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The SC crude oil futures contract rose more than 5%, currently trading at 738.5 yuan per barrel, a new high since March 23.On September 9th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter expressed support on Tuesday for Washington using its financial power as a foreign policy tool to advance the interests of U.S. allies, including playing a role in financial and political affairs abroad. Bessenter stated, "I believe we can use the U.S. balance sheet to advance foreign policy. Therefore, we have a foreign policy goal, which is to build alliances in the Western Hemisphere." He added, "Argentina was the first country to take this approach; we considered the Millais governments policies sound." Last year, the U.S. provided Argentina with a multi-billion dollar aid package to help stabilize its currency and support Millais ahead of the midterm elections. Bessenters remarks mark a public acknowledgment by the Trump administration of its willingness to use U.S. financial resources to influence foreign politics and economics.September 9th - Japanese stocks rebounded on Wednesday as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East were replaced by a surge in interest in artificial intelligence. The Nikkei 225 was last up 0.35%, after earlier losses, while the broader Topix index rose about 0.24%. Nomura Securities equity strategist Maki Sawada said news of Verizon signing a multi-billion dollar deal with Corning to provide high-density fiber optics for AI infrastructure boosted confidence among Japanese cable manufacturers like Fujitsu. Sawada stated, "Strong performance in semiconductor and AI-related stocks made a positive contribution to the Nikkei 225." Additionally, Japanese stocks were also influenced by a stronger yen, as the market anticipated the Bank of Japan might accelerate its interest rate hikes at its meeting as early as next week, keeping the yen near a near seven-month high. Analysts at Sony Financial Group said in a report, "Since the market seems to have largely priced in the yens appreciation, the market is expected to shift towards buying on dips once the initial selling pressure subsides."On September 9th, it was learned from the Kunming Railway Bureau that in the first eight months of this year, the China-Laos Railway operated 972 international passenger trains, transporting 244,000 cross-border passengers, an increase of over 50% compared to the same period in 2025. Since the opening of international passenger trains on the China-Laos Railway on April 13, 2023, same-day travel between Kunming and Vientiane, Laos, has become commonplace. Currently, four international passenger trains run daily between Kunming South and Vientiane, with the fastest journey taking 9 hours and 36 minutes. The number of cross-border passenger seats has increased from 250 at the beginning to 420, and the number of inbound and outbound passengers has increased from 300 per day initially to a maximum of 1,640. As of September 7th, the China-Laos Railway had operated a total of 3,789 cross-border passenger trains, transporting 926,000 cross-border passengers from more than 120 countries and regions.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, London spot precious metals weakened amid volatility. Geopolitical events continued to escalate, with soaring oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and further increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities in Yemen, coupled with the geopolitical standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, caused Brent crude oil to briefly surge above $99 per barrel. As energy is a core inflation indicator, the surge in oil prices has raised market concerns about a rebound in inflation. The market is repricing for a longer period of high interest rates, putting short-term pressure on gold. 2. In terms of news, Canadas $20 billion retaliatory tariffs on the US took effect on Tuesday. Carney stated that he was not seeking an escalation of the trade war but wanted to accelerate the reduction of dependence on the US. Geopolitically, amidst the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Houthi forces launched a large-scale attack on Saudi energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, prompting Saudi Arabia to shut down several energy installations. Regarding central banks, Chinas gold reserves at the end of August were 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2386.57 tons), an increase of 650,000 ounces (approximately 20.22 tons) month-on-month, marking the 22nd consecutive month of gold purchases by the central bank. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains around 60%, indicating significant market divergence. However, considering the impact of the US-Iran conflict on oil prices and Warshs hawkish comments, the probability of a rate hike is expected to remain high. Nevertheless, its anticipated that the Fed will raise rates only a limited number of times this year. If a rate hike does occur at the September FOMC meeting, it can be considered a confirmed move, potentially hindering a short-term rebound in gold and increasing volatility, but the overall upward trend may remain intact. The upcoming release of US August PPI and CPI data will likely provide strong guidance for the Feds interest rate decision, and the market may experience increased intraday volatility around these data releases.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.