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On July 7th, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Leon Panetta stated that even as the US and Iran approach a lasting peace agreement, the ECB is still grappling with an uncertain economic situation. Speaking at a conference in Rome, Panetta said that while the US-Iran negotiations could lead to energy prices falling below the ECBs June forecast, "the outlook remains fragile." He stated, "Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth continue to coexist. This requires continued monitoring of geopolitical developments, energy markets, supply chains, wages, and inflation expectations. It also requires monetary policy to avoid committing to a predetermined path." Panetta also noted that the current conflict is one of a series of increasingly frequent supply shocks that could alter how policymakers respond in the future to ensure inflation reaches the 2% target in the medium term.On July 7th, the State Financial Regulatory Commission (SFC) and the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government jointly issued "Several Measures to Accelerate the Construction of Shanghai International Reinsurance Center." These measures emphasize strengthening the primary responsibilities of insurance institutions, urging them to establish and improve internal control and compliance management systems, and enhancing the management of operational risks and cross-border capital flows. The measures also aim to enhance the regulatory effectiveness of the SFC, improve prudential regulatory rules in the reinsurance sector, and strengthen supervision of solvency, related-party transactions, and business finances. Support will be given to the Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau to research and establish a monitoring system adapted to reinsurance risks, improving the penetration and effectiveness of risk monitoring for cross-border reinsurance and on-exchange transactions, and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the Shanghai International Reinsurance Center. Finally, the measures leverage the auxiliary regulatory functions of the reinsurance registration and trading center to improve the quality and efficiency of reinsurance supervision.July 7th Futures News: On July 7th, the Shanghai Futures Exchanges energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 288,584 tons, an increase of 2,417 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 1,557 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 6,640 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 336 tons. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 9310 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 15970 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 2961000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.On July 7th, the State Financial Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government jointly issued "Several Measures to Accelerate the Construction of Shanghai International Reinsurance Center." These measures propose improving the quality and efficiency of the reinsurance industry, supporting reinsurance institutions in increasing capital and issuing capital replenishment instruments to enhance their internal and external capital accumulation capabilities and strengthen the reinsurance industrys overall strength. The measures also guide the insurance industry to integrate insurance and reinsurance underwriting capabilities to improve risk protection levels in areas such as major national projects, strategic emerging industries, and peoples livelihood security. Furthermore, the measures support reinsurance institutions in leveraging their professional and technical advantages to assist the insurance industry in risk reduction services.On July 7th, the State Financial Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government jointly issued "Several Measures to Accelerate the Construction of Shanghai International Reinsurance Center." These measures include supporting overseas reinsurance acceptors and reinsurance brokers to conduct referral work through the reinsurance registration and trading center, promoting the participation of overseas insurance institutions in the Chinese reinsurance market, and expanding platform transactions. The measures also aim to accelerate the optimization of on-exchange trading functions, improve standardized reinsurance contracts and invoices, promote the construction of an efficient and transparent digital trading platform, and gradually improve the efficiency of platform registration, contract signing, account clearing, fund settlement, bill circulation, and tax collection. Furthermore, the measures promote the establishment of an on-exchange transaction performance management mechanism for the reinsurance registration and trading center to continuously improve the effectiveness of industry self-regulation.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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