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According to TASS, Russia is considering a short-term ban on diesel exports lasting several months.The yield on German two-year government bonds fell to a seven-week low of 2.508% after the release of the European Central Banks consumer expectations survey, down 3 basis points on the day.On June 26th, Fitch Ratings BMI Commodities Research division remained bullish on gold, maintaining its 2026 average gold price forecast of $4,600 per ounce. The firm also believes the Federal Reserve will not make any moves on interest rates this year. As noted last week, the Feds hawkish tone has fueled expectations of rate hikes, posing a significant downside risk to gold. However, as long as inflationary pressures related to the Middle East conflict materialize as expected, and with the recent US-Iran agreement beginning to subside, the most likely outcome is that interest rates will remain unchanged for an extended period. Short-term gold price movements may be driven by Fed policy signals, and precious metals are susceptible to market expectation repricing and a renewed strengthening of the US dollar in the short term.June 26th - A survey released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Friday showed that eurozone consumers lowered their inflation expectations for the next year in May, while long-term expectations remained stable. This indicates that the ECB is not facing pressure to raise interest rates again quickly. Some ECB policymakers said that further tightening of monetary policy is still needed to curb inflation expectations, but there is still considerable disagreement within the ECB regarding the timing of the next move. The ECB consumer expectations survey showed that consumers expectations for inflation over the next year fell from 4.0% in April to 3.5% in May; their expectations for inflation over the next three and five years remained unchanged at 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Based on a survey of approximately 19,000 adults in 11 eurozone countries, the ECB stated: "Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months has decreased, but remains higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East wars." As in the past, lower-income groups reported higher current inflation perceptions and expectations than other groups, while younger people reported relatively lower inflation perceptions and expectations. Financial markets currently expect the ECB to raise interest rates one or two more times, with the next rate hike not being fully priced in by the market until the fall.On June 26th, Wang Shuo, Director of the Wuhan Municipal Bureau of Data, revealed the above information at a press conference on the theme of "Activating the Value of Data Elements." He also stated that Wuhan will plan 100 data circulation and utilization scenarios around the "965" industrial system. "The upcoming new version of the computing power voucher policy will have a scale of 100 million yuan, and universities, research institutes, enterprises, and individual entrepreneurs residing in the OPC community can all apply," Wang Shuo said. He added that the simultaneously upgraded Wuhan computing power public service platform will enable tokenized services, striving to allow more individuals and enterprises to use computing power as easily as water and electricity.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

USD:CAD.png 

 

Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.