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On February 13th, JPMorgan strategists recommended selling two-year U.S. Treasury bonds as a "tactical" move, arguing that the U.S. economic growth outlook remains robust, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates significantly. The strategist team wrote in a report, "The economic fundamentals are strong, and once Kevin Warshs nomination is confirmed and he takes over as Fed chair, it will be very difficult for him to influence the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)." The U.S. will release a key inflation report on Friday, which could provide clues to the Feds next move. If it shows easing price pressures, demand for short-term, policy-sensitive Treasuries may rise. This week, Treasury yields fluctuated, influenced by a sell-off in tech stocks and strong U.S. jobs data, sparking discussions about how Warsh, Trumps nominee for next Fed chair, will handle policy.February 13th - The overnight SHIBOR was 1.2710%, down 9.70 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4300%, down 8.80 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5110%, down 7.20 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5500%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5790%, down 0.10 basis points.On February 13th, Futures News reported that regarding refining costs, crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical risk premiums, resulting in high refining costs. Gasoline wholesale prices rebounded before the holiday, leading to a corrective improvement in the gasoline refining spread. Diesel demand remained weak, with wholesale prices hovering at low levels, causing the diesel refining spread to continue declining. As of the crude oil closing price on February 11th: the domestic gasoline refining spread was 791.74 yuan/ton, a rebound of 63.23 yuan/ton compared to the end of January; the domestic diesel refining spread was 214.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.54 yuan/ton compared to the end of January. The high crude oil costs are unlikely to diminish their suppressive effect on gasoline and diesel refining spreads in the future.Huawei Chinas official Weibo account announced that the Huawei China Partner Conference 2026 will be held from March 19th to 20th.February 13th - The National Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transportation Equipment Quality Inspection and Testing Center (Guangdong) has recently received formal approval from the State Administration for Market Regulation for its establishment. The Guangdong Provincial Special Equipment Inspection and Research Institute (Guangdong Provincial Special Equipment Accident Investigation Center), under the Guangdong Provincial Administration for Market Regulation, is responsible for its construction. The establishment of this center is an important measure by the State Administration for Market Regulation to promote the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse and a quality powerhouse, marking a new stage in the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry in South China. Located in Foshan, a hydrogen energy industry cluster, the center will provide crucial support for the safe development, technological innovation, and standard setting of the hydrogen energy industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and even nationwide.

Before the US NFP, the USD/JPY is likely to decrease to roughly 132.00

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 14:49

截屏2022-08-05 上午9.50.18.png 

 

The difficulties that the USD/JPY pair met around 133.00 during the Asian session are now in full force. As investors predict a disappointing result from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, the asset has printed a low of 132.77 and is projected to decrease further to about 132.00.

 

JP Morgan experts projected that the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be poorer than expected at 200K in the July labor market statistics, compared to the consensus expectation of 250k jobs gained in the month. The US economy produced 372k new jobs in the labor market in June. The labor market is under great pressure as a result of data showing a continued fall in job creation. The unemployment rate, though, will be constant at 3.6 percent.

 

Increased labor market dangers are a result of rising interest rates and their compounding impacts. Due to pricey dollars, business players are unable to invest without reluctance. Low investment possibilities cannot thus speed the process of creating jobs.

 

Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' enhanced interest rate ambitions, the US dollar index (DXY) has thrown up the support of 106.00. According to Cleveland Fed President Loretta J. Mester, ending the policy tightening program without detecting a decline in the inflation rate for several months is not conceivable at interest rates above 4 percent .

 

Tokyo's entire household expenditure has dramatically climbed from the previous report of -0.5 percent and the predictions of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent. As an inflation indicator, the economic data may aid the yen bulls. The economic data have greatly improved, which means that the inflation rate may climb much further. The findings may, however, be largely impacted by growing energy expenditures. However, a hike in the labor cost index is shortly to come in order to keep the inflation rate over 2 percent.


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