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According to Iranian media reports, a power outage occurred in Tehran.March 31st - This morning (March 31st), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held its monthly press conference. The conference released data on the issuance of various certificates, including certificates of origin and commercial certificates, by the CCPIT system nationwide in February. The data shows that the number of certificates issued by the CCPIT system in February increased by 72.38% year-on-year. In February 2026, the CCPIT system nationwide issued a total of 744,500 certificates, including certificates of origin, ATA Carnets, and commercial certificates, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.38%.According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea will launch crude oil swap transactions with local oil refineries.On March 31, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated in a television interview that the impact of halving Australias retail fuel tax will take some time to reach consumers. Wong said, "Obviously, gas stations need to sell off the fuel that was taxed at a higher rate before you see the price reduction hit the pumps." The month-long Middle East conflict has disrupted global oil trade and led to soaring prices and shortages across Asia, one of the worlds most reliant regions on Persian Gulf oil supplies. In recent weeks, sporadic panic buying has occurred in Australia, particularly in rural areas, with some gas stations running out of fuel ahead of the long Easter weekend (traditional peak driving season). From Wednesday, Australia will reduce the tax on petrol and diesel by approximately 26 cents (US$0.18) per liter. According to the government, this should reduce the cost of filling a typical 65-liter (17-gallon) car by nearly AU$19.The Hang Seng Index turned negative, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.12%.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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