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On April 12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Brehman stated that the RBNZ will soon announce measures to increase the transparency of its monetary policy decisions. Currently, the RBNZs Monetary Policy Committee determines the official cash rate either through consensus or by vote, but the individual members decision-making processes are not disclosed. When asked on Sunday whether she supported making the voting results public, Brehman said, "This is a decision made between the Monetary Policy Committee and the Minister for Finance. We have completed the relevant procedures and will announce any possible adjustments soon." Brehman joined the RBNZ from the Swedish Federal Reserve in early December. The RBNZ is considered one of the most transparent central banks globally. She now holds press conferences after each interest rate decision (instead of just quarterly), and from 2027 onwards, the Monetary Policy Committee will make eight interest rate decisions annually, up from the current seven.According to Irans Tasnim News Agency on the 12th, the time, place, and plan for the next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States have not yet been announced.With the US-Iran talks concluded, US Vice President Vance has left Pakistan, and the Iranian delegation will also depart on the 12th.April 12 – To promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and enhance the well-being of compatriots, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, in consultation with relevant departments, has been authorized to issue the following policy measures: Explore the establishment of a regular communication mechanism between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Communist Party of China (CPC). Establish a formalized platform for two-way exchanges between young people of the two parties. Promote water, electricity, gas, and bridge connections between coastal Fujian and Kinmen and Matsu, where conditions permit, to enhance the interests and well-being of the people of Kinmen and Matsu. Promote the full resumption of normalized direct cross-strait air passenger flights to further facilitate personnel exchanges between the two sides. Establish a communication mechanism on the basis of adhering to the "1992 Consensus" and opposing "Taiwan independence" to facilitate the import of Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products that meet inspection and quarantine standards into the mainland.April 12 - According to Iranian sources early this morning, the Iran-US negotiations ended minutes earlier, with no agreement reached due to "US greed and ambition."

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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