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According to the Financial Times, the US has restricted the timeframe for air defense operations to allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.September 12th - Large-scale volcanic earthquakes continue to increase at Tokachi-dake in Hokkaido, Japan. At 9:30 AM local time today (September 12th), the Sapporo Meteorological Observatory issued a crater warning, raising the eruption alert level from 2 to 3, and urging vigilance for large rock eruptions within approximately 3 kilometers of the crater. According to the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory, large-amplitude volcanic earthquakes at Tokachi-dake have been increasing since September 17th, and around 8:20 AM today, a series of the largest volcanic earthquakes observed were recorded. Since March of this year, there have been continuous crustal movements indicating expansion deep within the mountain; since April, volcanic gas emissions have also increased, indicating increasingly active volcanoes, with a small eruption occurring in July.On September 12th, the official Weibo account of "The Dark Side of the Moon" posted: Information circulating online regarding the founder and employees is completely fabricated and malicious rumor-mongering. We have immediately reported the matter to the police and will pursue legal action against those responsible for spreading the rumors. Please do not believe or spread rumors.September 12th - According to reports from British media outlets such as The Guardian, the UKs flight management system malfunctioned earlier this week due to a British military aircraft submitting "false" flight data. The system experienced a serious outage on the afternoon of September 8th, leading to the cancellation or delay of numerous flights at airports across the UK. The Guardian reported that the system was shut down for four hours that day, resulting in the cancellation of over 2,000 flights and affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. The report cited the Financial Times, stating that four sources familiar with the matter revealed that the malfunction was triggered by a flight plan submitted by a British military aircraft, which caused the flight management system to crash and remained unrepaired for several hours. The Guardian reported that a spokesperson for the UK Ministry of Defence stated regarding the reports, "We do not believe there is any indication of negligence on the part of the military. This matter is currently being investigated by the National Air Traffic Control (NAC), and we cannot comment further during the investigation."Russia stated that its military destroyed 172 Ukrainian drone control stations in the past day.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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