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Slovak Prime Minister: In view of the energy crisis, the EU should lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, restart the Friendship pipeline, and end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.On April 4th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held a formal meeting at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The meeting was conducted behind closed doors and not open to the media. The agenda reportedly focused on three main areas: first, the current development of bilateral relations between Ukraine and Turkey, aiming to further deepen cooperation in various fields; second, regional development issues, exploring common development paths within the context of the regional situation; and third, promoting the establishment of a ceasefire mechanism in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and seeking a long-term solution, with particular emphasis on efforts made within the framework of the Istanbul Process.On April 4th, a source told CNBC that the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16th to consider Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman. Another criminal investigation surrounding the Fed is ongoing, examining whether current Chairman Jerome Powell made false statements to Congress regarding the expensive renovation of the Feds office buildings. Warshs nomination process is still progressing, potentially creating a conflict between the two parallel processes pushed by the Trump administration. Banking Committee member Thom Tillis has stated that he will not vote to confirm Warsh until the investigation is complete, meaning Trump cannot proceed with both processes simultaneously. However, by continuing to push forward with the hearings, Trump is clearly still trying to achieve this goal. The Senate Banking Committee has not yet included the hearings in its public schedule.According to CNBC, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 regarding the nomination of Kevin Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve.Jordan reported on April 4 that it has suffered 281 missile and drone attacks from Iran since the start of the conflict. The Jordanian Armed Forces stated that Iran has launched 161 missiles and 120 drones at the country since the conflict began. According to a statement released by Petra News Agency, the military claimed to have successfully intercepted all but 20 of the incoming targets. The statement added, "All Iranian attacks targeted key facilities and locations within Jordan and were not isolated incidents."

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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