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According to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, a 6.4-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Antigua and Barbuda at 10:50 a.m. local time on the 16th. The epicenter was located at 17.2336 degrees north latitude and 61.3383 degrees west longitude, with a focal depth of approximately 70 kilometers. There are currently no reports of casualties or property damage.According to the official measurement of the China Earthquake Networks Center, a magnitude 3.4 earthquake occurred at 22:53 on May 16 in Wuqia County, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang (40.47 degrees north latitude, 74.86 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 12 kilometers.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 6.1 occurred near the Leeward Islands (17.56°N, 61.08°W) at 22:50 on May 16. The final result is subject to the official rapid report.On May 16th, according to an official notice, the Indian government has implemented new restrictions on silver imports, changing several categories of silver products from a free import policy to a restricted import policy. Under the revised regulations, the import of silver bars, unwrought silver, and semi-finished silver (including silver powder) now requires government approval. Certain categories of silver imports are also subject to regulations from the Reserve Bank of India. These changes are introduced through revisions to the import policy catalog under the Harmonized System of Trade (HS) of India. This move comes as the Indian government intensifies its efforts to tighten regulations on precious metal imports and control rising import bills. Previously, the Indian central government had increased import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. Simultaneously, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has tightened regulations regarding the duty-free import of gold by jewelry and gemstone exporters under the "pre-authorization" scheme.On May 16, according to a report by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRNA), a fire broke out at an oil factory in the northwestern Iranian city of Maragay at around 10:00 AM. The Iranian Red Crescent website reported that IRNA official Mohammad Hossein Kabadi stated that the organizations rescue personnel immediately rushed to the scene after receiving the fire report to conduct search and rescue operations. As of now, the fire has injured at least 10 people, and the rescue operation is still ongoing.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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