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April 12 (Reuters) - Iran expects to restore most of its damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70-80% of their pre-attack capacity within the next one to two months, according to the Iranian Students News Agency. Authorities are currently working to recover from a wave of attacks on energy infrastructure. The Iranian Deputy Oil Minister stated that repairs have begun, and some facilities at the Ravan refinery are expected to resume operation within about 10 days, with other units gradually resuming production.According to Japans Kyodo News, Isuzu Motors will postpone the launch of its fuel cell truck, which it developed in collaboration with Honda and was originally scheduled to be released in 2027.On April 12, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that, according to President Putins order, all Russian troops in the special military operations zone were to strictly adhere to the ceasefire agreement starting at 16:00 Moscow time on April 11. However, from 16:00 on April 11 to 8:00 on April 12, Russia recorded 1,971 ceasefire violations by Ukrainian armed forces. The announcement also stated that prior to the ceasefire agreement taking effect, Russian forces conducted strikes on temporary deployment sites of Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries in 38 areas. Ukraine has not yet responded to these claims.On April 12th, Bank of America released a research report on Friday, indicating that in the US, it lowered its growth forecast for this year by 50 basis points to 2.3%, with the direct impact of the war accounting for about three-quarters of the revision. The overall inflation forecast was revised upwards by 70 basis points, with core PCE now expected to reach 3.1% by the end of 2026, 30 basis points higher than previously projected. In the Eurozone, the bank lowered its growth forecast by 60 basis points and raised its inflation forecast by 160 basis points to 3.3%, with core inflation at 2.3%.According to Interfax news agency, Russia claims that Ukraine violated the Easter ceasefire agreement.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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