• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Sources say the U.S. government is close to reaching an agreement to secure long-term access to Venezuela’s oil reserves.On August 28th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf posted a sarcastic remark on social media, criticizing US Treasury Secretary John Bessenter and citing a New York Times report that Irans creditworthiness in the bond market is under pressure. The post stemmed from Bessenters previous criticism of the Iranian government on social media. He stated that while Iranians struggle to afford even basic necessities, the "corrupt Iranian regime is squandering huge sums of money overseas," and that it should spend those billions on its own people instead of channeling them to so-called "terrorist proxies." Ghalibaf responded with almost identical statements: instead of investing heavily in Israel, a "terrorist proxy," and the approximately 750 US military bases worldwide, this "declining empire" could certainly use its money on its own people. "But wait, that might be too reasonable for this regime," he added. He then directly addressed Bessenter: "Scott, man, your credibility is in jeopardy. Do something worthwhile." The post also included a link to the New York Times report. According to the report, Bessenter attempted to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term US Treasury bond repurchase agreements, but the market response was lukewarm. With US debt already reaching $40 trillion and the situation in Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures, its ability to "tame" the bond market and its personal credit are facing increasing challenges.Conflict Situation: 1. The Israeli military claims to have shot down a Hezbollah drone. 2. The Israeli military decides to expand its troop deployment in the West Bank. 3. Sources: Israel launched an attack near the outskirts of Damascus, the Syrian capital. 4. Rezaei: If the US again "disrupts" Iran during its meeting with the Qatari Foreign Minister, Iran will strike the US military and its economic interests. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Iranian sources: Consultations on the details of the Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman are still ongoing. 2. Qatar and Iran discussed an agreement to implement a "joint project" to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Rezaei: The mediators have asked Iran to propose conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is preparing a list of conditions. 4. Rezaei: The US must take concrete steps to meet Irans conditions in order to reach an agreement before Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Peace Negotiations: 1. According to the Wall Street Journal: Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated to the mediators that it has no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June of this year. 2. The White House: (Regarding Iran) There are currently no negotiations; all options are under consideration. Reiterates the US focus on economic isolation of Iran; the naval blockade remains in effect. Other matters: 1. Iran denies plans to assassinate Trumps youngest son. 2. British media: Israel considers expelling British officials from the Gaza Reconciliation Center. 3. Iranian President calls for strengthened economic cooperation among Muslim countries. 4. According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya TV: A senior Iranian official stated that due to the US naval blockade, Iran is unable to import enough fuel to compensate for insufficient domestic production. 5. Irans Oil Minister stated that despite reductions, Irans offshore oil sales and deliveries have not stopped. 6. Iranian officials inspect oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. 7. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament met with the Qatari Prime Minister to exchange views on easing regional tensions. 8. Iranian officials: There is no shortage of goods; the main problem is rising prices. 9. According to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA): Kuwait and Pakistan sign a defense agreement. 10. The US Department of Justice plans to reopen arrest trials to seize Iranian oil tankers.On August 28th, top Canadian economists told the countrys finance minister that the damage from the escalating trade war with the United States should be manageable, potentially bolstering Prime Minister Carneys confidence in withdrawing from negotiations. The finance minister reportedly convened a closed-door meeting in Toronto with chief economists, including those representing several of Canadas largest banks, to discuss the economic outlook following the breakdown of trade talks with the US. While some economists lowered their economic growth forecasts and warned that new US tariffs on hundreds of Canadian goods could hit small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) hardest, some attendees revealed that discussions about the risk of recession were minimal. Instead, participants generally agreed that the Canadian economy was strong enough to withstand the series of tariffs imposed by Trump. Some economists stated that tariffs would indeed cause damage, but the impact would likely be concentrated primarily in the sectors affected by the tariffs.U.S. Treasury officials say bond yields will fall as inflation gradually cools; the Trump administration is committed to lowering long-term bond yields.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

 EUR:USD.png

 

Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.