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On March 30, in response to concerns raised by Europe and other countries regarding rising fuel prices and increased shipping costs in the Gulf, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated that Iran is not responsible for the current situation and does not want people in other countries to suffer pressure due to rising fuel or food prices. Baghae also stated that Iran is currently managing the passage of vessels that are not hostile, while ensuring security. In the past few days, some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after coordinating with relevant Iranian authorities.March 30th - Germanys inflation accelerated significantly in March, according to the German Federal Statistical Office on Monday, following the surge in energy costs caused by the conflict with Iran. This reinforces expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may need to raise interest rates. Germanys harmonized CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in March, up from 2% in February, reaching its highest level in over a year. Regional reports showed that heating oil and fuel were the main drivers. As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, the impact of rising oil and gas costs is gradually being reflected in European prices and consumer expectations for the inflation outlook. Although ECB President Christine Lagarde pledged to act swiftly and decisively if necessary, officials indicated that they would not rush into action after assessing the full impact. Money markets expect a rapid policy response and favor raising interest rates at the April meeting, with up to three rate hikes possible throughout the year.The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has discovered stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons in parts of Donetsk liberated from the Ukrainian armed forces.On March 30th, it was reported that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) held its 2026 Research (Advisory) Work Conference on March 24th. The conference noted that in 2025, the PBOCs research (advisory) department focused on planning and researching important reforms for the PBOC, conducted high-quality research and compilation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, dynamically evaluated and improved key tasks related to the construction of the "six core elements," and accelerated the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center. Positive results were achieved in strengthening macroeconomic analysis, improving the green finance system, promoting regional financial reform and development, and leveraging the advisory role. The conference required that in 2026, research (advisory) work should deeply understand the new situation, new tasks, and new requirements facing financial research during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, scientifically grasp research methodology, effectively carry out work related to the 15th Five-Year Plan, deepen research on major regularities and emerging issues, coordinate the promotion of regional financial reform and financial support for regional coordinated development, fully leverage the role of advisors and financial research in assisting the PBOCs work, and transform research results into practical measures to promote high-quality financial development.Canadas national economic confidence index was 49.2 as of March 27, compared to 50.6 previously.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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