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On January 14th, the Bank of Japan announced it will hold a market operations meeting on February 26th. The meeting will discuss recent market dynamics, central bank operations, liquidity in the Japanese government bond market, and money market conditions. Given the current weakening yen, this meeting announcement has attracted market attention. Analysts at the US financial website InvestingLive pointed out that this meeting is a technical one, not a formal meeting to determine the direction of monetary policy. The market operations meeting will review the Bank of Japans bond-buying framework, including the size, frequency, and maturity structure of Japanese government bond purchases, as well as money market operations such as repurchase agreements and collateral terms. Although such meetings do not directly adjust interest rates or policy guidance, adjustments to the details of actual operations can convey important market signals. For example, adjusting the purchase volume of bonds with specific maturities could affect the yield curve and change market expectations regarding the central banks tolerance for rising long-term interest rates. Historical experience shows that fine-tuning at the operational level often precedes adjustments to overall policy. Given the current pressure of rapid yen depreciation, analysts suggest that if the Japanese authorities decide to intervene in the market, they may not wait for this meeting six weeks later. The technical discussions at this meeting will provide a window into the central bank’s strategies for dealing with market volatility, but should not be over-interpreted as a precursor to a policy shift.The Hang Seng Tech Index continued its upward trend, rising over 1%, with Alibaba Health (00241.HK) leading the gains among constituent stocks, rising over 11%. The Hang Seng Index is currently up 0.52%.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. The Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) previously stated that cross-strait relations in 2026 are highly uncertain, but it will still make every effort to promote dialogue between the two sides, and even between the two organizations (the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the SEF), but only on the premise of no pre-existing political conditions and on the basis of consensus among the people of Taiwan. What is the spokespersons comment? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that if cross-strait relations are uncertain, the fundamental reason is that the DPP authorities stubbornly adhere to their "Taiwan independence" separatist stance and constantly collude with external forces to conduct provocative actions for "independence." The solution is certain: peace, development, exchange, and cooperation are the mainstream public opinion on the island and the common aspiration of compatriots on both sides of the strait. As long as the "1992 Consensus," which embodies the one-China principle, is acknowledged, the two organizations can restart dialogue and communication mechanisms, and cross-strait relations can return to the correct track of peaceful development.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. According to foreign media reports, the United States and Taiwan are close to reaching a trade agreement, with TSMC to invest in and build at least five more semiconductor plants in the US. People and media on the island have questioned the DPP authorities use of investment in exchange for tariffs, suggesting it will lead to the relocation of elite semiconductor production capacity to the US, turning TSMC into "US TSMC." What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the so-called agreement is an economic plunder of Taiwan by the US using high tariffs as a means, a scheme to bleed Taiwans industries dry. This not only exposes the USs self-serving "America First" nature but also reveals its sinister intention to use Taiwan as a pawn. Faced with blatant bullying and plunder by external forces, the DPP authorities not only fail to resist but also actively cater to them, using the islands core technological advantages as a pledge of allegiance to external forces. They "kneel before the negotiations even begin" in tariff negotiations, and "cheek on one cheek and offer another" in the face of economic blackmail. The more they negotiate, the more they sell out, ultimately destroying Taiwans economic development prospects and harming the long-term interests of the Taiwanese people.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the "KMT-CPC Forum" would be held in Beijing, and that high-ranking KMT officials would travel to the mainland. Could this be confirmed? The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) questioned whether the KMT had secured its place at the "KMT-CPC Forum" by repeatedly blocking arms purchases and called on the KMT not to cooperate with mainland "united front" propaganda. What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that our position is clear: we are willing to work with all political parties, groups, and people from all walks of life in Taiwan, including the KMT, to strengthen exchanges and maintain positive interactions on the common political basis of adhering to the "1992 Consensus" and opposing "Taiwan independence," to jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and benefit compatriots on both sides of the strait. If there is any information in this regard, we will release it in a timely manner.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU / USD bears move in for the kill ahead of a key event, Fed's Powell

Alina Haynes

Mar 07, 2023 11:57

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Even though the US Dollar fell and yields increased advance of Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress, gold prices were slightly weaker during the US session. After breaking a streak of four consecutive weekly declines, the yellow metal was falling below $1,850. Initially, China's modest growth objective led to a strengthening of the US dollar, but Powell is expected to reiterate the view that rates will rise faster than predicted.

 

Recent statements by Fed officials have reaffirmed the need to continue raising interest rates until they reach at least 5%, and a plethora of data points in that general direction. "Several regional Fed presidents have signaled an openness to higher interest rates and larger increases if the data remain robust. It would mark a shift in the Fed’s guidance if Powell articulates similar sentiments at tomorrow’s testimony and a step back from the cautious policy around rates,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said.

 

Recent strength in Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales data suggests that policy is not restrictive enough, and the Fed may have been caught off guard by weak fourth-quarter data. The analysts added that the Fed might benefit from highlighting the significance of short-term inflation expectations and current inflation in its estimates of restrictiveness.

 

In the meantime, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be the focus, as many Fed members are anticipating a slowdown in job growth following January's surge of over 500,000 new positions. However, if the employment market doesn't cool sufficiently, the markets will likely see that the March FOMC meeting will likely see a 50bp hike, which is anticipated to impact heavily on the Gold price. ''A return to CTA selling could be in the cards as prices still tantalize with a break below the 200dma and key $1,800/oz mark,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.