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On March 8th, local time, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Naini stated that Iran has stockpiled a large-scale arsenal of weapons, including heavy missiles, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, various types of drones, and attack vessels, sufficient to cope with a broad and protracted war, and there is no need to worry. Naini claimed that the Iranian armed forces have the capability to sustain a high-intensity war for at least six months at the current pace. The missiles currently in use are mainly first- and second-generation models. In the coming days, Iran will employ new attack methods, using advanced missiles with longer ranges and fewer deployments, which will pose a heavier and more targeted threat to adversaries.Israeli military: We have detected Iran launching a new type of missile.On March 8th, Wang Yi stated that President Xi Jinpings proposal to build a community with a shared future for mankind demonstrates the vision and broad-mindedness of a leader of a major power, answering the question of our time: where is humanity headed? It aims to tell the world that humanitys enemies are not each other, but war, poverty, hunger, and injustice. Overcoming these challenges cannot be achieved through individual efforts or by remaining isolated; it requires unity, cooperation, and global solidarity. Isolation leads to helplessness, while unity brings strength. People around the world are increasingly recognizing the contemporary value and power of the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, which acts like a lighthouse illuminating humanitys path forward.On March 8, Wang Yi, in response to a question about building a community with a shared future for mankind, said that the Chinese people have always had a vision of a world where all under heaven are interconnected and pursue a world of great harmony. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the rise of a great power with 1.4 billion people will never replicate the old path of great power rivalry and expansion. Instead, we will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development and promote all countries to jointly pursue peaceful development, building a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness and inclusiveness, and a clean and beautiful environment.On March 8th, Wang Yi stated that Taiwan has been Chinese territory since ancient times, and it has never been, is, or will ever become a "country." Taiwans return to China was a result of the Chinese peoples victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan and also a fruit of victory in World War II. A series of international legal documents, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Declaration, the Japanese Instrument of Surrender, and UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, have firmly established Taiwans status. Any attempt to create "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" internationally is doomed to failure.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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