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February 11th - Market consensus predicts that U.S. nonfarm payrolls will increase by 70,000 in January, up from 50,000 in December; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%; and wage inflation, measured by average hourly earnings year-over-year, is expected to slow to 3.6% from 3.8%. TD Securities analysts noted that they expect job growth to remain subdued in January, with approximately 45,000 new jobs added. They stated, "We expect 40,000 new jobs in the private sector and about 5,000 in the government sector. Private sector growth is primarily concentrated in healthcare and construction. We expect the unemployment rate to continue showing signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The labor market remains in a state of low layoffs, low hiring. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year."February 11th - Geek+, a global logistics robotics company, recently launched Gino 1, the worlds first general-purpose humanoid robot designed for warehousing scenarios. This product is specifically designed for the entire warehousing operation chain, possessing multi-task capabilities such as picking, moving boxes, packing, and inspection. It truly achieves "one robot covering mainstream manual operation scenarios within the warehouse," leading the warehousing industry to achieve a key leap from "mobile intelligence" to "operational intelligence."ECB Governing Council member Machrouf: Uncertainty means the ECB will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.On February 11th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that while a complete victory is not yet achieved, the Federal Reserves fight against inflation appears to be within reach. He pointed out that a more balanced labor market is helping to suppress inflation in the services sector; moreover, the inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to gradually subside in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the continued sluggishness of the US housing market will also help control inflationary pressures. Lin believes that even if the US economy maintains trend-based growth this year, or even slightly exceeds trend levels, inflation is expected to remain benign and manageable this year and next.1. Standard Chartered Bank: -10,000; Scotiabank: +000; Capital Economics: +30,000; Oxford Economics: +30,000; 2. Bank of America: +40,000; Moodys Analytics: +40,000; Goldman Sachs: +45,000; TD Securities: +45,000; 3. ABN AMRO: +50,000; Barclays: +50,000; Morgan Stanley: +55,000; Danske Bank: +60,000; 4. DekaBank: +60,000; RBC: +63,000; HSBC: +65,000; ANZ: +70,000; 5. Westpac: +70,000; JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Deutsche Bank: +75,000; Commerzbank: +80,000; 6. ING: +80,000; Societe Generale: +80,000; UniCredit: +80,000; Wells Fargo: +80,000; 7. Nomura: +85,000; Lloyds Banking Group: +85,000; Mizuho Securities: +90,000; UBS: +90,000; 8. Pansen Macro: +100,000; BNP Paribas: +105,000; Jefferies Group: +110,000; Citigroup: +135,000.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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