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On August 22, the Colombian National Disaster Risk Management Agency issued an updated disaster report stating that the strong earthquake that struck the country recently has caused 329 deaths, 4,600 injuries, and 247 missing persons, with 364 people rescued. According to the China Earthquake Networks Center, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck northwestern Colombia on the evening of August 10 (morning of August 10 local time), with a focal depth of 80 kilometers. Thirty-two cities across Colombia were severely affected.On August 22, the second working meeting of the Organizing Committee of the 26th China International Fair for Investment and Trade (CIFIT) was held in Xiamen, Fujian Province. Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations, and Zhao Zenglian, Vice Governor of Fujian Province, attended the meeting and delivered speeches. Representatives from relevant departments and member units of the CIFIT preparatory working group reported on the progress of their preparatory work. The meeting emphasized the need to closely adhere to the permanent theme of "Expanding Two-Way Investment and Promoting Global Development," deepen CIFITs functional positioning as a landmark exhibition for "Investing in China" and a public platform for global investment cooperation, further coordinate event arrangements, strengthen collaboration, enhance project matching, refine organizational support, improve media publicity, and enhance the quality and effectiveness of the event to ensure the 26th CIFIT achieves a new look and a new level of success.August 22nd - The APEC Customs and Business Dialogue concluded yesterday (August 21st). Reporters learned at the dialogue that Chinese customs has signed six bilateral agreements with relevant departments of several APEC economies, including Chile and South Korea, covering imported agricultural and food products such as instant noodles containing meat and fresh fruits.On August 22nd, experts stated that the price increase of domestically produced large-scale models is a correction to the long-standing inversion of inference computing power costs. In the short term, this is more like a recalibration of price and value. However, if manufacturers only raise prices without keeping up with stability and other aspects, users will vote with their feet, as the cost of replacing models is decreasing. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor the dual verification of the price increase strategy: firstly, whether manufacturers have matched the price increase with new model capabilities, rather than simply raising the price of old models; secondly, it is necessary to pay attention to where the increased revenue is used, whether it has been used for computing power expansion and service capability building.On August 22, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that on August 21, Russian forces continued their strikes against ports and vessels serving the interests of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The report stated that Russian drones struck a military warehouse in the port of Leny; a Ukrainian naval patrol boat in the port of Chernomorsk; and port infrastructure used for storing military supplies in a southern port. Additionally, Russian forces seized control of a settlement in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy posted on social media on August 21 that Ukrainian forces launched long-range strikes in the early hours of the day, hitting two important Russian targets: an oil refinery and a military airfield. Ukraine also stated that it had achieved results on the Black Sea front, but did not disclose specific targets or the extent of damage.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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