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Japans core CPI annual rate in September was 2.9%, in line with expectations of 2.90% and the previous value of 2.70%.1. All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Nasdaq up 0.89%. Honeywell International rose over 6%, and 3M Company rose over 2%, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 0.7%, with Tesla up over 2% and Amazon up over 1%. Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with Tiger Brokers up nearly 6% and Hesai Technology up nearly 4%. 2. The three major European stock indices closed slightly higher, with Germanys DAX up 0.23%, Frances CAC 40 up 0.23%, and the UKs FTSE 100 up 0.67%, hitting a record high. European stocks were driven by strong performance in energy stocks, as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants pushed up oil prices, leading to gains for stocks like Shell. The UKs FTSE 100 hit a record high, benefiting from growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a rebound in bank stocks. 3. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.82 basis points to 3.489%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.84 basis points to 3.497%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 5.90 basis points to 3.605%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 4.90 basis points to 4.578%. 4. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.91% to $4,143.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.03% to $48.65 per ounce. 5. The main U.S. oil contract closed up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel, while the main Brent crude oil contract rose 5.38% to $65.96 per barrel. 6. Most of the base metals in London rose, with LME aluminum futures up 2.07% to $2,865.00/ton, LME copper futures up 1.44% to $10,817.00/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.13% to $15,335.00/ton, LME lead futures up 1.08% to $2,012.00/ton, LME tin futures up 1.02% to $35,725.00/ton and LME zinc futures down 0.21% to $3,022.50/ton.On October 24th, German Chancellor Angela Merz expressed optimism that the United States would grant an exemption to the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. The chancellor added that it was unclear whether the German subsidiary "needed" an exemption, as sanctions require Rosneft to own at least 50% of the business. "It currently owns exactly 50% of the subsidiary," he said. There are concerns that Rosnefts German subsidiary could be cut off from business by major clients if it does not receive a waiver from US sanctions. Oil traders, banks, and oil companies have already threatened to terminate their partnerships with the company.Japans September core CPI annual rate will be released in ten minutes.On October 24th, UK consumer confidence recorded a reading of -17, climbing to its highest level since August 2024, driven primarily by consumers taking advantage of promotions from Amazon and other major retailers. Neil Bellamy, consumer director at GfK, said: "This rise was partly driven by promotions from major retailers. After years of high inflation, savvy consumers have adjusted their purchasing strategies to maximize their money. The rebound in overall confidence masked growing anxiety about personal finances. While households assessment of the overall economic situation improved, their outlook for their own finances over the coming year deteriorated." Analyst Eamonn Sheridan said the report undermined optimism about a strong recovery in the retail sector and could continue to put pressure on the pound as it reinforces the view that households are preparing for financial tightening, which could curb consumption even during the upcoming crucial Black Friday shopping season.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

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The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.