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White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Expressing condolences to the family of Alan Greenspan.Canadas national economic confidence index was 50.4 as of June 19, compared to 50.2 previously. 1. According to Mysteel, from June 15th to June 21st, 2026, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 27.33 million tons, a decrease of 866,000 tons compared to the previous week; the total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports amounted to 25.957 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons compared to the previous week. 2. According to Longzhong Information, as of June 22nd, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China this week was 1.7264 million tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous week, a rise of 1.54%. Among them, light soda ash was 1.0669 million tons, an increase of 23,500 tons compared to the previous week, and heavy soda ash was 659,500 tons, an increase of 0.27 tons compared to the previous week. 3. According to Mysteels research, the latest bidding price for alumina in Xinjiang is 3170 yuan/ton (delivered to the factory), an increase of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. 4. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of June 22, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe route) was 3009.00 points, up 6.6% compared to the previous period. 5. According to AmSpec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, Malaysias palm oil exports from June 1 to 20 totaled 862,436 tons, a 25% increase compared to the 690,220 tons exported in the same period last month. 6. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressors Association (SPPOMA) shows that from June 1 to 20, 2026, Malaysias palm oil yield per hectare increased by 15.18% compared to the same period last month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.14% compared to the same period last month, and production increased by 15.92% compared to the same period last month. 7. According to a survey by the Timber Union, 7 ships carrying New Zealand coniferous logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports this week (June 22-28, 2026), a decrease of 6 ships compared to last week, representing a week-on-week decrease of 46%; the total arrival volume is approximately 229,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 195,000 cubic meters compared to last week, also representing a week-on-week decrease of 46%. 8. Steel mills in Hebei province have raised their coking coal purchase prices by 50/55 yuan/ton, effective from 00:00 on June 22, 2026. (Mysteel) 9. According to SMM, customs data shows that spodumene imports in May continued to decline compared to April, reaching 681,000 physical tons, equivalent to approximately 66,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). 10. Iraqs Deputy Oil Minister in charge of upstream affairs stated in a statement on Sunday that Iraq plans to gradually restore its daily crude oil production to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels. ANZ Bank expects daily production to recover to approximately 2 million to 3 million barrels within the first four weeks. 11. Xinhua News Agency reported that the State Energy Group announced its installed power generation capacity has exceeded 400 million kilowatts, accounting for about one-tenth of the national installed power generation capacity, playing a "pillar" role in ensuring stable national power supply and maintaining energy security. 12. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the margin requirements, price limits, transaction fees, and minimum order size for some futures contracts. 13. In May 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded 5,521.8 tons of gold, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year; the Shanghai Futures Exchange traded 11,000 tons of gold, a decrease of 54.6% year-on-year. 14. Xinhua News Agency reported that, according to Iranian media reports on the 22nd, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei confirmed that technical talks under the framework of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding began in Switzerland on the 22nd. 15. International Aluminium Institute (IAI): Global primary aluminum production in May 2026 is 6.15 million tons, compared with 6.258 million tons in the same period last year. Chinas primary aluminum production in May is expected to be 3.826 million tons, compared with a revised figure of 3.698 million tons in the previous month.According to Al Jazeera, Qatars Prime Minister and Foreign Minister stated that the outcome of any agreement between Iran and Washington would not only affect the two countries but also the entire region.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan died on June 22 at the age of 100. According to NBC News, citing his wife, Andrea Mitchell, the networks chief foreign affairs and chief Washington correspondent, he died at home on Monday from complications of Parkinsons disease. Greenspan led the U.S. economy through record expansion, but the financial crisis that erupted less than two years after he left office tarnished his reputation. Greenspan served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve for 18 years (from 1987 until his retirement in early 2006), during which time the U.S. stock market boomed and unemployment remained low. He is considered more of a "master" of maintaining a healthy economy than the four presidents he served or the seven Treasury secretaries he worked with. Roger Ferguson, who served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1999 to 2006, said, "Alan Greenspan should be remembered as one of the greatest central bank governors in the world in the second half of the 20th century, not just within the Federal Reserve." He noted that Greenspan "was one of the first to recognize the impact of technology on boosting American productivity, enabling the economy to grow faster than expected without triggering inflation."

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.