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In a report, Magdalene Teo, Asia fixed income analyst at Julius Baer, noted that with renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, most Asian central banks are likely to maintain their current interest rates and remain hawkish. The report stated that economic growth in Asia is expected to slow this year due to supply chain disruptions and the ongoing impact of global energy price shocks, with both consumers and traditional industries facing pressure. Teo anticipates that the central banks of Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines will maintain a hawkish stance. She added, "However, if US economic data continues to weaken, a weaker dollar could provide some room for Asian central banks to support economic growth."Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank stated that the latest UK employment data shows the labor market remains fragile, but initial signs of stabilization have emerged. The data shows the UK unemployment rate remains relatively high at 4.9%, and wage earners have declined again. However, job vacancy data has improved, with the number of job advertisements increasing for the first time since December last year; in the three months to May, layoffs fell to 108,000, the lowest level since July last year. Raja said that the Bank of Englands survey suggests the job market may be turning around, with employers now planning to maintain largely stable staff sizes. Slower wage growth will also be reassuring for the Bank of England as it pushes inflation back to its target level.Kremlin: Russia will continue to crack down on ships involved in supplying the Ukrainian military.Uganda Aviation will purchase four 737-8 aircraft and four 787-9 aircraft from Boeing (BA.N).According to the Wall Street Journal, BAE Systems stated that a Ukrainian company will be responsible for manufacturing artillery weapons. If Ukraine is capable of manufacturing such large foreign products, Patriot missiles could be the next target.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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