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Futures News, August 11th: Oil prices continued to rise, and positive news and cost guidance for fuel oil fuels fueled the upward trend in refineries. However, downstream traders remained cautious in their purchasing, hesitant to place orders at high prices, with market transactions primarily driven by immediate needs, thus limiting further price increases. It is expected that fuel oil trading today will see some areas remain stable, with some experiencing slight increases.According to Futures News on August 11, as of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.53% and spot palladium rose 0.72%.Singapores Ministry of Trade and Industry has revised its 2026 non-oil domestic export growth forecast upward from 3.0%-5.0% to 14.0%-16.0%.On August 11th, Futures News reported that precious metal prices fluctuated and strengthened on Monday, with international gold prices approaching their highest level since mid-June. Domestic Shanghai gold and silver futures prices both rose by more than 2%, indicating a significant recovery in market bullish sentiment. 1. "Recently, multiple positive factors have converged to drive the rise in gold and silver prices," said Bai Suna, chief precious metals analyst at Guomao Futures. She explained that the simultaneous weakening of geopolitical and macroeconomic negative factors has laid a solid foundation for the rebound in gold and silver prices. On the one hand, the Strait of Hormuz signaled a peace talks, and the decline in oil prices eased upward pressure on US inflation, reducing the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market. On the other hand, US non-farm payrolls and ADP employment data for July were all weak, with non-farm payrolls significantly lower than expected, cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike and pushing down the dollar and US Treasury yields, easing valuation pressures on precious metals. 2. Looking ahead, analysts generally believe that the short-term fluctuation and medium-to-long-term upward trend in gold and silver prices remains unchanged. Bai Suna stated that the logic of a medium-to-long-term upward trend in gold and silver prices remains unchanged. With factors such as the gradual decline in US inflation, the continued weakening of negative macroeconomic factors, limited upside potential for US Treasury real interest rates, and the ongoing global de-dollarization process, the gold bull market is expected to continue. Overall, gold and silver prices are currently at a cyclical bottom, and market volatility is high. Investors are advised to closely monitor three core variables: geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy, avoid blindly chasing the market higher, and manage their positions prudently.August 11th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Intel (INTC.O) is seeking to expand its stock offering to approximately $20 billion, a third higher than the $15 billion target set when it announced the deal Monday morning. The sources indicated that Intel expects to offer shares at approximately $95 per share or higher. One source stated that if the so-called over-allotment option is exercised, the offering could further expand to over $20 billion, and demand for the offering has already exceeded $100 billion. The sources indicated that discussions are ongoing, and details, including the offering size and pricing, are still subject to change.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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