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Domestic News: 1. The Ministry of Public Security publicly solicited opinions on the Law on the Prevention and Control of Cybercrime. 2. Wang Xiangxi, Secretary of the Party Committee and Minister of the Ministry of Emergency Management, was investigated. 3. The National Bureau of Statistics: The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. 4. The Southern Theater Command of the Peoples Liberation Army organized combat readiness patrols in the territorial waters and airspace of Huangyan Island and surrounding areas. 5. Xi Jinping: Give full play to comparative advantages, adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and promote continuous breakthroughs in the development of my countrys future industries. 6. Qiushi magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping entitled "Taking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power." 7. The Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Implementation Plan on Further Accelerating the Construction of a City of Artificial Intelligence (2026-2027)." International News: 1. CME raised the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures. 2. The US federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown. 3. Indonesias financial regulatory agency appointed an interim head and an executive head. 4. Trump announces Brett Matsumotos nomination as the new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. Sources: Talks between Russia and the United States have begun in Miami, Florida. 6. SpaceX applies to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network. 7. According to Interfax: Russia lifts its ban on gasoline exports to producers. 8. Jensen Huang: Will definitely participate in this round of investment in OpenAI, which may be the largest investment in the companys history. 9. Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh is reportedly involved in the Epstein case; US Commerce Secretary Lutnick is reportedly reported to have visited Epsteins private island. 10. An explosion occurred in a building in southern Iran; the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denies rumors of an assassination attempt on Navy Commander Donsiri; two Israeli officials stated that Israel was not involved in the Iranian explosion.On January 31st, at the Fourth Session of the 14th Heilongjiang Provincial Peoples Congress, which opened on January 31st, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption were once again key tasks in the government work report. In 2026, Heilongjiang Province will hold over 2,000 consumption-promoting activities, including "Shopping in Heilongjiang," and distribute over 800 million yuan in government consumption vouchers. In 2025, Heilongjiang Province launched a special campaign to boost consumption, expanding the scope of the trade-in program for old consumer goods and organizing a series of consumption-promoting activities, stimulating consumption by 72.84 billion yuan. The province also stimulated potential consumption such as first-launch economy and live-streaming e-commerce, establishing 15 new internationally and domestically renowned flagship stores, and achieving a 14.7% year-on-year increase in online retail sales. The investment structure continued to optimize, with investment in high-tech manufacturing increasing by 11.5% year-on-year, and the proportion of private investment increasing by 2.2 percentage points.January 31st - To effectively curb the sources of cybercrime, rectify the cybercrime ecosystem, and enhance the publics sense of security and satisfaction with cybersecurity, the Ministry of Public Security, after thorough research and demonstration, has drafted the "Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law (Draft for Public Comment)," and is now soliciting public opinions. The deadline for feedback is March 2nd, 2026.January 31st - According to Lighthouse Pro, as of 9 PM on January 31st, the total box office for January 2026 reached 1.961 billion yuan, with "Zootopia 2" holding the top spot for the third consecutive month.On January 31, the "Implementation Plan of Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area on Further Accelerating the Construction of a City of Artificial Intelligence (2026-2027)" was released. The Implementation Plan systematically outlines the development goals for the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Areas city of artificial intelligence over the next two years, proposing to accelerate the construction of a city-level engineering experimental platform driven by data and scenarios, and to promote the application of artificial intelligence in various industries and households. The Implementation Plan specifies that by the end of 2027, the focus will be on building no fewer than 10 benchmark intelligent scenario complexes, promoting the application of 100 vertical models, constructing a number of high-quality industry datasets, gathering 1,000 core enterprises in the artificial intelligence industry chain, attracting 10,000 super individuals and independent developers, and significantly enhancing the scale and level of the core industries of the intelligent economy.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3500 on firmer Oil prices, BoC concerns over US inflation, and Fed Minutes

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:35

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The USD/CAD maintains losses close to 1.3500, shattering a four-day winning trend, as traders brace for key Easter Monday data/events on major bourses. However, the recent decline in the Loonie-U.S. dollar exchange rate may be due to the increase in the price of WTI petroleum oil, Canada's primary export. In contrast to the recent increase in ardent Fed forecasts, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bias poses a challenge to pair sellers.

 

After increasing for three consecutive weeks, WTI crude oil prices gain 0.61 percent intraday near $80.00. Recent increases in the price of black gold may be due to geopolitical concerns surrounding China and Taiwan. In addition to the supply cut by OPEC+ and the faltering US dollar, the energy benchmark is sustained by the supply cut by OPEC+ and the weakening US dollar.

 

However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for three consecutive weeks and is under pressure near 102,000.

 

Fears of higher Fed rates versus inaction from the Bank of Canada (BoC) grew after the upbeat US Jobs report versus the lack of significant positives in the March Canadian jobs report.

 

As a result, the CME's FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% chance of a 0.25 basis point rate hike in May, up from 55% prior to the US employment report.

 

Canada's headline Net Change in Employment increased to 34.7K in March from 21.8K in February, compared to the market consensus of 12K, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 5% versus the analysts' estimate of 5.0%. During the specified month, the Participation Rate decreased to 65.6% from the expected and previous rate of 65.7%. In addition, the average hourly wage fell 5.2% year-over-year in March, down from 5.5% in February.

 

In contrast, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 236K in March, the lowest increase since January 2021 (considering revisions), compared to the expected 240K and the previous 330,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, while the labor force participation rate rose from 62.6% to 62.6%. The annual wage inflation rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, below market expectations of 4.3%.

 

Futures on US equities ended higher, but yields remain under pressure ahead of the crucial BoC monetary policy meeting, US inflation, and Fed Minutes. Given the dovish concerns from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the likely hawkish comments in the FOMC Minutes, the USD/CAD may see additional gains, barring any unexpected developments.


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