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Real-time News
1. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported selling 244,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 2. Market news: A UAE aluminum producer will spend $400 million to resume production after being attacked by Iran. 3. Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its crude oil production increased by more than 1 million barrels per day last month, driven by the resumption of supplies from Persian Gulf oil-producing countries during the brief ceasefire in the Iran-Iraq War. According to the latest OPEC monthly report, Saudi Arabia stated that its crude oil production in July was 8.2 million barrels per day, up from 7.1 million barrels per day in June. 4. The U.S. July unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded 3.4%, the smallest increase since March, in line with market expectations. 5. OPEC monthly report: OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day; and raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.16 million barrels per day (previously 1.94 million barrels per day). 6. OPEC Monthly Report: OPEC+ crude oil production (including former member UAE) averaged 37.66 million barrels per day in July 2026, an increase of approximately 1.42 million barrels per day compared to June, mainly due to increased production from Gulf oil-producing countries. 7. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell for the third consecutive trading day, due to lower rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels, while Supramax rates rebounded slightly. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell 107 points, or 3.5%, to 2939 points. 8. The EIA report showed that U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 627,000 barrels per day to 3.058 million barrels per day in the week ending August 7. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, increased by 17.423 million barrels to 424 million barrels, an increase of 4.28%. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 6.115 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels, a drop of 2.01%. 9. U.S. President Trump recently tweeted: "The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. I believe we will continue to maintain control! Our naval blockade is what everyone calls the Iron Wall, and Iran is powerless against it." 10. Russias crude oil production in July was nearly 1 million barrels per day lower than its OPEC+ quota due to near-daily attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine.On August 12th, JPMorgan Asset Managements chief global strategist stated that the Federal Reserve should maintain interest rates and expects inflation to gradually decline as increasing evidence suggests a persistent wage-price spiral will not form. David Kelly, speaking after the release of the July Consumer Price Index, said, "The Fed should absolutely hold off, and I actually think they will." The report showed that core inflation in the US remained moderate in July, and US Treasury bonds continued their upward trend after the news was released. Kelly pointed out that three forces are working together to significantly cool inflation: tariff costs will decline year-on-year; oil prices will fall as markets become optimistic that the Iran war will end; and wage growth continues to lag behind inflation. He added that the last point weakens the momentum needed for price pressures to form a self-reinforcing cycle, meaning the Fed doesnt need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. Kelly noted that financial markets are currently highly leveraged, and even a small rate hike could trigger asset repricing.On August 12, the Trump administration announced a new initiative to accelerate the transport of goods considered crucial to the development of artificial intelligence between the United States and its closest trading partners. The U.S. State Department said Wednesday it will establish a pilot platform in Panama as part of the U.S.-led Silicon Peace Initiative to expedite the trade of key AI products. The initiative aims to strengthen supply chain cooperation among allies. The State Department stated that it will allocate up to $50 million in foreign aid to develop and deploy the platform, which will leverage AI technology to accelerate logistics processes. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg said in an email, “This project is expected to accelerate logistics and compliance processes. The project focuses on helping Panama and other participating economies track and expedite the transport of high-value goods from trusted suppliers, including AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and critical minerals, covering the entire AI supply chain.”EIA report: U.S. crude oil imports from Canada rose to their highest level since March 2025 in the latest week.August 12th - Russias crude oil production in July was nearly 1 million barrels per day lower than its OPEC+ quota, due to near-daily attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine. According to OPECs monthly report, Russias average daily crude oil production last month was 8.887 million barrels. While this level is only 6,000 barrels per day lower than the revised average production in June, Julys average daily production was significantly below Russias monthly target of 9.824 million barrels under the agreement with its allies. This data comes as the Russian oil industry faces continued attacks from Ukraine. Last month, Kyiv shifted its targets from refineries to tankers, threatening Russian crude oil processing and exports, at a time when global energy markets were already under pressure due to the Middle East conflict.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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