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On July 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the fourth major government reshuffle since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, unexpectedly dismissing Defense Minister Mikhailov Fedorov. Fedorov, considered a popular figure in the Ukrainian government and a key advocate for Ukraines drone warfare program, confirmed his dismissal on Wednesday via social media. He listed several achievements of his team during his six-month tenure, including cutting off Russian military access to the Starlink system, further isolating Crimea, and "pushing an unpopular but extremely important military reform." This personnel change sparked calls for a peaceful protest in Kyiv on Thursday morning. This reshuffle comes shortly after the Ukrainian parliament approved the resignation of Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, who left office after only one year in office.July 16 – The 2026 China (Guangdong)-ASEAN Trade Promotion and Supply Chain Cooperation Mechanism Matching and Exchange Conference, jointly hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Peoples Government and the China-ASEAN Centre, was held in Guangzhou today. Zhang Lizhong, Secretary-General of the China-ASEAN Centre, stated that China and ASEAN are good neighbors, good friends, and good partners sharing a common destiny. Over the 35 years since the establishment of dialogue relations, the two sides have become one of the most dynamic and fruitful cooperation models in the Asia-Pacific region and even globally. In the future, the China-ASEAN Centre will continue to deepen cooperation with Guangdong in various fields, fully leveraging Guangdongs advantages in manufacturing, technological innovation, and opening up to the outside world, and making new contributions to the development of the China-ASEAN comprehensive strategic partnership.Market news: Nvidia says its initiative has received support from Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.On July 16th, Bank of England Deputy Governor Brident downplayed the risk of soaring inflation spreading to wages and business pricing behavior, stating there was little reason to raise interest rates. Brident said that since the outbreak of the Middle East wars, rising borrowing costs for businesses and households, coupled with sluggish economic performance, meant the Bank of England might not need to take action to curb price pressures. Brident is one of the more dovish members of the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee, having supported keeping interest rates at 3.75% in the last three meetings. Brident stated that unless the war factor influences the economy, she is confident inflation will now fall back to the 2% target level. However, she emphasized that if there are signs of a feedback loop of rising prices creating a sustained inflationary cycle, she would support raising interest rates. She also stated that the cybersecurity risks exposed by recent advancements in artificial intelligence models have become a key focus for the Bank of England.On July 16th, Futures News reported that heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Bavi damaged wheat stored by some traders, leading to frequent issues such as overheating, off-odors, and mold. This increased selling pressure among grain holders, accelerating the decline in wheat prices. Simultaneously, some market participants, optimistic about the future market, raised wheat prices and actively increased their reserves despite reduced supply, causing a slight rebound in local wheat prices. As of July 15th, the purchase prices of new wheat by flour mills, feed mills, and grain depots in major producing areas remained stable with slight fluctuations, while some companies slightly lowered their purchase prices for old wheat compared to the previous week. The continued low price of new wheat has increased the pressure on grain holders to incur losses, leading to growing calls for the activation of the minimum purchase price program for wheat. Due to rainy weather during the harvest season, the inventory of qualified new wheat this year is relatively small, making it difficult for most grain to enter the governments minimum purchase price program. Therefore, government purchases are unlikely to drive a sustained and significant increase in wheat prices, and the market should not be overly optimistic. Currently, the total amount of new wheat purchased by enterprises included in the national statistics has exceeded 60 million tons, ensuring sufficient supply of grain in the market. The short-term wheat market is expected to fluctuate weakly. If government-supported procurement is initiated, the probability of wheat prices stabilizing will significantly increase. However, the market lacks upward momentum, making a substantial rebound unlikely.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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