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January 27th - European car sales are projected to grow for the third consecutive year in 2025, driven by consumers opting for more affordable electric and hybrid models. Data released Tuesday by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (EASA) shows that European car sales rose 7.6% in December, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth and pushing total new car registrations up 2.4% to 13.3 million units for the year. While this is good news for the automotive industry, which has been struggling with tariffs and increased competition, sales are still about 15% lower than pre-pandemic levels. The overall growth was partly driven by a rebound in electric vehicle sales last year. Data shows that pure electric vehicle registrations surged 30%, accounting for about one-fifth of the overall market share. In the first half of 2025, consumers were hesitant due to market turmoil and economic uncertainty caused by Trumps tariff policies, only returning to the market in the second half as registrations continued to recover. Analyst Gillian Davis predicts that European car sales may climb again this year, thanks to a new round of subsidies and the launch of several new-generation models.January 27th - According to the Financial Times, sources revealed that the Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that its security guarantees will be contingent on Ukraine first agreeing to a peace agreement, which could potentially involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia. Two sources stated that the US has also hinted that if Ukraine agrees to withdraw its troops from the eastern regions it controls (as a price for peace with Russia), the US will commit to providing Ukraine with more weapons to bolster its peacetime military capabilities. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had hoped to sign a document with the US as early as this month regarding security guarantees and a post-war "prosperity plan," giving Kyiv leverage in future negotiations with Moscow. However, the current US signals indicate that its security commitments depend on a compromise with Russia. Ukrainian and European officials believe this US stance is an attempt to coerce Kyiv into accepting painful territorial concessions demanded by Moscow in any agreement.According to the Financial Times, British politicians are calling for a competition review of Netflixs (NFLX.O) acquisition of Warner Bros.The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that since the beginning of January, troops have captured 17 settlements in Ukraine.According to the Financial Times, the United States is linking security guarantees in Ukraine to a peace agreement that would cede territory.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

 USD:CAD.png

 

The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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