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June 10th Futures News: Copper prices maintained a weak range-bound adjustment today. On the macro front, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index continued to strengthen, supported by strong employment data and high inflation expectations. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have largely subsided, with some even betting on a rate hike as early as September. This high-interest-rate environment is suppressing copper prices. On the fundamental front, domestic social inventories decreased slightly this week, and imported copper arrivals decreased, but downstream buyers remained hesitant due to high prices, resulting in weak purchasing. Supply-side disruptions were frequent. Chiles Antofagasta mine was partially shut down due to the earthquake, and supply disruptions from Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo continued. The DRC also raised the tariff rate on strategic minerals such as lithium to 10%. In the short term, the US refined copper import tariff decision is imminent. Currently, the COMEX premium relative to LME is about 6%. If the tariff is implemented, it will accelerate copper inflows into the US and tighten overseas markets, providing support for prices. In summary, with both macro pressures and supply-side disruptions, copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and changes in macroeconomic data. In the spot market, trading was relatively stable today. Copper prices are at low levels, prompting downstream buyers to purchase on dips. With delivery approaching and the import window closing, market supply appears to be tightening, leading to reluctance among holders to sell and further narrowing of the spot discount.Italys seasonally adjusted industrial production rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, compared with an expected decline of 0.1% and a revised previous reading of 0.6% (up from 0.70%).Italys adjusted industrial output rose 1.3% year-on-year in April, revised from 1.50% to 1.4% in the previous month.Pakistans Information Minister: The Pakistani military has struck militant hideouts on the Afghan border.June 10th - On June 9th, Tencent Cloud and ASUS officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement: the two parties will jointly create a "personal space disk" for millions of laptop users based on Tencent Clouds self-developed AgentBucket intelligent storage capabilities. This marks the first large-scale commercial deployment of Tencent Cloud Storages enterprise-level cloud storage scenario capabilities on a leading PC brand; it also signifies that cloud storage is officially upgrading from an optional PC accessory to one of the essential infrastructures for embracing the AIPC trend.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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