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The U.S. State Department announced a significant expansion of an existing visa restriction policy that targets individuals working for U.S. adversaries. Measures have been taken to impose visa restrictions on 26 individuals in the hemisphere engaged in related activities.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $158 million from five counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.On April 17th, former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on the US government to develop contingency plans to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasury bonds. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson stated, "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted, short-term, and prepared in advance, ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson said that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to fail, its nature would be different from the financial crisis he dealt with two decades ago. "Back then, the situation was already bad, but the government still had fiscal space to deal with the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, reaching a tipping point, and when trying to issue Treasury bonds, only the Federal Reserve is a buyer, while Treasury bond prices fall and interest rates rise, it will be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "vicious cycle": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, pushing up government interest payments and further widening the fiscal deficit. In extreme cases, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will have to intervene as an emergency buyer. Paulson stated, "If it happens, the impact will be very severe, so we must prepare for that possibility."On April 17, CNBC reported that U.S. Federal Judge Richard Leon issued a revised order on Thursday prohibiting the Trump administration from carrying out above-ground construction on the controversial White House banquet hall project, but allowing the government to continue underground construction, including works related to national security facilities. According to the injunction issued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the judge also allowed “strictly necessary” above-ground construction to cover, reinforce, and protect these national security facilities, provided that such construction does not “lock down the floor size and volume of the banquet hall.” The order was issued five days after the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia Circuit asked Leon to clarify its March 31 ruling, which prohibited the Trump administration from proceeding with the planned $400 million, 90,000-square-foot banquet hall construction project. The appeals court specifically asked Leon to reconsider the potential national security implications of the construction ban. The administration had told the appeals court that the ban “poses a serious national security risk to the White House, the President and his family, and presidential staff.”ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB must maintain flexibility in its choices and cannot make any commitments at this time.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

USD:CAD.png 

 

Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.