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August 10th - Data shows that Eurozone investor confidence returned to positive territory in August, marking its fourth consecutive month of increase, thanks to a significant improvement in current economic conditions and continued market confidence in the economic recovery. Sentix data indicates that the improvement was primarily driven by a significant rebound in investors assessment of the current situation, with expectations indicators also improving. Sentix added that the confidence shock triggered by the Iran war appears to have been partially absorbed, although high energy costs and weak orders continue to weigh on the outlook. Further stabilization of the German economy is expected, with stronger economic data and 0.2% growth in the second quarter helping the country avoid another recession.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are in dialogue with all countries in the region on building trust and endogenous security mechanisms.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7442 against the US dollar at 16:30 on August 10, up 59 points from the previous trading day.The Eurozones Sentix investor confidence index for August was 0.9, compared to a forecast of -0.5 and a previous reading of -3.1.On August 10th, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that its current baseline expectation is for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current interest rate stance and continue using hawkish language. This combination of "holding steady but not turning dovish" means that the interest rate decision itself has limited guidance for the short-term movement of the Australian dollar. A more market-relevant signal is the expectation that the RBA will raise its unemployment rate forecast while simultaneously lowering its overall and core inflation forecasts. A substantial downward revision to the inflation forecast, even if the RBA maintains a pro-rate-hike stance in its rhetoric, would be interpreted by the market as opening the door to further easing. Further escalation of the Middle East conflict could lead to additional cost shifts in the third quarter, a factor of uncertainty that could force the RBA to adopt a more hawkish stance than simply supported by data.

USD/CAD Bears Anticipate Additional Losses Towards $1.34

Alina Haynes

Apr 13, 2023 14:22

 USD:CAD.png

 

Following a three-day losing trend, the USD/CAD continues to trade near the weekly low around 1.3440 in the early hours of Thursday.

 

In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies yesterday's pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March uptrend, as well as yesterday's retreat from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), in conjunction with negative MACD signals.

 

Notably, the RSI (14) line is approaching the oversold region, indicating the USD/CAD exchange rate has limited downside potential.

 

Consequently, a horizontal area containing multiple lows marked since March 3 around 1.3400 becomes the most crucial support for pair traders to track. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level encircling 1.3390 provides immediate support.

 

A irregular decline towards February's low of 1.3262 cannot be ruled out if the USD/CAD defies RSI conditions and descends below 1.3390.

 

In contrast, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3490, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, restricts immediate USD/CAD recovery movements prior to the 1.3535 100-exponential moving average (EMA) barrier.

 

If the USD/CAD exchange rate remains firmer than 1.3535, a convergence of the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3565 will pose a formidable obstacle for buyers.

 

At the time of publication, USD/CAD investors should remain cautious unless they observe a clear break above the previous support line from early February, which was near 1.3670.