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South Korean customs: South Korea imported 10.8 million tons of crude oil in November, compared with 11.3 million tons in the same period last year.On December 14th, according to a report by Ukraines Interfax news agency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the US demand for a unilateral withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from eastern Ukraine and the establishment of a "free economic zone" there is "unfair," and Ukraine needs to realistically view the peace process. Zelenskyy told the media that according to the USs "compromise plan," Russian troops would not be allowed to enter parts of eastern Ukraine, while Ukrainian troops would withdraw from these areas and establish a "free economic zone." "I think this is unfair because there is no stipulation on who will manage the economic zone," Zelenskyy said. He added that if Ukrainian troops withdraw, Russian troops should also withdraw, a problem that currently "has no answer, but is very sensitive and thorny." If a "buffer zone" is established along the military contact line, with only police deployed to maintain order, and troops withdrawn, "then the problem becomes very simple."December 14 - According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck off the coast of the Noto Peninsula, Japan, at approximately 11:26 PM local time on December 14, with a depth of 10 kilometers. There is no risk of a tsunami.On December 14th, the Financial Times analysis pointed out that given ECB President Christine Lagardes view that the bank is in "good shape," investors unanimously expect the ECB to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% next week, instead focusing on its economic forecasts. Lagarde stated this week that ratemakers may again raise their growth forecasts for the Eurozone at their meeting. These stronger growth forecasts, along with persistent inflation, have recently led traders to increase their bets on an ECB rate hike next year. However, as the potential shift in monetary policy direction remains controversial, and this change has only recently been reflected in swap market pricing, traders will pay particular attention to clues about the timing of rate hikes; any adjustments to policy signals are expected to be subtle. George Moran, a Eurozone economist at RBC Capital Markets, said he expects the ECB not to raise rates in 2026 because "cyclical tailwinds are likely temporary." He added that the ECB has "made it clear that it does not want to overreact to temporary deviations from its targets."On December 14th, according to the Ukrainian National News Agency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the media that he had informed members of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) to prepare contingency plans for a possible election soon. Zelenskyy said, "Most importantly, I will not cling to the presidency. I believe Ukraine should be prepared for any changes." He said he had asked partners for help in resolving election security issues, and he had also informed Verkhovna Rada members to prepare contingency plans for a possible election soon. Zelenskyy said he had received "signals" from the United States and President Trump regarding the Ukrainian presidential election, adding, "Whether these signals come only from the United States or also from Russia, I do not want to comment at this time."

Even as the BoJ vs. Fed Difference Remains in the Spotlight, USD/JPY Tracks Below 134.00 on Lackluster Yields

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 14:02

USD:JPY.png 

 

As Monday begins in Tokyo, USD/JPY falls from its intraday high and stabilizes around 133.80. As a consequence, the Yen pair is unable to extend its previous day's gains due to lax market conditions preceding this week's key data/events. In addition to a paucity of significant data or events, USD/JPY traders have recently struggled with inconsistent triggers and sluggish returns.

 

The previous day, USD/JPY reached its highest level in a week as primarily positive US data dampened expectations for a policy shift and rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2023. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Previously, the USD/JPY pair increased due to hawkish Fed discussions. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed), stated that "recent developments are consistent with one more rate hike." According to Reuters, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed this topic and stated that additional rate hikes are necessary because the Fed has not made significant progress toward its inflation objective. In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that he still needs to examine the statistics. The lawmaker said, "However, let's keep in mind that we've raised a lot of money; some of the delay may be reflected in today's retail sales number."

 

In contrast, the USD/JPY pair was able to maintain its strength due to the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, who supports the Japanese central bank's easy-money policy.

 

Recent geopolitical tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, as well as China's desire to collaborate with Russia to enhance regional and global security, have weighed on the USD/JPY pair and agitated the market.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction amidst these wagers following Wall Street's pessimistic close, as bond yields remain neutral despite weekly gains.

 

The preliminary readings of the US PMIs for April and the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be crucial to monitor going forward. The previously mentioned risk factors and central banker comments are also significant.


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