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Gaza Situation: 1. Eight countries, including Jordan, jointly condemned Israels new land regulations in the West Bank. 2. The Israeli military claimed to have struck Palestinian militants attempting to cross into Syria. Iran Situation: 1. Irans Ministry of Oil website, Shana: The Iranian Oil Minister met with the Russian Energy Minister in Tehran. 2. The US deployed F-22 and F-16 fighter jets to the Middle East. It is believed that more than 10 F-22s and over 30 F-16s have left their bases. 3. During US-Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz was closed for several hours, and Iran conducted live-fire military exercises and launched missiles. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran and the US reached an agreement on guiding principles for negotiations. Negotiations with the US have made "good progress." The date for the next round of US talks has not yet been set. 5. Irans Supreme Leader Khamenei: Nuclear energy is our inalienable right. The type and range of Iranian missiles are irrelevant to the US. The US cannot destroy Iran. 6. Iranian officials reportedly proposed suspending uranium enrichment activities, transferring some uranium stockpiles to offshore areas, and reaching a commercial agreement with the United States to advance nuclear negotiations and avoid a US strike. 7. US officials: Iran is expected to submit a detailed proposal on the content of nuclear negotiations within the next two weeks. 8. Iranian President: Iran is willing to accept any form of inspection regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear industry. Iran will not abandon its peaceful nuclear industry used in medical, agricultural, and industrial fields. 9. US Vice President Vance: In some respects, negotiations with Iran are progressing well, but the Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge certain red lines set by Trump. Trump still hopes to find a solution. Other: 1. A joint statement shows that eight countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, condemned Israels decision to demarcate "state territory" in the occupied West Bank. 2. Turkish President Erdogan: I want to reiterate that Israels recognition of Somaliland is not in the best interest of Somaliland or the Horn of Africa. 3. Syrian Foreign Minister: Israel is taking advantage of Syrias current transitional phase to occupy new territory after December 8, 2024. Our primary and ultimate condition is that Israel withdraws from the territory it occupies after that date. Fitch: We expect the Trump administration to use other powers to impose tariffs if necessary.Fitch: Congress is expected to show little interest in fiscal consolidation during the fiscal year 2027 appropriations process ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.Fitch: The U.S. deficit is expected to remain at a high level, and the baseline forecast is at risk.Federal Reserves Daly: Models show productivity gains will drive up the neutral interest rate; the labor market is showing less liquidity and dynamism; it is unlikely to affect the neutral interest rate in the near term; growth is solid, but businesses mentioned demand uncertainty.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.


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