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US President Trump: Oil prices have fallen sharply.On June 30th, Al Jazeera reported that maritime security analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu stated that there is a "misalignment" in the interpretation of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. Iran tends to interpret the agreement strictly according to its text, while the US emphasizes its overall spirit. This difference is particularly evident in the Strait of Hormuz passage arrangements. The analysis suggests that Iran hopes to establish the current arrangement as a bilateral temporary ceasefire agreement with international legal force, while the US views it as an "understanding" that Iran will guarantee unimpeded navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days, after which further discussions will proceed. Hudisteanu pointed out that Iran currently prioritizes the Strait of Hormuz issue and uses it as a key bargaining chip in negotiations with the US; while the US hopes to resolve the Strait issue quickly and shift the focus of negotiations to the Iranian nuclear issue.Ukrainian President Zelensky: If Russia does not end the war, we will have to postpone this deadline again.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Since the full escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian military has set 15 deadlines for the complete occupation of the Donetsk region, but has failed to achieve them all.On June 30th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECBs 25-basis-point interest rate hike in June was not a "precautionary" move to guard against future inflation risks, but rather a "prudent decision" based on the economic and inflation situation at the time. She stated that if the rate hike had not been implemented, inflation would have remained above the 2% target in 2027 and 2028, and new circumstances since the June meeting, including the decline in oil prices, have not changed the ECBs initial assessment. Lagarde emphasized that the ECB now has a more comprehensive system of data, indicators, and forecasts, and monetary policy will adhere to the principle of "data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision-making," rather than relying on forward guidance. She also pointed out that in the current market environment, financial conditions often adjust themselves based on economic data, allowing monetary policy to take effect before formal decisions are made, giving the ECB more time to assess changes in the situation.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

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The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.