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July 11th - Industry insiders stated that historically, during periods of high demand in the memory chip industry, manufacturers tend to simultaneously expand production capacity, leading to a concentrated release of new capacity, a price crash, and industry-wide losses. Subsequently, manufacturers collectively reduce capital expenditures, and when demand recovers, another boom occurs – this cycle constitutes the industrys unique cyclical pattern. Since reaching its peak in late June, US memory chip stocks have experienced a collective correction due to concerns about overcapacity, triggered by news such as Metas sale of computing power. Data shows that industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital have all seen their stock prices fall by more than 20% in the past few weeks. Analysts point out that the underlying logic supporting current demand for memory chips is facing a reassessment, with the core variable being whether the technological gap between various AI large-scale models will continue to narrow. Analysts also pointed out that the memory chip industry is undergoing a profound change in its business model: in the past, memory was more like a commodity, with prices fluctuating with the market, and contracts were mostly on a quarterly or annual basis; now, cloud vendors and AI data centers are increasingly signing long-term supply agreements with original equipment manufacturers for three to five years, with price ranges, minimum purchase quantities, and customer deposits, in order to ensure critical supply.July 11th - Typhoon Bavi, the ninth typhoon of the year, is expected to impact eastern Hubei, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from July 11th to 13th. According to the Yangtze River Maritime Safety Administration, to ensure typhoon safety, following the requirements of "early assessment, early warning, early deployment, early inspection, and early evacuation," the administration raised the typhoon emergency response level for the Anhui-Sichuan section of the Yangtze River main channel to Level II at 18:00 on July 11th.July 11 – The European Union is developing a “solidarity tool” to support businesses in shifting supplies of critical goods and to cushion the impact of trade conflicts. According to sources, this tool requires funding, and member states are currently negotiating the EU’s next multi-year budget. The exact amount needed is unclear, but given the size of the industries and trade involved, the funding requirements are likely substantial. Some member states are currently pushing for spending cuts. The tool was developed by the EU’s executive body. Sources indicate that national envoys have been briefed on the tool this week.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a magnitude 3.3 earthquake occurred at 19:14 on July 11 in Eryuan County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province (26.12 degrees north latitude, 99.86 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 11 kilometers.Russian Deputy Prime Minister: We will begin importing petroleum products this month.

USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.9040 As Attention Shifts To US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:27

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade lacklusterly above the crucial support level of 0.9036 in the early Tokyo session. Investors are shifting their focus to Wednesday's release of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, making it difficult for the Swiss Franc to gain traction.

 

As tensions between China and Taiwan escalate, S&P500 futures have pared some of their gains. The market's anxiety has been alleviated by the increasing intensity of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan Island. In addition, concerns of a recession are likely to cause volatility in US equities.

 

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in an interview with CNN that the recent banking turmoil caused by the dissolution of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank has increased the likelihood of a recession in the United States.  Despite the robustness and security of the banking system, the recent turmoil in the financial system is "another weight on the scale" toward recession, he added.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the 102.00 support level ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. According to the consensus, headline inflation will fall from 6.0% to 5.2%. In addition, the headline monthly CPI would decelerate to 0.3% from 0.4% previously reported. As a consequence of oil prices remaining low in March, inflationary pressures are anticipated to become evident.

 

In contrast, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, is anticipated to increase to 5.6% from 5.5%. The tenacity of inflationary pressures is maintained by the resiliency of demand for essential products, as a result of a higher labor cost index. A similar event could compel the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates again at its May monetary policy meeting.

 

Regarding the Swiss Franc, Swiss markets are suspended on Easter Monday. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data will have an impact on the Swiss Franc.