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U.S. stocks opened higher but closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both turning negative.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ivashenko, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, will be appointed as the new head of the Military Intelligence Service.Intel (INTC.O) extended its gains to 8%.On January 2nd, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that while manufacturers continued to increase output in December, suggesting the goods-producing sector will contribute to further strong economic growth in the fourth quarter, the outlook for early 2026 looks less optimistic. In fact, the gap between production growth and declining orders is the largest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Unless demand improves, current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable. If production capacity has to be reduced, employment will also be adversely affected. A key factor contributing to concerns about sales is the extent to which producers will have to pass on higher costs to consumers in the form of price increases, with the cost increases still largely attributed to tariffs. Input cost inflation slowed to its lowest level since January of last year in December, providing some encouragement. However, while this cost trend suggests that the impact of tariffs on inflation peaked as early as the summer, costs are still rising at a high rate month-on-month, indicating that cost increases for U.S. businesses continue to outpace those of their competitors in most other major economies.The final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December in the United States was 51.8, in line with expectations and the previous reading of 51.8.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.