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Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Upside risks to inflation are the most important.April 14th - The Middle East war has driven up oil prices and demand for Russian oil, and Russias oil tax profits are expected to increase further. Data from Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency, shows that in the first 13 days of April, the average price of Urals crude oil, Russias main export, at western ports reached $106.3 per barrel, a 42% increase compared to March. Russian oil taxes are calculated with a one-month lag in Urals crude prices, so the impact of the March price increase will be reflected starting this month. In local currency terms, the average Urals price in March had already soared to 6,191 rubles; if the average price and exchange rate remain at current levels in April, it will further rise to approximately 8,300 rubles this month, the highest since March 2022. Finam economist Berenkaya stated that for every $1 increase in the annual average Urals price, Russian oil and gas tax revenue increases by approximately 150 billion rubles (about $2 billion). In April alone, the industrys revenue may reach 900-950 billion rubles, higher than the 617 billion rubles in March.Federal Reserves Goolsby: Concerns about how long the war with Iran will last.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Businesses tell me they have no pricing power.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Finding a solution to the Iranian issue is in the interest of all parties.

USD/CAD Bears In Control And Aiming At Support Zone Lows

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:53

USD:CAD.png 

 

The USD/CAD exchange rate is unchanged on the day after a succession of negative impulses drove the price into new territory to the downside and deeper into a support region as a result of the oil price rally. The USD/CAD exchange rate was 1.3431 at the time of writing.

 

Monday's 6.3% rise in West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil to an intraday high of $81.51 strengthened the CAD. The oil price surged after the OPEC+ cartel surprised the market with a production cut of 1.1 million barrels per day to support prices, with the cartel announcing that it will reduce output prior to Monday's ministerial meeting.

 

Analysts at TD Securities observed that the Bank of Canada's Business/Consumer Surveys painted a more dovish picture ahead of the April BoC meeting, with a marked improvement in capacity pressures and consumer inflation expectations.

 

Analysts noted that firm-level inflation expectations continue to be elevated and that consumer growth and income expectations have also increased since the fourth quarter.

 

''The Bank of Canada should be pleased with these results, which indicate a decline in capacity pressures and a moderation in inflationary pressures. However, inflation expectations remain a formidable impediment to near-term relief. If growth does not decelerate substantially in the second quarter, it may be difficult for the Bank of Canada to keep rates at 4.50 percent. Analysts believe that the report is optimistic for CAD.


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