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The SC crude oil futures contract hit its daily limit again, rising 13.99% to 641.1 yuan per barrel, after previously narrowing its gains to 5.64%.On March 4th, a research team at Natixis stated that under their baseline scenario, oil prices are likely to trade around $80 per barrel in the short term due to Irans limited ability to continue disrupting Middle Eastern oil flows. The team noted that current US and Israeli military actions against Iran are primarily focused on military and air transport facilities. Although Iran attacked a Saudi oil refinery and a Qatari liquefied natural gas facility earlier this week, there has been no substantial disruption to overall energy supplies. The report stated, "There are currently no significant disruptions to oil supply, only short-term disturbances in transport via the Strait of Hormuz."Iranian Foreign Ministry: German advisors are pressuring EU countries to conspire in acts of aggression against us.On March 4th, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if the economic and price outlook aligns with its expectations, while closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict. Speaking in parliament, Ueda said that developments in the Middle East could significantly impact the global and Japanese economies through rising energy costs and financial market volatility. "Rising oil prices will worsen Japans terms of trade and drag down the economy, which in turn could put downward pressure on underlying inflation." However, he added that if oil price increases continue, they could also push up underlying inflation by raising medium- to long-term inflation expectations for households and businesses. When asked about the recent depreciation of the yen, he said the Bank of Japan is analyzing "very cautiously" how exchange rate fluctuations will affect current and future price trends.On March 4th, Daiwa Research reported that it expects Baidus (09888.HK) Kunlun Chip IPO valuation to be higher than its peers due to its larger revenue scale and better profitability. Currently, Kunlun Chip derives most of its revenue from external demand, with major clients including Tencent and a large telecommunications operator. Management stated that chip production capacity constraints are not a short-term concern for the company, as Kunlun Chip has secured sufficient supply to support development over the next two years. The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating on Baidu with a target price of HK$175 and maintained its earnings forecasts for this year and next. Recent catalysts include the Kunlun Chip listing and details of the 2026 dividend plan.

Near 0.9140, USD/CHF meets resistance as the USD Index resumes its decline

Alina Haynes

Mar 31, 2023 11:53

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Near 0.9140 during the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair confronted formidable resistance. It is anticipated that the Swiss Franc will decline to a new two-week low after falling below 0.9120. Following a brief retracement near 102.25, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined, accelerating the acceleration of adverse speculations on the major currency. The USD Index is anticipated to decline below its immediate support of 102.0.

 

As investors anticipate that Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell will not raise interest rates at the May monetary policy meeting in 2023, USD Index adverse speculations are increasing. Undoubtedly, fears of a U.S. banking system crisis have diminished significantly, but U.S. institutions will continue to maintain exceedingly stringent credit conditions to prevent additional casualties. Moreover, the impact of US financial anxiety has not yet been realized.

 

More than 52% of forecasts from CME Fedwatch favor the Fed maintaining its present monetary policy stance at its May meeting.

 

Meanwhile, S&P500 futures carry optimism from Thursday forward. Futures on the S&P 500 index have extended their gains during the Asian session, indicating an increase in market participants' risk appetite. In the absence of clarity regarding the future of monetary policy, there is a decline in the demand for U.S. government bonds.

 

The issuance of Real Retail Sales (Feb) data for the Swiss Franc is anticipated by investors. The annual retail sales data is projected to increase by 1.9%, compared to a decrease of 2.2%, which would strengthen the sustainability of inflationary pressures. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is committed to minimizing inflation through future rate hikes.

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