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April 27th - As tensions in the Middle East push up oil prices, U.S. Treasury market traders are closely watching this weeks Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials views on the inflation outlook. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but traders tend to believe a rate cut is still possible before the end of the year. Swap market data from Friday showed the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year has risen to around 40%. This development could pave the way for Kevin Warsh, Trumps nominee, to lead the Fed and implement more accommodative policies. Against this backdrop, traders will be listening closely for incumbent Chairman Powells remarks at the post-meeting press conference for an update on his plans after his term ends next May. Meanwhile, this week will also see a series of Treasury auctions, including 2-year and 5-year notes, to test market demand at current yield levels.According to a recent article by tech journalist Marc Gurman, Apples successor CEO John Tenus will officially take office on September 1st, followed by the release of the first foldable iPhone. This arrangement aims to establish Tenus as the face of this product line. The device focuses on durability and micro-crease technology, and is expected to cost over $2,000. In addition to the phone, Cook has also left behind approximately 10 new product pipelines, including AI smart home devices, AR glasses, and touchscreen Macs, to help him drive Apple into an unprecedented product expansion cycle during his new term.Tanker tracking data shows that Iran has loaded 4.6 million barrels of crude oil at its crude oil terminals, and another 4 million barrels of oil appear to have broken through the US blockade.According to NBC News: The FBI is knocking on doors near the suspects home.Buckingham Palace has stated that King Charles and Queen Camillas trip to the United States will proceed as planned.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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