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On May 8th, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly downplayed the disagreements surrounding the Feds statement, hinting that she wouldnt vote against it like some of her colleagues. She stated that the wording of the statement was less important than the actions taken, and that the real signal from the meeting was unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to wording that hinted at future rate cuts, arguing that the uncertainty surrounding the energy shock and the Iran war made a "rates could rise or fall" signal more appropriate. Daly, who has no voting rights this year, said the public understands the Feds responsibility for price stability. Daly stated that there are no signs that energy prices are pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "Its too early to judge. If the conflict ends and oil prices fall without escalating to the broader economy, the pre-conflict dynamics are expected to return to normal." She is committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but shouldnt overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She described policy as "slightly tightening," adding that a resolution to the war would put downward pressure on inflation; the labor market is stable and has not generated inflationary pressure.Federal Reserves Kashkari: Optimistic about artificial intelligence.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by about $2 in the short term, currently trading at $98.08 per barrel and $100.58 per barrel respectively.Federal Reserves Daly: There are currently no signs that soaring energy prices are pushing up medium- to long-term inflation expectations.Federal Reserves Daly: Current monetary policy is "slightly tight," and if the conflict between the United States and Iran is resolved, it will put downward pressure on inflation.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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