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On May 11, it was reported that Ali Al-Zaidi, a relatively unknown Iraqi businessman, has become a leading candidate for the next Iraqi prime minister after receiving support from US President Donald Trump. Trump not only invited the businessman to Washington but also stated that the US "will support him all the way." However, the White Houses support comes with conditions: Zaidi must exclude Iranian-backed militias from the next Iraqi government and weaken Tehrans influence in Baghdad. Zaidi has previously faced similar pressure from the US. Current and former US officials have stated that Zaidi owns a bank that the US Treasury Department banned from dollar transactions in 2024 due to suspicions of business dealings with a militia leader linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in December 2026 and March 2027, down from previous forecasts of cuts in September and December of this year.May 11 - According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 849,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%; from January to April, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.758 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%.On May 11, the Heilongjiang Provincial Communications Administration issued a notice soliciting public opinions on the "Heilongjiang Provinces 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Information and Communication Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that by 2027, the layout of new information infrastructure will be basically complete. 5G networks will cover cities, counties, towns, and scenic areas. Gigabit fiber broadband will achieve full coverage in urban and rural areas, and key industrial parks will achieve "10-gigabit backbones". By 2030, a high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated terrestrial and satellite information infrastructure, cloud-network convergence, intelligent and agile, green and low-carbon, and secure and controllable intelligent comprehensive information infrastructure will be basically completed.China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.384 million units in April, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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