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On September 9th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter expressed support on Tuesday for Washington using its financial power as a foreign policy tool to advance the interests of U.S. allies, including playing a role in financial and political affairs abroad. Bessenter stated, "I believe we can use the U.S. balance sheet to advance foreign policy. Therefore, we have a foreign policy goal, which is to build alliances in the Western Hemisphere." He added, "Argentina was the first country to take this approach; we considered the Millais governments policies sound." Last year, the U.S. provided Argentina with a multi-billion dollar aid package to help stabilize its currency and support Millais ahead of the midterm elections. Bessenters remarks mark a public acknowledgment by the Trump administration of its willingness to use U.S. financial resources to influence foreign politics and economics.September 9th - Japanese stocks rebounded on Wednesday as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East were replaced by a surge in interest in artificial intelligence. The Nikkei 225 was last up 0.35%, after earlier losses, while the broader Topix index rose about 0.24%. Nomura Securities equity strategist Maki Sawada said news of Verizon signing a multi-billion dollar deal with Corning to provide high-density fiber optics for AI infrastructure boosted confidence among Japanese cable manufacturers like Fujitsu. Sawada stated, "Strong performance in semiconductor and AI-related stocks made a positive contribution to the Nikkei 225." Additionally, Japanese stocks were also influenced by a stronger yen, as the market anticipated the Bank of Japan might accelerate its interest rate hikes at its meeting as early as next week, keeping the yen near a near seven-month high. Analysts at Sony Financial Group said in a report, "Since the market seems to have largely priced in the yens appreciation, the market is expected to shift towards buying on dips once the initial selling pressure subsides."Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, London spot precious metals weakened amid volatility. Geopolitical events continued to escalate, with soaring oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and further increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities in Yemen, coupled with the geopolitical standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, caused Brent crude oil to briefly surge above $99 per barrel. As energy is a core inflation indicator, the surge in oil prices has raised market concerns about a rebound in inflation. The market is repricing for a longer period of high interest rates, putting short-term pressure on gold. 2. In terms of news, Canadas $20 billion retaliatory tariffs on the US took effect on Tuesday. Carney stated that he was not seeking an escalation of the trade war but wanted to accelerate the reduction of dependence on the US. Geopolitically, amidst the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Houthi forces launched a large-scale attack on Saudi energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, prompting Saudi Arabia to shut down several energy installations. Regarding central banks, Chinas gold reserves at the end of August were 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2386.57 tons), an increase of 650,000 ounces (approximately 20.22 tons) month-on-month, marking the 22nd consecutive month of gold purchases by the central bank. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains around 60%, indicating significant market divergence. However, considering the impact of the US-Iran conflict on oil prices and Warshs hawkish comments, the probability of a rate hike is expected to remain high. Nevertheless, its anticipated that the Fed will raise rates only a limited number of times this year. If a rate hike does occur at the September FOMC meeting, it can be considered a confirmed move, potentially hindering a short-term rebound in gold and increasing volatility, but the overall upward trend may remain intact. The upcoming release of US August PPI and CPI data will likely provide strong guidance for the Feds interest rate decision, and the market may experience increased intraday volatility around these data releases.On September 9th, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC) released the "2026 Report on the Innovation Status of the Top 1000 Private Enterprises in R&D Investment," showing that the R&D investment and intensity of the top 1000 private enterprises in my country continued to grow in 2025. This information was obtained by reporters at the 2026 Private Economy Innovation and Development Conference and the "Well-known Private Enterprises Supporting Zhejiangs High-Quality Development" event, jointly held by the ACFIC and the Zhejiang Provincial Peoples Government in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province. The report shows that in 2025, the R&D investment of the shortlisted enterprises showed an upward trend, reaching a total of 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, with an average R&D intensity of 3.73%. The "high-tech, high-value, and high-growth" attributes were prominent, with 640 shortlisted enterprises being classified as such. The overall scale of the shortlisted enterprises remained stable with continuous growth, total profits continued to increase, the quantity and quality of employees improved, and they actively engaged in rural revitalization and public welfare work.On September 9, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in response to the US militarys strikes on Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, the Revolutionary Guard struck two US warships and eight oil tankers, as well as ten vessels that violated regulations.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.