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On January 30th, at a press conference held by the Ministry of Finance, Zheng Yong, Deputy Director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance, introduced that the national general public budget revenue in 2025 will be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared with 2024. Among them, tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady upward trend throughout the year, reflecting the continued steady and progressive development of my countrys economy; non-tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly due to the increased base caused by the one-time special revenue turned over by central units in 2024.On January 30th, Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist and Senior Currency Strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the US dollar did indeed appear to rise on this news, which she believes is because the market generally perceives Warsh to be slightly less dovish than another candidate, Hassett. Therefore, todays market fluctuations are merely minor fluctuations based on this, and Warsh may be better positioned to uphold the Feds independence than some other candidates. "We havent heard much from him yet, but he has made some comments that essentially express a desire for strict adherence to the Feds responsibility to control inflation. He has also served as a Fed governor and does not support quantitative easing, so this may again indicate that he is slightly more hawkish than some other potential candidates."Germanys export price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in December, compared with 0.2% in the previous month.Germanys export price index rose 0% year-on-year in December, compared with 0.3% in the previous month.Germanys import price index fell 2.3% year-on-year in December, compared with a forecast of -2.60% and a previous reading of -1.90%.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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