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Federal Reserves Goolsby: Tariffs and war-related price increases pose challenges to the Federal Reserve.In a joint statement, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Sweden stated that the new common EU loan is not a solution to the budget deficit. 1. According to Mysteel statistics, as of this week (August 27), the spot inventory of lithium ore from 33 sample lithium ore traders was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to last week, of which the available inventory was 102,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to last week. 2. According to Longzhong Informations production cost calculation model, the average weekly profit for float glass using natural gas as fuel was -164.02 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50 yuan/ton compared to last week; the average weekly profit for float glass using coal as fuel was -87.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47 yuan/ton compared to last week; and the average weekly profit for float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was -216.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.64 yuan/ton compared to last week. 3. According to Mutian Technology, on August 23, affected by the heavy rainfall of Typhoon Zitan, the sugarcane area under the jurisdiction of Daxin Sugar Company suffered from flooding, with some sugarcane fields submerged and sugarcane lodging and other damage. 4. Market news: Russia has indicated it may retaliate against the UK for its support of Kyiv, targeting British military objectives both inside and outside Ukraine. 5. Zhang Wenbin, Head of China Market Development at the World Platinum Investment Council, believes the logic of a long-term platinum supply shortage remains unchanged. Considering limited new mining capacity and resilient demand throughout 2026, the market will still face a supply-demand gap of 9.2 tons. Global visible platinum inventories are at historically low levels. Before 2029, platinum will maintain an average annual supply-demand gap of approximately 19 tons. 6. Data from Enterprise Singapore (ESG) shows that as of the week ending August 26, Singapore fuel oil inventories rose by 817,000 barrels to a three-week high of 19.24 million barrels. Singapore light distillate inventories rose by 539,000 barrels to a two-week high of 11.515 million barrels. Singapore middle distillate inventories increased by 153,000 barrels to a two-week high of 8.427 million barrels. 7. According to CCTV News, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about high-level interactions between China and the US. Lin Jian responded that both sides are maintaining communication regarding arrangements for interactions between their leaders this year. 8. At a regular press conference held on the 27th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Huang Ling, in response to a question about the US government considering imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on goods imported from China, said that the USs initiation of Section 301 investigations against 16 economies, including China, under the pretext of "overcapacity," politicizes trade issues and is a typical example of unilateralism and protectionism, which China firmly opposes. We will continue to closely monitor and comprehensively assess subsequent US actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures. 9. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 27, 2026, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 74.049 million weight boxes, a decrease of 365,000 weight boxes compared to the previous period (-0.49%), and an increase of 18.35% year-on-year. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to the previous period. 10. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending August 27, rebar production was 1.7308 million tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous week, a drop of 4.05%; rebar mill inventory was 1.6333 million tons, a decrease of 148,200 tons from the previous week, a drop of 8.32%; rebar social inventory was 5.1132 million tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.31%; and rebar apparent demand was 1.8128 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons from the previous week, a drop of 7.59%. 11. According to foreign media reports, traders said that approximately 7 to 8 million barrels of oil are currently being shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz daily, higher than the approximately 4 million barrels per day in mid-July, equivalent to about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Vortexa stated on Monday that oil flows through the waterway are approaching 10 million barrels per day. 12. As of August 27, methanol inventory at East China ports was 381,400 tons, down from 382,700 tons on August 20, a decrease of 1,300 tons. 13. Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid stated that with inflation persistently above the Feds 2% target, the current interest rate level has not dampened the US economy. Schmid said, "For me, I think short-term interest rates are probably on the loose side. So, we still have work to do."Federal Reserves Goolsby: We are trying to figure out whether the inflation shock will continue.On August 27th, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that the risks to future oil and gas prices remain high due to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia. The ECB meeting minutes released on Thursday showed that although current oil prices are "still well below recent highs" and the futures price curve is weakening, "oil prices remained well above pre-war levels throughout the forecast period, indicating continued upward pressure on oil prices and that risks remain skewed to the upside." Furthermore, the ECB noted that the recent decline in oil prices "has not eased the medium-term inflation path reflected in market pricing," adding that "inflation expectations remain anchored." The ECB reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability and its intention to "act promptly" to achieve its medium-term inflation target of 2%.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.