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On February 6th, the China Chamber of Commerce for Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCEIP) noted that the European Commission recently launched an in-depth investigation into a Chinese wind power company under the EUs Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR). This is the second such investigation following the EUs in-depth investigation into a Chinese security inspection equipment company last December. CCCEIP expresses strong concern and opposition to this. Chinese wind power and other green industry companies have made significant contributions to Europes green transformation and addressing global climate change by expanding into the European market through continuous technological innovation, a complete industrial and supply chain, and products tailored to the needs of the European market and consumers. There is enormous potential for cooperation between China and the EU in the fields of green energy and digital infrastructure construction. CCCEIP strongly urges the EU to uphold an objective and impartial stance, exercise caution in using unilateral investigation tools, provide a non-discriminatory and predictable business environment for Chinese companies operating in Europe, and jointly promote industrial integration and connectivity between China and the EU to achieve global green and sustainable development goals.February 6th Futures News: The following are the warehouse receipts and changes for various commodities traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 1. International copper futures warehouse receipts: 12,667 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 31,088 tons, an increase of 598 tons from the previous trading day; 3. TSR20 rubber futures warehouse receipts: 51,004 tons, an increase of 605 tons from the previous trading day; 4. Pulp warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 131,447 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Pulp mill warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 15,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous trading day; 6. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts: 155,533 tons, an increase of 1,201 tons from the previous trading day; 7. Gold futures warehouse receipts: 104,052 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Copper futures warehouse receipts: 160,172 tons, a decrease of 507 tons from the previous trading day; 9. Alumina futures warehouse receipts totaled 218,000 tons, an increase of 2,407 tons from the previous trading day; 10. Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts totaled 220,579 tons, an increase of 21,132 tons from the previous trading day; 11. Nickel futures warehouse receipts totaled 51,274 tons, an increase of 810 tons from the previous trading day; 12. Rebar warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 16,015 tons, a decrease of 306 tons from the previous trading day; 13. Stainless steel warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 47,740 tons, an increase of 1,770 tons from the previous trading day; 14. Petroleum asphalt plant warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 26,490 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 15. Petroleum asphalt warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 13,580 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 16. Silver futures warehouse receipts totaled 349,900 kg, a decrease of 62,559 kg from the previous trading day; 17. Tin futures warehouse receipts totaled 6,716 tons, a decrease of 296 tons from the previous trading day; 18. Butadiene rubber futures warehouse receipts totaled 32,170 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day; 19. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 3,464,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 20. Lead futures warehouse receipts totaled 35,805 tons, an increase of 1,994 tons from the previous trading day; 21. Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts totaled 23,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 22. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts totaled 112,070 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous trading day; 23. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.On February 6th, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated at a press conference following a monetary policy briefing on Friday that India has not sold its holdings of US Treasury bonds. Malhotra said, "Our foreign exchange reserves have decreased, so all holdings change accordingly. These are fluctuations we disclose daily or weekly, but there has been no reduction in our holdings of US Treasury bonds." According to data released by the US government in January, as of November, Indias holdings of long-term US Treasury bonds had fallen to $174 billion, the lowest level in five years, down 26% from its peak in 2023, when the RBI was intensifying its efforts to support the weakening rupee. Indias move to reduce its US Treasury holdings comes against the backdrop of some major economies gradually withdrawing from the worlds largest bond market, due to rising concerns about "American exceptionalism." Malhotras latest statement comes as Trump decides to lower tariffs on India from 50% to 18%.On February 6th, PwC released its "2025 China M&A Market Review and Outlook," revealing that the total transaction value for the year exceeded US$400 billion, a surge of 47% year-on-year, marking the first annual increase in nearly five years. The total number of transactions surpassed 12,000, an increase of nearly 20%, indicating a comprehensive strengthening of market activity. The report shows that benefiting from multiple positive factors such as capital market valuation repair, policy dividends, and accelerated industrial upgrading, the Chinese M&A market achieved a significant recovery in 2025, with both transaction volume and value increasing substantially. Domestic strategic investment led the strong recovery in the M&A market, with domestic strategic investors completing 3,639 M&A transactions throughout the year, totaling US$239 billion, a significant increase of 83% year-on-year. Of the 34 mega-deals in the domestic strategic investment sector, more than half were led by state-owned capital, and many were concentrated in industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and new energy.The onshore yuan closed at 6.9401 against the US dollar at 16:30 on February 6, up 7 points from the previous trading day.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.