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On November 24th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a speech on the 23rd, local time, briefing the Ukrainian delegation on the series of high-level talks held that day in Geneva, Switzerland. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is very carefully formulating the steps needed to end the conflict. He revealed that the negotiations in Switzerland on the 23rd would continue, with the team expected to work until late at night and submit further progress reports. Regarding communication with US representatives, both sides maintained substantive dialogue, and Ukraine has received positive signals that US President Trumps team is carefully listening to Ukraines position and concerns. Zelenskyy emphasized that ensuring the steps to end the conflict are effective and feasible is crucial. The current acceleration of the diplomatic process is a positive sign, and Ukraine expects the final outcome to be reflected in a series of correct, powerful, and sustainable action plans.On November 24th, representatives from Ukraine, the EU, and the US met in Geneva, Switzerland, on Sunday to discuss the US-proposed 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The EU representative reportedly presented a European version of the counter-proposal. According to the EUs counter-proposal, the number of Ukrainian troops would be capped at 800,000, higher than the US-proposed 600,000. Ukraine also pledged not to use military means to reclaim occupied sovereign territories, and that territorial exchange negotiations would begin from the current military contact line. The EU further proposed that Ukraine would receive a US security guarantee similar to Article 5 of NATO, and that NATO would agree not to permanently station NATO-commanded troops in Ukraine during peacetime, with NATO aircraft only stationed in Poland. Whether Ukraine would join NATO would depend on the consensus of NATO member states, but currently, there is no such consensus. Furthermore, Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of a peace agreement.On November 24th, German Chancellor Merz stated during the G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on the 23rd that he had proposed a simplified version of the "28-point" plan put forward by the United States to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Merz stated that this plan is "below the level of a complete solution" and aims to find workable points of consensus in complex negotiations. He indicated that the "28-point" plan is too complex to reach an agreement in such a short time, and he hopes that the "simplified plan" will at least attempt to find a point of entry for reaching a consensus. Merz pointed out that given the current differences, reaching an agreement by the 27th, as demanded by US President Trump, is quite difficult.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Its a good thing to have dialogue with US representatives. There are signs that US President Trumps team "heard us."US Secretary of State Rubio: The deadline is that we hope to complete this matter (the 28-point plan between Russia and Ukraine) as soon as possible, preferably by Thursday. A phone call between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is possible; well wait and see.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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