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On May 17, at the request of the Guizhou Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office, together with the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, allocated more than 3,000 pieces of central flood control and drought relief materials, including woven bags, laminated woven fabrics, long-filament geotextiles, and drainage equipment, to support Guizhou in its flood control and disaster relief efforts.On May 17th, TsLombard stated that an aggressive tightening cycle is unlikely. Faced with the oil price shock, the extent of policy tightening by global central banks is likely to be quite limited. In Europe, the energy shock is already dragging down economic activity. The UK labor market has been volatile for some time, and hiring sentiment in Europe is becoming increasingly weak. In our view, the tightening力度 of the ECB and the Bank of England this year will be less than the market expects, and this possibility is currently underestimated. In the US, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing policy tightening in the short term is small, and even if it does, it is almost certain to be before 2027.The UAE Ministry of Defense stated that a drone struck a generator outside the Barakah nuclear power plant.On May 17, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government announced the activation of the alert level under the "Ebola Virus Preparedness and Response Plan" to protect public health. The Centre for Health Protection of the Hong Kong Department of Health stated that it has proactively sought further information from the WHO, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the health authorities of Uganda.On May 17, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that on May 16, the IDF killed a commander of the Hamas operations headquarters.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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