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On January 30th, Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, stated that if Kevin Warsh is indeed nominated as the Federal Reserve Chair, we may ultimately end up with a Fed that is somewhat hawkish. Warsh has historically been a hawk, although he has recently been talking about interest rate cuts. If he enters the Fed advocating for significant rate cuts, he may not have much credibility in convincing others that further rate cuts are needed. We might even end up with a severely divided committee that doesnt cut rates at all. In the short term, a potentially hawkish Fed could increase market volatility.On January 30th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,861,277 lots, an increase of 740,717 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,072,923 lots, an increase of 13,889 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 380,646 lots, an increase of 156,990 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 259,939 lots, a decrease of 6,052 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 610,932 lots, a decrease of 80,707 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,639,013 lots, an increase of 17,069 lots from the previous trading day.Frances GDP growth rate is projected to be 0.9% in 2025.Frances preliminary fourth-quarter GDP annualized rate was 1.1%, below the expected 1.20% and the previous value of 0.90%.French household consumption expenditure fell 1% year-on-year in December, compared with an expected decline of 0.60% and a previous reading of 0.00%.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD views $1,800 as upbeat US labor market fuels hawkish Fed wagers

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:55

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Gold price (XAU / USD) appears vulnerable above $1,810.00 as the upside appears constrained by rising Federal Reserve rate expectations (Fed). The precious metal is anticipated to resume its decline as strong United States Employment data reported by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has confirmed that January's strong consumer spending and higher payrolls were not a one-time blow to the Consumer Price Index's decline (CPI).

 

S&P500 futures have given up the slight gains they made on Wednesday during the Asian session. As China's CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures indicate deflation, the risk-aversion theme has intensified. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained a sideways trend above 105.20 as investors await the publication of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for fresh direction signals. The alpha provided by 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 3.98 percent.

 

The official US Employment data is expected to indicate a decline in the payrolls to 203K from the former release of 514k. A figure of 203K is not as terrible as January's 514K figure, but it appears insignificant in comparison. Investors should be aware that a figure of 514K in the last seven months was exceptional.

 

Aside from that, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate will remain at a multi-decade low of 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings are expected to ascend to 4.8% on an annual basis. Household income may increase consumer expenditure. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has already confirmed that the Fed will increase interest rates in order to reduce inflation.


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