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According to Nikkei: Japan and the European Union have drawn up an agreement on a satellite network plan.Slovak Prime Minister: We aim to reach an agreement with EU partners on stopping Russian gas supplies and sanctions package by Tuesday.July 12, Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said that as the US government reaches an agreement with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea in the coming weeks, most investors seem to expect the United States to avoid raising tariffs. "This is the expectation that the market has formed," Saglimbene said. "If we dont get such an outcome, then I think if the White House does implement some aggressive tariff measures, the market volatility in the short term may increase."Ukraine said Russia launched 623 drones and missiles during the night.July 12, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 11th, US President Trump hinted that if Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons, he will support Israel in launching a new round of strikes against Iran. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently privately informed Trump that if Iran resumes the development of nuclear weapons, Israel will launch further military strikes against Iran. Trump responded that he was inclined to reach a diplomatic settlement with Iran, that is, to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, but he did not oppose Israels plan. The report also stated that a senior Israeli official revealed that Israel would not necessarily seek explicit approval from the United States on the issue of resuming strikes against Iran. However, considering that the United States seeks to maintain diplomatic ties with Iran, Israel may also face resistance from the United States.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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