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Futures market data from September 4th indicated that precious metals have been volatile, influenced by multiple factors, including the independence of the Federal Reserve, US tariffs, and geopolitical dynamics. Trumps recent dismissal of a Fed governor has undermined market confidence in the Feds monetary policy independence. The ruling that Trumps tariffs were illegal has increased uncertainty in financial markets. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, US tariffs and trade policies are slowly driving up inflationary pressures, with tariff costs gradually being passed on to consumers. PCE inflation data is in line with market expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs is manageable. While the market still anticipates a high probability of a September rate cut, caution remains regarding the risk of higher-than-expected inflation in the second half of the year. The continued expansion of US debt has raised international concerns about US fiscal sustainability. Coupled with continued central bank gold buying and strong investment in gold and silver ETFs, precious metals are increasingly becoming a safe-haven asset for investors long-term allocations. Their financial and safe-haven attributes provide long-term support for their prices. We anticipate a volatile upward trend, and recommend a medium- to long-term long position.The worlds largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trusts holdings decreased by 85.08 tons from the previous day, and the current holdings are 15,281.4 tons.Foreign investors bought 397.4 billion yen of Japanese bonds in the week ending August 29, compared with -106 billion yen in the previous week.Japan bought 481.8 billion yen of foreign stocks in the week ending August 29, compared with -306.1 billion yen in the previous week.Japan bought 141.98 billion yen in foreign bonds in the week ending August 29, compared with -16.72 billion yen in the previous week.

USD/CAD Bears are nearing multi-month support close to $1.3470

Alina Haynes

Mar 31, 2023 11:49

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USD/CAD sellers eye 1.3520-25 after falling to the lowest levels since February 22 as markets become volatile on Friday ahead of the release of crucial US inflation data. As a result, during the five-day losing sequence, the Loonie duo demonstrates modest losses.

 

However, the successful break below the 50-day moving average and the bearish MACD signals maintain optimism among sellers. The absence of a fatigued RSI (14) line strengthens the bearish bias.

 

Notably, a rising support line from early June 2022, which was near 1.3475 at the time of publication, appears to be a formidable obstacle for USD/CAD bears to surmount. In addition to emphasizing the significance of the 1.3475 level, the decline of the RSI below the 50 level suggests that purchasing near the key support line is likely.

 

The 200-day moving average and an ascending trend line from mid-November 2022 near 1.3375 and 1.3295 could challenge the bears if the Loonie pair breaches the 1.3475 support level.

 

To convince short-term USD/CAD investors, recovery advances require confirmation from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance of 1.3545.

 

However, the mid-month low around 1.3650-55 and December 2022 highs around 1.3705 can challenge the Loonie pair's further ascent before underscoring the previous yearly high of 1.3977.


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