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Energy consultants say U.S. drivers could see gas prices rise to $4 a gallon this weekend.British Defense Secretary Healy: We have eight fighter jets in Qatar.On March 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the countrys oil and gas producers to take advantage of soaring commodity prices to reduce debt, as the price surge is only temporary. Speaking at a meeting with government officials and energy company executives, Putin stated that oil production relying on the Strait of Hormuz, which is "effectively closed" due to the Middle East conflict, "could potentially come to a complete halt within a month." He added that restoring liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the region would take "weeks or even a month," and that "it is impossible to quickly make up for lost production." Putin stated that Russia "must understand that the current high commodity prices are certainly only temporary" and should act accordingly. "The change in the supply and demand balance of hydrocarbons will inevitably bring about a new price stabilization. This is inevitable, therefore, Russian energy companies must seize the current opportunity, including using additional export revenue to reduce their debt burden on Russian banks."Market news: Iran loaded 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Jask export terminal, marking the first time crude oil shipments have bypassed the Strait of Hormuz since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.On March 10, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on his official social media platform that the priorities and full attention of Ukraines partner countries are currently focused on the situation in the Middle East, therefore the meeting originally scheduled for this week at the suggestion of the United States has been postponed. Zelenskyy stated that he held a meeting with the Ukrainian negotiating team that day and instructed them to communicate with the US negotiating representatives: firstly, to reaffirm Ukraines willingness to engage in strategic cooperation on security issues, particularly in the defense of drones; and secondly, to reaffirm Ukraines willingness to undertake substantive work to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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