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Indonesian President: We are a major exporter of goods, but our export revenue accounts for a very low percentage of our GDP.On May 20th, inflation and fiscal concerns pushed the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds to a record high, prompting Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) to believe an investment opportunity exists. PIMCOs Chief Investment Officer, Seidner, stated that Japans yield curve is "too steep" compared to other developed markets, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. PIMCO is long on 30-year Japanese government bonds and short on 10-year bonds, betting on a narrowing spread between the two. "The current risk premium is attractive both absolutely and relatively," Seidner said. Japans yield curve is the steepest among developed markets, reflecting market concerns about slow central bank interest rate hikes and long-term fiscal spending. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis call for a supplementary budget has exacerbated these concerns. Data shows that the spread between 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds is approximately 130 basis points, lower than the 171 basis points in September, but still significantly higher than the 52 basis points in the US and 67 basis points in the UK. Seidner stated that the spread has begun to narrow, "it has normalized to some extent, but it is still one of the steepest curves globally, so we continue to hold."On May 20, President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two heads of state unanimously agreed to extend the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia. Xi Jinping pointed out that 25 years ago, China and Russia signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, establishing in legal form the institutional foundation for long-term good-neighborliness, friendship, and comprehensive strategic cooperation, thus enabling China-Russia relations to achieve leapfrog development. Currently, the international landscape has undergone significant changes, and the world faces the danger of regressing to the law of the jungle. Against this backdrop, the advanced nature, scientific basis, and practical value of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and Russia are becoming increasingly prominent. China supports the extension of the Treaty and will work with Russia to uphold its spirit and firmly advance the "back-to-back" strategic cooperation between China and Russia.Sources indicate that Japan may launch new Japanese government bonds to attract retail investors.On May 20th, market rumors circulated that ByteDance was preparing to launch Seedance 2.1, an upgraded version of its AI video generation model Seedance 2.0, with the new model expected to improve generation quality by approximately 20%. However, on May 20th, a source close to ByteDance stated that the rumors surrounding the imminent release of Seedance 2.1 were untrue. In February of this year, ByteDance officially launched its multimodal AI video generation model, Seedance 2.0, which supports mixed input of text, images, audio, and video, attracting significant attention from the industry upon its release.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.