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September 8th - Billionaire Aliko Dangotes mega-refinery in Nigeria is operating at full capacity to maximize diesel and jet fuel supplies to Europe, capitalizing on soaring profit margins. Since the start of the war, Middle Eastern oil product supplies have plummeted, disrupting crucial diesel and jet fuel shipments to Europe, and Dangote has stepped in to fill the gap. Africas largest refinery reached full capacity shortly before the start of the US-Israel war against Iran on February 28th, enabling it to help compensate for the disruption in fuel supplies to Europe while profiting from the surge in earnings. This timing also demonstrates its profit potential ahead of its initial public offering on September 14th, the largest equity sale in Africa.On September 8th, Volker Treier of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry stated that the setback in German exports in July stemmed directly from fluctuations in trade policy. Exports fell 0.8% month-on-month after five consecutive months of growth. He noted that a relatively weak global economy and increased competition are putting pressure on German exporters. However, exports to the US increased somewhat due to the Trump administrations announcement in July of a 10% tariff on EU imports. But Treier stated that the much-needed boost from an improved business environment for Germany and Europe has yet to materialize.On September 8, French Foreign Minister Jean-Michel Barrow announced that France would halt trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. France, along with the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark, Spain, Finland, Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, and Sweden, issued a joint statement that day, committing to restrict trade with Israeli settlements. The joint statement said that the situation in the West Bank is rapidly deteriorating, with settler violence and settlement expansion reaching unprecedented levels. France, the United Kingdom, and Canada will propose national-level measures to ban trade with settlements. Barrow stated that France believes Israel must stop settlement expansion and related violence, and that France cannot support a situation that threatens the security of Israelis and Palestinians and regional peace and stability through trade. He also called on the European Union to take corresponding measures.On September 8th, British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced in the House of Commons a shift in the UK governments Middle East policy and new sanctions against Israeli settlements in the West Bank. According to the measures announced by the British government, the UK will ban imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the West Bank and restrict British companies from providing certain services such as financing, construction, and advertising for new settlements.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated sharply, causing WTI crude oil to surge past $92. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9040 As Attention Shifts To US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:27

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade lacklusterly above the crucial support level of 0.9036 in the early Tokyo session. Investors are shifting their focus to Wednesday's release of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, making it difficult for the Swiss Franc to gain traction.

 

As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate, S&P500 futures have pared some of their gains. The market's anxiety has been alleviated by the increasing intensity of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan Island. In addition, concerns of a recession are likely to cause volatility in US equities.

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in an interview with CNN that the recent banking turmoil caused by the dissolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States.  Despite the robustness and security of the banking system, the recent turmoil in the financial system is "another weight on the scale" toward recession, he added.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the 102.00 support level ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the consensus, headline inflation will fall from 6.0% to 5.2%. In addition, the headline monthly CPI would decelerate to 0.3% from 0.4% previously reported. As a consequence of oil prices remaining low in March, inflationary pressures are anticipated to become evident.

 

In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, is anticipated to increase to 5.6% from 5.5%. The tenacity of inflationary pressures is maintained by the resiliency of demand for essential products, as a result of a higher labor cost index. A similar event could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates again at its May monetary policy meeting.

 

Regarding the Swiss Franc, Swiss markets are suspended on Easter Monday. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will have an impact on the Swiss Franc.

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