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April 6th - According to a report by the Brazilian website "Situation for the World" on April 5th, Cuban authorities announced on the 4th that they had completed the unloading of 100,000 tons of crude oil from the Russian-deployed oil tanker "Anatoly Kolodkin" in the Gulf of Matanzas, aiming to alleviate Cubas energy crisis caused by the intensified US blockade. This crude oil will be refined in the coming days to produce gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), all essential for maintaining basic public services and the national economy. The unloading operation, carried out by the Cuban National Oil Company (PDO), is part of an energy cooperation agreement between Havana and Moscow, aimed at easing Cubas fuel supply shortage. According to Cuban authorities, this crude oil shipment strengthens the strategic relationship between Cuba and Russia and expresses international solidarity in the face of the US blockade.The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds rose 9 basis points to 3.960%.On April 6th, Saudi Arabia raised its crude oil prices for its main Asian markets by $17 per barrel, a record high premium over the Oman/Dubai average, as Irans near closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricted energy transport in the region and market volatility stemmed from uncertainty over the duration of the conflict. Saudi Aramco has set its official selling price for its Arab Light crude oil to Asia in May at a premium of $19.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $17 per barrel from the previous month.Local officials say 41 miners are trapped after Ukraine launched an attack on the Russian-controlled Luhansk region.A Bank of Japan official said the report was primarily based on interviews with companies conducted up to late March.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

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The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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