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On April 21, it was learned from the Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Quantum Computing Chips that Chinas third-generation domestically developed superconducting quantum computer, "Origin Wukong," has initially acquired the capability to integrate artificial intelligence computing and has launched several quantum AI tools, including the quantum knowledge model Origin Brain and QPanda3 Runtime MCP. This breakthrough marks the first time that my countrys independent quantum computing power has been systematically integrated into the AI application ecosystem, propelling my countrys domestically developed quantum computers from "usable" to "easy to use."On April 21, South Koreas newly appointed central bank governor stated that he will adopt a cautious and flexible monetary policy strategy. Currently, rising oil prices are exacerbating inflationary pressures and casting a shadow over the economic growth outlook. On Tuesday, Shin Hyun-song, who succeeded Lee Chang-yong, stated that it is necessary to re-examine the central banks role from a longer-term perspective. He pointed out that structural issues such as demographic changes, inequality, and the real estate market should be considered important components of monetary policy. The new governor stated that the economy is currently facing increasing uncertainty due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. At the same time, rising global energy prices have increased the upside risks to inflation, while the downside risks to economic growth are also increasing. In his inaugural address, he stated, "Due to the supply shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict, uncertainty regarding the path of inflation and economic growth has increased significantly." He pledged to implement monetary policy "in a prudent and flexible manner" to ensure price and financial stability.JPMorgan Chase: Raises its year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500 to 7,600, up from 7,200 previously.On April 21, the Japanese government formally revised its "Three Principles on the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and its application guidelines at a cabinet meeting, allowing the export of lethal weapons in principle. Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that Japans relaxation of arms export restrictions represents a significant shift in its postwar military and security policy. In reality, it is another strategic step by right-wing forces to promote "normalization," and its intentions and potential harms warrant high vigilance. Meng Mingming noted that, in terms of intentions, Japans current economic downturn, high fiscal deficit, severe aging population, and long-term limitations on military production capacity clearly contradict the ambitions of the Japanese right wing to revive militarism and actively expand its military. Therefore, the Japanese government plans to achieve multiple objectives by strengthening its arms export policy. In terms of harms, this relaxation of restrictions on the export of various lethal weapons will fundamentally impact Japans postwar principle of exclusively defensive defense. For Sino-Japanese relations and regional peace, the vast majority of countries to which Japan intends to export weapons are Chinas neighboring countries. By upgrading the weaponry of these countries, Japan is actually bolstering the confidence of anti-China forces within these countries, which will only further exacerbate regional tensions.April 21 – According to the China Railway Urumqi Group Co., Ltd., the railway transportation period for this years May Day holiday will run from April 29 to May 6, a total of 8 days. Xinjiang railway authorities expect to transport 1.7996 million passengers, a 2% increase year-on-year, and plan to add a total of 302 temporary passenger trains. Among them, 30 temporary passenger trains will be for inter-provincial routes to Chengdu West and Lanzhou, and 272 will be for routes within Xinjiang.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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