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On May 10, UN Secretary-General António Guterres spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, issued a statement on May 9, welcoming the announcement by Russia and Ukraine of a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 and plans for a large-scale prisoner exchange. The statement said the Secretary-General reiterated his call for an immediate, comprehensive, unconditional, and lasting ceasefire as a first step toward achieving a just, sustainable, and comprehensive peace, consistent with the UN Charter, international law, and relevant UN resolutions. The statement added that Guterres appreciated the efforts made by the United States to facilitate the agreement and fully supported its implementation.On May 9th, Hong Kong Stock Exchange data showed that the total market capitalization of the securities market reached HK$48 trillion at the end of April 2026, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The average daily turnover in April 2026 was HK$253.5 billion. The average daily turnover for the first four months of 2026 was HK$271.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The average daily turnover of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the first four months of 2026 was HK$39.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. There were 49 new listed companies in the first four months of 2026, a 158% increase compared to 19 in the same period last year. The total funds raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first four months of 2026 amounted to HK$151.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 604%.On May 9th, the National Healthcare Security Administration released the "Work Plan for Adjusting the National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance and Work Injury Insurance Drug Catalog and the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Catalog in 2026 (Draft for Public Comment)" for public comment.On May 9th, Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on social media that Japan may send government officials to Russia as early as the end of May to maintain communication channels and provide support to its companies still operating in Russia. METI stated that it is necessary to protect the assets of Japanese companies remaining in Russia, and to support these efforts, the Japanese government has been maintaining government-level communication with Russia and has made relevant requests.May 9th - As the war with Iran disrupts oil transport in the Persian Gulf, global oil inventories are being depleted at a record rate, eroding the buffers originally intended to withstand supply shocks. The rapid shrinking of inventories means the risk of more extreme price spikes and supply shortages is looming. With the Strait of Hormuz nearing closure for two months, governments and industries have fewer options to cope with a supply loss of over 1 billion barrels. The sharp depletion of inventories also means that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply disruptions for a longer period. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1st and April 25th, far exceeding previous peaks in quarterly inventory declines compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounted for nearly 60% of the decline, with the remainder being refined products. Crucially, the oil system also needs to set a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase, stated that this means that the untouchable safety stock will be reached before inventories truly bottom out.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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