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Futures News, April 29th - According to foreign media reports, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low, mainly due to a stronger US dollar, continued Middle East conflict boosting oil prices, and raising concerns about inflation and global economic growth. With the Iraq War now in its ninth week and no sign of a peaceful resolution in sight, the industrial metals sector continues to be affected by concerns about economic growth and demand stemming from the Middle East crisis. ING strategists stated that the conflicting parties appear to remain in a stalemate, and the supply of oil and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted. This uncertainty puts pressure on the demand outlook for copper, which is dependent on economic growth. The market is focused on comments from central bank policymakers regarding inflationary pressures, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain interest rates unchanged.According to foreign media reports on April 29th, American drivers are feeling an increasingly heavy "pain of refueling." Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Tuesday (28th) shows that the average price of regular gasoline across the United States has risen to its highest level in nearly four years. Since the US-Israel attacks on Iran at the end of February, gasoline prices have risen by more than 40%. Data shows that the average price of gasoline across the US on Tuesday was close to $4.18 per gallon, up 11 cents so far this month; and up $1.19 per gallon since the end of February. More worryingly, there is still room for further price increases—last week, Brent crude futures rose by about 16% and US WTI crude rose by nearly 13% as diplomatic efforts to end the war with Iran stalled and supply concerns intensified. GasBuddy analysts pointed out that refinery maintenance and scheduled upkeep in the Great Lakes region will keep consumers in the region facing persistently high gasoline prices.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has lowered its 2026 UK economic growth forecast from 1.4% to 0.9% based on a moderate scenario.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts that, under a moderate scenario, the Bank of Englands interest rate will be raised to 4%.The UKs National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts that the UK economy will grow by only 0.5% under an "unfavorable" Middle East scenario.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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