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Morgan Stanley: No longer expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in 2025.On September 19th, Francesco Pesole of ING Bank stated in a report that Frances political turmoil has yet to have a significant impact on the euro, and this situation is expected to continue. He noted that the risk of a further widening of the yield spread between French and German government bonds remains. However, "what matters most for the euro is the speed of these adjustments, and so far we do not expect any substantial foreign exchange spillovers."The onshore RMB closed at 7.1125 against the US dollar at 16:30 on September 19, down 46 points from the previous trading day.UBS: No longer expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in 2025.On September 19th, UK public sector borrowing increased significantly in August, placing additional pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves ahead of the November budget. Joe Nellis, an economic advisor at the MHA, noted, "The Chancellor will have to make some extremely difficult, yet crucial, decisions in the budget if fiscal stability is to be maintained." He stated in a report that the UKs larger-than-expected deficit was primarily due to high interest costs on inflation-linked bonds—the 30-year government bond yield hit a nearly 30-year high in August. Increased welfare spending and an upward revision to public sector wage bills also contributed. Nellis stated that with the economy continuing to weaken and lacking stable, sustained growth, the governments increased borrowing is further constricting its fiscal space ahead of the budget.

Extends Recovery Off 100-HMA Towards Critical Resistance at 0.9230 in USD/CHF Price Analysis

Daniel Rogers

Mar 30, 2023 16:02

USD:CHF.png 

 

Following yesterday's retreat, USD/CHF investors are back at the table on Thursday morning as the currency pair's price continues to rise around 0.9200. Consequently, the Swiss currency pair recovers from the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA) and validates the upwardly sloping RSI (14) line, indicating that the market is not overbought.

 

As a result, USD/CHF investors should see further gains. A confluence of an ascending trend line from last Friday and a three-week-old descending resistance line near 0.9230 appears to be an insurmountable barrier for pair buyers to overcome before regaining control.

 

If USD/CHF buyers are able to maintain control above 0.9230, an advance to 0.9300 and the monthly high near 0.9340 cannot be ruled out. A decisive break above 0.9340, however, would not hesitate to challenge the monthly high near 0.9440.

 

In contrast, the 100-HMA level surrounding 0.9180 restricts the immediate downside of the USD/CHF price, and a breach of this level could drive prices toward a rising support line from March 13, close to 0.9150.

 

Notably, the USD/CHF pair's susceptibility beyond 0.9150 makes it susceptible to testing the monthly low around 0.9070.

 

Overall, the USD/CHF pair is likely to rise further, but confirmation of the uptrend is needed at 0.9230.