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December 8th - In the first 11 months of this year, sales revenue in high-tech industries and core digital economy industries both maintained double-digit growth. Value-added tax invoice data shows that in the first 11 months of this year, sales revenue in high-tech industries increased by 14.7% year-on-year. Among them, sales revenue in high-tech services increased by 17.2% year-on-year; sales revenue in high-tech manufacturing increased by 11.1% year-on-year, especially in integrated circuits and industrial machine tools, where sales revenue increased by 19.3% and 11% year-on-year, respectively. Meanwhile, breakthroughs are also being made in the integration of digital and physical industries.On December 8th, the overnight SHIBOR was reported at 1.3020%, up 0.10 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was reported at 1.4260%, up 1.00 basis point; the 14-day SHIBOR was reported at 1.5170%, up 0.90 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was reported at 1.5210%, up 0.10 basis points; and the 3-month SHIBOR was reported at 1.5800%, unchanged from the previous trading day.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say IBM (IBM.N) is in advanced talks to acquire data streaming platform Confluent, with a deal worth approximately $11 billion potentially reaching an agreement on Monday.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in London on Monday, where key British and European leaders will work together to push US-led peace talks toward a path that prevents future Russian aggression against Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merz will hold talks at Downing Street earlier in the afternoon. Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Robert Cooper will make his first trip to Washington in his current position to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials.Goldman Sachs: U.S. temperatures in December were significantly below average, resulting in relatively low inventory expectations at the end of October, making the winter of 2026-2027 vulnerable to supply shortages.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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