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On August 18th, the General Office of the Sichuan Provincial Peoples Government recently issued the "Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Integration of the Three Networks: Transportation Network, Logistics Network, and Data Network." The opinions propose to orderly promote the development and expansion of unmanned logistics. Unmanned logistics scenarios will be expanded in areas such as urban and rural distribution, trunk transportation, industrial park short-haul transportation, warehousing and sorting, and loading and unloading. The opinions also actively cultivate intelligent air-ground collaborative scenarios combining "unmanned vehicles + drones" and "manned vehicles + drones." Focusing on the "new three categories" of products—lithium batteries, photovoltaic modules, and new energy vehicles—the opinions promote the government and market to collaboratively build a carbon emission accounting and carbon footprint management system, guide enterprises to establish carbon asset management systems and participate in carbon trading, and drive the green and low-carbon transformation of the entire production, distribution, and consumption industries.According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 6.02 million tons of steel plates in July 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; cumulative exports from January to July reached 38.26 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%.According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 791 tons of polysilicon in July 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%; cumulative imports from January to July totaled 8,572 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.8%.According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 42.73 million tons of coal and lignite in July 2026, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%; cumulative imports from January to July reached 268.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. On the export side, China exported 770,000 tons of coal and lignite in July, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; cumulative exports from January to July reached 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%.On August 18th, three analysts from DBS Groups research department stated in a commentary that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may accelerate its interest rate hike pace from the current once every six months to once every three to four months. The analysts noted, "We have moved up our expectation for the BOJs next rate hike to September, and anticipate two more rate hikes each in the first and second quarters of 2027, bringing the overnight call rate to 1.75% by mid-2027." They also pointed out that the BOJs recent statements have become more hawkish, and the Japanese government seems less opposed to raising rates earlier than anticipated. DBS Group also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Japan from 0.5% to 0.9%, and its 2027 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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