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1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.74 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575.32 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.16% to 21,840.95 points. Boeing rose more than 4%, and Caterpillar rose more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones gains. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 1.13%, with Google rising more than 3% and Tesla rising more than 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.31%, with Zai Lab rising more than 8% and Hesai Technology rising more than 7%. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed higher. The German DAX rose 2.73% to 23,298.89 points, the French CAC40 rose 2.1% to 7,981.27 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.85% to 10,364.79 points. The rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted European stock markets and led to a decline in oil prices, alleviating inflationary pressures and energy cost concerns. This provided room for the European Central Bank to adjust its monetary policy and enhanced the attractiveness of risk assets. 3. Most US Treasury yields rose: the 2-year yield rose 1.01 basis points to 3.803%, the 3-year yield rose 1.73 basis points to 3.830%, the 5-year yield rose 1.22 basis points to 3.953%, the 10-year yield rose 0.20 basis points to 4.319%, and the 30-year yield fell 1.33 basis points to 4.899%. 4. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 2.44% at $98.91 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 3.59% to $100.24 per barrel. First, market expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire and the withdrawal of US troops from Iran have increased, significantly easing concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which had previously supported oil price increases. Second, US crude oil inventories rose far more than expected last week, reaching near-record highs, further pressuring oil prices due to expectations of ample supply. Third, the US plan to release strategic petroleum reserves also put downward pressure on oil prices. 5. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.27% to $4784.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 0.38% to $75.20 per ounce. Crude oil prices retreated from their highs, easing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day to around 99.4, making dollar-denominated precious metals more attractive to holders of non-US currencies. 6. London base metals rose across the board. LME lead rose 1.89% to $1,939.0/ton, LME zinc rose 1.77% to $3,283.5/ton, LME aluminum rose 1.75% to $3,527.5/ton, LME tin rose 1.50% to $47,450.0/ton, LME copper rose 1.11% to $12,472.5/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.02% to $17,285.0/ton.Japan Meteorological Agency: Following the earthquake near Indonesia, there may be slight sea level changes along the Japanese coast, but no tsunami is expected.The U.S. tsunami warning system warned that following the earthquake, some coastal areas of Indonesia may experience tsunami waves 0.3 to 1 meter above the tide level.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 7.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Maluku Strait of Indonesia at 06:48 on April 2, with a focal depth of 30 kilometers.The U.S. tsunami warning system warns that tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake may occur along the coasts of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia within 1,000 kilometers of the epicenter.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.