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February 6th, Futures News – According to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed slightly lower on Thursday, with the benchmark contract essentially flat, mainly dragged down by a decline in international crude oil prices and weak export sales data. Traders said the decline in international crude oil futures unlocked arbitrage opportunities in the soybean oil/soybean meal trade, and weak soybean oil export sales data put pressure on the soybean oil market. However, the clarification of the US biofuel blending policy and a bright demand outlook limited the downside potential for soybean oil. The US Department of Agricultures weekly export sales report showed that for the week ending January 29, 2026, net sales of US soybean oil for the 2025/26 marketing year were 1,000 tons, down 96% from the previous week and 95% from the four-week average.February 6th - A CICC research report states that while the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to "shrink" its balance sheet in the short term, the threshold for continued "balance sheet expansion" and QE has clearly risen. If the Fed is unwilling to support fiscal easing through "balance sheet expansion," a new temporary monetary-fiscal coordination approach might be for the Fed to increase interest rate cuts and the Treasury to increase short-term debt issuance, first promoting financial deregulation, and then initiating the "balance sheet reduction" process. The Feds final interest rate cuts may exceed market expectations, and the dollar easing trade may return in the short term. A steepening US Treasury yield curve coupled with financial deregulation is beneficial to US bank stocks. The Fed may determine the end of the gold bull market, but this turning point has not yet arrived. Chinese stocks and global commodities are only temporarily under pressure, awaiting the return of easing expectations.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: The risks are more skewed toward inflation, and we are responding to that.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: Inflation is slightly high and has some stickiness.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: The labor market is still performing very well, which is good news.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.