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February 8th - Sources in the Indian refining and trading sectors indicate that Indian refiners are avoiding purchasing Russian oil for April delivery and are expected to stay away from Russian oil for an extended period. This move could help India reach a trade agreement with the United States. The US and India have taken a step towards a trade agreement, announcing a framework aimed at finalizing negotiations by March. A trader who has liaised with Indian refiners stated that Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Oil Corporation, and Reliance Industries are currently not accepting offers from traders for Russian oil with loading dates in March and April.February 8th - Currently, the red envelope codes from Alibabas Qianwen app and Tencents Yuanbao can be copied within WeChat. Previously, on the afternoon of February 6th, WeChat "blocked" Qianwen activity codes; some users who shared Qianwen red envelope codes to WeChat found that even after selecting the code, the WeChat page did not display a copy button. Yuanbao codes were also temporarily blocked.February 8th - "Currently, new funds deposited in three-year fixed deposits can enjoy an interest rate of 1.95%, which just came into effect a few days ago, an increase of about 10 basis points compared to before," a wealth management manager at a Ningbo Bank branch in Beijing told reporters. Recently, reporters visited and contacted several banks and learned that, with the Spring Festival approaching, many banks are launching special deposit and large-denomination certificate of deposit products, and are temporarily raising deposit interest rates.February 8th - According to China Railway Construction Corporation, Chinas "undersea space station" has been successfully applied. On the morning of February 6th, the worlds longest undersea high-speed railway tunnel made new progress. After 22 days of operation, Chinas first domestically developed shield tunneling machine with saturated pressure entry, the "Deep-Sea Space Station," successfully completed its debut on the Ningbo side of the Jintang Undersea Tunnel of the Ningbo-Zhoushan Railway, constructed by China Railway 14th Bureau Group. It successfully carried out shield tunneling operations at a depth of 75 meters in a high-pressure environment, replacing 46 cutterheads. This marks the successful application of my countrys independently developed shield tunneling saturated pressure entry technology, breaking through the 60-meter safe operating depth limit and continuing to explore depths up to 75 meters.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.3 earthquake struck Beichuan County, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province at 11:01 AM on February 8th, with a focal depth of 14 kilometers.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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