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June 17 – According to sources, European Council President António Costa has contacted the Kremlin in an attempt to push Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources indicate that Costas chief advisor has spoken twice with a senior Russian official close to Putin, aiming to pave the way for more substantive negotiations in the future. Last month, Costa stated, "We need to engage in dialogue with Russia at the appropriate time to address the security issues we both face." The three largest European economies – Germany, France, and the UK – have also discussed strategies for coordinating with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and encouraging Putins participation in peace talks. European officials believe that the current difficulties faced by Russian troops on the battlefield, Ukraines increased attacks on Russian territory, and the rising economic costs of the war have created an opportunity to bring Putin to the negotiating table. A senior European official stated that as the war enters a new phase, senior European officials are working to coordinate their positions and prepare for increased communication with the Kremlin in the future.June 17 - Iranian state television reported today (June 17) that three Iranian oil tankers carrying approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil have broken through the US maritime blockade and passed through the Strait of Hormuz, heading towards their destination.On June 17th, Bank of America analysts stated in a report that the Bank of England is unlikely to follow the European Central Bank in raising interest rates on Thursday, but this would not substantially damage market confidence in the pound. The market is currently concerned about a potential policy misstep by the ECB. Analysts said the "second-round effect" triggered by high energy prices will be closely scrutinized, which should support further rate hikes in the UK in the future. However, the market would welcome a more balanced stance from the Bank of England between high inflation risks and weak employment risks. If the price shock persists, the Bank of England might be seen as lagging behind, but this is not currently the case. Bank of America expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but raise rates in July and September.June 17th - It was learned today that the State Administration for Market Regulation has revised and released three national standards: "General Technical Requirements for Bicycles," "Bicycle Assembly Requirements," and "Technical Requirements for Bicycle Testing Equipment and Instruments." These standards systematically regulate the technical performance, assembly process, and testing equipment and instruments for bicycles, providing solid standard support for improving the quality and performance of bicycle products in my country and promoting the high-quality development of the industry.Fitch Ratings: The outlook for more emerging market sectors has deteriorated due to the war in Iran.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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