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February 5th - In a report, Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank Research stated that the prospect of a Bank of England rate cut has significantly strengthened, but the pace of cuts may be relatively slow. The Bank of England decided on Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% by a 5-4 vote, and hinted at possible further rate cuts in the coming months. Raja said, "The risks remain skewed towards a slower pace of rate cuts, but we remain confident that the Bank of England will cut rates twice this year."U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: Warsh is fully qualified to be the Federal Reserve Chairman.U.S. Senate Majority Leader Thune: Democrats demands for funding to the Department of Homeland Security are "unrealistic".U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant testified before the Senate Banking Committee, reiterating his testimony from the House Financial Services Committee the previous day.February 5th - U.S. job openings unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since 2020 in December, while layoffs rose slightly, further indicating weak demand for labor. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that job openings fell to 6.54 million in December from a revised 6.93 million in November, below market expectations. The decline in job openings was primarily driven by professional and business services and retail, while the increase in layoffs reflected larger-scale layoffs in the transportation and warehousing sectors. Hiring increased somewhat, but remained at a low level overall. The data suggests that businesses remain cautious about the pace of hiring as they assess their workforce size and the outlook for economic activity. This data also reinforces the Federal Reserves assessment that wage growth is not a source of inflationary pressures. The report showed that the ratio of job openings to job losses was 0.9 in December, a measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve to gauge the balance of labor supply and demand. This ratio peaked at 2 to 1 in 2022.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

截屏2022-08-05 上午9.50.18.png 

 

The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.


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