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On April 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that they value maintaining flexibility in policy options ahead of this weeks policy decision. The market has reacted accordingly, lowering its rate hike expectations to approximately 20%. However, this probability is expected to rise to around 63% by the June meeting. Looking at the full year, traders are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 58 basis points, roughly equivalent to two subsequent 25 basis point hikes, which is Goldman Sachs current baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs believes that given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the ECB is unlikely to take action this week, as policymakers want to preserve policy space while assessing the second-round effects of inflation. The press conference is expected to maintain the tone of recent communications, with ECB President Lagarde potentially stating that the Governing Council will monitor the second-round effects and is prepared to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% in the medium term. Regarding the future policy path, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to implement two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, the first in June, followed by a move to raise the deposit rate to 2.50% in September.On April 27th, at the 2026 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, Unisoc and ADAYO jointly released a new generation AI cockpit platform equipped with the A8880 chip, which achieves a significant leap in CPU, GPU computing power and graphics rendering capabilities.On April 27th, Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen stated in a report that market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear excessive ahead of meetings later this week, thus putting the pound and euro at risk. LSEG data shows that money market pricing indicates the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday but will raise them twice before the end of the year. "We are particularly skeptical of market expectations regarding the ECB and the Bank of England," Nguyen said. She stated that there is considerable room for these expectations to be reassessed, and therefore, exchange rates could experience significant volatility.On April 27th, a Counterpoint Research report showed that global smartphone SoC shipments declined by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing memory shortage is not only impacting new product development for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and SoC suppliers, but also prompting them to optimize their product portfolios. The high-end smartphone market performed relatively steadily, with most of the cost increases already passed on to end consumers. Meanwhile, the entry-level market is gradually adopting lower-cost, older chipsets to maintain price competitiveness. Qualcomm and MediaTek both experienced double-digit declines in shipments. In contrast, Apple, Samsung, Google, and Unisoc achieved positive growth. Apple, Samsung, and Google benefited from their supply chain integration capabilities, mitigating the impact of the current memory shortage to some extent.On April 27, the draft revision of the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises was submitted to the 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress for its first review. The revision adheres to the leadership of the Party, a problem-oriented approach, the principle of balancing development and security, and the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The draft revises 71 articles and adds 32 new articles, comprising nine chapters and 109 articles, comprehensively revising the existing law. Major revisions include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, improving the management and supervision system for state-owned assets of enterprises, clarifying the principle of classified management, and improving the management system for state-owned capital gains. The Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises stipulates the basic system for the management and supervision of state-owned assets of enterprises in my country. Since its implementation on May 1, 2009, it has provided strong legal protection for the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys development environment faces profound and complex changes. Revising and improving the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, using legislation to guide and guarantee the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises, and strengthening the rule of law in the management and supervision of state-owned assets, is of great significance for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the state-owned economy.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.