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International oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.Spot gold and silver traded in a volatile range. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals, converted between domestic and international prices.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.43% and spot palladium rose 0.37%.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 1.92%.On July 15th, CICC Research Report stated that the seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, and the year-on-year increase fell back to 3.5%; the core CPI showed zero month-on-month growth and rose by 2.6% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. The decline in energy prices is the main reason for the cooling of inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the United States and Iran has escalated again, and the outlook for energy inflation is subject to fluctuations. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging. The mismatch between supply and demand of upstream hardware, the price increase of software and peripheral products, and the boost to aggregate demand from AI capital expenditure may all make core inflation more sticky. In terms of policy, the cooling of inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, but Wallers recent statements show [1] that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the possibility of "precautionary rate hikes". We maintain our baseline judgment of no rate hikes this year, but suggest that the threshold for rate hikes has already decreased. Once one or two overheated inflation data appear, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to further discuss the option of raising interest rates.

USD/CAD Bears In Control And Aiming At Support Zone Lows

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:53

USD:CAD.png 

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is unchanged on the day after a succession of negative impulses drove the price into new territory to the downside and deeper into a support region as a result of the oil price rally. The USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.3431 at the time of writing.

 

Monday's 6.3% rise in West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil to an intraday high of $81.51 strengthened the CAD. The oil price surged after the OPEC+ cartel surprised the market with a production cut of 1.1 million barrels per day to support prices, with the cartel announcing that it will reduce output prior to Monday's ministerial meeting.

 

Analysts at TD Securities observed that the Bank of Canada's Business/Consumer Surveys painted a more dovish picture ahead of the April BoC meeting, with a marked improvement in capacity pressures and consumer inflation expectations.

 

Analysts noted that firm-level inflation expectations continue to be elevated and that consumer growth and income expectations have also increased since the fourth quarter.

 

''The Bank of Canada should be pleased with these results, which indicate a decline in capacity pressures and a moderation in inflationary pressures. However, inflation expectations remain a formidable impediment to near-term relief. If growth does not decelerate substantially in the second quarter, it may be difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 4.50 percent. Analysts believe that the report is optimistic for CAD.


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