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According to iPaper: British Prime Minister Burnham may deliver another Kings Speech to outline his governments new priorities.On August 3rd, the dollar continued its decline on Monday as joint intervention by the US and Japan in the currency market supported the yen. However, the root cause of the dollars recent weakness can be traced back to last weeks Federal Reserve meeting. At that time, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged, raising questions about the new Chairman Warshs ability to combat inflation. ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said, "It all started after the Fed meeting, when the market held a large number of long dollar positions. Positioning indicators show that short-term investors are generally heavily long on the dollar." Some strategists pointed out that to avoid further pressure on the dollar, the US Treasury might use euros instead of dollars to fund its yen purchases. Pesole said many traders are considering whether to shift to building long-term short dollar positions. However, he believes that Japans intervention in the currency market is only a temporary measure, and the Feds policy will ultimately determine the dollars trajectory. Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar pointed out that if oil prices do not fall significantly, the Feds inaction on inflation will undermine Warshs credibility. Furthermore, he said, "Besides intervention, I think the fundamentals remain unfavorable to the yen and favorable to the dollar. The pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates will continue to increase."On August 3rd, Xiabuxiabu Group (00520.HK) released its interim results forecast for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The announcement shows that the Group expects to achieve operating revenue of approximately RMB 1.5 billion in the first half of the year, a decrease of approximately 23% compared to the same period in 2025. The Group expects a net loss of RMB 29 million to RMB 39 million, compared to a net loss of RMB 81 million in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year narrowing of losses by 51% to 64%. The results forecast also shows that the Groups asset impairment losses for closed and long-term loss-making stores decreased by approximately 30% compared to the same period in 2025.Kazakhstan plans to sell up to $300 million in foreign exchange from its oil fund in August.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We must do more to strengthen border control, including close monitoring and physical barriers.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.