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June 30th - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK food inflation has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months, the latest sign of easing cost pressures that could prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates. Data released on Tuesday showed that UK food prices rose 2.4% in early June, down from a 2.7% increase the previous month, mainly due to lower inflation for fresh food. Overall retail price increases remained at 1.2%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, "Thanks to a bumper harvest and intense market competition, retailers have helped keep prices for summer treats like strawberries and ice cream low." Private sector surveys and official data showed that overall inflation in the UK economy had been more stable than previously expected before the initial peace agreement between the US and Iran led to a drop in oil prices. Therefore, the market no longer fully expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, whereas previously it had anticipated three to four hikes of 25 basis points each.Japans inventory levels fell 0.6% month-on-month in May, compared with a previous decline of 0.3%.1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 1.61% to $4030.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.54% to $58.76 per ounce. The US Supreme Court ruling solidified the Federal Reserves independence, and hawkish statements from the Fed reinforced tightening expectations, suppressing precious metal prices. Only geopolitical uncertainty provided some support, with an overall downward trend. 2. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 1.72% at $70.42 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 1.34% to $73.57 per barrel. Escalating tensions following the US-Iran conflict slowed energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the market to reassess the assumption of a rapid recovery in oil supply. Actual supply was constrained by tanker backlogs, and the previously oversold futures market further pushed up oil prices. 3. Most London base metals fell. LME zinc rose 0.43% to $3487.0/ton, LME copper fell 0.10% to $13344.5/ton, LME tin fell 0.40% to $50350.0/ton, LME lead fell 0.58% to $1892.5/ton, LME nickel fell 1.79% to $16400.0/ton, and LME aluminum fell 2.55% to $3098.5/ton. 4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59% to 52182.74 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.18% to 7440.43 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.07% to 25820.14 points. Caterpillar and Cisco rose more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones gains. Technology stocks led the gains, with the Wind US Tech Giants Index rising 2.05%, Tesla up over 8%, and Google up nearly 5%. SpaceX rose over 7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.41%, with Baidu Group up over 7% and Hesai Technology up over 6%. 5. European stock indices closed slightly lower: the German DAX fell 0.18% to 24,626.89 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.21% to 8,367.33 points; and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% to 10,484.22 points. Overvaluation of technology stocks triggered profit-taking, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserves interest rate policy put pressure on market risk appetite. 6. Major Asia-Pacific stock indices diverged. The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.15% at 69,468.11 points. The South Korean KOSPI fell 0.2% to 8,394.65 points; the South Korean KOSDAQ rose 8.13%, briefly triggering a circuit breaker during the session. Foreign investors net sold 7.7 trillion won worth of South Korean KOSPI stocks on Monday, marking the largest single-day net selling on record. Indias SENSEX 30 index fell 0.48% to 76,728.37 points.Japans unemployment rate was 2.5% in May, below the expected 2.50% and the previous reading of 2.50%.On June 30th, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices rose on Monday as weekend clashes between the US and Iran highlighted the fragility of the interim peace agreement. Meanwhile, cautious market expectations for a continued recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz limited the potential for further price increases. Sources said that the technical teams from the US and Iran responsible for implementing the interim peace agreement are expected to meet in Doha, the capital of Qatar, in the coming days. Last Thursday, media reports indicated that the amount of crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to its highest level since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran in late February. However, analysts warned that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is far from fully recovered, keeping oil prices high. Bob Yageer, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank, said that people are realizing this. Its impossible to move all the crude oil out of the Gulf in the next week or two, nor is it possible to stuff all the crude oil into the strait to restore pre-war levels.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.