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According to EuroPravda, the Czech president stated that the goal of supplying Ukraine with 1.8 million rounds of large-caliber ammunition this year has been achieved.Iranian media reported that 18 crew members of a foreign oil tanker seized in the Gulf of Oman have been detained on suspicion of transporting "smuggled fuel."On December 13th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, stated that to ensure the success of next years economic work, it is essential to adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and effectively enhancing the efficiency of macroeconomic governance. Since the Politburo meeting on September 26th last year, a series of policies and measures have been introduced and implemented, and additional policies will be introduced and implemented next year based on changes in the situation. It is crucial to leverage the integrated effect of existing and new policies to promote steady and positive economic growth. The market economy is largely an expectation economy; therefore, it is necessary to improve the expectation management mechanism, conduct effective economic publicity and public opinion guidance, respond promptly to market concerns, and effectively boost social confidence.On December 13th, it was reported that an EU official stated on the 12th that Ukraines accession to the EU before 2027 is "absolutely impossible." According to reports, a European diplomat said that Ukraines accession to the EU before 2027 is "extremely difficult," and it is unclear whether EU leaders support this plan. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on the 8th that the EUs admission of Ukraine would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia, and that the EU is preparing for war with 2030 as the target date.On December 13, Venezuelan President Maduro stated that the United States usual tactics of lying, coercion, extortion, and threats are "completely ineffective" and "will never work" against Venezuela, following the recent seizure of an oil tanker in waters near Venezuela and the announcement of new sanctions.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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