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1. Sudden Geopolitical Developments: The White House press secretary confirmed that the United States and Iran will hold their first round of talks in Pakistan on April 11. The US delegation will be led by Vice President Vance and others. Iran has proposed a new plan as a basis for negotiations, but the US "red line" demanding that Iran stop uranium enrichment remains unchanged. 2. Risk of Spread from Conflict: The Israeli Air Force launched its largest airstrike against Hezbollah in Lebanon since the start of the conflict (attacking 100 targets in 10 minutes), resulting in 112 deaths and 837 injuries in Lebanon. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently issued a strong statement, saying that if the attacks do not cease, Iran is prepared to launch a "heavy retaliation" against Israel that it will regret. 3. Logic Behind Market Fluctuations: Guoxin Futures analysis points out that the previous ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a more than 15% plunge in crude oil prices. Easing inflationary pressures opened up room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This, coupled with the Peoples Bank of Chinas 17 consecutive months of gold purchases and speculative funds, contributed to the surge in gold and silver prices. Huaxin Futures believes that the speculative attributes of gold are now surpassing its safe-haven attributes, and the recovery in risk appetite has amplified the price increases. 4. Market Trend Analysis: Guoxin Futures believes that considering the US-Iran ceasefire has only lasted two weeks and Trumps policy style is highly volatile, the technical pattern has not yet formed a clear breakout. Four key factors need to be monitored: First, the implementation of the ceasefire agreement; second, Trumps latest statements; third, the subsequent gold purchases by central banks; and fourth, US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. 5. Dongwu Futures: Looking ahead, a temporary ceasefire does not represent a resolution of the core conflict, and the risk of further negotiation setbacks and fluctuating situations remains. 6. Guangfa Futures: The US-Iran ceasefire agreement was obstructed, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, gold prices surged and then sharply retreated, and the Federal Reserve minutes showed divergent attitudes towards inflation and interest rates. Short-term geopolitical shocks are diminishing. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Germanys seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate and trade balance for February will be released in ten minutes.ANZ Bank: Oil supply disruptions have significantly tightened the global crude oil supply and demand balance, and the market is rapidly shifting from a supply glut at the beginning of the year to a significant shortage.India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas will pay an official visit to Qatar from April 9 to 10, 2026.British Foreign Secretary Cooper: We should support the International Maritime Organizations proposal regarding ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Fundamental freedoms of the sea must not be unilaterally deprived or sold out.

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9040 As Attention Shifts To US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:27

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade lacklusterly above the crucial support level of 0.9036 in the early Tokyo session. Investors are shifting their focus to Wednesday's release of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, making it difficult for the Swiss Franc to gain traction.

 

As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate, S&P500 futures have pared some of their gains. The market's anxiety has been alleviated by the increasing intensity of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan Island. In addition, concerns of a recession are likely to cause volatility in US equities.

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in an interview with CNN that the recent banking turmoil caused by the dissolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States.  Despite the robustness and security of the banking system, the recent turmoil in the financial system is "another weight on the scale" toward recession, he added.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the 102.00 support level ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the consensus, headline inflation will fall from 6.0% to 5.2%. In addition, the headline monthly CPI would decelerate to 0.3% from 0.4% previously reported. As a consequence of oil prices remaining low in March, inflationary pressures are anticipated to become evident.

 

In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, is anticipated to increase to 5.6% from 5.5%. The tenacity of inflationary pressures is maintained by the resiliency of demand for essential products, as a result of a higher labor cost index. A similar event could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates again at its May monetary policy meeting.

 

Regarding the Swiss Franc, Swiss markets are suspended on Easter Monday. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will have an impact on the Swiss Franc.

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