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US semiconductor stocks continued to rise in pre-market trading, with TSMC (TSM.N) up more than 4%, ASML (ASML.O) up 3.2%, Arm (ARM.O) up 4.8%, and Broadcom (AVGO.O) up more than 1.3%.On July 31st, Hong Kong stocks opened slightly lower this morning after four consecutive days of gains. The Hang Seng Index opened 21 points lower at 25837, and the market briefly dipped below the 250-day moving average, falling as much as 235 points to a low of 25622. It then gradually stabilized and rebounded, even turning positive at one point during the session. In the afternoon, the market continued to fluctuate around 25800. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.1%, with a gain of over 13% in July; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.53%, with a gain of nearly 8% in July. The total turnover of the Hang Seng Index was HK$328.17 billion. On the sector front, storage concept stocks, AI newly listed stocks, and PCB concept stocks rebounded sharply, while brain-computer interface, electronic components, and commercial aerospace sectors also saw significant rebounds. Alcoholic beverages, consumer electronics, and mainland-traded stocks fluctuated and retreated, while automobile, paper, and dairy stocks weakened during the session. In terms of individual stocks, CSOPs double-leveraged long position in Hynix (07709.HK) surged over 67.5%, CSOPs double-leveraged long position in Samsung Electronics (07747.HK) surged over 48%, Zhipu (02513.HK) surged over 14.5%, MiniMax (00100.HK) surged over 13%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) surged over 10%; Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) fell over 7%, and Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) fell over 6.5%.The European Central Bank (ECB) reported that in June, the composite borrowing cost index for new corporate loans rose 15 basis points to 3.79%; the composite interest rate index for new household home loans remained largely unchanged at 3.51%. The composite interest rate for new corporate time deposits rose 17 basis points to 2.21%; the overnight corporate deposit rate rose 6 basis points to 0.59%. The composite interest rate for new household time deposits rose 13 basis points to 2.09%; the overnight household deposit rate remained largely unchanged at 0.28%.The Bank of Japans bond-buying program remained unchanged in August from that in July.Rivian (RIVN.O), the U.S. electric vehicle company, rose 4% in pre-market trading after the companys quarterly revenue exceeded expectations.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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