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On September 20th, the German Institute for Economic Research released its autumn economic forecast, significantly raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 1.2%. The institute stated that the upward revision was mainly due to strong economic growth in the first half of this year. However, the institute predicts that "growth momentum will slow again in the second half of 2026." This is attributed to the expiration of special export incentives, high energy prices suppressing private consumption, and the continued crisis in the construction industry, primarily driven by government investment. The institute projects German economic growth to be slightly below 1% in 2027. The institute also warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, international trade conflicts, and declining water levels in major European rivers could all negatively impact the German economy. Furthermore, influenced by rising energy prices, the institute predicts that Germanys inflation rate in 2026 will be slightly above 2.5%, while consumption is expected to grow by only 0.3%.September 20 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Tangshan Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire shooting activities will be conducted in parts of the Bohai Sea from 00:00 on September 21 to 24:00 on September 24, and entry is prohibited.On September 20, local time, the Central Command of Irans Hatem Anbia issued a statement saying that intelligence indicated the United States, in an attempt to cover up its failures and gain benefits from the war, decided, with the tacit approval of certain Middle Eastern countries, to take hostile action against Iran again after a joint meeting in a European country. The statement warned that if the United States makes any mistakes against Iran, all its bases and interests in the region will suffer sustained, effective, and devastating blows without reservation. The statement also indicated that Iran warned regional countries that if they continue to pursue a "double-dealing policy" towards Iran and cooperate with its enemies, they will be considered accomplices; at that point, they will no longer be able to expect restraint or tolerance from the Iranian armed forces.On September 20th, local time, explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Kyiv Mayor Viktor Klitschko reported that Russian military drones were attacking the city, and Kyivs air defense system was operational. There has been no response from Russia at this time.According to Iranian state media, the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that the United States is planning new actions against Iran with the permission of its regional allies. The plan was coordinated and formulated at a European summit.

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9040 As Attention Shifts To US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:27

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade lacklusterly above the crucial support level of 0.9036 in the early Tokyo session. Investors are shifting their focus to Wednesday's release of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, making it difficult for the Swiss Franc to gain traction.

 

As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate, S&P500 futures have pared some of their gains. The market's anxiety has been alleviated by the increasing intensity of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan Island. In addition, concerns of a recession are likely to cause volatility in US equities.

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in an interview with CNN that the recent banking turmoil caused by the dissolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States.  Despite the robustness and security of the banking system, the recent turmoil in the financial system is "another weight on the scale" toward recession, he added.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the 102.00 support level ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the consensus, headline inflation will fall from 6.0% to 5.2%. In addition, the headline monthly CPI would decelerate to 0.3% from 0.4% previously reported. As a consequence of oil prices remaining low in March, inflationary pressures are anticipated to become evident.

 

In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, is anticipated to increase to 5.6% from 5.5%. The tenacity of inflationary pressures is maintained by the resiliency of demand for essential products, as a result of a higher labor cost index. A similar event could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates again at its May monetary policy meeting.

 

Regarding the Swiss Franc, Swiss markets are suspended on Easter Monday. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will have an impact on the Swiss Franc.

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