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BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.

As Australian Retail Sales Continue To Underperform Expectations, AUD/JPY Corrects To Near 87.20

Alina Haynes

Mar 28, 2023 15:36

AUD:JPY.png 

 

The AUD/JPY pair has declined to near 87.20 as a consequence of weaker Retail Sales data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The increase in economic data was 0.2%, which was less than the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the previous release of 1.9%. A weaker-than-anticipated retail demand suggests that households are unable to compensate for the impact of inflated products with their present purchasing power.

 

The headline may suggest weakening retail demand, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is working to restrict elevated inflation, is ecstatic.

 

This week, the Australian Dollar is expected to remain in focus prior to the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb) data on Wednesday. According to projections, the inflation rate will decline from 7.4% to 7.1%.

 

There is evidence that Australia's inflation rate has begun to decline, as stated by the RBA's policymakers. As the present monetary policy is already sufficiently restrictive to control persistent inflation, the RBA could conclude its policy-tightening process at the April monetary meeting.

 

In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) Manufacturing PMI for China will be the most influential factor for the Australian Dollar. China's economy is now focused on the road to economic recovery, following the elimination of pandemic controls. Consequently, a respectable performance is anticipated within the manufacturing industry. Australia is China's most important trading partner, and an increase in the Chinese PMI will also boost the Australian Dollar.

 

Haruhiko Kuroda, the former governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will continue to be the center of attention in Tokyo. BoJ Kuroda may reaffirm the continuation of ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate earnings and the economy's overall demand.