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Google (GOOG.O): Gemini Spark is rolling out to Google AI Pro users outside the United States.August 1st - According to CBS News, citing multiple sources, the United States and Israel are planning "one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date" against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and oil refineries, with the operation possibly lasting throughout the weekend. Sources say Israel has been notified and is coordinating with the US, but Trump has not yet issued final approval. The report notes that the plan was proposed at Trumps cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday, and some White House political aides strongly opposed it, fearing the operation could impact the US and global economy. Trump stated, "Were going to hit them very hard." The US has also discussed cutting off Tehrans power supply, but no decision has been made. Previously, Trump stated that for every attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant. If this operation is carried out, it would mean Israel has resumed military operations that were previously suspended due to a US-mediated ceasefire.August 1st - According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, the Houthi rebels in Yemen stated that, in order to implement their strategy of "blockade against blockade," eight Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and circle the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on them. The Houthis stated that the blockade against Saudi Arabia will continue and warned that they will take action against relevant vessels within their capabilities. The Houthis also stated that they will continue to push for the lifting of the blockade on Yemen and to protect their own interests.The U.S. military stated that as of July 31, Central Command had altered the routes of 30 merchant ships, rendered two ships inoperable, and boarded and inspected two more.August 1st - According to the New York Times, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of the Feds regular interest rate decision meetings. This move could cause a major upheaval and mark the most significant change in the Feds operations in recent years. Currently, the Feds 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four sources familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed adjusting the meeting frequency at this weeks Fed meeting. These sources also revealed that at this weeks meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis for the minimum number of meetings the Fed must hold annually, and the timeline for such adjustments. Reportedly, Warsh requested that officials provide feedback to him, rather than having a comprehensive discussion of the meeting schedule at this weeks meeting.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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