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June 15th - The Bank of England will hold its interest rate decision on Thursday. The meeting is expected to see a majority vote to keep rates unchanged, but it is anticipated to reflect the Monetary Policy Committees growing concerns about the inflation risks posed by the prolonged energy crisis. Following calls from senior officials, including Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Briden, for caution before addressing rising inflation risks, the market widely expects the bank to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. "The momentum in the labor market has cooled significantly," said Hetal Mehta, an economist at St Jamess Place. "I dont think theres enough impetus for a rate hike at the moment." However, at least two rate setters—Chief Economist Peale and Monetary Policy Committee member Green—have hinted at calling for an immediate rate hike. Another Monetary Policy Committee member, Mann, stated that if the energy crisis worsens, a rate increase at some point cannot be ruled out.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds fell 3.5 basis points to 3.760%.June 15th - It was learned today (June 15th) from the my country National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) that Chinese scientists have achieved a key breakthrough in the field of stable isotope enrichment, successfully achieving for the first time the independent mass production of silicon-28 isotopes with an abundance exceeding 99.99%, with key product indicators reaching international advanced levels. This marks a substantial step forward for my country in building an independent, controllable, collaborative, and efficient stable isotope industry structure.On June 15th, in response to being summoned for talks by the State Administration for Market Regulation, Sams Club China stated, "Recently, we accepted the guidance and talks from the market supervision department. We fully acknowledge, deeply reflect upon, and sincerely accept the issues and rectification requirements pointed out by the regulatory department during the talks. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience and trouble caused to our members." Sams Club China further stated, "Currently, the company has established a special rectification working group led by management, and immediately launched a comprehensive self-inspection and rectification campaign across all channels and the entire supply chain. We will strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations and regulatory requirements, comprehensively optimize food safety management and product quality control, strictly adhere to the bottom line of food safety, and improve the member experience. We will regularly report the rectification progress to the regulatory department and actively accept supervision from all sectors of society. We once again thank the regulatory department for its supervision and guidance, and thank our members for their trust and support."On June 15th, former Bank of Japan chief economist Seisaku Kameda stated on Monday that the US-Iran peace agreement is unlikely to change the Bank of Japans expectation of two interest rate hikes this year. With inflationary pressures intensifying, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1% on Tuesday. Kameda stated that this would have been done in April had the Middle East war not broken out. He indicated that if the peace agreement facilitates the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it might alleviate some of the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates faster than expected to curb inflation. "However, this will not change the Bank of Japans plan to normalize monetary policy by raising interest rates approximately twice a year, pushing up the still low real borrowing costs," Kameda said. He pointed out that after the June rate hike, the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates again in October or December. Furthermore, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the June meeting due to treatment for an infectious liver cyst in the hospital. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will preside over the press conference on his behalf. Seisaku Kameda stated that Shinichi Uchida is expected to reiterate the Bank of Japans determination to continue raising interest rates, but given the continued uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, he will avoid giving a clear indication of the timing of the next rate hike.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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