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On April 3, local time, Kyiv Oblast Governor Kalashnikov announced that the region had been hit by a large-scale missile and drone attack launched by Russia. The attack has resulted in one death and one injury. Local air defense forces have launched air defense operations in the area. Russia has not yet responded.The Polish military stated that military air operations related to the Russian airstrikes on Ukraine have ended; no violations of Polish airspace occurred.On April 3, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking stronger U.S. security guarantees in a peace agreement with Russia, as efforts to restart stalled negotiations with Moscow continue. Zelenskyy stated on Thursday that the U.S. should clearly articulate how it will respond in the event of another Russian attack on Ukraine. He expressed his desire for clearer arrangements regarding funding for maintaining an 800,000-strong post-war army as a deterrent against aggression. He also indicated his hope that the U.S. would provide Ukraine with advanced air defense systems, including THAAD, to help defend against high-speed ballistic missile attacks, similar to the support the U.S. provides to its Middle Eastern allies.On April 3, the Ministry of Civil Affairs released six newly formulated and revised industry standards in the funeral sector, including the "Specifications for Data Sharing and Exchange in Funeral Management Service Information Systems" and the "Public Satisfaction Evaluation of Funeral Services." These standards stipulate measures to promote the informatization of the funeral sector, optimize the service quality of funeral service institutions, and strive to improve the management level of funeral services and solidify the institutional guarantee of "a peaceful passing." The series of standards will take effect on April 5 this year.The Russian Ministry of Finance reported that revenue from oil and gas sales in the Russian state budget was 617 billion rubles in March, compared to 432.3 billion rubles in February.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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