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Slovak Prime Minister: We aim to reach an agreement with EU partners on stopping Russian gas supplies and sanctions package by Tuesday.July 12, Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said that as the US government reaches an agreement with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea in the coming weeks, most investors seem to expect the United States to avoid raising tariffs. "This is the expectation that the market has formed," Saglimbene said. "If we dont get such an outcome, then I think if the White House does implement some aggressive tariff measures, the market volatility in the short term may increase."Ukraine said Russia launched 623 drones and missiles during the night.July 12, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 11th, US President Trump hinted that if Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons, he will support Israel in launching a new round of strikes against Iran. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently privately informed Trump that if Iran resumes the development of nuclear weapons, Israel will launch further military strikes against Iran. Trump responded that he was inclined to reach a diplomatic settlement with Iran, that is, to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, but he did not oppose Israels plan. The report also stated that a senior Israeli official revealed that Israel would not necessarily seek explicit approval from the United States on the issue of resuming strikes against Iran. However, considering that the United States seeks to maintain diplomatic ties with Iran, Israel may also face resistance from the United States.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Russia launched 597 drones and 26 missiles in its overnight attack on Ukraine on Saturday.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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