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On August 24th, Derek Halpenny, a strategist at MUFG, stated in a report that the dollar faces downside risks ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenters speech and the Federal Reserves Jackson Hole symposium. Following the Treasurys announcement last week of an increase in long-term bond repurchase operations, Bessenter is likely to release information later regarding fiscal consolidation plans. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Friday. Halpenny indicated that Warsh is likely to continue to release relatively few signals about future policy, "and if credible fiscal consolidation measures are not announced by then, the long-term bond market could be particularly impacted."On August 24th, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data on Guangzhous economic performance from January to July 2026. From January to July, the citys fixed asset investment increased by 2.1% year-on-year. By sector, industrial investment increased by 4.2%, with industrial technological upgrading investment increasing by 13.7%; infrastructure investment decreased by 5.3%, but investment in key transportation projects saw rapid growth, with water transport and road transport investments increasing by 51.2% and 11.6% respectively; real estate development investment decreased by 6.4%. Large-scale equipment renewal policies have yielded significant results, with equipment and tooling investment growing well by 8.0%. Investment in new industrial sectors accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing investment increasing by 28.6%, including a 33.4% increase in investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing. Private investment remained vibrant, increasing by 9.8% year-on-year, with private industrial investment growing by 23.2%.On August 24th, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics released data on Guangzhous economic performance from January to July 2026. In the first seven months of this year, the citys industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.5% year-on-year, total retail sales increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 28.6%; revenue of the citys service sector above designated size increased by 12% year-on-year in the first half of the year. The citys industrial production maintained steady growth, modern service industries developed well, emerging growth drivers accelerated, and the industrial structure shifted towards innovation and optimization, maintaining an overall stable economic development trend. Among the three pillar industries, automobile manufacturing grew by 7.7%, electronic product manufacturing by 10.8%, and petrochemical manufacturing by 3.7%. The effects of the "two new" policies continued to emerge, with the added value of electrical machinery and equipment, general equipment, and special equipment manufacturing increasing by 14.6%, 11.4%, and 8.2%, respectively.On August 24th, it was learned from the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs that in the first seven months of this year, Customs Advanced Certified Enterprises (AEOs), accounting for only 1.11% of foreign trade enterprises, contributed 48.73% of the total foreign trade volume, with imports and exports increasing by 25.7%, making outstanding contributions to Guangdongs foreign trade. Customs promoted "credit empowerment and policy synergy," focusing on precise credit cultivation, providing effective enterprise coordinator services, and deepening cross-departmental joint incentives, helping to cultivate 2,035 Customs Advanced Certified Enterprises, ranking first in the country. This year, 111 new AEO enterprises were certified, significantly expanding the scope of AEO enterprises. Guided by the cultivation and strengthening of "chain leader" enterprises in 15 industrial chains, continuous efforts were made to promote innovative cultivation measures for upstream and downstream enterprises and enterprises within groups, cultivating 14 "chain leader" enterprises in Jiangmen City. This effectively supported the orderly undertaking of industrial transfer from the Pearl River Delta, empowered technological innovation for traditional pillar enterprises such as home appliances, textiles, and metal products, and helped key private enterprises improve their internal management and enhance their international competitiveness by aligning with international trade standards.On August 24, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference. Lin Jian introduced that the comprehensive strategic dialogue mechanism is a new mechanism established between China and Indonesia, providing important institutional support for deepening the "five pillars" cooperation between the two countries under the new circumstances. The China-Indonesia Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers "2+2" mechanism is the first ministerial-level "2+2" mechanism established by China globally, and this is the second meeting held by both sides. Lin Jian stated that as major developing countries and important members of the Global South, strengthening strategic cooperation and deepening solidarity and cooperation between China and Indonesia has significant and far-reaching implications that transcend the bilateral scope. The success of China-Indonesia cooperation is also a success for the Global South. China is willing to work with Indonesia to follow the strategic consensus reached by the two heads of state, effectively translate the consensus reached at relevant mechanism meetings into tangible results, expand and strengthen the all-round strategic cooperation between China and Indonesia, jointly resist risks and challenges, contribute to their respective modernization processes, and play a greater role in regional and global stability and prosperity.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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