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On January 16th, Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the share price of Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. Analysts at the bank stated that in the most optimistic scenario, as chipmakers increase spending to meet soaring demand from artificial intelligence, the stock could rise by 70%, potentially reaching €2,000. Morgan Stanleys bullish outlook on ASML is further fueled by TSMCs earnings report demonstrating that the AI spending boom has not slowed. ASMLs share price has already risen 25% year-to-date by 2026, and its market capitalization surpassed $500 billion this week, making it the third European company to reach this milestone.On January 16th, Barclays Bank predicted that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold its interest rates steady next week and adhere to its existing forward guidance without making significant adjustments. Barclays noted that given the extremely low real interest rates, the BOJ should "continue to reiterate its willingness to raise interest rates further, based on improvements in economic activity and prices." Furthermore, they pointed out that the sell-off of the yen will also be a factor in the central banks decision.On January 16, the Sixth China-ASEAN Digital Ministerial Meeting adopted the "China-ASEAN Digital Cooperation Plan 2026," which specifies the establishment of the China-ASEAN Digital Academy and the China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Center within the year, and the commencement of exchanges and cooperation in areas such as digital and information and communication infrastructure, open source, and digital security. The meeting also adopted the "China-ASEAN Action Plan for Building a Sustainable and Inclusive Digital Ecosystem (2026-2030)," outlining strengthened cooperation between the two sides over the next five years in policy exchanges and strategic alignment, digital infrastructure construction, and the innovative application of emerging digital technologies.According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents, Harbin Yuyantang Traditional Chinese Medicine Clinic Group Co., Ltd. has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.January 16th - Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister stated that despite ongoing challenges to the UK economy, Thursdays unexpectedly positive November economic growth data provided a positive signal for the pound. The data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November. While concerns about fiscal austerity in the November budget remain, the economy still recorded robust growth. Therefore, fears of a recession and further interest rate cuts may be premature. Labor market and inflation data will be released next week, with the latter being particularly crucial for the pounds performance in the coming weeks.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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