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On May 19th, international gold and silver prices were sold off due to market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this year triggered by better-than-expected US inflation data. While the Shenzhen Shuibei Gold and Jewelry Market remained bustling, the sharp price fluctuations affected consumer willingness to trade, and many merchants adjusted their business strategies accordingly. One store manager stated, "Sales have dropped significantly, down by about 50% year-on-year. Weve gone back to wholesale. Gold transactions are low, and silver has seen a precipitous drop; investors are basically not coming anymore." In contrast to the sluggish retail market, the processing of gold and silver products has been very active recently. The head of a processing company told reporters that their business volume has increased significantly compared to the same period last year, with many customers no longer frequently buying and selling their existing gold and silver products, instead focusing on processing and planning to hold them long-term.On May 19th, Anli Group stated during a targeted investor survey that its cooperation with Apple has deepened, with new projects under development. Simultaneously, the company is actively contacting brands such as Google and Amazon to develop and expand new application scenarios and increase market share. While the companys R&D of composite materials for the semiconductor field has achieved some mass production, the order amounts are small and will not have a significant impact on the companys revenue in the short term. Going forward, the company will maintain existing cooperative clients and ensure stable product delivery while actively seeking new clients to expand its market reach.A spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that only two liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which clearly does not mean that normal navigation has resumed.Citigroup raised its price target for Micron Technology (MU.O) from $425 to $840.On May 19, Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Manturov in Beijing. Ding stated that under the strategic guidance of President Xi Jinping and President Putin, relevant parties in China and Russia have worked together to maintain a good momentum of investment cooperation between the two countries. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination and the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia. Both sides should take this opportunity to further implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, leverage the coordinating role of the China-Russia Investment Cooperation Committee, steadily advance key projects, expand cooperation areas, achieve more practical results, and continuously inject strong impetus into the development of bilateral relations. Manturov stated that Russia is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with China, enrich the content of cooperation, actively address issues of mutual concern, and continuously improve the level of investment cooperation between the two countries.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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