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Polish central bank governor: Poland is more likely to raise interest rates than lower them.July 14th - US small business confidence improved in June, but the percentage of business owners who considered inflation the "single most important issue" rose to its highest level in nearly two years, while more businesses reported raising average selling prices. Data released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed that the Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4 in June, close to the indexs 52-year average of 98.0. The uncertainty index in the survey fell 2 points to 89, but remains significantly higher than the historical average of 68. Improved business confidence and reduced uncertainty may reflect a temporary drop in gasoline prices following the fragile ceasefire reached between the US and Iran. However, the ceasefire broke down last week after attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering military strikes between the two countries. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated, "The current economic environment brings both positive changes for small business owners and ongoing challenges. Lower fuel costs provide welcome relief for both businesses and consumers, and businesses expect the operating environment to improve over the next six months."The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reported that a 4.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Sumbah region of Indonesia at a depth of 3.0 kilometers.Syrian Foreign Ministry: Condemns Irans attack on two UAE oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.On July 14th, a breakthrough in power transmission line inspection technology was achieved in the remote mountains of Jianshui County, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Drones autonomously inspected power transmission lines directly connected to satellites, even without 4G or 5G signals or ground-based differential positioning assistance. This operation, relying on a self-developed system, successfully established a direct signal channel between the ground station, satellite, and drone, overcoming the challenge of inspection in signal-free areas with practical accuracy. Project leader Li Bingchen explained that this technology breaks the previous limitation that inspection drones had to be connected via remote controllers to fly, enabling autonomous inspection even in signal-free areas. Approximately 4,500 kilometers of power transmission lines in Yunnan are located in mountainous areas without signal coverage; with this technology, at least 90% of these areas can now be automatically inspected by drones.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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