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On January 16th, Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the share price of Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. Analysts at the bank stated that in the most optimistic scenario, as chipmakers increase spending to meet soaring demand from artificial intelligence, the stock could rise by 70%, potentially reaching €2,000. Morgan Stanleys bullish outlook on ASML is further fueled by TSMCs earnings report demonstrating that the AI spending boom has not slowed. ASMLs share price has already risen 25% year-to-date by 2026, and its market capitalization surpassed $500 billion this week, making it the third European company to reach this milestone.On January 16th, Barclays Bank predicted that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold its interest rates steady next week and adhere to its existing forward guidance without making significant adjustments. Barclays noted that given the extremely low real interest rates, the BOJ should "continue to reiterate its willingness to raise interest rates further, based on improvements in economic activity and prices." Furthermore, they pointed out that the sell-off of the yen will also be a factor in the central banks decision.On January 16, the Sixth China-ASEAN Digital Ministerial Meeting adopted the "China-ASEAN Digital Cooperation Plan 2026," which specifies the establishment of the China-ASEAN Digital Academy and the China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Center within the year, and the commencement of exchanges and cooperation in areas such as digital and information and communication infrastructure, open source, and digital security. The meeting also adopted the "China-ASEAN Action Plan for Building a Sustainable and Inclusive Digital Ecosystem (2026-2030)," outlining strengthened cooperation between the two sides over the next five years in policy exchanges and strategic alignment, digital infrastructure construction, and the innovative application of emerging digital technologies.January 16th - Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister stated that despite ongoing challenges to the UK economy, Thursdays unexpectedly positive November economic growth data provided a positive signal for the pound. The data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November. While concerns about fiscal austerity in the November budget remain, the economy still recorded robust growth. Therefore, fears of a recession and further interest rate cuts may be premature. Labor market and inflation data will be released next week, with the latter being particularly crucial for the pounds performance in the coming weeks.Data shows that Russias seaborne petroleum product exports in December increased by 17% compared to November.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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