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On December 14th, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on the 13th that if the EU were to utilize frozen Russian assets, it would trigger serious problems. Orbán explained that, firstly, such a move would erode public trust in European trustees; secondly, the Russian central bank has filed a lawsuit against the European Clearing Bank (ECB), which holds a large amount of frozen Russian assets, potentially putting the ECB under pressure to repay its debts. Furthermore, given the enormous sums involved, the economy of Belgium, where the ECB is located, could face collapse.The Ukrainian POW Reconciliation Center reports that Belarus has transferred 114 civilians to Ukraine, including Ukrainian and Belarusian citizens.The U.S. Embassy in Lithuania reported that nine prisoners, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialyatsky, have been transferred from Belarus to Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. Other prisoners are being transferred from Belarus to Ukraine.On December 13, the U.S. Embassy in Vilnius (the capital of the Republic of Lithuania) announced that Belarus had released 123 prisoners following a meeting between U.S. Special Envoy Cole and Belarusian President Lukashenko, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialyatsky. The released prisoners, who were transferred to Lithuania, included Belarusian citizens, U.S. citizens, and citizens of other countries. The U.S. will continue diplomatic efforts to release the remaining political prisoners in Belarus. The embassy stated that the U.S. is prepared to engage with Belarus in a manner consistent with U.S. interests.The Belarusian Presidential Palace announced that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has pardoned 123 prisoners in connection with an agreement reached with the United States. Those pardoned include individuals convicted of terrorism, extremism, and espionage.

Even as the BoJ vs. Fed Difference Remains in the Spotlight, USD/JPY Tracks Below 134.00 on Lackluster Yields

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 14:02

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As Monday begins in Tokyo, USD/JPY falls from its intraday high and stabilizes around 133.80. As a consequence, the Yen pair is unable to extend its previous day's gains due to lax market conditions preceding this week's key data/events. In addition to a paucity of significant data or events, USD/JPY traders have recently struggled with inconsistent triggers and sluggish returns.

 

The previous day, USD/JPY reached its highest level in a week as primarily positive US data dampened expectations for a policy shift and rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Previously, the USD/JPY pair increased due to hawkish Fed discussions. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), stated that "recent developments are consistent with one more rate hike." According to Reuters, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed this topic and stated that additional rate hikes are necessary because the Fed has not made significant progress toward its inflation objective. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he still needs to examine the statistics. The lawmaker said, "However, let's keep in mind that we've raised a lot of money; some of the delay may be reflected in today's retail sales number."

 

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its strength due to the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, who supports the Japanese central bank's easy-money policy.

 

Recent geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, as well as China's desire to collaborate with Russia to enhance regional and global security, have weighed on the USD/JPY pair and agitated the market.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction amidst these wagers following Wall Street's pessimistic close, as bond yields remain neutral despite weekly gains.

 

The preliminary readings of the US PMIs for April and the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be crucial to monitor going forward. The previously mentioned risk factors and central banker comments are also significant.


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