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The yield on five-year Japanese government bonds rose 2.5 basis points to 1.850%.On April 10th, it was reported that AliExpress, Alibabas cross-border e-commerce platform, is preparing to hold a closed-door brand summit in Shenzhen on April 15th. The summit is strictly by invitation only to leading brands, and open registration is not accepted. 99 brands, including Xiaomi and Dreame, have been invited, and invitations have been disbursed. It is understood that half of the speakers are from overseas, and the combined overseas sales of the attending brands exceed one trillion yuan.On April 10th, reports surfaced that Amazon would begin a new round of layoffs in May, with an estimated 14,000 jobs affected, primarily in core business units including AWS, retail, and human resources. Some teams in China were even rumored to be completely eliminated. On April 10th, Amazon stated that these reports were untrue.On April 10th, Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that Innoscience (02577.HK) management indicated in the analyst briefing following the 2025 fiscal year results that downstream demand is expected to be strong in 2026 due to the increasing penetration rate of gallium nitride (GaN) in various end markets. Management projects total revenue for fiscal year 2026 to reach RMB 2 billion to 2.5 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 65% to 106%, with gross margin potentially further improving to over 15%. The bank reiterated its buy rating on Innoscience, but lowered its target price from HKD 108 to HKD 92. Bank of America stated that due to a more conservative gross margin forecast, it lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for Innoscience for 2026 and 2027, but raised its revenue forecasts by 3% to 4% for the same period.On April 10th, Thai Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas stated that due to the Middle East conflict, Thailand expects oil prices to remain high for up to two years, foreshadowing sustained pressure on this net energy importer already grappling with rising costs and slowing growth. Speaking to lawmakers during a parliamentary debate following a government policy statement, Ekniti noted that energy infrastructure in the Middle East has been severely damaged, and oil and gas supplies could take one to two years to stabilize. He added that the government plans to accelerate the adoption of solar, biofuels, and other renewable energy sources to cushion the impact of high energy costs on households and businesses. The energy shock has already affected the economic outlook. Economists have begun to lower their growth forecasts for Thailand as rising fuel costs have dampened consumption and disrupted exports and tourism—two core drivers of the Thai economy.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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