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Indonesian President: We are a major exporter of goods, but our export revenue accounts for a very low percentage of our GDP.On May 20th, inflation and fiscal concerns pushed the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds to a record high, prompting Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) to believe an investment opportunity exists. PIMCOs Chief Investment Officer, Seidner, stated that Japans yield curve is "too steep" compared to other developed markets, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. PIMCO is long on 30-year Japanese government bonds and short on 10-year bonds, betting on a narrowing spread between the two. "The current risk premium is attractive both absolutely and relatively," Seidner said. Japans yield curve is the steepest among developed markets, reflecting market concerns about slow central bank interest rate hikes and long-term fiscal spending. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis call for a supplementary budget has exacerbated these concerns. Data shows that the spread between 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds is approximately 130 basis points, lower than the 171 basis points in September, but still significantly higher than the 52 basis points in the US and 67 basis points in the UK. Seidner stated that the spread has begun to narrow, "it has normalized to some extent, but it is still one of the steepest curves globally, so we continue to hold."On May 20, President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two heads of state unanimously agreed to extend the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia. Xi Jinping pointed out that 25 years ago, China and Russia signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, establishing in legal form the institutional foundation for long-term good-neighborliness, friendship, and comprehensive strategic cooperation, thus enabling China-Russia relations to achieve leapfrog development. Currently, the international landscape has undergone significant changes, and the world faces the danger of regressing to the law of the jungle. Against this backdrop, the advanced nature, scientific basis, and practical value of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia are becoming increasingly prominent. China supports the extension of the Treaty and will work with Russia to uphold its spirit and firmly advance the "back-to-back" strategic cooperation between China and Russia.Sources indicate that Japan may launch new Japanese government bonds to attract retail investors.On May 20th, Futures News reported that as of May 19th, the average spot price of #1 lead was 16,275 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and down 450 yuan/ton year-on-year, a decrease of 2.69%. The recent downward trend in lead prices is mainly due to the following factors: 1. On the demand side, it is still the off-season for consumption, with end-user demand remaining weak. Large downstream enterprises are mainly buying at low prices to meet immediate needs, while the activity of small and medium-sized enterprises in purchasing has declined. 2. From a macro perspective, the change of leadership at the Federal Reserve has increased market concerns about interest rate hikes, leading to a generally cautious market sentiment and a strong desire for safe-haven assets, resulting in a general pullback in non-ferrous metals. However, on the raw material side, the supply of lead concentrate and waste batteries remains relatively tight, providing some support on the cost side. Looking ahead, there are few expectations for improved demand, the market lacks confidence, and there are no significant positive factors to boost prices. Lead prices are expected to remain weak.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

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The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.