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Japans March trade balance will be released in ten minutes.South Korea added only 74,000 jobs in April, the weakest performance since a year-on-year decrease of 52,000 in December 2024, following data released Wednesday by Statistics Korea. The job gains in February and March were both in the 200,000 range. The unemployment rate was 2.9%, unchanged from the same period last year. The number of unemployed was 853,000, a decrease of 2,000 year-on-year. By sector, employment in the health and social welfare services industry increased by 261,000 year-on-year, arts, sports and leisure-related services by 54,000, and real estate by 49,000. Employment in the science and technology services industry decreased by 115,000, and manufacturing by 55,000. Statistics Korea noted that the record decline in employment in the science and technology services industry since it was classified separately in 2013 is mainly due to the base effect of strong employment growth in previous years.On May 13, Iranian Vice President Shina Ansari stated that a suspected oil spill near Kharg Island, Irans main oil hub, was likely caused by wastewater discharge from an oil tanker, rather than a leak from oil facilities. Satellite images show the suspected spill area covers tens of square kilometers of sea near Kharg Island. According to Iranian state media, Vice President Ansari said, "Our monitoring results indicate that the pollution was caused by ballast water containing contaminants discharged from a non-Iranian oil tanker. No oil leaks were found in pipelines or oil facilities."On May 13, Yonhap News Agency reported that South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-baek stated on Wednesday that South Korea is studying a phased approach to participating in actions to ensure navigational safety in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a preference for support without direct military involvement. Ahn stated that he conveyed South Koreas position during his meeting with US Defense Secretary Hergsays on Monday. Ahn said, "We broadly expressed this position: fundamentally, South Korea will participate as a responsible member of the international community and will assess ways to contribute in phases." Ahn indicated that phased support could include statements of political support, personnel deployment, information sharing, and the provision of military assets, but he emphasized that the two sides did not have detailed discussions on expanding South Korean military involvement. The day before the South Korea-US defense ministers meeting, South Korea condemned the attack on a South Korean-flagged vessel near the Strait of Hormuz last week. The South Korean presidential office strongly condemned the incident but stated that the investigation into the perpetrators was ongoing.South Koreas unemployment rate was 2.8% in April, compared to an expected 2.7% and a previous reading of 2.70%.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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