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On July 19th, according to Shanxi Release, the General Office of the Shanxi Provincial Peoples Government recently issued the "Shanxi Province Service Industry Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement Action Plan (2026-2030)". The Action Plan proposes that by 2028, producer services will extend towards specialization and the high end of the value chain, forming a number of replicable and scalable typical models of the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries; consumer services will develop in a high-quality, diversified, and convenient manner, cultivating a number of new digital and integrated service formats and scenarios. By 2030, the quality and efficiency of the service industry will significantly improve, service R&D investment and innovation achievements will grow rapidly, a number of leading enterprises in service industry sub-markets will be cultivated, a number of highly competitive service brands will be formed, high value-added service trade exports will continue to increase, and the added value of the provinces service industry will strive to exceed 1.8 trillion yuan, with a high-quality and efficient new service industry system basically formed.On July 19th, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko stated in an interview with Russian media on July 18th that Russia is closely monitoring the cooperation between Japanese drone manufacturers and Ukrainian drone developers. He asserted that Ukrainian drones are "killing Russian civilians," and that Japan is providing assistance in this endeavor. Russia views the cooperation between Japan and Ukraine in the drone field as an open act of hostility. Rudenko added that weapons posing a threat to Russia, as well as facilities producing these weapons in Ukraine, are targets for Russian military strikes. He concluded that Japan is "pushing Russian-Japanese relations further into the abyss."Dubai officials say the UAE’s non-oil trade grew by 13.1% to AED 1.937 trillion in the first half of 2026.July 19 - According to Iranian media reports on the 19th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone in Ahvaz, Iran.The Ukrainian military says Ukrainian troops hit two Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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