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On June 10th, Futures News reported that Trump stated a peace agreement with Iran was expected to be signed within two or three days, and US Energy Secretary Wright indicated a "significant increase" in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. During Asian trading hours, oil prices continued their decline from Monday, with WTI falling below the $90 mark, briefly approaching $85, a drop of over 10% from its high in two trading days. In the early morning, oil prices rebounded sharply after Trump declared a response to the downing of a US military aircraft by Iran, narrowing the losses by the close. Crude oil prices have seen significantly increased volatility this week, and many uncertainties remain. Foreign media statistics show that US President Trump has declared an agreement "imminent" 37 times, but no agreement has been reached to date. Besides geopolitical factors, supply and demand are also negatively impacting the market. Oil prices have already fallen back to around $90, and the potential for further significant declines in the short term is relatively limited. If US-Iran negotiations do not proceed smoothly, oil prices still have a high probability of rebounding.1. U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.17% to 50,872.11 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.26% to 7,386.65 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.97% to 25,678.82 points. Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams rose more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones gains. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.24%, with Apple falling more than 3% and Tesla falling 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.39%, with Daqo New Energy falling more than 7% and Jinko Solar falling nearly 7%. 2. European stock indexes closed mixed. The German DAX fell 0.74% to 24,433.06 points, the French CAC40 rose 0.05% to 8,203.43 points, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 1.41% to 10,227.33 points. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 2.85% at $88.7 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 2.57% to $91.83 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.80% to $4284.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 4.56% to $65.46 per ounce.Sources say SpaceX has informed investors that it aims to begin testing orbital AI computing in 2027.According to Iranian state media, the situation has now calmed down following the US attack on southern Iran.According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration has asked AI testing organizations to stop publishing public reports, reflecting the White Houses increased control over AI models.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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