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On August 12th, Fan Gang, Vice President of the China Society for Economic System Reform and Director of the National Economic Research Institute, delivered an economic speech at the 2026 Boao Real Estate Forum. Fan Gang stated that the Chinese economy is undergoing a structural adjustment more in line with market economy principles, and the real estate market has seen relatively rapid price clearing, with the bottoming process potentially faster than Japans in the past. From the demand side, Chinas long-standing structural problem of "emphasizing supply over demand" is being addressed. Fan Gang pointed out that the current "15th Five-Year Plan" has regarded market demand as the scarcest resource, and macroeconomics is essentially demand-driven. Consumption concepts are also undergoing positive changes, with the younger generation of tech elites beginning to focus on housing quality, and luxury homes in major cities becoming the main sales driver, marking the beginning of a new economic growth logic. "The Chinese economy is in a new stage of development that is more market-oriented and more in line with market principles," Fan Gang noted.August 12 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Shanwei Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire exercises will be conducted in parts of the South China Sea from 5:00 to 18:00 on August 12, and entry is prohibited.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight gold market: London spot gold -0.50%, SHFE gold -0.28%. Gold prices declined slightly as the market focused on tonights US CPI data. Combined with the decline in gasoline prices in July and cooling housing inflation, July inflation data is likely to show a month-on-month decrease. The current market expectation is a 3.5% year-on-year increase in July CPI and a 2.5% year-on-year increase in core CPI. If the inflation data is lower than expected, concerns about interest rate hikes may cool again, potentially increasing gold price volatility. The data itself is full of uncertainty and speculative trading, and gold prices are treated cautiously before the data release. Investors are paying attention to the performance of gold prices in the upper range. 2. Geopolitical news: According to Wall Street News, an advisor to Irans Supreme Leader stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until Irans conditions are met; US officials stated that the US military fired on a ship attempting to break through the US blockade of Iranian ports; although Pakistan released optimistic signals on Tuesday that the US and Iran were close to reaching some kind of agreement, the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still faces significant obstacles.On August 12th, it was learned from the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission that, with the approval of the provincial government, the commission recently issued the "List of Key Investment Areas for Henan Provincial Government Investment Funds," clarifying the key investment directions of government investment funds and covering 78 sub-sectors across four major sectors: emerging pillar industries, future industries, traditional advantageous industries, and modern service industries. Among these, future industries include six areas: artificial intelligence and embody intelligence, hydrogen energy, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, next-generation information networks, and brain-like intelligence and brain-computer interfaces. The focus is on cutting-edge areas such as humanoid robots, general-purpose large-scale models, hydrogen energy full-chain technology, bio-breeding, quantum computing, and 6G mobile communication.August 12th - On August 11th, heavy rain or torrential rain occurred in central and eastern Henan Province, with localized extremely heavy rain in Pingdingshan and Luoyang. According to meteorological forecasts, from August 12th to 15th, heavy rain or torrential rain is expected in central and western parts of the Huanghuai region and southern parts of North China, with some areas in central and western Henan experiencing extremely heavy rain. In accordance with the "National Flood and Drought Relief Emergency Plan" and relevant regulations, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management decided to raise the flood control emergency response for Henan Province from Level IV to Level III at 9:00 AM on August 12th.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.