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Real-time News
September 11th - According to foreign media reports, U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate in August as gasoline prices rebound after two consecutive months of decline, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Labor Department will release its August CPI report on Friday. This follows strong performance in several key components of Thursdays PPI report. Economists say that with oil prices returning above $100 per barrel, inflation is bound to remain high and expand further. Other economists believe that price pressures will persist due to import tariffs, especially the recent tariffs imposed on Canada, a major U.S. trading partner.US August Unadjusted CPI YoY (Previous: +3.4%, Median Expectation: +3.4%) 1. Citigroup: +3.3%; Capital Economics: +3.3%; UniCredit: 3.3%; Jefferies: +3.3%; Berenberg Bank: +3.3%; Deutsche Bank: +3.3%; 2. DBS Bank: +3.3%; Nomura Securities: +3.3%; Societe Generale: +3.3%; Lloyds Banking Group: +3.3%; Sparta Capital Securities: +3.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +3.4%; 3. Barclays: +3.4%; Wells Fargo: +3.4%; ABN AMRO: +3.4%; ANZ: +3.4%; Danske Bank: +3.4%; Royal Bank of Canada: +3.4%; 4. Bank of America: +3.4%; BNP Paribas: +3.4%; Allied Bank: +3.4%; Monex Group: +3.4%; DekaBank: +3.4%; Morgan Stanley: +3.4%; 5. Goldman Sachs: +3.4%; TD Securities: +3.4%; HSBC: +3.4%; Nikko Securities: +3.4%; UBS: +3.4%; CIBC: +3.4%; 6. JPMorgan Chase: +3.4%; Standard Chartered: 3.4%; Scotiabank: +3.4%; Sberbank Berlin: +3.4%; BMO: +3.4%; ING: +3.5%. US August Unadjusted Core CPI YoY (Previous: +2.5%, Median Expectation: +2.4%) 1. Citigroup: +2.3%; Jefferies: +2.3%; TD Securities: +2.3%; U.S. Bancorp: +2.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +2.4%; Deutsche Bank: +2.4%; 2. Barclays: +2.4%; ABN AMRO: +2.4%; Amtrak Financial: +2.4%; Monex Group: +2.4%; Danske Bank: +2.4%; Nordea: +2.4%; 3. ANZ: +2.4%; BNP Paribas: +2.4%; Bank of America: +2.4%; Lloyds Banking Group: +2.4%; SZSE: +2.4%; CIBC: +2.4%; 4. JPMorgan Chase: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Allied Bank: +2.4%; Goldman Sachs: +2.4%; DekaBank: +2.4%; Bank of Montreal: +2.4%; 5. Wells Fargo: +2.4%; HSBC: +2.4%; ING: +2.4%; Nomura Securities: +2.4%; Nikko Securities: +2.4%; Morgan Stanley: +2.4%; 6. Societe Generale: +2.4%; Standard Chartered: +2.4%; UBS: +2.4%; UniCredit: +2.4%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Sparta Capital Securities: +2.5%.On September 11th, Benedict Cuquela, Chief Investment Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, stated in a report that the European Central Banks (ECB) focus solely on energy supply shocks was surprising. The ECB failed to consider the still fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation. It also did not adequately account for the impact of tightening bond market interest rates. While the ECB is not lacking in credibility on inflation, there is a risk of over-tightening the nascent economic recovery.September 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated at a press conference that day that "no option is ruled out" in discussions and research related to revising the "Three Security Documents" regarding whether Japan should possess nuclear-powered submarines. This is not the first time Koizumi has made similar remarks. Last October, when asked about the issue, Koizumi also stated that "no option is ruled out" for the propulsion system of Japans next-generation submarines, hinting at the possibility of introducing nuclear submarines.On September 11, according to a report by Axios citing two US officials, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman called US President Trump twice on September 10, urging him to launch an attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The report stated that Trump rejected the request. US officials said the US government currently has "no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis." According to Axios, the US is increasingly concerned about the rapidly escalating conflict in Yemen and is increasing its support for Saudi Arabia while striving to avoid direct military intervention. The report also stated that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper arrived in Saudi Arabia on September 10 for emergency coordination consultations. Axios added that in recent weeks, US military and civilian officials have made it clear to Saudi Arabia that Trumps directive is to "focus US forces on dealing with Iran and defending the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding opening new military fronts."

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.