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Germanys final manufacturing PMI for June was 50.3, in line with expectations and the previous reading of 50.Frances final manufacturing PMI for June was 51.2, below the expected 50.7 and the previous reading of 50.7.July 1st - Ireland officially assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union on July 1st, local time, for a six-month term. The Irish governments presidency plan indicates that during its six-month term, it will advance the EU policy agenda around the three pillars of competitiveness, values, and security, focusing on enhancing EU competitiveness, strengthening security and resilience, advancing negotiations on the next multi-year fiscal framework, and continuing to support key EU initiatives such as digital and green transformation.July 1st Futures News: On July 1st, the Shanghai Futures Exchanges energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 273,189 tons, an increase of 6,696 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 1,557 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 6,640 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 51,160 tons. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 15,910 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 18,470 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 2,961,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.Italys manufacturing PMI for June was 52.2, below the expected 52.4 and the previous reading of 52.9.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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