EUR/USD
1.14460
0.260%
Gold
4101.13
0.582%
Oil
73.097
-1.904%
USD/JPY
162.244
-0.214%
GBP/USD
1.34243
0.265%
GBP/JPY
217.806
0.057%
Real-time News
1. Sudden deterioration of geopolitical situation: The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, with Trump initially stating that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was "over" and reinstating the naval blockade, even issuing new threats of war regarding the Iranian situation. Although he subsequently attempted to de-escalate the situation, the risk to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased dramatically as the conflict reignites. 2. Hawkish first minutes from the new Fed chairman: The minutes of the June policy meeting chaired by new Chairman Warsh revealed significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the economic outlook. Most officials emphasized that "upside risks to price stability remain high" and tended to remove language suggesting easing from previous decisions; a few officials even stated that there were reasons to raise interest rates last month. 3. Closely matched interest rate path forecasts: Officials identified the AI investment boom, high commodity prices (Middle East conflict), and tariffs as the three major risks to sticky inflation. Post-meeting forecasts showed that 9 out of 19 officials expected at least one rate hike this year (6 of whom expected two), while another 9 expected rates to remain unchanged or be cut; Chairman Warsh declined to submit his personal forecast. If inflation remains high, almost all participants agreed that further interest rate hikes and policy tightening are necessary. 4. Everbright Futures View: Renewed tensions in the Middle East have caused short-term market trading to revert to the "inflation and interest rate hike" logic, further impacting gold. Golds current bottoming-out range is unstable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policy repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears; caution is advised. Close attention should be paid to the US June CPI data on July 14-15 and Warshs first congressional hearing. 5. Jinyuan Futures View: Trumps new threats against Iran have escalated the situation again. Coupled with the hawkish Fed meeting minutes significantly strengthening expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals are weakening under the dual pressure of these negative factors, and the downward trend remains unchanged. (The above content is compiled from publicly available information from Everbright Futures, Jinyuan Futures, etc., and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Germanys seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be released in ten minutes.Semiconductor-themed ETFs are performing strongly, with the E Fund Semiconductor ETF, Guotai Semiconductor ETF, and Fuguo Semiconductor ETF all rising by more than 6%.On July 9th, Morgan Stanley lowered its target price for Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) by 29% to HK$32 from HK$45. This reflects the brokerages downward revision of its intrinsic value estimate for the electric vehicle business due to a decrease in its electric vehicle delivery forecast, and a downward revision of its intrinsic value estimate for internet services due to concerns about slower monthly active user growth caused by declining smartphone sales. Morgan Stanley estimates that Xiaomis electric vehicle deliveries will be approximately 100,000 units in the second quarter of 2026 and approximately 180,000 units in the first half of the year, reaching only 33% of its full-year target. Even including new product launches in the second half of the year, Morgan Stanley believes that Xiaomi is unlikely to achieve its full-year delivery target of 550,000 units, and has therefore lowered its forecast for Xiaomis electric vehicle deliveries this year from 580,000 units to 500,000 units, and its 2027 forecast from 750,000 units to 700,000 units. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley stated that the market has completely ignored the intrinsic value of Xiaomis AI-related investments, conservatively estimating its value at RMB 32 billion. Once the company returns to profit growth, it believes its AI valuation will significantly increase from current levels.July 9th - The Commercial Times published a blog post today (July 9th) reporting that Nvidias next-generation Rosa CPU is expected to use TSMCs A16 process and feature rear-side power supply technology. Compared to the N2P process, TSMCs A16 process can increase chip density by up to 1.1 times. The core change is the introduction of Super Power Rail rear-side power supply technology, which moves the power supply network to the back of the wafer, thereby improving power efficiency, reducing IR drop, and freeing up front-side wiring space for signal interconnects.
