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Futures News, September 14th: Crude oil prices were volatile over the weekend, and domestic fuel oil transactions were sluggish at high levels, with trading slightly declining. However, the surge in the oil market at the open provided some support for oil prices. Industry players remained cautious, and it is expected that the focus of domestic fuel oil negotiations today will be on stabilization after the weekends decline, with most transactions driven by immediate needs.Oil pipeline closures, meeting postponements, ship attacks: A quick overview of pre-market crude oil prices converted between domestic and international markets in one chart.On September 14th, it was learned from industry sources that the Securities Association of China recently issued a notice to all securities companies, soliciting industry opinions on the "Implementation Rules for Integrity Practice of Securities Business Institutions and Their Staff (Revised Draft for Public Comment)," with a feedback deadline of September 29th. Article 13 clarifies the salary recovery and deduction mechanism, stipulating that once an institution confirms that a staff member has violated integrity practices, it can recover and deduct the salary in accordance with the labor contract and company policy. A positive incentive mechanism will also be established simultaneously, giving priority to those who proactively resist the transfer of benefits and report significant integrity risks in performance evaluations and promotions. This combination of recovery and incentives creates a more complete closed-loop constraint mechanism.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum was down 0.10% and spot palladium was down 0.16%.On September 14th, a research report from CICC stated that looking ahead to the year, we believe oil prices may have a "supply floor" and a "demand ceiling." On the one hand, the recovery of Middle Eastern crude oil production since the third quarter has fallen short of expectations, and the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions will prompt the market to reassess the sustainability of Middle Eastern crude oil supply losses, supporting a rise in the "supply floor" for oil prices. On the other hand, domestic demand remains weak, and the summer demand recovery should not be linearly extrapolated; a "demand ceiling" may emerge after oil prices break through $100. Based on the above, we have raised our 4Q26 Brent crude oil price forecast to $85/barrel (from $80/barrel in June) to reflect a more sustained supply gap and lower inventory levels. In the refined oil market, short-term increases in oil prices and freight rates are impacting refining margins in Europe and Asia, and the crack spreads for gasoline and other refined oil products are under pressure to decline from their high levels. In contrast, we suggest paying attention to the structural shortage and resilience of crack spreads in the overseas diesel market.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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