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On September 5th, a new assessment report released by US intelligence agencies indicated that more than six months after the US military action against Iran, Iran has become "more confident" in its ability to strike US targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue its confrontation with the US, at least until the US midterm elections in November. According to US sources on September 4th, several US officials, after reviewing the latest intelligence assessment report, disclosed that the report shows that after months of fighting, Iran has a clearer understanding of its own "military strength" and is more convinced of the importance of the Strait of Hormuz. It is understood that, currently, although Iran is under dual military and economic pressure from the US, there is no indication that Iran intends to reach any form of agreement with the US. If Iran is attacked again, its reaction may be similar to before, namely, retaliating against US military bases and other targets in the Middle East. Some US officials believe that Iran may be trying to delay the war at least until the US midterm elections in November, and that Iran believes the US military is unable to launch a large-scale strike due to depleted weapons stockpiles.September 5th - According to Daqing Oilfield, as of August 31st, the Maokou Formation in the Sichuan-Chongqing exploration area of Daqing Oilfield has produced a cumulative total of 1.001 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2026, breaking the 1 billion cubic meter mark for the first time. This marks a significant leap forward in the large-scale and efficient development of this formation, further strengthening my countrys stable oil and gas supply and ensuring supply during the winter.September 5 - A Chinese citizen trapped in a landslide-stricken area of Rasuwa, northern Nepal, was rescued on September 5 local time.On September 5, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi announced that a partial ceasefire had been reinstated around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant under IAEA mediation to facilitate repairs to damaged power lines and restore external power to the plant. The Zaporizhia plant lost connection to its last external power line on August 20 due to military activity and has since relied on emergency diesel generators to provide cooling power to its six reactors and spent fuel pool. The IAEA stated that the plants diesel reserves are dwindling, and if external power cannot be restored or more fuel cannot be delivered in time, the plant may face a complete power outage in the coming days. Under the temporary ceasefire, Ukrainian technicians will begin repairing the power lines after clearing mines from the affected area. IAEA personnel will monitor the repair process. Grossi stated that this is the seventh such temporary ceasefire he has brokered to reduce nuclear safety risks at the Zaporizhia plant since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a 4.4-magnitude earthquake struck 77 kilometers east-southeast of La Tirana, Chile, at a depth of 109.4 kilometers.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.