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July 19 – U.S. Central Command announced that it completed another round of strikes against Iran at 11:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) on July 18, under the direction of the Commander-in-Chief. In the eighth consecutive night of airstrikes, Central Command forces successfully targeted Iranian military coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, naval combat capabilities, and missile and drone storage sites, in an effort to continue weakening Irans military capabilities. The U.S. military also targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces, following their July 17 attack on U.S. service members in Jordan. Currently, more than 50,000 U.S. military personnel, both men and women, are deployed in the Middle East, maintaining a high level of vigilance, focus, lethality, and readiness.According to the New York Post: US President Trump stated that the US strikes prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He added that if Iran is not stopped, the region could descend into a wider conflict.July 19 – According to Irans Mehr News Agency, the Iranian militarys public relations department stated that, in response to repeated enemy aggression and attacks on bridges, infrastructure, and demilitarized zones, hours earlier, during the sixteenth phase of Operation Lightning, the Iranian military launched a large-scale drone strike against a US terrorist army ammunition depot at Camp Adir in Kuwait, as well as Patriot radar and air defense radar used by the invading forces at the Ali Salim base in Kuwait. Camp Adir is a key US military base, located 104 kilometers from the Iranian border, and serves as a crucial support and reorganization center for the US military. Disrupting the bases operations will significantly impact US support operations in the region.According to the Iranian news agency IRNA: A magnitude 5 earthquake with a depth of 12 kilometers struck the city of Sarand in Khuzestan province, Iran, a few minutes ago, according to a report from the Earthquake Center of the University of Tehran.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.6-magnitude earthquake in central Peru.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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