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On July 1st, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Aleksandar Vujic stated that the bank will likely await further data, such as the latest macroeconomic forecasts to be released at its September meeting, before deciding on its next interest rate move. Speaking during the ECB meeting in Portugal, he said, "We must wait for the data to come out until the July meeting; then in September, we will have new forecast data and make a decision based on the further data received at that time." Vujic pointed out that the central bank will not pre-commit to a specific interest rate path. He noted that the June inflation data so far has not yielded any surprises. The ECB last raised interest rates at its June meeting, when it increased them by 25 basis points.ECB Governing Council member Kochel: The threat of inflation has decreased, but it has not been completely contained. The next decision will be to raise interest rates or keep them unchanged.July 1st - Monex Europe analysts stated that the euro faces further downside risk if Wednesdays Eurozone inflation data falls short of expectations and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde cools expectations for further rate hikes. In a report, they stated that inflation data is likely to be weaker than anticipated, given that data from Germany, France, and Italy came in weaker than expected. They suggested this could reinforce the view that the ECB will "stop there" after last months rate hike. Lagarde may also confirm this view at the ECB forum in Portugal on Wednesday.ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The rise in German energy prices has produced almost no second-round effect.ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Inflation remains too high.

USD/CAD Bears In Control And Aiming At Support Zone Lows

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:53

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The USD/CAD exchange rate is unchanged on the day after a succession of negative impulses drove the price into new territory to the downside and deeper into a support region as a result of the oil price rally. The USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.3431 at the time of writing.

 

Monday's 6.3% rise in West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil to an intraday high of $81.51 strengthened the CAD. The oil price surged after the OPEC+ cartel surprised the market with a production cut of 1.1 million barrels per day to support prices, with the cartel announcing that it will reduce output prior to Monday's ministerial meeting.

 

Analysts at TD Securities observed that the Bank of Canada's Business/Consumer Surveys painted a more dovish picture ahead of the April BoC meeting, with a marked improvement in capacity pressures and consumer inflation expectations.

 

Analysts noted that firm-level inflation expectations continue to be elevated and that consumer growth and income expectations have also increased since the fourth quarter.

 

''The Bank of Canada should be pleased with these results, which indicate a decline in capacity pressures and a moderation in inflationary pressures. However, inflation expectations remain a formidable impediment to near-term relief. If growth does not decelerate substantially in the second quarter, it may be difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 4.50 percent. Analysts believe that the report is optimistic for CAD.