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On May 19th, Harumi Taguchi, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its policy rate from the current 0.75% to 1.0% in July, with further rate hikes in December and 2027, bringing the policy rate to 1.5%. Taguchi noted that if rising oil prices and a weaker yen exacerbate concerns about the second-round effects of inflation, the BOJ may raise rates further. Taguchi added that given the continued high oil prices driving up demand for the dollar, rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, and concerns about Japans fiscal expansion, the yen is unlikely to appreciate in the short term.On May 19th, according to Iranian sources, Iranian President Pezechzian, during a meeting with officials from the Ministry of Cooperation, Labor and Social Welfare, stated that economic and social problems should be addressed at their root through structural and sustainable planning. Pezechzian stated that those who lost their jobs during the war should not rely solely on unemployment insurance, but rather on creating sustainable employment opportunities. He also emphasized the need for targeted support programs to maintain existing jobs. Pezechzian further stated that controlling consumption and avoiding waste are "necessary measures at the national level" under the current circumstances, and that government agencies should play a leading role in related areas. Regarding electronic consumption vouchers, Pezechzian stated that priority should be given to low-income and vulnerable groups, and related support policies should aim to increase household purchasing power and alleviate the living pressures on low-income groups.Futures News, May 19th: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Energy and Chemical Warehouse Receipts and Changes: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 205,945 tons, down 1,930 tons from the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 957 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 6,560 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 47,160 tons. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 21,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 31,220 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 1,540 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.UK medium- and long-term government bond yields fell in early trading, by about 3-5 basis points.On May 19, according to reports from IRNA and Reuters, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi briefed a national conference on the current progress of negotiations with the United States and Irans response to the draft agreement proposed by the US. Gharibabadi stated that Irans recent proposals explicitly emphasized its right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, demanded an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade against Iran, the return and unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, compensation from the US for losses incurred in the war and for reconstruction efforts, the termination of all unilateral sanctions, and the withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran.

As the BoJ ponders a YCC expansion, EUR/JPY continues to decline, falling below 142.60

Alina Haynes

Apr 06, 2023 11:52

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After plunging below 142.60 during the Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY pair's three-day losing trend was extended. Renewed rumors of an expansion of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) are exerting immense pressure on the cross.

 

The Japanese economy is experiencing gradual wage growth, and inflation is expected to respond to recent increases in crude oil prices. Analysts at Wells Fargo believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further modify its policy settings in the fourth quarter of 2022, and are inclined toward a meeting in October. They added that this timeframe is optimal for a smooth policy adjustment, as monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks should alleviate yield pressure.

 

In particular, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise the target yield for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from 0% to 0.25% and increase the tolerance interval surrounding this target to +/- 75 basis points.

 

Accelerating PMIs in the Eurozone provide support for the European Central Bank's sustained rate hikes. (ECB). S&P Global reported a Composite PMI of 53.7 on Wednesday, which was higher than the previous release of 52.0 but below expectations of 54.1, the highest level in the past ten months.

 

According to Reuters, S&P Global issued the following statement: "Manufacturing production increased slightly, but the service sector had the greatest impact on March's accelerated growth."

 

Wednesday, ECB policymaker Boris Vuji stated regarding interest rate forecasts, "The majority of the rate-hiking cycle has passed." He added, "We may require additional rate increases to address core inflation."