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On February 21, Paul Ashworth, chief economist for North America at Capital Economics, stated that the Trump administration has several other ways to implement trade barriers, potentially resorting to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 or invoking Section 338 of the original Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Regarding refunds, Ashworth estimated the amount would reach approximately $120 billion, representing 0.5% of GDP. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who wrote the main dissenting opinion on the ruling, noted that "this process is likely to be a chaotic affair, as acknowledged in the oral arguments."February 21st - Ian Lingen, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, stated that market participants largely anticipated the Supreme Courts ruling, so the limited reaction in the U.S. interest rate market was not surprising. James Assy, Portfolio Manager at Marshall Investment Management, said the reaction has been quite mild so far. The market is unsure what to do. The real big question would have been any talk of refunds. I think this news is slightly bearish for U.S. Treasuries. This is a short-term negative for the budget, so it should be bad for Treasuries. But its really hard to see how this will actually work – its very complex.The German DAX 30 index closed up 231.37 points, or 0.92%, at 25249.35 on Friday, February 20th; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 63.16 points, or 0.59%, at 10690.20 on Friday, February 20th; and the French CAC 40 index closed up 116.71 points, or 1.39%, at 8515.49 on Friday, February 20th; the Euro... The Stoxx 50 index closed up 70.58 points, or 1.16%, at 6130.20 on Friday, February 20; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 162.72 points, or 0.90%, at 18180.22 on Friday, February 20; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 675.28 points, or 1.47%, at 46469.50 on Friday, February 20.The Federation of German Industries (BDI) stated (regarding the US Supreme Courts tariff ruling) that, with Berlins support, the EU should promptly engage with the US to clarify the impact of the current ruling on the EU-US trade agreement.The World Trade Organization declined to comment on the U.S. Tariff Courts ruling.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

USD:CAD.png 

 

Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.