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Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December, compared to previous forecasts of cuts in March and June.JPMorgan Chase no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026, after previously anticipating a 25 basis point cut in January. JPMorgan Chase now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2027.On January 12th, according to Tianyancha business information, Changsha Haxing Network Technology Co., Ltd. was recently established. The legal representative is Yang Chenxi, the registered capital is US$10 million, and the business scope includes machinery and equipment leasing, shared bicycle services, information system integration services, electric bicycle sales, personal business services, internet sales, ticket agency services, centralized fast charging stations, and cloud computing equipment sales.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.0 earthquake occurred at 13:41 on January 12 in Yunlong County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province (25.63 degrees north latitude, 99.07 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.January 12th - Driven by strong Black Friday sales, Australian household spending in November 2025 is projected to rise 1.0% month-on-month. Citigroup stated that, given the increased spending, it has revised its fourth-quarter 2025 household consumption growth forecast upwards to 1.5% from 1.0% (the previous forecast was already high). Citigroup economist Faraz Said added that quarterly GDP growth may far exceed the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) expectations. Therefore, Citigroup maintains its previous assessment that the RBA will need to raise interest rates in February and May.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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