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February 3rd - Todays interest rate hike was a difficult decision for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as it had just cut rates last August. The RBA had previously bucked the trend of other economies, deliberately keeping rates low for an extended period to prevent soaring unemployment. Now, it becomes the first major central bank to return to a rate-hiking path since the pandemic began. Some economists had predicted that the RBA might wait for more data, given recent slowing monthly inflation data and the strengthening Australian dollars potential to "cool" the economy. Domains chief economist, Nicola Powell, stated that while the rate hike would reduce borrowers ability to finance their homes, it would also weaken the upward momentum in the housing market. Assuming lenders fully pass on the cost of the rate hike, a borrower with a $600,000 loan would see their monthly payment increase by approximately $90. The focus now shifts to the tone set by Governor Bullock at the post-meeting press conference. Economists are currently uncertain whether the RBA will continue with rate hikes or if this is a one-off event.February 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations, after holding rates steady for three consecutive days.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) set its interest rate at 3.85% on February 3, in line with expectations and down from 3.60% previously.On February 3rd, DBS Bank senior economist Radhika Rao stated in a report that the Indian market is poised for a rebound following the announcement of the US-India trade agreement. She noted that high tariffs were a major factor dragging down market sentiment over the past quarter, while the agreement is "undoubtedly a significant boon to the real economy and exports," and will also boost financial market sentiment. Rao added that textiles, gems and jewelry, engineered products, leather, and chemical products are expected to be the main beneficiaries. She wrote that considering the punitive tariffs previously imposed for purchasing Russian oil, the reduction from 50% to 18% effectively brings Indias tariff levels close to those of most Southeast Asian countries.According to sources, Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives are planning to vote next week on a key bipartisan housing bill.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.