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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, June 12, 2026Trump halts strikes against Iran, says peace agreement to be signed "in the coming days," causing international oil prices to plummet. A quick chart shows the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.According to Futures News on June 12, as of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.56% and spot palladium rose 1.50%.June 12 (Futures News) – Since the second quarter, gold prices have continued to decline, and market pessimism has spread. Signals from the options market indicate that some traders are betting that this decline will continue for the next two years. 1. According to ThinkOrSwim and SpotGamma data, approximately $200 million in premiums were traded in the GLD options market on Wednesday, of which $130 million was related to put options. Of the top 10 contracts by trading volume, 8 were put options, and more than half of the put option premiums were traded at or above the ask price, indicating that these contracts were primarily bought. The second most traded option contract was a put contract expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240, priced at $11.50 per contract – this is a deep bearish bet, meaning traders expect the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) to fall by approximately 40% over the next two years. 2. Market participants told Futures Daily that the recent decline in gold prices is not due to the collapse of the long-term bull market foundation, but rather to the concentrated release of short-term macroeconomic negative factors, among which the change in expectations for the Federal Reserves monetary policy is the core negative factor. 3. Lin Zhenlong, senior precious metals analyst at Shanjin Futures, added that the core reason for the more than 20% drop in gold prices since the beginning of the year is a phased shift in market pricing power, rather than a failure of long-term logic. Long-term supporting factors such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remain unchanged, but the short-term trading focus has completely shifted to interest rates. The increase in US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar have raised the cost of holding gold, triggering a sell-off by bulls. Currently, the impact of real interest rates on gold prices far exceeds traditional supporting factors such as safe-haven assets. In the medium to long term, the supporting logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid. However, before a substantial shift in Federal Reserve policy and confirmation that US Treasury yields have peaked, gold is unlikely to start a trend of upward movement and will most likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.8%, German DAX futures rose 1.7%, and UK FTSE futures rose 0.9%.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.


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