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1. Monday: ① Data: Switzerlands June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozones July Sentix investor confidence index, Eurozones May PPI month-on-month rate, Eurozones May retail sales month-on-month rate; US June S&P Global Services PMI final reading, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Stress Index. ② Events: Speeches by Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Winsch, and Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Seim. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Germanys May seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate; UKs June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month rate; Frances May trade balance; US ADP employment change week-on-week for the week ending June 20, US May trade balance; Chinas June foreign exchange reserves. ② Events: Turkey hosts the NATO summit until July 8; the US Trade Representatives Office holds a public hearing to consider a proposal to impose additional tariffs on 60 economies worldwide. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; Japans May trade balance; New Zealands RBNZ interest rate decision for the week ending July 8; US May wholesale sales month-on-month; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week ending July 3; US EIA strategic petroleum reserves for the week ending July 3. ② Events: EIA releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; RBNZ Governor Brehman holds a monetary policy press conference. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction - winning yield for the week ending July 8; US 10-year Treasury auction - bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending July 8; Chinas June CPI year-on-year rate; Germanys May seasonally adjusted trade balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4; US June existing home sales (annualized); US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending July 3. ② Events: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the European Central Bank releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech. 5. Friday: ① Data: Germanys final June CPI month-on-month rate; Frances final June CPI month-on-month rate; Switzerlands June consumer confidence index; Canadas June employment change; Chinas June M2 money supply year-on-year rate. ② Events: SK Hynixs American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq on July 10; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech; the IEA releases its monthly oil market report. ③ Holiday: The New Zealand Stock Exchange is closed. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 10.Two Iraqi oil officials said that Iraqs total oil exports in June amounted to approximately 24.5 million barrels.July 5th - George Gonsalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said that Warshs concise style makes the June meeting minutes more significant than usual, providing a valuable perspective on the differing positions among Federal Reserve officials. "The minutes will become even more important because, until now, we didnt know what the Fed was thinking," Gonsalves said. "It will be very enlightening to see how they debated and what they focused on." He added that some investors have questioned Warshs "hands-off" approach, and many want greater transparency. Many market participants are not used to reduced information and remain quite skeptical about how long the Fed can maintain this stance. Now we can only try to decipher the meaning between the lines.On July 5th, local time, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated in a broadcast that Ukrainian armed forces have intensified their attacks on Russian infrastructure due to the deteriorating situation on the front lines. The Russian military is establishing a secure buffer zone along the border, and concrete results are already visible. He also stated that Russian troops are steadily advancing according to plan in special military operations areas. Peskov stated that the EUs transformation into a military-political bloc has further exacerbated the Ukraine issue. Russia hopes the EU will not undermine the prospects for peace negotiations. Peskov also stated that Russia remains open to peace negotiations and looks forward to the US playing a mediating role. Russia has always welcomed visits from US Presidential Envoy Witkov and Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner. Even with their extended absence, Russia continues to maintain contact with the US through existing channels.July 5 - According to sources from the Yemeni military and medical departments, Houthi rebels launched an attack on Hodeidah province on the Red Sea coast on July 4, killing at least 14 Yemeni government soldiers and injuring several others.

USD/CAD Bears In Control And Aiming At Support Zone Lows

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:53

USD:CAD.png 

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is unchanged on the day after a succession of negative impulses drove the price into new territory to the downside and deeper into a support region as a result of the oil price rally. The USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.3431 at the time of writing.

 

Monday's 6.3% rise in West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil to an intraday high of $81.51 strengthened the CAD. The oil price surged after the OPEC+ cartel surprised the market with a production cut of 1.1 million barrels per day to support prices, with the cartel announcing that it will reduce output prior to Monday's ministerial meeting.

 

Analysts at TD Securities observed that the Bank of Canada's Business/Consumer Surveys painted a more dovish picture ahead of the April BoC meeting, with a marked improvement in capacity pressures and consumer inflation expectations.

 

Analysts noted that firm-level inflation expectations continue to be elevated and that consumer growth and income expectations have also increased since the fourth quarter.

 

''The Bank of Canada should be pleased with these results, which indicate a decline in capacity pressures and a moderation in inflationary pressures. However, inflation expectations remain a formidable impediment to near-term relief. If growth does not decelerate substantially in the second quarter, it may be difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 4.50 percent. Analysts believe that the report is optimistic for CAD.