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On August 4th, Liu Sanjiang, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration, led a delegation to Laos from July 31st to August 2nd. The delegation held special exchanges with the Lao Ministry of Public Security on combating cross-border crimes such as tobacco counterfeiting and smuggling, and deepening law enforcement cooperation. Both sides agreed to conduct more targeted joint operations against the illicit tobacco trade chain in the future, relying on bilateral cooperation and the Lancang-Mekong law enforcement and security cooperation framework; strengthen mutual learning of Chinas experience in protecting cigarette trademark intellectual property rights and law enforcement; and jointly maintain the normal order of the tobacco markets in both countries and protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. Liu Sanjiang stated that the focus was on the prominent issues of cross-border illicit trade in tobacco monopoly products. The Chinese side thanked Laos for its strong cooperation in the crackdown on cigarette counterfeiting and smuggling, and proposed to promote the establishment of an intelligence information exchange mechanism for tobacco-related cases, and to continuously strengthen cooperation in joint border investigations and the tracing and crackdown on illicit tobacco.U.S. Redbook retail sales annualized for the week ending August 1 were 8.7%, compared to 8.3% previously.August 4th - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June as imports declined for the first time since the beginning of the year, with the decline affecting multiple sectors. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services fell 5.6% in June from the previous month to $73.3 billion. Imports fell 1.8%, while exports fell 0.9%. Trade data shows that net exports continued to drag down economic growth this quarter. U.S. trade data has fluctuated significantly in recent months due to factors such as constantly changing tariff policies, supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East war, and large-scale corporate investment in artificial intelligence. Although the U.S. Supreme Court rejected many import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the first quarter, the government is still seeking other ways to impose tariffs on imported goods. From 2025 to the beginning of this year, imports of computers, peripherals, and related components increased significantly as companies actively invested in artificial intelligence. However, the latest trade report shows that imports of computers and semiconductors slowed in June. Imports of broader capital goods categories, including related equipment, also declined for the first time since September of last year.Federal Reserves Paulson: He hopes to weigh the pros and cons of the FOMC meeting six times a year versus eight times a year.Federal Reserves Paulson: The economy is strong, but inflation is too high.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

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The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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