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The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 1 will be released in ten minutes.Alphabet (GOOG.O) is seeking to raise up to $25 billion through a bond issuance.1. The Financial Times reported that sources familiar with the matter revealed that if inflation data released in the coming weeks is strong and market expectations for rising borrowing costs intensify, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will be prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting. 2. According to Saudi media Hadas, senior sources said that Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary agreement on reopening the Sea of Hormuz. The agreement could be announced within days, but still requires approval from Irans National Security Council. The agreement will last for 60 days and aims to resume navigation. 3. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that there are many uncertainties affecting the urea market recently. All member units are requested to strengthen investor education and risk prevention, reminding investors to participate rationally and trade in compliance with regulations. 4. According to Reuters, an official decree shows that the Democratic Republic of Congo has banned the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. 5. According to Mysteel, WBN, one of Indonesias largest nickel ore suppliers, has been approved for an additional RKAB quota of approximately 25 million tons of wet nickel ore in the second half of 2026. Including the quotas approved in the first half of the year, WBNs total RKAB nickel ore quota for 2026 has increased to approximately 37 million wet tons. Currently, no official documents regarding this quota approval have been issued to WBN. 6. A price list shows that Saudi Aramco will lower the price of its Arab Light crude oil for delivery to Asian customers by 50 cents per barrel next month, to $2 per barrel lower than the regional benchmark price. 7. According to Mysteel statistics, as of August 6, the spot lithium ore inventory of 32 sample lithium ore traders was 124,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous week, of which 91,000 tons were available for sale, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous week. 8. Mysteel research shows that as of August 6, imported cotton inventory at major ports increased by 0.34% week-on-week, with a total inventory of 592,600 tons. Among them, Qingdao Port in Shandong Province held 507,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%; Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu Province held approximately 44,600 tons of imported cotton; and other ports held approximately 41,000 tons. 9. Data from Enterprise Singapore (ESG) shows that as of the week ending August 5, Singapores fuel oil inventory rose by 1.443 million barrels to a five-week high of 19.577 million barrels. 10. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 6, 2026, the national daily output of float glass was 142,200 tons, a decrease of 0.42% compared to July 30; this week, the national float glass output was 995,500 tons, a decrease of 0.42% week-on-week and a decrease of 10.84% year-on-year. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 74.898 million weight boxes, a decrease of 455,000 weight boxes month-on-month, a drop of 0.6%, and an increase of 21.1% year-on-year. The inventory days were 34.3 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. 11. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 6th, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from Monday and a decrease of 62,000 tons from last Thursday, not only hitting a new low for the year but also the lowest level for the same period in the past five years; this week, the total domestic ethylene glycol production was 345,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.31%. 12. According to Aladdin, the construction of the Guinea Yingu International Bauxite Project is progressing smoothly, and the entire project is expected to be completed in December this year; the system commissioning phase will begin in January and February 2027, and production and export of ore will officially commence in March, with a designed annual capacity of 30 million tons. 13. According to PanSugar Technology, as the 2025/26 crushing season draws to a close, the combined industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan reached 3.12 million tons, both at historically high levels. The pressure to reduce inventory has become the core challenge in the final stage of the season. Under neutral assumptions, the combined industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan as of the end of September is estimated to be approximately 1.72-1.88 million tons, significantly higher than the national average of 682,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 crushing season and the nearly 10-year average of 627,000 tons.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by about $0.40 in the short term, reaching $76.20 per barrel and $80.66 per barrel respectively.US Treasury bonds fell after British media reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh might be prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation remains strong, and Alphabet (GOOG.O) launched a 10-part issuance of US dollar investment-grade bonds.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.