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September 3rd - RatingDog Chinas services PMI for August was 51.4, up 1.0 percentage point from July, marking the 44th consecutive month in expansion territory, with a slight increase in the pace of expansion. Demand-side growth improved. New business volume increased for the 44th consecutive month, with the growth rate accelerating compared to July. New export business continued to expand for the fourth consecutive month, although the growth rate slowed further from the years high in June. Business expectations for the next 12 months rebounded from the recent low in July. Cost pressures rose slightly, while employment continued to expand. Input price increases rebounded slightly from the six-month low in July, but remained moderate overall. Sales prices rose slightly for the third consecutive month. Employment size rebounded for the fourth consecutive month, marking the longest consecutive growth period since 2023. Overall, the service sector expansion rate in August rebounded slightly from July, with faster growth in business activity and new orders, continued employment expansion, and improved business confidence.Chinas RatingDog Composite PMI for August was 52.1, compared to 50.8 in the previous month.September 3 – According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that six months ago, when the US launched military action against Iran, Defense Secretary Hergsays pledged a swift and decisive strike to avoid a protracted conflict. Now, he is quietly extending troop deployments, suggesting the conflict could continue into next year. Sources indicated this is part of a US military strategy without a clear timeframe, designed to give Trump more options in a war. However, the deployment of 19 warships, air defense units, fighter squadrons, and paratroopers across the region is increasing pressure on US personnel and their families, while the resulting maintenance backlog could take years to clear. One source stated that the standard deployment period for Army air defense units responsible for intercepting Iranian missiles and drones under high-pressure conditions has been extended from nine months to 12 months. Some units originally planned for deployment in Europe and the Pacific but later redeployed to the Middle East have been deployed for over a year.According to the Kuwait News Agency: Alarms have been sounded nationwide.On September 3, local time, the defense team of Venezuelan President Maduro, who is under the control of the United States, filed a motion in the Southern District of New York Federal Court on September 2, requesting the dismissal of the fourth alternative indictment against him on the grounds of immunity. Judge Alvin Hellestein scheduled the hearing for the motion to be held on the morning of November 17, 2026. The defense team attached a legal memorandum, a statement from Pollack, and several annexes to the request, including a ruling from the Constitutional Court of the Venezuelan Supreme Court dated January 3, 2026, a document from the United Socialist Party, and two rulings from Italian courts. It is understood that the filing of this motion does not mean the case has been dismissed. The prosecution will now respond, and the judge will decide whether this defense claim stands against the charges brought by the United States.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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