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The preliminary reading of Frances June CPI will be released in ten minutes.On June 30, Wang Yifei, spokesperson for the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated at a CCPIT press conference that in May 2026, the CCPIT system nationwide issued a total of 717,000 certificates of origin, ATA Carnets, and commercial certificates, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.14%. Among these, the value of non-preferential certificates of origin issued by the CCPIT system nationwide reached US$30.256 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.36%; the number of certificates issued was 357,200, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%. The value of preferential certificates of origin issued by the CCPIT system nationwide reached US$11.066 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.89%; the number of certificates issued was 310,800, a year-on-year increase of 32.26%. "The continued substantial increase in the value of certificates of origin issued by the national trade promotion system fully reflects the strong performance of my countrys foreign trade imports and exports, maintaining a stable growth trend overall. At the same time, it also reflects my countrys active efforts to deepen pragmatic cooperation with global economic and trade partners, the growing circle of friends of foreign trade enterprises, and the competitive innovation of my countrys foreign trade products and business models, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality," said Wang Yifei.Gold prices declined on June 30th, poised for their biggest monthly drop since October 2008. Quarterly, gold is also expected to record its first decline since 2024, with the largest drop since the second quarter of 2013. While the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, the market is now more concerned about the extent to which the US will try to control inflation. Marex analyst Edward Meir stated that the current combination of high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar has suppressed the usual reasons supporting gold price increases. OCBC precious metals strategist Christopher Wong pointed out that gold bulls need to see at least one turning point—a decline in real yields, a weaker dollar, or a significant fading of market expectations regarding a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Until then, the rebound in gold prices is unlikely to be sustainable, and it is more likely to fluctuate and consolidate below previous highs.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: Oil price futures curves indicate that oil prices will remain at high levels in the coming years, which means that economic costs will rise.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 1.355%.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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