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On May 10th, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated at a political conference in Toronto on Saturday that Canada is willing to establish closer trade ties with the United States and Mexico in specific industries to boost the North American economy. He mentioned the "North American Fortress" initiative but did not specify any particular sectors. Carney indicated that if this approach fails, Canada will invest heavily in new markets and new products. The United States, Mexico, and Canada are scheduled to begin reviewing a trade agreement this year. Trump has already imposed tariffs on products such as automobiles and steel, disrupting the closely intertwined supply chains among the three countries. Carney had previously set a goal of doubling exports to countries outside the United States within ten years.The Bahraini Foreign Minister demanded that Iran cease its aggressive and provocative actions against Bahrain and other countries in the region, as well as its egregious interference in their internal affairs.Bahrains Foreign Minister: Bahrain condemns and strongly condemns Irans continued interference in its internal affairs and its actions that threaten the security and stability of the Gulf states.Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: The Aerospace Forces missiles and drones have locked onto the enemy, and we are awaiting the order to launch.On May 10th, local time, the final vote count for the 136th Local Council of England was released, completing the election results for the English Local Council, as well as the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments. In this election, both of Britains traditional two major parties, the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, suffered significant setbacks, while the Reform Party, the Green Party, and other parties saw a marked increase in strength, further highlighting the trend of "fragmentation" in British politics. Data shows that in the English Local Council elections, the Reform Party won 1453 seats, becoming one of the biggest winners; the Labour Party won 1063 seats; and the Conservative Party won 801 seats. Analysts believe that this British local election demonstrates that the traditional two-party (Labour and Conservative) dominance in Britain is being significantly challenged. British politics is further developing towards multi-party competition and political fragmentation.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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