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On April 12, local time, US President Trump posted on social media that the US-Iran talks had reached an agreement on "most issues," but failed to reach an agreement on the key issue of "nuclear weapons." Trump said the US had been briefed on the talks, which lasted approximately 20 hours, but Iran "was unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions." Trump stated that the US would continue to push for negotiations, but was "fully prepared." He reiterated that Iran "will never possess nuclear weapons."The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office: The crew requested the sailboat to stop; when the captain refused, they attempted to tow the small boat alongside the sailboat to board it.April 12 - Crown Prince Khalid of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, arrived in Beijing on the evening of April 12 to begin a visit to China.On April 12th, Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu stated that the failure of the US-Iran agreement has firmly established uncertainty. The recent strengthening of the dollar, accompanied by a slight decline in US Treasury yields, is a fairly reasonable pricing outcome. After the initial shock of the news subsides, the reaction of US Treasuries could become more complex. Short-term yields may continue to decline slightly due to safe-haven demand, but if oil prices continue to rise, they will quickly re-anchor to higher inflation expectations, thus putting new upward pressure on long-term yields. Monday is also likely to see the energy and defense sectors outperform the broader market, opening with a significant upward gap. The energy sector is the most direct beneficiary of supply-side contraction, while the defense sector reflects the rising geopolitical risk premium and its more persistent characteristics. However, the magnitude of market volatility will depend on two key factors—the sustainability of the oil price strength and whether the market confirms that this is a sustained supply shock, rather than just a short-term, sentiment-driven reaction.According to the Financial Times, UK financial regulators are conducting an urgent assessment of the risks of Anthropics latest AI model.

The EUR/USD rise is getting close to 1.0200 as investors await US inflation data

Daniel Rogers

Aug 09, 2022 14:58

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The EUR/USD moves in the 1.0200 range during Tuesday's Asian session after falling from 1.0221 as traders look for fresh data. The major currency pair gained over the first part of the week but lost some of those gains by Monday's close. Recent price fluctuations, however, seem to be constrained by a lack of noteworthy data or events and a cautious attitude ahead of Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.

 

Gains in the EUR/USD the day before are shown by higher readings of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and a drop in US Treasury yields. The primary sentiment indicator Index, however, increased in August from -26.4 to -25.2, which was projected to be the value. According to specifics, the eurozone's present state has improved from this month's lowest position since March 2021, when it was -16.5, to -16.3. The expectations index is at its lowest level since December 2008, despite a little increase to -33.8. It is still very close to that level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), in contrast, saw a daily decrease of 0.19 percent to 106.37.

 

The moderate Azione's resignation from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections looks to have put negative pressure on the Euro elsewhere due to Italian political worries.

 

The moderate Azione has backed out of its coalition with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party after only agreeing to do so last week. According to party leader Carlo Calendar, "the parts didn't fit." According to Reuters and Market News Publishing US, the alliance was formed in an effort to stop a more conservative government from taking office after the election on September 25.

 

Notably, gains in the EUR/USD the day before appeared to have been constrained by US President Joe Biden's displeasure of China's efforts to retake Taiwan and his censure of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taipei.

 

These actions caused the 10-year US Treasury rates, which had increased by 14 basis points (bps) the day before, to fall by around seven basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent. Wall Street also started Monday's trading day on a positive one before ending on a mixed note, albeit as of press time, S&P 500 Futures are showing minor gains.

 

Participants in the EUR/USD market may be interested in the second quarter's (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Forecasts suggest that US Nonfarm Productivity may rise to -4.6% from -7.3%, while Unit Labor Costs may decrease to 9.5% from 12.6%. The news regarding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for determining direction.


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