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On February 19th, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote an article on the Fed meeting minutes, stating that sometimes what the Fed doesnt mention is more interesting. In every meeting last year (up to December), staff projected that inflation would return to 2% by 2027. In December, this projection was pushed back to 2028. However, the January meeting minutes did not specify a concrete timeframe for when inflation would reach 2%. Instead, the minutes indicated that the projected figure was "slightly higher, but balanced" compared to the December projection, and that inflation was expected to return to its "previous downward trend" as the impact of tariffs was expected to end by mid-year. However, the key phrase from the December minutes ("and to reach 2% by 2028") was absent from the January minutes.February 19th - Today (February 19th) is the third day of the Lunar New Year, the fifth day of the Spring Festival holiday. The national railway system is expected to transport 13.4 million passengers today, with 747 additional passenger trains planned. Regarding ticket sales, tickets for March 5th (the seventeenth day of the first lunar month) went on sale today.The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds rose 1 basis point to 2.98%.1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 49,662.66 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,881.31 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.78% to 22,753.63 points. Goldman Sachs and Salesforce rose nearly 2%, leading the Dow Jones. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 0.77%, Amazon rose nearly 2%, and Nvidia rose more than 1%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.04%, Canadian Solar rose nearly 4%, and 21Vianet fell more than 9%. 2. All three major European stock indexes closed higher. The German DAX rose 1.12% to 25,278.21 points, the French CAC40 rose 0.81% to 8,429.03 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.23% to 10,686.18 points. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 4.3% at $64.94 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 4.15% to $70.22 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.84% to $4996.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 4.88% to $77.13 per ounce.In January, the RMB accounted for 3.13% of global payments via SWIFT, up from 2.73% in the previous month.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.


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