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On April 19, US President Donald Trump said in an interview with the New York Post that he would "very likely" travel to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, if the US and Iran could reach an agreement. When asked by a reporter whether he would go to Islamabad, Trump initially said, "I think it might be a little later. Well have to see how things go tomorrow." When pressed further, Trump stated that he would not make a decision before negotiations made progress, but "it will likely be later."April 19th - According to CNN, U.S. Energy Secretary Frank Wright stated in an interview on Sunday that Americans may have to wait until next year to escape gasoline prices exceeding $3 per gallon. Wright said that while the ongoing war with Iran has caused gasoline prices to soar, he is unsure when prices will fall below $3 again. "It could be later this year, or it could be next year," Wright said. "But prices have likely peaked and will start to decline, especially if the conflict is resolved." He also stated that ending the 47-year conflict and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will certainly bring short-term disruption. However, he believes the U.S. has handled the situation exceptionally well. The U.S. is currently experiencing the largest energy flow disruption in history, and gasoline prices peaked a week ago, about $1 lower than the peak during the Biden administration.On April 19th, local time, the head of the security department in Gombad Kavus, Iran, stated that a fire broke out at a factory in the city around 2 PM local time. It is understood that the black smoke billowing from the scene was caused by the burning of materials inside the factory. The factory is located far from the city center and oil and gas facilities, and relevant departments have preliminarily determined that the fire does not pose a direct threat to the surrounding area. The report stated that the cause of the fire is still under investigation, and there are no reports of casualties.According to Al Jazeera: According to data cited by US media, at least 13 oil tankers turned back to the Persian Gulf on April 18.On April 19th, it was learned from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) that the NDRC, together with relevant departments, recently issued the second batch of "major and key" construction projects for 2026, allocating a total of 216.8 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support 336 major projects. These projects cover key areas such as artificial intelligence, urban underground pipeline construction and renovation, transportation infrastructure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, high-standard farmland, upgrading of higher education, and the "Three-North" project (Northeast, North, and Northwest China). Adding to the previously allocated 389.7 billion yuan, the total allocation for "major and key" construction projects this year reaches 606.5 billion yuan, accounting for 76% of the total 800 billion yuan for the year, a significantly faster pace than last year.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.