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On June 15th, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that high energy prices are beginning to spread to other sectors of the economy. She said, "Weve started to see the indirect effects of inflation almost everywhere in recent weeks." The ECB raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2023, as the Middle East war exacerbated price pressures. Officials did not rule out a second rate hike immediately at the July meeting, with policymakers, including Bundesbank President Jean-Claude Nagel, saying that even if the war in Iran ends soon, prices could remain high. However, rising borrowing costs have raised concerns among some ECB watchers about the economic impact. "I hear criticism—often from France, and I understand that criticism—saying, We are taking measures that will stifle economic growth," Lagarde said. "But I must curb inflation if it is awakened, because once inflation gets out of control, it will be much more difficult and costly to bring it back under control. Prolonged inflation is unacceptable for consumers and businesses, and I would have failed in my mission."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Common euro debt is a necessary condition for the success of a capital markets union.On June 15th, Futures reported that the domestic refined oil market showed a divergent trend in early June: retail prices saw a significant decline, but wholesale prices had limited room for further drop and gradually stabilized and began to rise, leading to a narrowing of the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline and diesel from its year-to-date high. As of the close of trading on June 12th, the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline from major domestic oil companies and Shandong local refineries narrowed by 19.09% and 16.85% respectively compared to the beginning of the month; the wholesale-retail price spread for diesel narrowed by 19.93% and 18.77% respectively. However, recent negative news has intensified, and demand has been insufficient, leaving room for further declines in wholesale gasoline and diesel prices. Before the retail price adjustment window opens, the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline and diesel is expected to widen.Switzerlands producer/import price index fell 0.4% month-on-month in May, compared with 0.80% in the previous month.Switzerlands producer/import price index fell 1.8% year-on-year in May, compared with a previous reading of -2.00%.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.


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