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According to Tasnim News Agency, a senior Iranian security official stated that Iran considers the potential US and Israeli plans to attack Iranian infrastructure to be a reckless act. Iran has developed a comprehensive plan that includes targeting critical Israeli infrastructure, as well as US energy infrastructure in the region.August 1st - According to Nikkei, the yen strengthened rapidly against the dollar in the New York foreign exchange market on the 31st, rising to around 157 yen to the dollar at one point. This marked the second consecutive day that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan intervened in the exchange rate by buying yen, following interventions on the 30th.Google (GOOG.O): Gemini Spark is rolling out to Google AI Pro users outside the United States.August 1st - According to CBS News, citing multiple sources, the United States and Israel are planning "one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date" against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and oil refineries, with the operation possibly lasting throughout the weekend. Sources say Israel has been notified and is coordinating with the US, but Trump has not yet issued final approval. The report notes that the plan was proposed at Trumps cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday, and some White House political aides strongly opposed it, fearing the operation could impact the US and global economy. Trump stated, "Were going to hit them very hard." The US has also discussed cutting off Tehrans power supply, but no decision has been made. Previously, Trump stated that for every attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant. If this operation is carried out, it would mean Israel has resumed military operations that were previously suspended due to a US-mediated ceasefire.August 1st - According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, the Houthi rebels in Yemen stated that, in order to implement their strategy of "blockade against blockade," eight Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and circle the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on them. The Houthis stated that the blockade against Saudi Arabia will continue and warned that they will take action against relevant vessels within their capabilities. The Houthis also stated that they will continue to push for the lifting of the blockade on Yemen and to protect their own interests.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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