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Real-time News
On July 12, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces launched a large-scale attack and destroyed multiple Ukrainian military facilities from the night of July 11 to the early morning of July 12. The Ministry stated that Russian forces attacked and destroyed Ukrainian fuel, energy, and transportation facilities, long-range drone storage points, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 158 regions. In the past 24 hours, Russian forces destroyed 585 drones and 11 aerial bombs launched by Ukrainian forces. The acting governor of Belgorod Oblast, Shuvaev, posted on social media on July 12 that in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces launched more than 100 attacks on 11 regions of the oblast, resulting in one death and seven injuries. Russian forces intercepted 111 drones. According to Russian media reports, due to the drone attacks, several Russian cities temporarily restricted civilian aircraft takeoffs and landings from the night of July 11 to the early morning of July 12, causing delays to dozens of flights.1. Monday: ① Data: Chinas June M2 money supply annual rate (TBD). ② Event: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally around 6-9 PM Beijing time). 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP Employment Change, US June CPI and Core CPI data; Chinas June trade balance. ② Event: Fed Governor Waller speaks; State Council Information Office holds press conference on import and export situation in the first half of 2026; Fed Chairman Warsh attends hearing on the House Financial Services Committees "Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" [simultaneous interpretation]. ③ Earnings Reports: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (pre-market). 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventory weekly report, EIA crude oil inventory weekly report, US June PPI year-on-year and month-on-month rates, US July New York Fed Manufacturing Index; Chinas Q2 GDP year-on-year rate, June retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, June industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size year-on-year, Chinas June total electricity consumption (tentative); Eurozone May industrial production month-on-month rate; Canadas May wholesale sales month-on-month rate, Bank of Canada interest rate decision until July 15. ② Events: The National Energy Administration releases monthly electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, participates in a fireside chat; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech; the National Bureau of Statistics releases a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the national economic situation; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh attends a hearing on the "Federal Reserves Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee [simultaneous interpretation]; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers hold a monetary policy press conference. ③ Earnings Reports: Morgan Stanley, ASML, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock (pre-market). 4. Thursday: ① Data: South Koreas central bank interest rate decision to July 16; UKs May three-month GDP month-on-month rate, May manufacturing output month-on-month rate, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, May industrial production month-on-month rate; Eurozones May seasonally adjusted trade balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales month-on-month rate, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories month-on-month rate, June pending home sales index month-on-month rate, EIA natural gas weekly report. ② Events: The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalaim speaks; Changxin Technology begins its IPO subscription. ③ Earnings Reports: TSMC (pre-market), Netflix, Alcoa (after-market). 5. Friday: ① Data: Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, June final CPI annual rate; US June annualized housing starts, June building permits, June import price index month-on-month, June industrial production month-on-month, July preliminary one-year inflation rate expectations, July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. ② Events: Domestic refined oil prices will enter a new round of adjustment window; Dallas Fed President Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member, will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy; the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2026) will be held in Shanghai from July 17 to July 20. ③ Market Closure: Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea will be closed for one day. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending July 17.July 12th - A Wall Street Journal survey of economists this month showed that the impact of the war with Iran on the US economy is far less severe than economists had previously feared. However, the bad news is that the war has made inflation, already above the Federal Reserves 2% target, more stubborn and has removed the Feds room for interest rate cuts. Economists views have changed significantly compared to the April survey, about a month after the outbreak of the war. Forecasters now expect the US economy to grow by 2.1% this year, based on inflation-adjusted GDP from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026, up from the 2% forecast in April. Economists average probability of a recession within the next 12 months has fallen to 25% from 33% in April, the lowest level since early 2025. However, while the growth outlook has improved, concerns about inflation have also intensified. Economists expect the CPI to rise by 3.4% in the 12 months ending in December, up from 3.2% in the April survey. Inflation concerns have outweighed the wars boost to energy costs. Economists predict that PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, will rise by 3.2% in 2026, up from 2.9% in April.July 12th - In response to the impact of the typhoon on communication networks, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) closely monitored weather changes and network operation, urgently dispatched national emergency communication support teams and equipment, and activated 5G inter-network roaming services to support the communication needs of flood control and disaster relief command centers and affected residents. According to statistics, as of 12:00 on July 12th, the information and communication industry had deployed 68,000 personnel, 24,000 emergency communication vehicles, 31,000 generators, 130 satellite phones, and 27 drones, sending 330 million warning text messages. A total of 11,000 damaged base stations have been restored.On July 12, Liu Guozhong, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, conducted research in Beijing. He emphasized the need to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and directives, as well as the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting, and to implement the arrangements of the State Councils executive meeting. He stressed the importance of firmly establishing a bottom-line mentality and a mindset of extreme limits, fully implementing political responsibilities, meticulously implementing measures to prevent and respond to torrential rains and floods, making every effort to ensure the safe passage of reservoirs through the flood season, and effectively safeguarding the lives and property of the people.
