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On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that employment was virtually unchanged in 11 districts, while one district saw slight growth. Manufacturing hiring was strongest in several districts, driven by defense-related business and growing demand for data centers. Wage growth generally remained moderate to moderate, largely in line with inflation. However, districts reported needing to adjust for wage and cost-of-living increases more frequently to cope with rising fuel and other household cost pressures. Most districts described a cautious hiring and laying-off environment, with employees increasingly reluctant to change jobs due to economic uncertainty. Hiring remained cautious, focusing primarily on key positions or filling gaps in staff. Demand in the professional services sector was mixed, partly reflecting the impact of technological and operational changes.On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that economic activity grew at a moderate to moderate pace in ten of the twelve Fed districts, declined slightly in one district, and remained unchanged in one district. Consumer spending varied across districts, with spending disparities between income groups widening as cost pressures increased. High-income households were relatively robust and less sensitive to price increases; middle-income households were described as "saving as much as possible before deciding to spend"; while low-income consumers faced greater financial pressure. Overall, reports indicated increased credit card usage, decreased retail spending, and stronger demand for necessities. Car dealers reported decreased demand for new cars due to costs and fuel expenses, while more people turned to used cars and hybrid vehicles. In contrast, manufacturing activity grew at a moderate to strong pace in nine districts, with only one district reporting a slight decline from the previous period. Banking conditions remained stable in most districts; however, in several districts, delinquencies on mortgages, consumer loans, and agricultural loans increased. Overall, business expectations for the next six months show little change in anticipated growth, as higher uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending have impacted market sentiment.June 4th - The Federal Reserve stated that economic activity in most parts of the United States has grown at a moderate pace in recent weeks, while employment has remained largely unchanged. In its latest Beige Book, the Fed indicated that inflation levels in most Fed districts were higher than in the previous report, primarily due to the impact of the Middle East wars on energy prices. Since the outbreak of the war with Iran, rising energy prices have raised concerns about sustained inflation, leading more policymakers to believe they need to retain all policy options, including a tighter monetary policy. However, many officials stated that current interest rate conditions remain favorable.The Central Bank of Tunisia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7%.June 4th - The Federal Reserve stated on Wednesday that U.S. economic activity has increased slightly in recent weeks, while employment has remained largely flat, and the effects of rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict have spread across various sectors. In its latest Beige Book report, the Fed stated, "The business outlook for the next six months is little changed in terms of expected growth, as heightened uncertainty and signs of weak consumer spending dampened market sentiment." The report added, "Regions noted that energy costs related to the Middle East conflict were the primary driver of inflationary pressures, with their impact spilling over into the transportation, packaging, grocery, and fertilizer sectors."

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.