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On January 29th, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. At the Ministry of Commerces regular press conference on December 25th last year, it was reported that TikTok had signed agreements with three investors to establish a new TikTok US joint venture to ensure its continued operation in the US. What is the spokespersons comment on this? He Yongqian stated that, in order to implement the important consensus reached during the phone call between the leaders of China and the US, the economic and trade teams of both sides had previously reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving issues such as TikTok through cooperation, based on mutual respect and equal consultation. The Chinese government hopes that companies will reach solutions that comply with Chinese laws and regulations and balance interests. It hopes that the US will work with China in the same direction, earnestly fulfill its corresponding commitments, provide a fair, open, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for the continued and stable operation of Chinese companies in the US, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations.On January 29th, Richard Flynn, Managing Director of Charles Schwab UK, noted in a report that unless there is a substantial shift in inflation or labor market dynamics, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its data-driven approach until at least May 2026. However, he stated that this is an extraordinary period for US monetary policy. "The increasingly open struggle between monetary independence and fiscal power makes the Feds institutional credibility a more acute focus," he pointed out. Flynn stated that this independence remains the cornerstone of global confidence in the dollar, US Treasuries, and the broader US capital markets.On January 29th, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun held a regular press conference. It was reported that China has approved the import of the first batch of Nvidias H200 AI chips. Can the Foreign Ministry confirm this? What signal does this send to China-US relations? "We have responded to relevant questions on multiple occasions. For specific questions, we suggest inquiring with the relevant Chinese authorities," Guo Jiakun said.On January 29th, JPMorgan Chase issued a research report stating that New Oriental Education & Technology Group Co., Ltd. (09901.HK) reported better-than-expected results for its second fiscal quarter of 2026, leading to an upward revision of its guidance for the first time in two years. Managements optimistic outlook prompted the bank to raise its operating profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 7%. The report indicated that New Oriental has returned to a high-quality compound growth trajectory and is expected to continue exceeding expectations and raising guidance. The bank reiterated its "Overweight" rating and top pick status for New Oriental, raising its target price from HK$53 to HK$55.The Norwegian Petroleum Fund: As of December 31, the funds total market value was 21.268 trillion Norwegian kroner.

EUR/USD Expects Fourth Weekly Gains Above 1.0900 Despite The US Dollar's Rebound Advance Ahead Of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:42

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Despite a recent retreat, the EUR/USD bulls maintain control around 1.0920. This reflects the typical Good Friday inactivity and apprehension ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released early in the day. The major currency pair was volatile on Thursday as a result of the US Dollar's initial rebound on fears of a recession, but ended the day unchanged as disappointing US data contrasted with stronger Eurozone data.

 

Fears of a recession in the world's largest economy were prompted by consecutive lackluster US data and falling US Treasury bond yields, giving USD bears a reprieve on Thursday morning. As traders prepared for the all-important NFP, the dollar's subsequent gains were reversed by another disappointing US employment report.

 

Despite this, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 rose to 228K from 200K anticipated and an upwardly revised 246K the prior week. Notable is the increase in Challenger Job Cuts from 77,77K to 89,703K in the given month.

 

Notably, Reuters fanned fears of a recession by citing the most recent decline in the preferred bond market indicator of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The most reliable bond market indicator of an imminent economic contraction, according to Federal Reserve research, is the "near-term forward spread" between the forward rate on Treasury bills 18 months from now and the current yield on three-month Treasury bills.

 

According to Reuters, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated in prepared remarks on Thursday that the global economy is projected to expand by less than 3% in 2023, a decrease from 3.4% in 2022.

 

In other news, Germany's Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.6% year-over-year in February, versus market predictions of -2.7% and previous readings of -1.7%. Additionally, the monthly figures exceeded expectations by 0.1%, coming in at 2.0% compared to 3.7% previously. On Wednesday, Germany Factory Orders for February improved to -5.7% YoY from -12.0% previously revised down and -10.5% market expectations, while MoM growth came in at 4.8% compared to 0.3% expected and 0.5% previous readings.

 

Wall Street and US Treasury bond yields have both reduced weekly losses as a result of these strategies, but investors remain skeptical.

 

In the context of less liquidity surrounding the March US employment report, sporadic activity on the major markets can keep the EUR/USD inactive and prone to abrupt price swings. Notable is the fact that recent dovish Fed forecasts and disappointing US data generate expectations for a positive surprise and enormous price volatility thereafter.


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