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Futures News, April 30th: Economies.com analysts latest view: Brent crude oil futures surged in recent intraday trading, breaking through the key resistance level of $109.00, which had previously been our price target. This rally reflects a strong short-term bullish trend, with prices continuing to move along the upward trend line, providing support for current momentum. The bullish bias is further consolidated as prices remain above the 50-day EMA, showing continued dynamic support. However, after prices entered overbought territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown initial signs of a bearish crossover, which could limit further upside potential.On April 30, Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC), presided over the closing meeting of the 22nd session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee. Zhao Leji stated that the session reviewed eight draft laws, passing two of them. The newly formulated Social Assistance Law, adhering to the principles of ensuring basic needs, providing a safety net, addressing emergencies, and ensuring sustainability, is of great significance for strengthening the social safety net, promoting social equity, and maintaining social harmony and stability. The revised Prison Law improves the prison management system, further standardizes and guarantees the correct execution of penalties in prisons, and is conducive to promoting a higher level of peace and rule of law in China. The meeting conducted a second review of the draft Medical Security Law and the Law on the Protection and Quality Improvement of Cultivated Land, and conducted the first review of the draft revisions to the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, the Agricultural Law, the National Defense Mobilization Law, and the Water Law. Relevant departments should carefully study the relevant opinions and suggestions and revise and improve the drafts. Zhao Leji emphasized that members of the NPC Standing Committee and its special committees, as well as NPC officials, should perform their duties with high quality.Hungarian Central Bank Governor Varga: Hopes to avoid a recurrence of high inflation and high inflation expectations.Futures Market News, April 30th: Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures opened higher but then fluctuated. Canadian canola futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising 2.16%, following the upward trend in international crude oil futures. Rapeseed meal spot prices fell slightly. Canadian canola has not yet entered large-scale crushing, but ample supply is expected in the longer term, and downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand from aquaculture.Energy Intelligence Group reporter Amona Barker: One thing I know about OPEC is that the organization is constantly evolving. Countries join, and other countries leave, but the organization still exists.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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