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May 4th - According to a report by Irans Nokari News Agency on the evening of May 3rd, data from the maritime information company "Tanker Tracker" website shows that 25 oil tankers carrying crude oil left Iran in April, some of which have already reached their destinations. The report stated that seven tankers returned to Iran in the Arabian Sea due to a US blockade, two were seized by the US in the Indian Ocean, and one sailed to the Far East. Of the remaining 15 tankers, most arrived at their destinations in the first half of April.U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose 5 points, and 30-year Treasury futures rose 8 points.U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham: I fully support President Trump’s decision to launch the “Freedom Initiative” aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to the global economy that has been blocked by Iranian “terrorism.”① Iran 1. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Trumps boasting of acting like a "pirate" is a direct admission of crime. 2. An Iranian supertanker "evaded" US Navy tracking and is heading towards the Riau Islands of Indonesia. 3. Iranian official: Iran is studying more than eight alternative trade routes or channels. 4. Iran says all traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must obtain Iranian permission. 5. Foreign Affairs Advisor to Irans Supreme Leader: Trumps recent words and actions cannot hide the "shattering of White House illusions." 6. Manager of the National Iranian Oil Company: Despite the threats, we drilled thousands of oil wells and reservoirs during the war to maintain production and exports. 7. Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is not currently conducting nuclear negotiations. ② United States 1. US media reports that Iran is not demanding the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before direct negotiations. 2. Acting US Attorney General: Trumps statement that military action in Iran is not war is correct, and the claim that it is illegal is invalid. 3. Trump stated in an interview that Irans new proposal is unacceptable. 4. Witkov stated that Washington is currently in dialogue with Iran. Iran has not yet responded. 5. Trump: Operations to guide ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz out of the Strait will begin Monday (Middle East time), noting that US representatives are actively consulting with Iran. 6. US media: Sources say the US submitted a revised draft agreement on Sunday aimed at ending the war, in response to the latest proposals from Iranian officials. ③ Israel 1. Israel approves plan to purchase new fighter jets from the US. 2. The Israeli military claims the earlier rocket attack in northern Israel was a miscalculation. 3. Israeli Prime Minister: An additional 350 billion shekels will be allocated to the Israeli defense budget over the next ten years for domestic ammunition production. 4. The Israeli Prime Minister ordered all government ministers not to give media interviews on Iran. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Irans attempts to collect tolls for ships have had little effect; he is not surprised by the increased number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Media reports reveal details of Irans latest negotiation plan, which includes three phases. The first phase includes "transforming the ceasefire into a full ceasefire within 30 days." ⑥ Other situations: 1. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon resulted in 8 deaths and 11 injuries. 2. Mertz stated that the US troop reduction in Germany was unrelated to his remarks regarding the war with Iran.The British government is prepared to begin consultations on joining the EUs £78 billion loan program for Ukraine.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.