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July 13th - According to South Korean media reports, industry insiders revealed on Monday that Samsung Electronics has begun preparations for the production of Teslas (TSLA.O) next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) chip, the AI5. Previously, a Samsung executive posted on LinkedIn that Teslas AI5 chip had completed the tape-out process, meaning that the final design work before mass production has been completed. The AI5 is a chip developed by Tesla to provide computing power for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, the Optimus humanoid robot, and AI data centers.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: He will guide the government to support three key projects: semiconductors, artificial intelligence data centers, and physical artificial intelligence.July 13 – Europe has been maintaining air transport by importing jet fuel from the US and Asia, increasing refinery output, and drawing on reserves, but the risk of further supply disruptions has increased as tensions in the Middle East escalate again. The UK, France, and Germany are particularly vulnerable. Data released by consultancy Energy Aspects on June 18 shows that Europes jet fuel supply deficit in the third quarter is expected to approach 600,000 barrels per day, while the US and Asia-Pacific regions have supply surpluses of 116,000 barrels per day and 425,000 barrels per day, respectively. Energy Aspects stated that European jet fuel inventories stood at 38 million barrels at the beginning of June. Reuters calculations show that European inventories could only meet less than 30 days of demand, making it the tightest supply region among the worlds major jet fuel markets. Data from the International Energy Agencys latest monthly report shows that as of the end of May, jet fuel inventories were estimated to have increased by 10% year-on-year, while refinery output increased by 30%. This also means that Europe has only about a months buffer time. Energy analyst Janiv Shah said, "Based on current developments, we expect the market tightness to continue into August."On July 13th, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures opened lower and then fluctuated downwards. Canadian canola futures surged, with the benchmark contract closing more than 5% higher, mainly reflecting the threat to canola crop growth posed by recent excessive rainfall on the grasslands and the heatwave in the EU. Strengthening Chicago soybean and soybean oil futures, along with a rebound in international crude oil futures, also provided support. Rapeseed meal spot prices followed the market decline slightly. On the demand side, demand was affected by heavy rainfall in South China, hindering the circulation of domestic rapeseed meal spot goods. Some crushing plants shut down, resulting in reduced rapeseed meal production and a slight decrease in inventory. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue their volatile adjustment.On July 13th, Daiwa issued a research report predicting that Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) will raise its AI capital expenditure forecast, which will put pressure on its mid-term earnings. Meanwhile, while growth in the gaming business has slowed due to a high base, its market share growth momentum remains strong. The bank lowered its 2026-2028 earnings per share forecasts for the company by 1% to 6% to reflect the impact. Daiwa significantly raised its 2026 AI capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from RMB 108 billion to approximately RMB 181 billion to reflect the companys stronger commitment to AI investment and improved chip supply. Although higher depreciation will drag down its near-to-mid-term earnings performance, it is also expected to drive faster expansion of the cloud business and monetization of AI demand, which is expected to be released from the second half of 2026. Daiwa maintains its "Buy" rating on Tencent, but lowers its target price from HKD 700 to HKD 670.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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