EUR/USD 1.15579
0.134%
Gold 4169.11
-2.121%
Oil 88.327
1.117%
USD/JPY 160.403
0.025%
GBP/USD 1.34045
0.194%
GBP/JPY 215.017
0.220%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
June 10th - Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated that while US inflation remains uncomfortably high at 4%, weaker-than-expected core data did alleviate some pressure. With rising energy prices being the primary driver and housing costs easing, we havent yet seen clear signs of a broader second-round effect. This should allow the Federal Reserve to remain patient. Although the market seems to have overpriced further rate hikes this year, that risk remains, and todays data did not eliminate it.June 10 – As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% today. In its statement, the Bank of Canada noted that economic activity remained weak after a surprise 0.1% annualized decline in GDP in the first quarter (the third contraction in the past four quarters). The Bank of Canada avoided using the term "recession." The bank expects GDP to return to growth in the second quarter, "but even with some rebound, the economy is expected to remain in a state of overcapacity." Economists said that overcapacity (or economic slack) should help curb inflationary pressures.June 10 – The Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations, and stated that there is currently no sufficient evidence that rising energy prices are driving broad-based inflation. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem reiterated that the bank would not hesitate to raise interest rates to control inflation if necessary. Wednesdays decision marks the fifth consecutive time the Bank of Canada has kept its main policy rate at 2.25%, as several factors have complicated the economic outlook. The war in Iran has caused gasoline prices to soar, putting pressure on household budgets, although Canada, as a net exporter of crude oil, has benefited from increased revenue. The central bank stated, "To date, there is no sufficient evidence that high energy prices have been widely passed on to other consumer prices. The Governing Council will continue to ignore the short-term effects of the war on overall inflation, but will not allow rising energy prices to develop into persistent inflation."US Senate Majority Leader Thune: Trumps nomination for Director of Intelligence will be a major decision.US Senate Republican Leader Thune: Most Republican senators want to complete the mission in Iran.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

 EUR:USD.png

 

Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


Suggestion