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On March 28, German Chancellor Merz stated on March 27 that if "regime change" is the goal of the US-Israel military action against Iran, he does not believe that goal can be achieved. Merz expressed his hope for an early end to the conflict, but noted that the US and Israel are "deeper in the game." He questioned whether the US and Israel have a strategy to end the conflict, and if so, whether it can be successfully implemented. Merz said the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict are "very direct," and Germany is one of the sufferers. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, Germany could consider jointly organizing military escorts across the Strait of Hormuz with other parties, but this requires international authorization, approval from the German Bundestag, and a cabinet resolution. However, as long as the conflict continues, this is "not an option" for Germany.March 28th - Since 2026, passenger traffic at Shanghai ports has continued to climb. According to statistics from the Shanghai General Station of Immigration Inspection, as of 9:00 AM on March 28th, the cumulative number of inbound and outbound passengers inspected by Shanghai immigration authorities has exceeded 10 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The flow of people at Shanghai ports is showing a robust "two-way" trend, with approximately 5.055 million outbound passengers and approximately 4.945 million inbound passengers, representing year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively.On March 28, the National Bureau of Data Science and Technology (NBD) released its 2026 departmental budget on its official website. The NBD comprises one administrative unit at the bureau level, with six internal departments: General Affairs Department, Policy and Planning Department, Data Resources Department, Digital Economy Department, Digital Technology and Infrastructure Construction Department, and International Data Governance Cooperation Department. It also has one affiliated institution, the National Data Development Research Institute.According to AFP: Thailand and Iran have reached an agreement to allow Thai oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.March 28th - At a dialogue event held on the 27th themed "Making Friends Through Business, Connecting Shanghai Globally," it was learned that Shanghai is continuously improving its comprehensive overseas service system and accelerating its transformation into a "starting point" for enterprises going global. This is being achieved through initiatives such as launching a unified citywide service platform and establishing professional service alliances. Currently, private enterprises are playing an increasingly important role in the overseas expansion of Shanghai enterprises. Last year, private enterprises accounted for over 80% of the Chinese investment in all Shanghais outbound investment projects, and their share of the citys total foreign trade import and export volume also exceeded 40% for the first time.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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