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On May 31, the Colombian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on May 30, local time, stating that in response to the Ecuadorian governments earlier announcement that it would stop imposing a "safety tax" on Colombian goods, Colombia would lift its trade retaliatory measures against Ecuador and promote the normalization of bilateral economic and trade relations.May 31 - A Bloomberg survey of economists median forecast indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3% in May, while nonfarm payrolls will increase by 89,000. This increase would push the three-month average job growth rate to its highest level in over a year, sparking discussions about a continued acceleration in hiring. Forecasters expect the healthcare sector to maintain its strong momentum, while cyclical sectors such as construction, leisure, and hospitality will also see a recovery, with demand in these sectors likely benefiting from the warm weather of the past month. Manufacturing employment may also be boosted as consumers stockpile goods in anticipation of potential price increases following a potential conflict with Iran.On May 31, according to Iranian state television, Saeed Ajorlou, a member of Irans Media Committee, stated on Saturday that Tehran had not yet approved the final draft of the proposed agreement with the United States, and warned that Iran might withdraw from the agreement if the US failed to fulfill its commitments. In an interview, Ajorlou said that to his knowledge, as of Friday evening, the final text had not been approved, but the differences between the two sides were minimal. He stated, "If the final text is approved, we will enter a 60-day phase of detailed consultations," adding that each of the 14 articles of the agreement contains annexes that require further negotiation. Ajorlou emphasized that the implementation mechanism is more important than the text itself, especially regarding the acquisition of Iranian assets and the fulfillment of commitments by the other side. He stated that the proposed agreement includes a clause allowing Iran to withdraw from the agreement if the other side fails to fulfill its commitments. He indicated that Iran could withdraw from the agreement if violations occur, including breaches of the ceasefire agreement, failure to grant access to Iranian funds, or failure to lift the naval blockade. He added that if commitments are not fulfilled in the initial phase, Iran will reconsider its participation in the proposed 60-day negotiations.The Indian government stated that the current consumption tax rates for gasoline and diesel consumed domestically will remain unchanged.On May 31, local time, Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on May 30 that the naval blockade against Iran “will eventually end, whether through negotiations or military action.”

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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