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As of 8:30 PM Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures fell 4.21%, and US natural gas futures fell 1.63%.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane, said that if ordered to carry out escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz, a range of options will be considered.Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kane, stated that most Iranian surface-to-air missiles do not pose a threat.German Chancellor Merz: Expresses concern over the lack of a joint plan to end the war in Iraq.March 10 - U.S. stocks stalled their rally as investor confidence waned in a potential end to the Iran conflict. S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3%. Major indexes had briefly turned positive late Monday after Trump hinted that the war with Iran might be nearing its end. While Trump believes the conflict wont end this week, he insists military action is progressing faster than expected. "In some ways, this news comes at a good time, given the market downturn," said Tom Essaye of Sevens Report. He added that there are still reasons to doubt the viability of the TACO trade. "Trumps conciliatory remarks were welcomed by the market, but if yesterdays TACO rebound is to signify the end of this downturn, unilateral statements alone are not enough," said Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB. She added that Trumps comments "may not be enough to permanently eliminate the risk premium already priced into recent oil prices, especially with the Strait of Hormuz still closed," and she expects oil prices to remain volatile as the conflict continues.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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