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On January 9th, a Goldman Sachs survey found that geopolitical factors have driven institutional investors pessimistic view of oil to its highest level in nearly a decade, with the global market facing a supply glut. According to the Goldman Sachs survey, over 59% of more than 1,100 clients across various asset classes are bearish or slightly bearish on the crude oil market. This percentage is slightly higher than the lowest monthly level since records began in January 2016. Last year, crude oil prices suffered their worst performance since 2020 due to increased production from OPEC+, record increases in US production, and increased supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana. This year, the supply glut is expected to widen further. An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would likely eliminate supply disruptions and sanctions on Russian crude. Meanwhile, the US plans to control future oil sales from Venezuela, pushing the South American nations crude onto the market.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 5.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Tajikistan (37.55°N, 74.81°E) at 00:59 on January 9, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.Goldman Sachs: Investor pessimism about oil is near a 10-year high.The schedule shows that Azerbaijani BTC crude oil exports from the port of Ceyhan in February totaled 519,000 barrels per day, down from 523,000 barrels per day in January.The Atlanta Feds GDPNow model projects U.S. GDP growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU / USD will continue to fluctuate above $1,900 despite a decline in US Inflation

Daniel Rogers

Mar 15, 2023 11:43

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Gold price (XAU / USD) is not in danger despite U.S. inflation figures meeting expectations. Since Monday, the precious metal has been fluctuating continuously between $1,895 and $1,913. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) failed to produce a significant reaction in the Gold price; however, the upside bias appears to be solidified as wagers on lesser rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have increased.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is protecting the critical support at 103.50, but it appears vulnerable to further losses as investors' risk appetite has dramatically increased. As market participants purchased S&P500 futures in response to higher odds of a smaller rate hike from Fed chair Jerome Powell, a likely recession in the US economy was postponed, signaling an uptick in optimism.

 

Contrary to the risk-on sentiment, demand for US Treasury bonds remained weak, causing 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.68 percent.

 

The headline As anticipated, the US CPI increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, and the annual figure decreased from 6.4% to 6.0%. In addition, the core CPI, which excludes crude and food prices, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% previously. The Fed appears to be pleased with the persistence of a declining trend in US inflation.

 

In the future, investors will closely monitor the US Retail Sales (Feb) data. Monthly Retail Sales data is anticipated to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous release of a 3.0% increase. This indicates that the consumer spending rebound is over and the Fed is on course to achieve its inflation target of 2%.

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