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On January 26th, Moodys Analytics stated in a report that Australian consumer price data to be released on Wednesday is expected to show that the year-on-year overall inflation rate in December may have slowed to around 3% from 3.4% in November. The report stated that this was mainly driven by a favorable base effect in electricity prices and the normalization of holiday travel prices. However, the report added that food inflation and sticky price pressures generally present in the services sector are likely to keep core inflation around 3% to 3.2%, thus preventing a more significant decline.On January 26th, Vishnu Varatan, Head of Macro Research for Asia (excluding Japan) at Mizuho Securities, stated in an email that Japans latest currency intervention measures may be more effective because the threat of real-time intervention is curbing unchecked one-way bearish bets on the yen. He noted that the Japanese Ministry of Finance has escalated its yen warning and adopted a more aggressive stance, particularly maintaining the "real-time" nature of its intervention intentions. Varatan added that comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessenter also amplified the threat of coordinated intervention. He further stated that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis explicit warning that "(the authorities) will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal volatility" is sending a warning signal to the yen and Japanese government bond markets.Nomura Securities raised its target price for Alibaba (BABA.N) from $193.00 to $237.00.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: We are aware that there are indeed fluctuations in domestic and international financial markets.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara declined to comment when asked about reports regarding currency inquiries.

Even as the BoJ vs. Fed Difference Remains in the Spotlight, USD/JPY Tracks Below 134.00 on Lackluster Yields

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 14:02

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As Monday begins in Tokyo, USD/JPY falls from its intraday high and stabilizes around 133.80. As a consequence, the Yen pair is unable to extend its previous day's gains due to lax market conditions preceding this week's key data/events. In addition to a paucity of significant data or events, USD/JPY traders have recently struggled with inconsistent triggers and sluggish returns.

 

The previous day, USD/JPY reached its highest level in a week as primarily positive US data dampened expectations for a policy shift and rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Previously, the USD/JPY pair increased due to hawkish Fed discussions. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), stated that "recent developments are consistent with one more rate hike." According to Reuters, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed this topic and stated that additional rate hikes are necessary because the Fed has not made significant progress toward its inflation objective. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he still needs to examine the statistics. The lawmaker said, "However, let's keep in mind that we've raised a lot of money; some of the delay may be reflected in today's retail sales number."

 

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its strength due to the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, who supports the Japanese central bank's easy-money policy.

 

Recent geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, as well as China's desire to collaborate with Russia to enhance regional and global security, have weighed on the USD/JPY pair and agitated the market.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction amidst these wagers following Wall Street's pessimistic close, as bond yields remain neutral despite weekly gains.

 

The preliminary readings of the US PMIs for April and the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be crucial to monitor going forward. The previously mentioned risk factors and central banker comments are also significant.


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