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On January 28th, at a press conference held this morning during the Fifth Session of the 14th Guangdong Provincial Peoples Congress, Qin Weizhong, Deputy Secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal Committee and Mayor of Shenzhen, stated that in the new year, Shenzhen will, in accordance with the work plan of the Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government on promoting the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, actively promote in-depth exchanges and cooperation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong in all aspects and fields, especially strengthening the alignment of development strategies with Hong Kongs Northern Metropolitan Area, accelerating the interconnection of infrastructure, and this year will see the full completion and opening of the new Huanggang Port, accelerating the construction of projects such as the Hetao West Cross-River Bridge and the new No. 1 Channel, and jointly promoting the planning and construction of the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway and the Hong Kong Northern Link branch line with Hong Kong. Further leveraging the major platform role of Qianhai and Hetao, Shenzhen will promote more fruitful results in cooperation on modern service industries and technological innovation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, jointly develop and construct the "one river, two banks, one zone, two parks" of Hetao, promote the cross-border flow of technological innovation elements, open sharing of resources, and collaboration of science and technology industries, and work together to accelerate the creation of a high-quality living circle that is livable, business-friendly, and tourist-friendly, fully supporting Hong Kong to better integrate into and serve the overall development of the country.ECB Governing Council member Koch said: If the euro continues to strengthen, the central bank will need to take action.Zimbabwes Energy Minister: Partnerships are needed for oil and gas extraction and production.On January 28th, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated in Panama City on January 27th that he opposes external interference in Venezuelan affairs and believes the Venezuelan problem should be resolved by the Venezuelan people themselves. He emphasized that the solution should come from Venezuela itself, not Brazil or the United States. Lula also expressed his hope that US President Trump would respect Venezuelas sovereignty and democratic choices, allowing the Venezuelan people to independently safeguard their own destiny.Tanzanias Deputy Energy Minister: We hope to reverse the downward trend in oil and gas production in the coming years.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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