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Futures News, May 15th: 1. Widespread Precipitation Expected in Central and Eastern China: From May 15th to 19th, a large-scale rainfall process will occur in central and eastern my country from west to east. Heavy rain or torrential rain is expected in parts of eastern Southwest China, the Jianghuai region, central and western Jiangnan, South China, eastern Northwest China, western and northern North China, the Huanghuai region, and Inner Mongolia, with localized areas experiencing extremely heavy rain, accompanied by thunderstorms, strong winds, and short-duration heavy precipitation. 2. Dense Fog Expected in the Yellow Sea and Northern East China Sea: From 08:00 on May 15th to 08:00 on May 16th, dense fog with visibility less than 1 kilometer is expected in the Bohai Strait, most of the Yellow Sea, northwestern East China Sea, eastern coastal waters of the Liaodong Peninsula, eastern coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula, and coastal waters of Jiangsu. Additionally, from early morning to late morning on May 15th, dense fog is expected in parts of central Hunan, central Jiangxi, southern Sichuan Basin, and western Guizhou, with localized areas experiencing dense fog with visibility less than 500 meters. The National Meteorological Center continued to issue a yellow fog warning at 06:00 on May 15. 3. High temperatures will persist in central and northern Africa, West Asia, and South Asia. Over the next three days, parts of central and northern Africa, southeastern Arabian Peninsula, southeastern Iran, southwestern Afghanistan, southern Pakistan, and most of India will experience temperatures above 40℃, with some areas exceeding 45℃. 3. Significant rainfall is expected in central and eastern Southern Europe. Over the next three days, influenced by an upper-level trough and low-level Mediterranean moisture transport, parts of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, central Italy, Albania, western Romania, eastern Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria will experience moderate rain, with some areas experiencing heavy to torrential rain; these areas will also experience winds of force 4 to 6, with gusts exceeding force 7.On May 15th, South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yoon-cheol stated that despite continued strong export data, the protracted conflict in the Middle East is gradually impacting the South Korean economy through rising consumer prices, and the government will take proactive measures to stabilize supply chains. According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Koo chaired a meeting of economic ministers in Seoul that day to discuss countermeasures against the economic impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis. The Ministry of Finance quoted Koo as saying, "The protracted war has begun to have a significant impact on South Koreas real economy and peoples lives." Koo also expressed gratitude to gas stations for cooperating with the governments fuel price cap mechanism, noting that current market fuel prices are still below the cap level. He added that South Korea will closely assess changes in the economic environment, including the semiconductor industry boom, and study measures to alleviate economic polarization. The Ministry of Finance stated that South Korea will announce its economic growth strategy for the second half of the year at the end of June. In addition, Koo also chaired a meeting of real estate ministers, stating that the government will use all available means to stabilize the real estate market.Data from the Bank of Japan shows that the year-on-year increase in the yen-denominated import price index in April was the fastest since December 2022.Japans corporate goods price index rose 2.3% month-on-month in April, below the expected 0.80% and the previous reading of 0.80%.Japans corporate goods price index rose 4.9% year-on-year in April, below the expected 3.00% and the previous reading of 2.60%.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.