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On May 5th, following the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) third consecutive interest rate hike and raising its cash rate target to 4.35%, the rate remains below Societe Generales year-end forecast of 4.7%. Societe Generale economists stated in a report, "The RBA still has room to maneuver and may raise rates at least one more time." Economists expect the RBA to maintain interest rates at 4.7% throughout 2027 and the first half of 2028, predicting core inflation will peak at 3.8% in the second quarter, before falling to 3.1% by the end of 2026. They added, "A pause in rate hikes in June seems inevitable," noting that RBA Governor Bullocks more neutral tone prompted demand for short-term rates, simultaneously pushing the yield curve for Australian 2-year and 10-year government bonds into a "bull market steepening."The World Health Organization says it plans to medically evacuate the two people on board who are infected with Hantavirus, and the cruise ship will continue its journey to the Canary Islands.World Health Organization: Our hypothesis is that the Hantavirus cases were contracted outside the cruise ship where the incident occurred.Iranian border police commander: Five smuggling vessels carrying 200,000 liters of smuggled fuel were seized in Khuzestan province.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.1 earthquake occurred at 17:05 on May 5 in Kuqa City, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang (41.35 degrees north latitude, 83.89 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 15 kilometers.

As investors wait for US/Canada employment data, the USD/CAD trading range is limited to 40 pips

Daniel Rogers

Apr 06, 2023 13:36

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD pair retraced below 1.3450 in the early Asian session as the US Dollar Index (DXY) lost upside momentum after reaching the key resistance level of 102.00. As investors anticipate the release of the United States/Canada Employment data, the Canadian dollar is expected to deliver a dazzling performance.

 

As a consequence of a decline in Job Openings and sluggish additions of new positions, as measured by Automatic Data Processing, firms have slackened recruitment efforts, thereby alleviating the tight US labor market. (ADP). This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its May meeting.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures have resumed their downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

 

Employment data will influence the Canadian Dollar. The consensus estimate for Net Change in Employment is 12K, which is a decrease from the previous release of 21.8K. The estimated unemployment rate is 5.1%, up from 5.0% previously.

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is exhibiting an Inverted Flag pattern on an hourly time frame. The Inverted Flag is a trend-following pattern that consists of a protracted consolidation followed by a decline. Participants prefer to enter an auction after a bearish bias has been established, and current vendors increase their position size during the consolidation phase of a chart pattern.

 

The Canadian dollar was unable to maintain a position above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3458, indicating that further declines are imminent.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has an upper limit of 60.00. A violation of the unfavorable 20.00-40.00 range will trigger downward momentum.

 

A break below the low of April 04, 1.3406, would expose the asset to a fresh six-week low around 1.3350, the low of February 6 followed by round-number support at 1.3300.

 

In an alternative scenario, a move above the psychological resistance of 1.3500 would lend momentum to US Dollar supporters, propelling the asset toward the 31- and 29-March highs of 1.3559 and 1.3619, respectively.


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