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On August 28th, Allianz Chief Advisor El-Erian stated, "Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is about to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote address. At this crucial moment, he faces a delicate challenge: how to respond to the highly diverse expectations of the market and various sectors. On one hand, some hope he will continue the tradition of previous Fed chairs, providing forward-looking guidance while elaborating on the current policy response mechanism—how the Fed will make policy decisions in response to economic data and changing circumstances. On the other hand, others hope he will return to the original long-term strategic positioning of this unique meeting. This means focusing more on the increasing and more complex domestic economic and policy issues in the context of profound structural changes driven by technological innovation and geoeconomics. Balancing these two expectations is no easy task. This balance is not only difficult to maintain but also almost certain to satisfy everyone. Meanwhile, policy factors outside the Fed further increase the difficulty of decision-making. However, Warshs speech will undoubtedly provide an important window for the outside world to gain a deeper understanding of the new Fed chairs policy philosophy and leadership style. Personally, I hope his speech will focus more on long-term structural issues, especially given the significant disagreements within the FOMC."On August 28th, the Securities Association of China and the Asset Management Association of China, based on their previous practical experience and research findings, jointly drafted the "Securities Company Trading Information System Access Management Standards (Trial Implementation)". The Standards clarify that securities companies must conduct trading information system access in accordance with laws and regulations, provide system access services prudently, treat system access clients fairly, and refrain from providing differentiated arrangements for technical or business resources to specific access clients. The Standards emphasize the primary responsibility of securities companies for managing external system access, requiring them to conduct comprehensive and thorough management, fully verify investor qualifications, and fully validate relevant system functions. During the access process, securities companies must earnestly fulfill their management responsibilities, strictly adhere to existing securities market trading management regulations, strictly control risks, and ensure that system access remains compliant, secure, and stable at all times.Ukrainian Minister: Gas reserves are sufficient for winter.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU) also possesses evidence that a large oil refinery in Kestovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia, has ceased production. This refinery processes 17 million tons of crude oil annually. Furthermore, other Russian refineries have also ceased production.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Following our series of long-range strikes against the Kamensky plant in Rostov Oblast, Russias production capacity for solid-fuel rocket engines has been significantly weakened. We will continue to conduct such long-range strike operations.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD investors approach a 50% mean reversion zone prior to NFP

Daniel Rogers

Mar 10, 2023 11:28

 截屏2022-06-07 下午5.14.47.png

 

After data showed that weekly US jobless claims increased more than anticipated, the price of gold rose on Friday as the dollar weakened. This caused the market to reconsider the Federal Reserve's next move.

 

At the time of writing, the US Dollar index, DXY, was down 0.13 percent, making the price of Gold less expensive for buyers using other currencies. Ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report, the gold price is currently in the $1,830s.

 

In the meantime, "the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased. "Initial claims increased to 211k in the week to 4 March, while continuing claims increased to 1,718k," ANZ Bank analysts explained.

 

"This most recent data suggests that the labor market may be beginning to cool, but this data is notoriously volatile, so the market will be on the lookout for additional evidence that labor demand is decreasing. The Challenger Job Cuts data, which shows 77,000 jobs were eliminated in February, is one indicator that US companies are beginning to reduce their workforce, analysts added.

 

"This is less than the January figure of 109,243, but it is 400% higher than the previous February, and it is the highest number of jobs lost in any February since 2009. The majority of layoffs are in the technology, retail, and financial sectors.


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