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February 6th - Today (February 6th), the Hainan Provincial Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "zero tariff" policy for imported goods for consumption by residents within the Hainan Free Trade Port and to answer reporters questions. The press conference announced that the first batch of five duty-free shops for daily consumer goods will be opened in the three prefecture-level cities of Haikou, Sanya, and Danzhou, with each shop scheduled to open on February 11th, the Southern Lunar New Years Eve.February 6th - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is near its steepest level in over four years due to interest rate cuts and concerns about persistent inflation and fiscal deficits. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to as high as 73.7 basis points on Thursday, just slightly below the peak of 73.8 basis points reached in April, the highest level since January 2022. The spread widened on Thursday as signs of weakness in the U.S. job market prompted traders to increase their bets on further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this year. According to overnight index swaps, the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate before June (just one month after the end of its term) and will implement two to three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. Investors are speculating that President Trumps nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, despite his hawkish reputation, will still favor lower interest rates. Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac, said: “While the curve has shifted fairly horizontally, weak jobs data has created more downside risk for front-end yields. However, the curve has become steeper as comments from the Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee earlier this week suggested that supply increases could come earlier than expected in November.”The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred in Gerze County, Ngari Prefecture, Tibet Autonomous Region at 09:49 on February 6, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.February 6th - According to an official at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, major polluting companies in Japan are purchasing carbon credits on the exchanges voluntary market ahead of the launch of a mandatory carbon trading program. Natsuko Gunji, general manager of the exchanges carbon trading office, stated, "We are seeing huge market demand. Part of this demand is driven by companies anticipation of the GX-ETS launch," but some companies are also eager to cancel their credits this fiscal year to fulfill their climate commitments. Carbon credits for renewable energy power generation in Japan reached a high of 6,600 yen per tonne (approximately US$42.12) in February and April last year, and have since fallen by nearly a quarter. This price remains above the 4,300 yen allowance price ceiling proposed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry for the GX-ETS market in December.Commodity-themed LOFs on the exchange opened lower, with crude oil LOFs E Fund and Guotai Commodity LOF both falling by more than 2%, and resource LOFs, Huabao Oil & Gas LOF, Harvest Crude Oil LOF, and Guotou Resource LOF all falling by more than 1%.

As the BoJ ponders a YCC expansion, EUR/JPY continues to decline, falling below 142.60

Alina Haynes

Apr 06, 2023 11:52

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After plunging below 142.60 during the Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY pair's three-day losing trend was extended. Renewed rumors of an expansion of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) are exerting immense pressure on the cross.

 

The Japanese economy is experiencing gradual wage growth, and inflation is expected to respond to recent increases in crude oil prices. Analysts at Wells Fargo believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further modify its policy settings in the fourth quarter of 2022, and are inclined toward a meeting in October. They added that this timeframe is optimal for a smooth policy adjustment, as monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks should alleviate yield pressure.

 

In particular, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise the target yield for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from 0% to 0.25% and increase the tolerance interval surrounding this target to +/- 75 basis points.

 

Accelerating PMIs in the Eurozone provide support for the European Central Bank's sustained rate hikes. (ECB). S&P Global reported a Composite PMI of 53.7 on Wednesday, which was higher than the previous release of 52.0 but below expectations of 54.1, the highest level in the past ten months.

 

According to Reuters, S&P Global issued the following statement: "Manufacturing production increased slightly, but the service sector had the greatest impact on March's accelerated growth."

 

Wednesday, ECB policymaker Boris Vuji stated regarding interest rate forecasts, "The majority of the rate-hiking cycle has passed." He added, "We may require additional rate increases to address core inflation."