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New York silver futures fell 5.00% intraday, currently trading at $74.52 per ounce.New York silver futures fell below $75 per ounce, down 4.58% on the day.The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 4%, while the Hang Seng Index is currently down 2.77%. Gold stocks, optical communications, non-ferrous metals, chips, building materials and cement are among the biggest losers.1. Market Dynamics: Platinum and palladium futures contracts both hit their daily limit down, falling by 16% to 552.15 yuan/gram and 413.7 yuan/gram respectively; Shanghai gold futures fell by over 11%, and Shanghai silver futures hit their daily limit down; precious metals experienced a sell-off across the board. 2. Core Drivers: US President Trump nominated the hawkish Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, coupled with the unexpected rise in US December PPI inflation (annual rate of 3%, higher than expected), shaking market expectations for aggressive easing, easing concerns about the Feds independence, and shifting macroeconomic expectations. 3. Risk Control Pressure: CME significantly raised margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the second time this year, with gold margin also increasing (from 6% to 8% for non-high-risk accounts), significantly raising holding costs and intensifying liquidity tightening pressure. 4. Fund Flows: Speculative funds mainly flowed out; as of January 30, gold, silver, and palladium recorded reductions for 6, 2, and 3 consecutive days respectively, and the North American gold mining index fell sharply. 5. Nanhua Futures: Short-term "tightening trading" expectations do not change the medium-to-long-term "easing trend," and the foundation for a platinum and palladium bull market remains; however, the Warsh nomination brings concerns about a potential disruption of the underlying logic, and caution is advised against opening gaps due to high volatility. Position control is also crucial. 6. Yide Futures: The sharp decline disrupted the upward trend, but undoubtedly opened up opportunities for allocation trading. 7. Guoxin Futures: The trend of platinum group metals is anchored to the macro sentiment of the gold and silver sector. The Warsh nomination shakes the easing narrative, and CMEs increased protection measures exacerbate liquidity tightening; platinum and palladium may exhibit a weak and volatile situation, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. 8. Other news: Parts of the US government face the risk of a shutdown, and House members need to return in two days to review the spending bill; Federal Reserve official Milan stated that he will continue to serve as a governor until Congress confirms a successor, emphasizing that current interest rates are still too restrictive. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.O) from $850 to $950.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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