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August 25th - According to the Financial Times, citing sources familiar with the matter, Trump administration officials last week requested Kyiv not to use long-range missiles and drones to attack Moscow, St. Petersburg, and northern Russia during Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, while a U.S. plane carrying senior officials was en route to the Russian capital. The sources said Ukraine agreed to this request. Today, a U.S. Air Force C-17 transport plane landed in Moscow. Russia previously stated it was unaware of the specific circumstances of the planes arrival; the Kremlin also stated that no meetings with U.S. government representatives were scheduled for this week.U.S. new home sales fell to their lowest level in six months in July, indicating that even with builders lowering prices and offering incentives, high mortgage rates are still suppressing homebuying demand. According to data released by the government on Tuesday, pending sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. fell 10.5% in July to an annualized rate of 607,000 units. Economists median forecast was 620,000 units. The median price of new homes fell 0.9% year-over-year to $393,800. New home sales have declined in three of the past four months, further indicating that the housing market is under pressure from both high financing costs and high home prices. While builders have achieved some success in boosting demand through free upgrades, subsidized mortgage rates, and price reductions, the entry-level housing market remains constrained by insufficient affordability.US President Trump: (Regarding Iran) We are closely monitoring every inch of the Strait of Hormuz and the land of the Golan Heights.US President Trump: (Regarding Iran) The US Navy has been notified that all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been removed and/or detonated. Iran has been notified that any vessels or small boats that lay new mines will be destroyed immediately and systematically.U.S. consumer confidence fell in August to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, as consumer views on the business environment and labor market outlook deteriorated. Data released Tuesday by the Conference Board showed that the consumer confidence index dropped 0.8 points to 89.4, with the previous months figure revised downward. The median forecast from economists was 90.2. The report indicated that high gasoline prices, rising overall cost of living, and slowing hiring continued to weigh on American households this month. The survey was conducted from August 3 to 16. During this period, as the renewed escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict pushed up gasoline prices, the average price of gasoline at U.S. gas stations hovered above $4 per gallon. The Conference Board survey showed that consumer views on the current job market improved somewhat in August. The proportion of consumers who thought there were "ample" job opportunities rose, while the proportion who thought "jobs are hard to find" fell. The difference between the two was the largest this year. However, respondents were more pessimistic about the employment and income prospects over the next six months.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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