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On March 13th, Matthias Scheiber, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments, stated that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged next week. In a report, Scheiber said, "We believe there is a high probability that the Fed will not cut rates at all, but if energy prices continue to rise, we expect a negative ripple effect on consumer and business confidence." Scheiber noted that before the Middle East conflict, the US economy was projected to achieve approximately 2.5% real GDP growth. Considering the possibility of further fiscal stimulus and government debt to support the private sector before the midterm elections, Scheiber believes the Fed is willing to view the surge in energy prices as a temporary phenomenon and focus on economic growth.On March 13th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.3210%, down 1.60 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4570%, down 0.80 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.4950%, down 0.60 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5330%, down 0.20 basis points; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5420%, down 0.40 basis points.On March 13th, the Sichuan Bureau organized a meeting to promote the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs in its jurisdiction. Recently, the Sichuan Bureau, in conjunction with the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and the Provincial Financial Office, held the "Sichuan Province Commercial Real Estate REITs Pilot Program Promotion Meeting." Representatives from five provincial departments, including the Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Department of Culture and Tourism, as well as relevant municipal and prefectural finance departments and nine enterprises, attended the meeting. The meeting summarized the previous work and further mobilized and deployed local government departments and enterprises to actively respond to the pilot policy, assess assets, and prepare for the tiered cultivation and application of commercial real estate REITs projects. Participating departments and enterprises exchanged views on the progress of commercial real estate REITs projects, existing difficulties, and proposed solutions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges conducted training on the development of the multi-tiered REITs market, key points of review, and key cases. Regarding the difficulties and pain points raised by enterprises in project promotion, the Sichuan Bureau will improve record management and work with relevant competent departments and municipal and prefectural governments to provide "one-on-one" solutions for each case.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We will maintain closer contact with U.S. authorities on foreign exchange issues.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We are prepared to take all possible measures, while also taking into account the potential impact of oil prices on daily life.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD investors approach a 50% mean reversion zone prior to NFP

Daniel Rogers

Mar 10, 2023 11:28

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After data showed that weekly US jobless claims increased more than anticipated, the price of gold rose on Friday as the dollar weakened. This caused the market to reconsider the Federal Reserve's next move.

 

At the time of writing, the US Dollar index, DXY, was down 0.13 percent, making the price of Gold less expensive for buyers using other currencies. Ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report, the gold price is currently in the $1,830s.

 

In the meantime, "the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased. "Initial claims increased to 211k in the week to 4 March, while continuing claims increased to 1,718k," ANZ Bank analysts explained.

 

"This most recent data suggests that the labor market may be beginning to cool, but this data is notoriously volatile, so the market will be on the lookout for additional evidence that labor demand is decreasing. The Challenger Job Cuts data, which shows 77,000 jobs were eliminated in February, is one indicator that US companies are beginning to reduce their workforce, analysts added.

 

"This is less than the January figure of 109,243, but it is 400% higher than the previous February, and it is the highest number of jobs lost in any February since 2009. The majority of layoffs are in the technology, retail, and financial sectors.