other US companies, stating that Coupang has been a "consistently targeted entity."On August 30, Iraqi Prime Ministers Security Advisor Qassem Araji stated in a recent interview with Al Jazeera that Iraq maintains "good relations" with both Iran and the United States and seeks to act as a "bridge" for communication among all parties to reach an agreement that safeguards the interests of the entire region. He added that Iran has emphasized the necessity of eliminating extremist groups within Iraq.On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the company remains open to further investment in the US semiconductor industry, while predicting that the global memory chip shortage will continue until the end of 2030. "We are always open to more investment, but no decisions have been made yet," Guo Luzheng said. He stated that SK Hynix is searching globally for potential sites that can meet its R&D and testing needs, noting that electricity, water resources, and government incentives are key considerations. Guo Luzheng said, "We are open to any location that can provide sufficient infrastructure and resources." He also expressed hope that the company will bring "more good news" to the US artificial intelligence industry in the future.Iraqi Prime Ministers Security Advisor Qassem Araj: Iraq seeks to become a "bridge" between Iran and the United States.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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