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On April 20th, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the new Federal Reserve chairman, argued that upcoming productivity growth could give the Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity leads to low-inflation economic growth. However, economist Ed Jardney also anticipates the economy will benefit from technological advancements this decade, but he disagrees that this outcome justifies lowering interest rates. Jardney wrote, "While we share Warshs optimism about productivity, we have fundamentally different views on what this outcome means for monetary policy." Jardney believes that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest, R*, which neither stimulates nor inhibits the economy. He wrote, "If the Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it could fuel financial speculation and instability."April 20 - Irans Civil Aviation Organization announced on the 20th that flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport and Mehrabad Airport will resume that day.A senior Iranian official said Pakistan is making positive efforts to end the US blockade of Iran and ensure Irans participation in negotiations.On April 20, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held a meeting to report on the economic performance of central enterprises in the first quarter and to sign the 2026 performance commitment agreements. The meeting required central enterprises to more solidly and effectively carry out key tasks, go all out to improve quality and efficiency and stabilize growth, and focus on strengthening their internal capabilities and optimizing their business strategies. They should actively expand effective investment in areas such as cultivating emerging pillar industries, large-scale equipment upgrades and renovations, construction of essential infrastructure, and acquisition of strategic mineral resources to effectively support the expansion of domestic demand and ensure the supply of key energy resources. Furthermore, they should vigorously cultivate and develop new productive forces, based on the foundation of the real economy, continuously promote technological innovation, place basic research in a more prominent position, focus on R&D reserves and talent reserves, and accelerate industrial transformation based on their core businesses and development stages to rapidly develop new drivers of growth and new advantages.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell briefly, currently trading at $89/barrel and $90.6/barrel respectively. A senior Iranian official stated that Iran is actively reviewing its participation in peace negotiations.

USD/CAD Bears In Control And Aiming At Support Zone Lows

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:53

USD:CAD.png 

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is unchanged on the day after a succession of negative impulses drove the price into new territory to the downside and deeper into a support region as a result of the oil price rally. The USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.3431 at the time of writing.

 

Monday's 6.3% rise in West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil to an intraday high of $81.51 strengthened the CAD. The oil price surged after the OPEC+ cartel surprised the market with a production cut of 1.1 million barrels per day to support prices, with the cartel announcing that it will reduce output prior to Monday's ministerial meeting.

 

Analysts at TD Securities observed that the Bank of Canada's Business/Consumer Surveys painted a more dovish picture ahead of the April BoC meeting, with a marked improvement in capacity pressures and consumer inflation expectations.

 

Analysts noted that firm-level inflation expectations continue to be elevated and that consumer growth and income expectations have also increased since the fourth quarter.

 

''The Bank of Canada should be pleased with these results, which indicate a decline in capacity pressures and a moderation in inflationary pressures. However, inflation expectations remain a formidable impediment to near-term relief. If growth does not decelerate substantially in the second quarter, it may be difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 4.50 percent. Analysts believe that the report is optimistic for CAD.