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On November 26th, Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja stated in a report that the UK budget appears better than expected, with the fiscal buffer doubling from £10 billion in March to just under £22 billion. He indicated that public borrowing is expected to continue its downward trend. Budgetary measures could lower inflation, thereby increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England interest rate cut. Raja noted, however, that the fiscal austerity measures may take effect later, raising some questions about their credibility.1. U.S. EIA gasoline inventories rose by the largest amount since the week ending November 26, 2025, in the week ending November 21. 2. U.S. EIA distillate fuel oil inventories rose by the largest amount since the week ending September 12, 2025, in the week ending November 21. 3. U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserves reached their highest level since the week ending September 30, 2022, in the week ending November 21. 4. U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding strategic reserves, reached their highest level since the week ending September 19, 2025, in the week ending November 21.The EIAs implied demand for U.S. distillate fuel oil production for the week ending November 21 was 5.0331 million barrels per day, compared to 4.9746 million barrels per day in the previous week.The EIAs data for total U.S. gasoline production and implied demand for the week ending November 21 was 9.8144 million barrels per day, compared to 9.5011 million barrels per day in the previous week.The EIA crude oil production implied demand data for the week ending November 21 in the United States was 19.854 million barrels per day, compared with 20.273 million barrels per day in the previous week.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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