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Preliminary investigations by Iraqi security officials indicate that Iranian vessels loaded with explosives attacked two oil tankers in Iraqi waters.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran dismantles armed groups colluding with the US and Israel. 2. The Iranian president reiterates that Iran has no intention of escalating the conflict. 3. Iran warns the US that it may be bogged down in a protracted war of attrition. 4. The Iranian president proposes three conditions to end the current war. 5. Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control. 6. Iranian Education Minister: US-Israel attacks have resulted in the deaths of 206 teachers and students. 7. Iran states it will no longer limit itself to reciprocal retaliation and will implement a "series of strikes." 8. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirms the deaths of several military personnel in the US-Israel attacks. 9. Iran claims its forces attacked US military facilities in Kuwait. 10. Iranian military: A significant portion of US and Israeli radar and air defense capabilities have been destroyed. 11. Iranian official: Mojtaba Khamenei sustained minor injuries but continues to work. 12. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard claims it conducted an operation against Israel in conjunction with Hezbollah in Lebanon. 13. The US threatened to attack Iranian civilian ports in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran responded that if that happened, all ports in the region would become "legitimate targets" for Iran. 14. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have fired on the Thai-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree in the Strait of Hormuz. 15. A spokesperson for Irans Hatem Anbia Central Command stated that the US cannot control oil prices through "artificial means" and is prepared for oil prices to rise to $200 per barrel. 16. According to Irans Defapress news: Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Shekarchi vowed to retaliate against Israeli and US attacks on Iranian residential areas. 17. A spokesperson for Irans Hatem Anbia Joint Air Defense Command stated that Tehran will target "economic and banking centers" in the region associated with the US and Israel following the attack on Iranian banks. ②US 1. All six THAAD launchers deployed by US forces in South Korea have been moved out. 2. Trump stated that the US will "slightly" reduce its strategic petroleum reserves. 3. Trump stated that Iran has "nothing left to fight" and the war will end soon. 4. A preliminary internal US military investigation concluded that the attack on an Iranian school was a "mistake." 5. The governor of California stated that he was "aware" of the risk of Iranian drone attacks. 6. Rheinmetall estimated that the first round of US strikes against Iran cost $4 billion. 7. The US advised its citizens to consider leaving Lebanon amid regional tensions. 8. The US embassy warned of potential attacks on its citizens in Iraq and urged them to evacuate. 9. The US State Department stated that Iran and its supported groups may be planning attacks on US oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq. 10. US Central Command urged civilians in Iran to immediately avoid all port facilities where Iranian naval forces are operating. 11. US President Trump: We have dealt two heavy blows to the Iranian leadership. Oil prices will fall. The US militarys progress is far beyond expectations. 12. US President Trump: (Regarding the Iranian operation) We destroyed 58 Iranian naval vessels and 31 minelayers. We will not leave until the mission is complete; we do not want to repeat this every two years. ③ Israel 1. Israeli officials stated that the current assessment indicates the US has not yet instructed them to end the war. 2. The Israeli military claims to have attacked multiple targets, including the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 3. An IDF spokesperson stated that Israel still has a long list of Iranian targets to target. 4. The IDF: Following a situation assessment, the domestic frontline command announced that it can now leave protected areas throughout the country. ④ Other: 1. Australia closes its embassy in Israel. 2. Spain downgrades diplomatic relations with Israel. 3. Italian warships arrive in Cypriot waters. 4. A UN Security Council resolution demands that Iran cease its attacks on Gulf states. 5. The UN Security Council fails to pass a resolution submitted by Russia concerning Iran. 6. US diplomatic facilities in Baghdad, Iraq, are attacked by drones. 7. Ursula von der Leyen stated that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has cost Europe an additional €3 billion. 8. Italy explicitly refuses to participate in the attack on Iraq and plans to curb energy price premiums through taxes. 9. Iraqi militias claim to have attacked US targets, resulting in dozens of US casualties. 10. G7 leaders agree to coordinate action to restore freedom of navigation in the Gulf region. 11. Hezbollah leader pledges allegiance to Irans new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba. 12. British maritime security company Ambrey reports that oil storage facilities at Omans Salalah port have been attacked. 13. EU countries approve sanctions against 19 Iranian officials and entities. Iranian Foreign Ministry: This is neither illogical nor ethical. 14. Iraqi port officials report that two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked by unidentified objects in Iraqi territorial waters, resulting in fires. 15. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC): The Canadian Prime Minister stated that Canada will not participate in any attacks against Iran by the US and Israel, and will never participate in such actions. 16. UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reports that a cargo ship was hit by an unidentified flying object in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire on board. The ship has requested assistance, and the crew is evacuating. 17. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Russia may send troops to Iran, claiming that Moscow is already supporting Tehran with drones and may also provide missiles and air defense systems. Lebanon-Israel Conflict: 1. Israeli airstrikes in multiple locations in Lebanon caused dozens of casualties. 2. The Israeli military stated that it had launched a "large-scale" attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon. 3. The Israeli military claimed to have dropped approximately 200 rounds of ammunition on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing several commanders. 4. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: €100 million in humanitarian aid is being provided to Lebanon. 5. Israel Defense Forces: Hezbollah launched rockets into multiple areas of Israel. The Israeli Air Force is intercepting them while simultaneously striking Hezbollah launchers and other infrastructure targets in Lebanon.Iraqi port officials say two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked by unidentified forces in Iraqi territorial waters, resulting in fires.On March 12, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó posted a video on social media on March 11, stating that amidst extreme volatility in the global energy market, Ukraines military attack on the TurkStream gas pipeline located in Russia seriously threatens Hungarys energy security. He called Ukraines attack a "crime." He said the TurkStream pipeline is a crucial guarantee for Hungarys gas supply, and if the pipeline is not operational, Hungary will be unable to obtain gas. It is reported that in the past two weeks, Ukraine has launched twelve attacks on the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines. According to Russia, all attacks were unsuccessful, and the relevant infrastructure was undamaged.Security sources say two drones landed in the Maginot oil field in southern Iraq, with no casualties reported.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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