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On June 4th, a spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on June 3rd that its forces did not fire on the Kuwait airport target. The spokesperson claimed that the damage to the Kuwait airport terminal was caused by a malfunction of the US Patriot air defense missile system, whose missiles, after failing to intercept Iranian missiles, mistakenly landed on the terminal.On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that employment was virtually unchanged in 11 districts, while one district saw slight growth. Manufacturing hiring was strongest in several districts, driven by defense-related business and growing demand for data centers. Wage growth generally remained moderate to moderate, largely in line with inflation. However, districts reported needing to adjust for wage and cost-of-living increases more frequently to cope with rising fuel and other household cost pressures. Most districts described a cautious hiring and laying-off environment, with employees increasingly reluctant to change jobs due to economic uncertainty. Hiring remained cautious, focusing primarily on key positions or filling gaps in staff. Demand in the professional services sector was mixed, partly reflecting the impact of technological and operational changes.On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that economic activity grew at a moderate to moderate pace in ten of the twelve Fed districts, declined slightly in one district, and remained unchanged in one district. Consumer spending varied across districts, with spending disparities between income groups widening as cost pressures increased. High-income households were relatively robust and less sensitive to price increases; middle-income households were described as "saving as much as possible before deciding to spend"; while low-income consumers faced greater financial pressure. Overall, reports indicated increased credit card usage, decreased retail spending, and stronger demand for necessities. Car dealers reported decreased demand for new cars due to costs and fuel expenses, while more people turned to used cars and hybrid vehicles. In contrast, manufacturing activity grew at a moderate to strong pace in nine districts, with only one district reporting a slight decline from the previous period. Banking conditions remained stable in most districts; however, in several districts, delinquencies on mortgages, consumer loans, and agricultural loans increased. Overall, business expectations for the next six months show little change in anticipated growth, as higher uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending have impacted market sentiment.June 4th - The Federal Reserve stated that economic activity in most parts of the United States has grown at a moderate pace in recent weeks, while employment has remained largely unchanged. In its latest Beige Book, the Fed indicated that inflation levels in most Fed districts were higher than in the previous report, primarily due to the impact of the Middle East wars on energy prices. Since the outbreak of the war with Iran, rising energy prices have raised concerns about sustained inflation, leading more policymakers to believe they need to retain all policy options, including a tighter monetary policy. However, many officials stated that current interest rate conditions remain favorable.The Central Bank of Tunisia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7%.

Near 1.3600, USD/CAD Meets Difficult Resistance Amid a Weak USD Index and Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Mar 29, 2023 14:32

USD:CAD.png 

 

Near 1.3600, the USD/CAD pair encountered resistance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears vulnerable to further losses below 102.40, the Canadian dollar appears to have a sturdy downside bias. The USD Index has found support near 102.40, but a retracement is likely as risk appetite improves.

 

The USD Index is under intense pressure as a result of the decline in U.S. banking concerns. As reported by Reuters, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that "at this time" there is no need for universal insurance on all bank deposits, reviving concerns of a banking crisis in the United States.

 

Tuesday's S&P500 futures remained predominantly constrained in response to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's remarks. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain a consistent tone when announcing its interest rate decision at its May monetary policy meeting, despite the optimistic market sentiment.

 

In the interim, demand for U.S. government bonds remained low due to investors' expectation that the nation will emerge from its banking crisis sooner. This led to a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.57 percent.

 

According to Bloomberg, the Canadian Dollar remained volatile on Tuesday after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's announcement that dividends received by financial institutions from holding domestic equities will be considered business income. This will generate billions in tax revenue from banks and insurance firms that receive dividends from Canadian corporations.

 

Due to a weakening US Dollar and expectations of additional sanctions against Russia, the price of oil has risen to close to $74.00 on the energy front. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory data will be attentively monitored for additional guidance. As anticipated, the US EIA will report an increase of 0.187 million barrels in oil stocks for the week ending March 24.

 

Notably, Canada is the leading oil exporter to the United States, and rising crude prices would strengthen the Canadian Dollar further.