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Wells Fargo: Extremely bullish on the market outlook, predicting the S&P 500 will surge to 8600-8800 points by the end of 2027.1. The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant lost external power for the 20th time. 2. Zelenskyy threatened Belarus: withdraw border facilities within a week or we will take action ourselves. 3. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy warned that Russia is about to launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine. 4. According to RIA Novosti: Slovakia will meet most of its natural gas needs through supplies from Russia. 5. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed a drone attack on an oil refining facility in Russias Tumen region. 6. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Medvedev: There are no longer any rules when dealing with Kyiv. 7. Local governor: Russian troops used glide bombs to attack Zaporizhia in southeastern Ukraine, killing 4 and injuring 6.June 21 (Observer) – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to resign and announce his departure timetable next Monday, but a government source says Starmer remains focused on his duties. Pressure on Starmers position has been mounting for months and intensified significantly on Friday after his political rival, Andy Burnham, won a seat in Parliament, enabling him to launch a formal leadership challenge. The Observer reports that Starmer is discussing the matter with his wife at his country residence, Chequers, and has not yet made a final decision, but several senior Labour Party members expect him to make a clear statement on his future as early as Monday. However, government sources emphasize that Starmer remains focused on fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister, citing his previous statements as evidence. More than 100 Labour MPs have publicly stated their desire for Starmer to resign or set a clear departure timetable, representing about a quarter of Labour MPs in the House of Commons.According to Reuters, British government sources say that Prime Minister Starmer is focused on fulfilling his duties.June 21st - According to the British newspaper *The Observer*, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing a timetable for his departure. This comes after Andy Burnham, who suffered a major defeat to the Reform Party in the Greater Manchester by-election and is scheduled to be sworn in as a Member of Parliament next Monday. His supporters claim that if Starmer does not resign, Burnham has secured the support of over 201 Labour MPs to challenge him for leadership. This number exceeds half of the Labour Party in Parliament, meaning Starmer can no longer demonstrate his confidence in the House of Commons to the King. It is reported that after several rounds of discussions with cabinet ministers, Downing Street advisors, union leaders, and party donors, Starmer has concluded that his position in power is no longer secure. Senior Labour figures believe that Starmer may issue a "clear statement" as early as Monday. A Labour MP close to Starmer said: “He has come to terms with reality. As he said, preventing ‘chaos’ is no longer possible by staying in office, so there is only one option left. I think he has seen it as a responsible choice for the country and the party.” Another senior Labour figure said that Starmer now appears to have “accepted” the reality of his resignation.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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