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On August 17th, Daiwa Securities economist Kento Minami stated that given the weak economic growth data released on Monday, the Japanese government is unlikely to announce a formal exit from deflation in the current fiscal year ending March 2027. The Sanae Takaichi government previously stated that it would closely assess whether the Japanese economy is strong enough to avoid falling back into deflation before formally announcing the end of deflation. The market is closely watching the timing of the governments announcement, as it could influence the governments attitude towards further tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Minami stated that the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are improving, and key indicators such as the inflation rate, output gap, and unit labor costs also suggest that the risk of Japan falling back into persistent deflation is low.Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.32%, German DAX futures rose 0.27%, French CAC40 futures rose 0.24%, and UK FTSE 100 futures rose 0.2%.Market research firm Origo Group: Swedish money market participants expect the five-year CPIF inflation rate to be 2.0% in August, compared with 2.1% in the July survey.August 17th - According to Irans Mehr News Agency, Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman Mohbi stated: "In hybrid warfare, the media is an integral part of the operational mechanism, and media professionals play the role of officers on this battlefield. Our media has performed admirably in this area; they arrived on the battlefield in a timely manner and successfully countered the enemys media offensive."Xiaomi Auto: Xiaomi SU7 series deliveries exceeded 500,000 units in 28.5 months.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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