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On March 16, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations today (March 16) through a fixed-quantity, interest rate bidding process with multiple price levels, for a term of six months (182 days). Since 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repurchase agreements mature in March, this operation by the PBOC means that the amount of six-month outright reverse repurchase agreements renewed this month has been reduced by 100 billion yuan.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims simultaneous strikes against four US military bases. 2. Irans Supreme Leader reiterates "will seek reparations from the enemy." 3. Iran claims most of the missiles launched so far were manufactured 10 years ago. 4. US-Israel attacks have damaged over 40,000 civilian facilities in Iran. 5. Iran arrests 13 people suspected of espionage and sabotage. 6. Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims it will "hunt down" Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. 7. Iran claims to have launched a large-scale attack on Israeli security centers and police headquarters. 8. Irans Foreign Minister states the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring the war never resumes and paying reparations. 9. Irans Foreign Minister: Welcomes any regional initiatives that can justly end the war. Never made a ceasefire or negotiation request. 10. Iranian media: Irans Foreign Minister states that Iran is prepared to form an investigative committee with regional countries to investigate the targets of the attacks. Israel may be behind the attacks on civilian targets in Arab countries. ②United States 1. The US called on multiple countries to send warships to the Middle East, with South Korea, Japan, France, and other countries responding. 2. US media: The US government may announce a multinational joint escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week. 3. US Central Command: The Iranian Foreign Minister claimed that the US is using one-way attack drones to attack Gulf countries and shifted the blame to Iran. This is a lie. 4. US Energy Secretary: "Clearly" we will have the support of other countries on the Strait of Hormuz issue. The conflict with Iran will end in the "next few weeks," after which oil supplies will recover and energy prices will fall. ③Israel 1. The Israeli military claimed to have struck an Iranian drone launch site. 2. Israeli media: Iranian missile debris hit the US consulate building in Israel. 3. The Israeli Prime Minister released a video confirming he is still "alive" and said he will continue action against Iran. 4. Israeli military spokesperson: Military action against Iran will continue for at least another three weeks. 5. Israeli Foreign Minister: Israel is not facing a shortage of missile interceptors. 6. Israeli military: Expanding the strike range on Iranian infrastructure in more areas of western and central Iran. 7. According to Israel Today: A senior Israeli official stated that the possibility of overthrowing the Iranian regime is lower than initially estimated. ④ Other 1. Switzerland refused to allow two US military aircraft to fly over its airspace. 2. Bahrains worlds top aluminum smelter initiated a production cut plan. 3. Iraq claims that Baghdad International Airport and its surrounding area were attacked by rockets, injuring four people. 4. The British Prime Minister spoke with the US President, mentioning the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Iraqi Ministry of Oil: The Kurdish Ministry of Natural Resources currently refuses to resume oil exports. 6. The French Foreign Minister will discuss joint naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz with EU foreign ministers on Monday. 7. Iraqi Ministry of Oil: Ready to resume exports via the Ceyhan pipeline, with daily exports not exceeding 300,000 barrels. 8. Senior Kurdistan government official: Welcomes the use of pipelines for oil exports, but only if the dollar embargo on the region is lifted. Gaza Situation: 1. Gaza medical personnel: An airstrike targeting a police car in the Gaza Strip killed eight people. 2. Israel announced that the Rafah border crossing will reopen in both directions starting March 18. Other developments: 1. The Syrian transitional government has taken over the US military base in Rumailan. 2. Israeli Foreign Minister: Israel does not intend to hold direct talks with the Lebanese government in the coming days. 3. Lebanese Ministry of Health: Since March 2, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have resulted in 850 deaths. 4. According to Israels GLZ radio: Israeli Energy Minister Cohen stated that the government is considering canceling the gas agreement with Lebanon. On March 16, Madagascars interim head of state, Landrianirina, appointed Mamitiana Rajonarison as the new prime minister in the capital, Antananarivo, on the evening of March 15. Landrianirina expressed his hope that the new prime minister would quickly form a government, implement national reconstruction policies, and achieve tangible results. Rajonarison was a former officer in Madagascars National Gendarmerie and became the director of the Financial Intelligence Bureau in April 2021, an agency primarily responsible for combating money laundering and terrorist financing.On March 16, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba posted a message late on March 15 on his social media account, Telegram, reiterating that Iran will "demand reparations from its enemies" regardless of the circumstances. If the enemies refuse to pay, Iran will confiscate assets of equivalent value; if confiscation is not possible, Iran will destroy assets of equal value.March 16 - According to a report by Irans Fars News Agency on the evening of March 15, a spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that most of the missiles currently being launched by Iran were "produced 10 years ago," and many missiles produced by Iran after the "12-Day War" in June last year "have not yet been used," and many of Irans missile arsenals "remain untouched."

USD/CAD Bears Anticipate Additional Losses Towards $1.34

Alina Haynes

Apr 13, 2023 14:22

 USD:CAD.png

 

Following a three-day losing trend, the USD/CAD continues to trade near the weekly low around 1.3440 in the early hours of Thursday.

 

In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies yesterday's pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March uptrend, as well as yesterday's retreat from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), in conjunction with negative MACD signals.

 

Notably, the RSI (14) line is approaching the oversold region, indicating the USD/CAD exchange rate has limited downside potential.

 

Consequently, a horizontal area containing multiple lows marked since March 3 around 1.3400 becomes the most crucial support for pair traders to track. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level encircling 1.3390 provides immediate support.

 

A irregular decline towards February's low of 1.3262 cannot be ruled out if the USD/CAD defies RSI conditions and descends below 1.3390.

 

In contrast, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3490, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, restricts immediate USD/CAD recovery movements prior to the 1.3535 100-exponential moving average (EMA) barrier.

 

If the USD/CAD exchange rate remains firmer than 1.3535, a convergence of the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3565 will pose a formidable obstacle for buyers.

 

At the time of publication, USD/CAD investors should remain cautious unless they observe a clear break above the previous support line from early February, which was near 1.3670.