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On August 22nd, it was reported that long-term government bond yields in major global economies have continued to rise recently, increasing selling pressure in the bond market. However, Chinas bond market and exchange rate have remained relatively stable, with Panda bond issuance reaching a record high for the same period. Data shows that as of August 21st, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds in 2026 reached 209.975 billion yuan, an increase of over 73% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of sharp fluctuations in the global bond market, the increased investment by international institutions in domestic RMB financing has attracted attention. Industry insiders explained, "We and overseas markets are in completely different economic and monetary cycles. Foreign capital accounts for only about 5%-8% of my countrys bond market, while domestic capital holds absolute pricing power. Coupled with our monetary policy adhering to a self-reliant approach, overseas shocks cannot reverse the overall trend of the domestic bond market." Looking ahead, industry insiders believe that overseas bond yields are likely to remain highly volatile, highlighting the investment value of RMB bonds, and potentially leading to continued foreign investment in the medium to long term. However, it should be noted that rising US Treasury yields have raised the return threshold for global investment funds, which may disrupt the willingness of overseas institutions to increase their holdings of RMB bonds. In addition, the rapid rise in bond yields in developed countries overseas may also constrain the valuation of domestic risky assets.On August 22, the U.S. Department of Defense dismissed Eric Slavin, editor-in-chief of the military newspaper Stars and Stripes, publisher Max Laidler, and senior Middle East correspondent Lara Cortt on August 21 for "insubordination." This followed the newspapers recent report on poor working conditions and sailors mental breakdowns aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, sparking renewed criticism within the U.S. regarding the Trump administrations inability to end the conflict with Iran. Slavin stated in an interview on August 21 that he was dismissed for "insubordination." He had previously discussed his disagreements with the Department of Defense in an interview. Cortt wrote on the social media platform X on the same day: "Today, I was informed that the Department of Defense has dismissed me for insubordination."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, Iranian officials have called on Qatar to transfer the detained Iranian pilot to a land-based hospital. Iranian officials stated that the detained pilot is currently on the water and is in "very poor" condition.According to Al Jazeera: Alarms sounded in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, as the government warned of a possible missile attack.On August 22, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management organized a joint consultation meeting with the China Meteorological Administration, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Transport, and key provinces including Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian. The meeting assessed the development of Typhoon Saudel (No. 18) and Typhoon Zitan (No. 19), as well as the development of heavy rainfall and the flood control situation in the Heilongjiang River main stream and Taihu Lake basin. The meeting also deployed flood and typhoon prevention work. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management maintained a Level IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, and a Level IV emergency response for flood control in Jiangsu.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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