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On February 17th, a delegation from Iran, led by Foreign Minister Araqchi, arrived in Geneva, Switzerland on February 16th and will hold a new round of indirect negotiations with a US delegation today (February 17th). The US government had previously set a one-month deadline for the negotiations and increased its military deployment in the Middle East. Araqchi stated on February 16th that Iran would not succumb to threats. US Secretary of State Rubio stated on the same day that he believed reaching a substantial agreement with Iran would be "extremely difficult."February 17th, Futures News – According to foreign media reports, gold prices currently appear to be consolidating around $5,000, but this doesnt mean the precious metal will remain there indefinitely – an international bank has raised its second-quarter gold price target. ANZ commodities analysts stated in their latest gold report that they expect gold prices to reach $5,800 per ounce in the second quarter, a significant upward revision from their previous target of $5,400. The analysts stated, "Although recent market volatility has raised questions about whether gold prices have peaked, we believe this rally is not yet mature and will not reverse in the short term." Gold prices have fallen sharply from their historical high of nearly $5,600 last month, causing some investors to worry about a potential price crash, similar to the price movements after the highs of 1980 or 2011. However, ANZ points out that the current market environment is very different, with gold prices receiving strong support as the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year. Easing inflationary pressures are also driving the market to price in a third rate cut before December. Analysts say they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice, in March and June respectively. This will continue to lower real interest rates, supporting inflows into gold. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are expected to persist, with Trump continuing to use tariffs as a threat. The market is gradually focusing on the potential impact of tariffs, an impact that has not yet been fully reflected in economic and inflation data.February 17th - US President Trump pressured Ukraine on the 16th to reach an agreement with Russia "quickly." Answering reporters questions aboard Air Force One that day, Trump said the new round of US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva on the 17th was important and would be "very easy." Trump specifically named Ukraine: "Ukraine had better get back to the negotiating table quickly... Were in position, and we hope they come."The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has announced that ExxonMobil (XOM.N) will be fined A$16 million for making misleading statements about fuel sales at nine petrol stations.Faraday Future Co-CEO Jia Yueting: Faraday Future will launch the EAI Robotics Improvement Plan and recommends major adjustments to AIxC.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.


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