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July 4 - Ali Azmai, former deputy commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, has been appointed as the commander of the IRGC Navy. Azmai previously served for a long time in the IRGC Navy.July 4th - According to the New York Times, four officials familiar with the details of the meeting revealed that in the final stages of negotiations, when Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei hesitated to approve the preliminary ceasefire agreement, Iranian President Pezechzian visited him. The Iranian president told the Supreme Leader that the economic situation was dire, the US naval blockade was strangling Iran, and he would resign if he rejected the agreement. Furthermore, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdulnaser Hemmati, also wrote to Khamenei, stating that the country faced a severe budget crisis and that critical food and medical supplies would run out by the end of August if the naval blockade continued. Hemmati explained in the letter that Iran could not sell oil on the required scale or find alternative trade routes. These statements played a crucial role in Mojtabas eventual decision to support the agreement. In a brief public statement, he stated that although he opposed the agreement "in principle," he instructed the president to proceed if he obtained the support of the Supreme National Security Council. Pezechzian stated that the council approved the agreement by 12 out of 13 votes.July 4th - According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake struck Binchuan County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province (25.95°N, 100.58°E) at 18:28 on July 4, 2026, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers. Following the earthquake, the China Earthquake Administration quickly activated a Level IV emergency response, coordinating with the China Earthquake Networks Center and the Yunnan Provincial Earthquake Administration to conduct emergency response, requiring relevant units to hold joint consultations, strengthen seismic monitoring and post-earthquake trend analysis, and promptly report relevant information.July 4th - At 17:30 Beijing time on July 4, 2026, my country successfully launched the Qianfan Polar Orbit 13 satellite constellation into its predetermined orbit using a Long March 6A carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center. The launch mission was a complete success.On July 4th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Mohelan stated on Saturday that following last months interest rate hike, data shows inflation has fallen with the plunge in oil prices, placing the ECB in a "favorable position." The ECB does not provide forward guidance, so it will not reveal its plans for July. However, the rapid decline in oil prices has provided some relief and puts the ECB in a more advantageous position regarding interest rates. Mohelan also stated that the ECBs 2.25% interest rate is "very low" compared to other central banks, and the June rate hike was "reasonable" under any circumstances. He further pointed out that the ECBs communication at the time indicated that this rate hike was not the start of a new tightening cycle.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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