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On March 19th, Nick Timiraos, a well-known mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, reported that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated he will continue to serve as Fed Chairman if a successor is not identified before his term ends on May 15th. This is his most direct statement to date regarding the upcoming leadership transition at the Fed. Powell further stated that he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as long as the Justice Departments investigation into him continues. Powell indicated he has not yet decided whether he will continue to serve on the Board if the investigation concludes and a successor is appointed. It is currently confirmed that Powell can serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until 2028 after his term as chairman ends. Powells decision has a significant impact on Trumps ability to restructure the Fed. If Powell remains on the Board, Trump will lose someone he could have personally appointed. Currently, three of the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors were appointed by Trump.On March 19th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that even with the impact of soaring energy prices due to the Iran war, the current U.S. economic situation is far from the "stagflation" of the 1970s. The current inflation rate is only one percentage point above the target level, and the unemployment rate remains low. Powell stated, "I would reserve the term stagflation for a more severe situation. We are not in that situation right now." He added, "We are currently facing some contradictions between our goals, and we are working to resolve this issue appropriately. It is a very tricky situation, but it is completely different from what we faced in the 1970s, a period I would only use the term stagflation to describe."On March 19th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a press conference that persistently high inflation in the services sector, excluding housing, is "frustrating." He said, "We havent seen any progress in this area." Meanwhile, tariffs have pushed up goods inflation. Powell stated, "Inflation (in the services sector) has been negative for many years and is now around 2%. Above-target inflation coupled with a weak labor market forces the Fed to strike a delicate balance between the two. We are currently in a difficult position."According to Axios: The Israeli Air Force struck more than five Iranian naval targets in the Caspian Sea.U.S. short-term interest rate futures indicate that traders are pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut this year by about 3.5 basis points, down to 17 basis points from before the meeting.

GBP/USD Attempts To Protect 1.2300 As Market Sentiment Remains Tenuous Due To Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Apr 03, 2023 14:15

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to defend its round-number support level at 1.2300. As a consequence of OPEC+'s announcement of additional oil production cuts, investors in the early Tokyo session discounted the impact of higher oil prices on the Cable. Concerns about global inflationary pressures have been reignited by the crude price increase. Therefore, it may be necessary for central banks to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time.

 

Following a series of favorable sessions last week, S&P500 futures reported significant losses during the Asian session, as higher oil prices will increase input costs for companies that rely on oil for transportation and manufacturing. The sentiment on the market has deteriorated, and risk-perceived assets have been punished.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting a minor correction after reaching a new weekly peak of 102.95. The impact of the deceleration in the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on the USD Index was mitigated by rekindled inflation expectations in the United States due to higher crude prices.

 

The US PCE Price Index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, which was below both the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the prior reading of 0.5%. In addition, the annual rate of US PCE inflation decreased to 4.6% from 4.7% in the previous report and the consensus estimate.

 

If inflation spikes due to elevated crude prices, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may contemplate additional rate hikes in May.

 

Increasing inflationary pressures on the front of the British Pound are causing the Bank of England more trouble. (BoE). As food prices continue to rise, retail price inflation has increased in the United Kingdom. Moreover, labor shortages continue to influence inflation expectations. However, BoE policymakers are optimistic that the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom will soon begin to fall sharply.