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On September 8th, Daiwa issued a research report stating that Bilibili (09626.HK) issued US$700 million in zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2031, while Tencent (00700.HK) completed the sale of its entire approximately 9.6% stake. The bank views this innovative win-win-win structure positively, believing it eliminates Tencents long-standing pressure to cash out, brings Bilibili approximately US$400 million in new funds, and limits equity dilution through the immediate US$300 million share buyback and cancellation. The report states that Bilibili has used US$300 million of the proceeds to buy back shares. Based on the initial conversion price of the convertible bonds (approximately 35.2 million shares), the total dilution is approximately 8.4%. However, after deducting the immediate cancellation of the repurchased shares, the net dilution is limited to approximately 3.5%. The bank reiterated its buy rating on Bilibili. The bank believes the benefits outweigh the drawbacks because it immediately eliminates Tencents selling pressure and raises long-term zero-coupon funds at a cost far lower than ordinary offshore bonds.The Icelandic government summoned the U.S. ambassador to Iceland after Trump posted a map on social media that included Iceland within the U.S. territory.On September 8th, Citigroup issued a report stating that Nikes adjustment of its China distribution strategy starting in January 2027 is expected to negatively impact Topsports (06110.HK) business prospects for fiscal year 2028 (ending February 2028). Currently, the bank is not highly confident that Nike will continue to subsidize Topsports online distribution rights after the current fiscal year (ending February 2027). The bank lowered its net profit forecasts for Topsports for fiscal years 2027 to 2029 by 2%, 19%, and 18% respectively, while its sales forecasts were lowered by 1%, 5%, and 5% respectively. Based on an unchanged target P/E ratio of 11x for each historical year ending in 2027, the target price was lowered from HK$1.91 to HK$1.7. The bank maintains its "Buy" rating, considering the stocks double-digit dividend yield. The relative preference order for the Chinese sportswear sector remains unchanged: Anta (02020.HK) > Li Ning (02331.HK) > Topsports, all with "Buy" ratings.On September 8th, Futures News reported that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining market stability, deciding to keep their daily crude oil production quotas for October at the same level determined in September 2026. OPEC+ will continue to hold monthly meetings to monitor market dynamics, with the next meeting scheduled for October 4th, 2026. Previously, the production quotas of these seven OPEC+ countries had increased for six consecutive months, and member countries are still working to determine new production quotas. During these six months, the organization gradually lifted production cuts, and the market still has sufficient capacity to absorb the increased oil supply. However, despite the significant increase in production quotas, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked due to the war between the US and Iran, and Russian crude oil exports are also restricted due to Western sanctions. In other words, since these seven countries crude oil is mainly for export, the increased quotas are meaningless given the export restrictions.On September 8th, Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that China Huadian Corporation (01071.HK) still faces short-term profit pressure from rising coal prices. Bank of America Securities reiterated its "underperform" rating but raised its target price for H-shares from HK$3.5 to HK$3.7, and its target price for A-shares from RMB 4.1 to RMB 4.3, to reflect better-than-expected electricity prices, lower financing costs, and increased carbon trading revenue. The report indicated that the improvement in electricity prices in the second quarter was mainly driven by rising spot and monthly market electricity prices following coal prices, and the allocation of capacity tariff revenue to lower power generation volumes. Shandong remains the most mature electricity market in mainland China, with electricity prices closely linked to spot prices, which helps with fuel cost transmission. Management expects the benchmark coal price in Qinhuangdao to fluctuate around RMB 850 per ton in the second half of the year; however, the low base of coal prices in the third quarter of last year will result in a higher base for comparison in fuel costs in the coming quarter. Gas-fired power generation fell by more than 10% year-on-year in the first half of the year, but profitability improved as the company deliberately reduced low-profit periods and focused on generating power during peak demand periods, with capacity tariff mechanisms in Tianjin and Guangdong also providing support.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.