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U.S. 10-year Treasury futures climbed 21 ticks, while 30-year Treasury futures rose 1 big tick.European and American stock index futures rose, with S&P 500 futures extending gains to 0.95% and Nasdaq futures up 1.43%; Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.1% and German DAX 30 futures rose 1.1%.On May 25th, according to statistics from the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge Border Inspection Station of the Zhuhai Border Inspection General Station, since the implementation of the "Macau Vehicles Going North" and "Hong Kong Vehicles Going North" policies in 2023, as of 11:50 AM on May 25th this year, the total number of Hong Kong and Macau single-license plate vehicles entering and exiting through the Zhuhai Port of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge has officially exceeded 10 million. The flow of people, goods, and capital has accelerated, and driving north has become a mainstream mode of transportation for Hong Kong and Macau residents to integrate into the overall development of the country and share the policy dividends of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area. Currently, the number of drivers who have completed the border inspection registration for "Macau Vehicles Going North" and "Hong Kong Vehicles Going North" exceeds 228,000, and the number of registered vehicles exceeds 192,000.May 25th, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures have continued to decline in recent intraday trading, constrained by negative pressure from prices consistently trading below the EMA50 moving average. Bearish momentum has further strengthened, causing prices to break below a major short-term bullish trendline. This negative technical signal increases the likelihood of further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite the price easing from its previous oversold condition, continues to release negative signals, providing more technical space for the market to deepen its decline in the short term, with bearish momentum still dominating.May 25th, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: Brent crude oil futures fell, mainly due to the previous break below a key short-term uptrend line. Current prices remain under pressure below the 50-day EMA, limiting any potential for a sustained short-term rebound. Simultaneously, prices have also broken below the $99.00 support level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), after escaping oversold territory, is releasing negative signals, further increasing downward pressure in the current market structure.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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