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June 5th - According to foreign media reports, Mays non-farm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, causing the US interest rate futures market to significantly increase its bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at its December meeting. According to LSEG data, the interest rate futures market currently projects a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the jobs report was released. For the June meeting, the market still widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The stronger-than-expected jobs data indicates the continued resilience of the US labor market and further weakens market expectations for a near-term rate cut, while strengthening investors assessment that the Fed may resume rate hikes in the future to address inflationary pressures.Market news: Hillhouse Capital is about to complete its acquisition of a stake in LRQA Group, which is backed by Goldman Sachs.June 5th - Analyst Jersey commented on the US non-farm payrolls: Its difficult to describe the job market as weak. For the interest rate market, the risk leans more towards rate hikes, while the likelihood of rate cuts decreases. Kevin Warsh will find it difficult to persuade other members of the Federal Reserves Monetary Policy Committee to lower interest rates. We dont believe a rate hike is imminent, but if we see several more job increases like this, several rate hikes will become our baseline scenario.On June 5th, at the 2026 Qualcomm Automotive Technology and Cooperation Summit, Qualcomm Technologies, together with ecosystem partners including Chemmax Technology, CarLink, Banma Smart, Desay SV, Magnatec, and ThunderSoft, announced the Claw ecosystem plan for automotive AI. Through this plan, Qualcomm Technologies and its ecosystem partners are committed to directly deploying AI agents and multimodal large models to vehicles.June 5th - According to CNBC, data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed unexpectedly strong job growth in May as the U.S. labor market continued its robust expansion. The breadth of job growth in May broadened, with multiple industries recording solid increases. The leisure and hospitality industry added 70,000 jobs, far exceeding the 14,000 monthly average increase over the past year, leading all industries. Local government employment increased by 55,000. The healthcare industry, which has historically contributed the most to job growth, added 35,000 jobs, roughly in line with its historical average; the social assistance industry added 12,000 jobs. In recent days, Federal Reserve officials have become more optimistic about the labor market outlook and have shifted their focus more towards persistent inflation. Persistent inflationary pressures have largely ruled out the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9040 As Attention Shifts To US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:27

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade lacklusterly above the crucial support level of 0.9036 in the early Tokyo session. Investors are shifting their focus to Wednesday's release of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, making it difficult for the Swiss Franc to gain traction.

 

As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate, S&P500 futures have pared some of their gains. The market's anxiety has been alleviated by the increasing intensity of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan Island. In addition, concerns of a recession are likely to cause volatility in US equities.

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in an interview with CNN that the recent banking turmoil caused by the dissolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States.  Despite the robustness and security of the banking system, the recent turmoil in the financial system is "another weight on the scale" toward recession, he added.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the 102.00 support level ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the consensus, headline inflation will fall from 6.0% to 5.2%. In addition, the headline monthly CPI would decelerate to 0.3% from 0.4% previously reported. As a consequence of oil prices remaining low in March, inflationary pressures are anticipated to become evident.

 

In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, is anticipated to increase to 5.6% from 5.5%. The tenacity of inflationary pressures is maintained by the resiliency of demand for essential products, as a result of a higher labor cost index. A similar event could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates again at its May monetary policy meeting.

 

Regarding the Swiss Franc, Swiss markets are suspended on Easter Monday. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will have an impact on the Swiss Franc.

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