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1. U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 50,188.14 points, setting a new closing high. The S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 6,941.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59% to 23,102.47 points. Disney and Home Depot rose more than 2%, leading the Dow Jones gains. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.59%, with Google falling more than 1%, Facebook falling nearly 1%, and Intel falling more than 6%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.87%, with Hesai Technology rising more than 6% and Zai Lab rising more than 6%. 2. European stock indexes closed mixed. The German DAX fell 0.11% to 24,987.85 points, the French CAC40 rose 0.06% to 8,327.88 points, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.31% to 10,353.84 points. 3. US Treasury yields fell across the board. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.49 basis points to 3.454%, the 3-year Treasury yield fell 3.96 basis points to 3.514%, the 5-year Treasury yield fell 3.99 basis points to 3.701%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.94 basis points to 4.143%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell 7.22 basis points to 4.785%. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.62% to $5047.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.01% to $80.58 per ounce. Federal Reserve officials emphasized the independence of monetary policy and maintained current interest rates, easing market concerns about a hawkish stance from the Fed. This, coupled with speculative funds leaving the market, put pressure on precious metals. 5. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 13.4 million barrels last week, to $64.2 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 0.04% to $69.01 per barrel.According to Futures News on February 11, the worlds largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased its holdings by 25.36 tons from the previous day, with its current holdings at 16,216.45 tons.February 11 – Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Administrator Bryan Bedford stated that he expects Canadian aviation regulators to move forward with the approval process for the Gulfstream jet after President Trump threatened tariffs and other retaliatory actions against Canada. Bedford told reporters, “I think we’ve resolved the issues with Canada.” He indicated that, to his knowledge, Transport Canada will announce the Gulfstream’s certification this week.Lyft (LYFT.O) CEO: No significant weakness in consumer demand was observed in the fourth quarter.The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) stated that the Trump administration has resolved the aircraft certification issue with Canada.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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