EUR/USD 1.15233
0.055%
Gold 4055.87
-0.285%
Oil 58.107
0.401%
USD/JPY 156.657
0.172%
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-0.003%
GBP/JPY 205.291
0.170%
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On November 24th, a research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicated that, unlike the past three years, the current surge in precious metals is primarily driven by cyclical demand for gold, while silver prices have outpaced golds gains. Looking ahead to 2026, the report believes that cyclical demand and structural trends are likely to continue driving the upward trend in gold and silver prices. Under the baseline scenario, CICC projects that COMEX gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce and silver prices will reach $55 per ounce by 2026, representing further upside potential from current levels. The report argues that cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not yet peaked, as US monetary policy may shift towards easing in the short term, and the risk of long-term inflation expectations decoupling may persist. On the other hand, under the new macroeconomic order, the unique allocation value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver will become increasingly prominent, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases, private physical investment, and regional stockpiling.Finnish President Stubb: Any decision that falls within the authority of the EU or NATO will be discussed and decided by EU and NATO member states on a separate track.Finnish President Stubb: I spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky this morning. I welcome the progress made in our talks with Ukraine yesterday in Geneva. The negotiations have taken a step forward, but many important issues remain to be resolved.November 24th - On November 23rd, the total number of passengers passing through Shenzhen ports in 2025 exceeded 240 million, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024. This milestone was reached 38 days ahead of last year, setting a new record for the fastest breakthrough in the same period in history.On November 24th, it was learned from the Yangshan Port Maritime Safety Administration that the export volume of "new three items" of goods transported by sea, represented by new energy vehicles, is constantly rising at Yangshan Port, and the accompanying transportation safety issues are becoming increasingly prominent. Recently, the Yangshan Port Maritime Safety Administration uncovered a case of false declaration of documents for new energy vehicles during export port approval. The company involved used another companys qualifications during the declaration process, posing a serious safety hazard to the maritime transport of dangerous goods. It is understood that the declared goods consisted of two new energy vehicles powered by lithium batteries. When law enforcement officers compared data through the intelligent maritime supervision system, they discovered discrepancies between some key information in the declaration materials and the actual situation, and immediately launched an in-depth investigation.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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