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New York gold futures fell below $5,000 per ounce, down 0.95% on the day.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Improving Quality and Efficiency, and Striving for a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article emphasized the need to properly address risks in key areas and firmly safeguard the bottom line of safety. It called for efforts from both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, striving to stabilize the real estate market and orderly promote the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," using the construction of a new real estate development model as a driving force to promote high-quality development of the real estate sector. The article also stressed the need to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urging local governments to proactively resolve debt, strictly preventing false debt resolution, and prohibiting the illegal creation of new hidden debt. It called for optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods, and using multiple measures to resolve the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms. Finally, it emphasized the need to steadily promote the resolution, reduction, and quality improvement of risks in local small and medium-sized financial institutions, enriching risk disposal resources and means, strengthening early intervention and disposal, and firmly safeguarding the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to Steady Progress and Improving Quality and Efficiency to Achieve a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article stated that it is necessary to unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening-up to stimulate the driving force and vitality of high-quality development. It is essential to continue to advance the construction of a unified national market, thoroughly rectify "involutionary" competition, and form a market order of high quality and fair pricing, and healthy competition. Continued efforts should be made in areas such as state-owned enterprise reform, improving the local tax system, market-oriented reform of factors of production, and comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing to increase momentum and vitality through reform. It is also crucial to adhere to opening-up to the outside world and promote win-win cooperation in multiple fields. Steady progress should be made in institutional opening-up, and the independent opening-up of the service sector should be expanded in an orderly manner. Focus should be placed on improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade, promoting the integration of trade and investment, and the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and promoting balanced development of imports and exports. The business environment should be continuously optimized, and the reform of the system and mechanism for promoting foreign investment should be deepened. The high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative should be promoted to go deeper and more practically, and the overseas comprehensive service system should be improved.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability and Improving Quality and Efficiency to Achieve a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article mentioned the need to promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, and to develop new productive forces according to local conditions. Innovation is the primary driving force for development; we must adhere to innovation-driven development and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new growth drivers. In the 2025 ranking of the worlds top 100 innovation clusters, Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai-Suzhou ranked 1st, 4th, and 6th respectively. We must build international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, formulate an integrated plan for the development of education, science and technology talent, and comprehensively enhance innovation capabilities. We must accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, formulate an action plan for expanding and improving the service industry, and implement a new round of high-quality development action for key industrial chains. We must attach great importance to artificial intelligence as a key variable, deepen and expand "AI+", empower all industries in all aspects, and improve AI governance. We must strengthen the leading role of enterprises in innovation and promote the concentration of innovation resources such as funds, talent, and technology projects in enterprises.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Improving Quality and Efficiency, and Striving for a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article mentioned the need to expand new space for domestic demand growth and optimize and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. By 2025, domestic demand will contribute more than two-thirds to economic growth, with consumption contributing 52%. It stressed the importance of adhering to domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market. Currently, my country is shifting from a consumption model primarily focused on goods to one that emphasizes both goods and services. It is necessary to adapt to changes in the consumption structure, expand the supply of high-quality goods and services, eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption, and unleash the potential of service consumption. There is still significant room for investment in my countrys new urbanization, technological innovation, industrial innovation, and improvement of peoples livelihoods. Focusing on improving peoples livelihoods and enhancing future growth potential, high-quality urban renewal should be promoted. Effectively stimulating private investment and stabilizing investment are crucial.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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