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European Central Bank Vice President Guindos: High market valuations and fiscal policy are among the risks to financial stability. The third risk relates to private lending.On April 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun hosted a regular press conference. The 82nd Annual Meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) was held in Bangkok, Thailand. The Chinese delegation attended the meeting and announced Chinas willingness to host the 2027 Annual Meeting in Shanghai. Could the spokesperson provide some details? Guo Jiakun stated that ESCAP is the most important comprehensive economic and social development organization of the United Nations in the Asia-Pacific region, shouldering the important mission of promoting open, inclusive, and sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific. Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu led the Chinese delegation to the meeting and delivered a speech in the general debate. Focusing on implementing the four global initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping, he elaborated on Chinas position and propositions in four aspects: upholding multilateralism, promoting open cooperation, seizing digital opportunities, and promoting sustainable development, calling on all parties to further deepen Asia-Pacific cooperation and promote the building of an Asia-Pacific community. "Next year marks the 80th anniversary of the founding of ESCAP. China is willing to host the 2027 Annual Meeting in Shanghai, the birthplace of ESCAP. We look forward to taking this opportunity to reaffirm our original aspirations and missions with all members, deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, and make greater contributions to building an Asia-Pacific community," Guo Jiakun said.On April 21, Mohamad Elmasry, Professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute, stated that relations between the United States and Iran have become "very precarious." He said, "A few days ago, a real opportunity for improvement arose when Trump asked the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was at that moment that the US also had a chance to step down the ladder of escalation, but Trump did the opposite." He added that Trump "used this opportunity to declare victory because he wanted to show the American people that he had won and forced Iran to surrender." Elmasry stated that this was "a really significant miscalculation" by Trump, as this misstep has led to the current escalation of tensions. We still cannot be 100% certain whether the Iranians will appear in Pakistan for the second round of peace talks; I think they are very likely to go, but given everything that has happened in the past few days, the negotiations will now become much more difficult.Oil trader Gunvor: Oil demand fell by 1 million barrels per day in March and is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in April.Oil trader Gunvor: The oil market will face serious aviation fuel problems this summer.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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