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Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iran – ① Iranian Foreign Ministry: No final conclusion has been reached on the Iran-US agreement. All matters concerning the agreement are speculation. ② Iranian media: There is a high probability that Iran will approve the text. ③ Iranian Armed Forces: If the US attacks again, it will suffer a more violent response. 2. United States – ① Trump: The agreement is expected to be signed this weekend. The Supreme Leader has agreed to reach an agreement, and all parties in Iran have approved the US-Iran agreement; he refused to set a deadline for the agreement; once the agreement is signed, the US will lift the blockade. ② US media: The three major differences have been narrowed under Qatars mediation. 3. Israel – ① Israel: Trump promised that Iran would limit missile production and stop regional support. ② Israel was surprised by Trumps post. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu learned of this during a cabinet meeting. 4. Others – ① Sources say that dialogue on Lebanon and regional security will continue after the US-Iran agreement is reached. ② Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey gathered to assess mediation efforts regarding the US-Iran situation. Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran – ① Iranian Foreign Ministry: The strait remains closed. 2. The United States—① U.S. Central Command: Since imposing the blockade on April 13, it has crippled 9 ships and forced another 135 to change course. ② Trump: The strait may open on Saturday or next Monday. ③ U.S. military: The Strait of Hormuz remains open to traffic. 3. Others—① Indian Ministry of Shipping: 13 Indian-flagged ships ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz; Indian Ministry of External Affairs: All three ships attacked were carried out by the U.S. Navy. Other situations: 1. Kuwait Civil Aviation Authority announced that flights suspended due to the Iranian attack have resumed. 2. According to Axios: The Israeli government expects to allocate more than $350 million over several years to relocate 61 newly approved settlements. 3. Bessant: Any damage to Gulf allies will be paid for with Iranian funds, and Iran will lose its ongoing zero-sum game. If necessary, the U.S. will withdraw funds from Iranian accounts.On June 12, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated on the 11th that all matters concerning the US-Iran agreement were speculation. To date, Iran has not reached a final conclusion on the agreement. Baghae also stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become more insecure due to US actions. Baghae further stated that Qatar and Pakistan are actively playing a mediating role, but US actions have affected the diplomatic process. He said that Iran was aware of the progress of the negotiations from the beginning, and most of the text of the agreement was completed, but the US has continuously changed its position. Iran has proven that it will never compromise on issues that it considers "red lines."June 12 - According to a report by Iranian state television on the 11th, a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran has not yet reached a final conclusion on the Iran-US agreement, and all reports from the outside world regarding the agreement are speculation, with no details yet finalized.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Once we reach a conclusion that the text of the memorandum of understanding can safeguard the interests of the Iranian people, we will release it.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: If Iran intended to abandon its principled position under pressure and threats, we would have done so a year ago.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

USD:CAD.png 

 

Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.