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1. Monday: ① Data: 17:00 Germany February IFO Business Climate Index; 23:00 US December Factory Orders MoM; 23:30 US February Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. ② Events: Iran finalizes draft agreement with the US; 21:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks. ③ Holiday: Japanese stock market and mainland China market closed; northbound and southbound trading closed. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: 09:00 China Loan Prime Rate; 19:00 UK February CBI Retail Sales Balance; 22:00 US December FHFA House Price Index MoM; 22:00 US December S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (Unadjusted); 23:00 US December Wholesale Sales MoM; 23:00 US February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; 23:00 US February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. ② Events: Domestic refined oil price adjustment; US President Trump delivers State of the Union address; 01:30 ECB President Lagarde speaks; 13:00 New 15% global tariffs from the US take effect; 22:10 Fed Governor Waller speaks; 22:35 Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: 05:30 US API crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20; 08:30 Australia January unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate; 15:00 Germany March GfK consumer confidence index, Germany Q4 unadjusted GDP year-on-year final reading; 17:00 Switzerland February ZEW investor confidence index; 18:00 Eurozone January CPI data; 23:30 US EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 20. ② Events: 00:00 Apple Inc. 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting; 04:15 Federal Reserves Barkin and Collins jointly attend a panel discussion; 09:20 300 billion yuan of MLF and 400 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos mature; 16:40 RBA Governor Bullock participates in a fireside chat. 4. Thursday: ① Data: 18:00 Eurozone February Industrial Sentiment Index and Economic Sentiment Index; 21:30 Canadas Q4 Current Account; 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 21; 23:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage for the week ending February 20. ② Events: 05:00 Nvidia releases earnings report after US market close; 06:00 Nvidia earnings call. Baidu releases earnings report before US market open (pending); 20:30 Baidu earnings call. 5. Friday: ① Data: 08:01 UK February GfK Consumer Confidence Index; 15:45 France February CPI (preliminary), Q4 GDP (final); 16:00 Switzerland February KOF Leading Economic Indicator; 16:55 Germany February Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate; 21:00 Germany February CPI (preliminary); 21:30 Canada December GDP (monthly); 21:30 US January PPI (yearly); 22:45 US February Chicago PMI; 23:00 US December Construction Spending (monthly). ② Event: 15:00 MSCI China Index February adjustment takes effect. ③ Holiday: Taiwan stock market closed. 6. Saturday: ① Data: 02:00 US Total Oil Rig Count for the Week Ending February 27. ② Event: Berkshire Hathaway Earnings Report. 7. Sunday: ① Event: OPEC+ Meeting.February 23 – The 9th Congress of the Workers Party of Korea continued on February 22. The meeting discussed and revised the Workers Party Constitution and elected members of the Central Leadership. The Congress expressed its full support for and endorsement of the proposal to re-elect Kim Jong Un to the highest position in the Workers Party of Korea, and elected him as General Secretary of the Workers Party of Korea. The meeting also elected members and alternate members of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea. Kim Jong Un, Pak Thae Song, Jo Yong Won, Ri Il Hwan, and 139 others were elected as members of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea.February 23 - Analysts say that as skepticism surrounding artificial intelligence grows, Wall Street is increasingly worried that the chip giants earnings this week will drag down its stock price. Nvidias stock has been trading sideways for months, rising only 1.7% since the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year, slightly below the S&P 500s 3.3% gain over the same period. Nvidias recent lackluster performance is largely due to increased investor concerns about spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI development, leading to capital outflows from large-cap tech stocks. However, the stock market also faces numerous external risks, including geopolitical instability and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. All of this puts Nvidia in a delicate position when it releases its fourth-quarter and fiscal year results on Wednesday. Investors expect its results to far exceed Wall Street expectations and raise forecasts for the coming quarters. But the company may have little to do or say to drive a meaningful rise in its stock price. Nvidias stock price has fallen after its last two earnings releases.February 23 - On February 22, local time, Greenlands Prime Minister Jens-Frederic Nielsen stated on social media that Greenland has no intention of accepting a hospital ship that US President Trump planned to send to the island. Nielsen posted on Facebook that day, "The answer here is: No, thank you." He stated that Greenlanders enjoy free healthcare, a system that is a "basic component" of local society, "unlike the United States, where you have to pay for medical care."February 23 – The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that its foreign minister and Iraqi foreign minister held a telephone conversation on Sunday evening. During the call, they reviewed and discussed the latest regional and international situation. The Iranian foreign minister briefed Iraq on the progress of the Iran-US nuclear negotiations. The Iraqi foreign minister emphasized Iraqs support for the ongoing diplomatic process and expressed hope that the ongoing talks would yield favorable results for Iran and bring peace and stability to the region.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.