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June 21 – It was learned from Iran on the 21st that the Iranian negotiating delegation has arrived in Zurich, Switzerland. The Swiss Foreign Ministry also confirmed the arrival of the Iranian delegation. The Swiss Foreign Ministry stated on social media that it welcomed the Iranian delegations arrival in Switzerland, and that the delegation is en route to Bürgenberg as part of implementing the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran.On June 21, a symposium on the 9th China International Import Expo (CIIE) was held in Oslo, Norway, with representatives from approximately 40 Norwegian companies and institutions in attendance. Norwegian participants stated that all sectors in Norway highly value economic and trade cooperation with China. The CIIE, as a high-level platform for opening up to the outside world, provides Norwegian companies with a practical and efficient path to promote high-quality products, cutting-edge technologies, and professional services, and to cultivate the Chinese market. Norway will continue to pool resources and actively mobilize various Norwegian companies to participate in the CIIE, further strengthening the mutually beneficial ties between China and Norway and improving the quality and efficiency of bilateral trade cooperation.Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Political Affairs Officer: The real guarantee of any agreement comes from our strength.A political affairs official from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated: "We are defending our rights through negotiations, not making concessions."On June 21, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it is continuing military operations within the "safe zone" in southern Lebanon, with a current focus on dismantling a large Hezbollah tunnel system housing dozens of militants. Meanwhile, the IDF has ceased fire in other parts of Lebanon. The IDF stated that it has received instructions from high-ranking political officials to implement a ceasefire. However, the IDF emphasized that its forces will continue to focus on destroying Hezbollah infrastructure within its "safe zone" and will continue to strike "imminent threats" outside the "safe zone."

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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