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On August 29th, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Warshs speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Regarding forward guidance, Warsh said what the market expected him to say: he doesnt believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this didnt stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Warsh stated that combating inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in detail, but he also added that he was confident core inflation was moving towards the Feds target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market expected. During Warshs Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced the September Fed decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to approximately 50%. Before the September Fed meeting, there will be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other minor data releases. Under the new chairman, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have consistently missed expectations and by a large margin, any further weakening could severely undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.On August 29th, according to multiple foreign media reports, on August 28th local time, Chinese chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (CXMT) filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Defense, demanding its removal from a blacklist. According to Bloomberg, CXMT stated that its chips are designed for civilian and commercial use, not military purposes, and claimed it was wrongly blacklisted. The lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, with U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegses listed as a defendant. In a statement released after filing the lawsuit, CXMT stated that the company is not a military enterprise and that its reputation and business interests have continued to suffer since it was first blacklisted in January 2025. The company added that this action was taken to protect its business interests. According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense stated in a statement that, according to policy, the Department of Defense does not comment on pending or ongoing litigation.August 29th - The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo (Big Data Expo) is currently being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, a representative from the National Data Administration stated at the "Data and Computing Integration Driving the Future" exchange event that the computing power network, water network, new power grid, next-generation communication network, urban underground pipe network, and logistics network form a deeply coupled, mutually empowering, and collaboratively supporting organic whole. It was explained that the computing power network, acting as the "brain," assists in the intelligent scheduling of new power grids and the consumption of new energy; collaborates with the next-generation communication network to promote data flow, model training, and application innovation; empowers water networks to achieve accurate forecasting of watershed water conditions and dynamic allocation of water resources; supports urban underground pipe networks to drive real-time monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response for lifeline projects such as gas, drainage, and heating; and connects with the logistics network to promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire supply chain. The latest data released at the conference shows that as of the end of July, the total scale of intelligent computing nationwide reached 2.45 million PFLOPS (FP16), and the eight national computing power hubs and three computing-electricity collaborative development zones have built intelligent computing scales, accounting for over 85% of the national total.August 29th – The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo is being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, an official from the National Data Administration stated at the expo that the rapid application of big data models across various industries is driving a rapid increase in the volume of word token calls in my country, resulting in explosive market demand. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration, stated at a word token-themed exchange activity that the stronger the models comprehensive capabilities, the higher the efficiency of word token production, and the better the logic, accuracy, and quality of the output content. Word tokens provide an important benchmark for the measurement, pricing, transaction, and settlement of artificial intelligence services. Currently, the word token industry chain has gathered diverse entities such as computing power leasing companies, model manufacturers, data service providers, and professional technical service institutions, and different types of "word token factories" have evolved in practice.The Iranian government stated that it is committed to resolutely resisting US sanctions, and that diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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