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French Prime Minister Le Corny: The conflict with Iran is destined to continue.May 21 - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Establishing a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz would make diplomatic agreements unfeasible, and this is completely unacceptable to us.Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: As tensions with the United States continue to escalate, Tehran is prepared to negotiate and fight simultaneously, if necessary.1. Four sources say the seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree to a slight increase in their July production targets when they meet on June 7, despite supply disruptions in several countries due to the war with Iran. The sources say the monthly production targets set by these seven core OPEC+ members are expected to be increased by approximately 188,000 barrels per day. 2. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending May 15, total U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 2.391 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 101 billion cubic feet from the previous week and 33 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while being 149 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 6.6%. 3. According to Al Jazeera, a senior Iranian official denied reports that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain within Iran, calling it "propaganda by the enemies of the agreement." The official added, "No new orders have been issued, and Tehrans position remains consistent—Iran will dilute these materials itself, which will also be the topic of the next phase of negotiations." 4. This week, Mysteels Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profit per ton of coke at 30 independent coking plants nationwide. The national average profit per ton of coke was 72 yuan/ton; the average profit for first-grade coke in Shanxi was 106 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 111 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was 58 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was 124 yuan/ton. 5. According to a survey by the Silicon Industry Association, the overall operating rate of the industry this week did not change significantly from last week. The operating rates of two leading companies were 42% and 44% respectively, the operating rate of integrated companies was between 50% and 60%, and the operating rate of other companies was between 50% and 68%. 6. The latest monthly report from the International Grains Council (IGC) shows that global soybean production in 2026/27 is projected to increase by 1 million tons to 442 million tons compared to the previous year, trade volume is expected to decrease by 1 million tons to 190 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 445 million tons; carryover stocks are projected to increase by 1 million tons to 76 million tons. 7. The Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting, chaired by Zhang Zhu, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen responsibilities and missions, take initiative, and focus on key tasks related to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. It stressed the importance of ensuring a successful summer harvest, continuously strengthening comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, and stabilizing prices of hogs and other major agricultural products. 8. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture: As of the week ending May 14, U.S. net export sales of soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year totaled 351,400 tons, compared to 102,100 tons the previous week. U.S. soybean oil net export sales for 2025/2026 were 0.1 million tons, compared to -0.06 million tons the previous week. U.S. corn net export sales for 2025/2026 were 2,125,300 tons, compared to 684,800 tons the previous week. 9. Iranian Ambassador to France, Mohammad Amin-Nejad, recently stated: “Iran is discussing with Oman how to establish some kind of permanent toll system to formalize its control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman must mobilize all resources to provide security services and manage navigation in the most appropriate way. This will incur costs, so those countries that hope to benefit from this navigation must also bear their share of the responsibility (i.e., reopening the strait requires paying a fee).The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index for May was 8, below the expected 9 and the previous reading of 10.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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