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On September 1st, Westpac Bank predicted that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2nd, a prediction consistent with market expectations. The bank anticipates that the RBNZs policy forecasts will suggest a year-end rate of 3%, with a peak potentially approaching 3.3%. Regarding a potential further rate hike in October, the bank expects the RBNZ to signal a data-dependent outcome. Unless the RBNZ deviates from Westpacs expected "data-dependent" framework in its statements about October policy action, the potential for a sharp market reaction is limited. The bank believes the probability of a hawkish surprise, an upward revision of the neutral rate assumption, or a clearer signal of consecutive rate hikes in October and December is only 10% to 15%; similarly, the probability of a dovish surprise suggesting a pause in rate hikes before December is also 10% to 15%. This implies that the risks around the baseline scenario are roughly symmetrical, with no significant bias.South Korea plans to expand government spending to a record high next year, funding an artificial intelligence investment program and channeling over 160 trillion won ($117 billion) in unexpected tax revenue from the semiconductor industry into a new fund. The Ministry of Planning and Budget announced on Tuesday that the government proposes fiscal spending of 820.9 trillion won in 2027, a 12.8% increase from this years budget. This is a record high, surpassing the 10.6% increase in 2009 and the 9.1% increase during the pandemic in 2020. At the heart of the plan is a new "Futures Response Fund." Instead of channeling all unexpected tax revenue increases into annual spending, the government will allocate tax revenue exceeding long-term fiscal revenue trends to this fund. The South Korean government expects to allocate 162.3 trillion won to the fund, primarily reflecting the anticipated increase in domestic tax revenue exceeding the trend levels of the past 10 years.Estonian Foreign Minister: (Regarding last nights drone alert) NATO responded swiftly and acted entirely according to plan; NATO remains vigilant and ready to protect the territory of its allies.According to Futures News on September 1st, 2026, Chinas LNG supply in August was 5.01 billion cubic meters, an increase of 1.2% month-on-month and a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year. With the increase in imported LNG tanker shipments exceeding the decrease in domestic LNG production, the LNG supply showed an increasing trend this month. Domestic LNG production in August was 3.84 billion cubic meters, averaging 124 million cubic meters per day, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. Imported LNG liquid supply in August was 1.17 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.3% month-on-month and a decrease of 35.7% year-on-year. It is estimated that LNG liquid supply in September 2026 will be around 4.94 billion cubic meters, averaging 165 million cubic meters per day, an increase of 2.5% month-on-month; domestic LNG production in September 2026 is estimated to be around 3.85 billion cubic meters, averaging 128 million cubic meters per day, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month; and imported LNG tanker shipments in September are estimated to be around 1.09 billion cubic meters, averaging 36 million cubic meters per day, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month.On September 1st, at a press conference for the 2026 National Cybersecurity Awareness Week, Wang Lihong, Deputy Director and First-Level Inspector of the Cybersecurity Coordination Bureau of the Cyberspace Administration of China, introduced to CCTV reporters that the field of artificial intelligence currently faces five main security risks and challenges. First, the inherent vulnerabilities of the technology are difficult to eradicate, affecting the stability and reliability of output. Second, leaps in model capabilities are disrupting traditional security paradigms, revealing the risk of extreme loss of control. Third, the rapid evolution of application forms is accelerating the iteration of security risks. Fourth, the risks of misuse, abuse, and malicious use are becoming increasingly prominent, impacting social order and ethical boundaries. Fifth, the global artificial intelligence field faces the risk of technological hegemony.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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