EUR/USD
1.16503
-0.076%
Gold
4466.65
-0.251%
Oil
58.050
-0.343%
USD/JPY
157.346
0.310%
GBP/USD
1.34280
-0.091%
GBP/JPY
211.289
0.233%
Real-time News
1. Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Market expectations for Decembers non-farm payrolls are widely divergent, ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. FactSet generally expects 55,000, the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000, Reuters expects 60,000, and Interactive Brokers is the most optimistic, predicting 100,000. The market generally expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5%. 2. Economist Views: EY-Parthenons chief economist points out that even strong data could be misleading, with 2025 job growth being the weakest in decades (excluding 2020). The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union projects only 710,000 new jobs in 2025, the worst performance since 2003, excluding recessions. 3. Fed Policy Path: CME data shows a nearly 90% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January, and only about an 11% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut; the Fed meeting minutes suggest a January rate cut is unlikely. 4. Bank of Americas view: Future interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. A drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower would support holding rates steady, while a rise above 4.7% could push for a rate cut. The baseline expectation is no further rate cuts during Powells term. 5. Everbright Futures view: The US presidents proposal for a significant increase in military spending in fiscal year 2027 has raised suspicions; gold prices initially fell but then rose amid geopolitical events; the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 208,000, lower than expected, indicating a solid labor market fundamental. 6. Gain Capitals view: The market expects 60,000 new jobs, compared to 64,000 previously; the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% to 4.5% (November unemployment rate is missing); hourly wage growth may rise to 3.6%. 7. US Dollar Analysis: XS.com analysts believe the US dollar is in a fragile position; unless non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, its upward momentum will be limited; signs of weakness in the labor market could quickly break the current temporary balance of the US dollar. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Thai Prime Minister: Financial regulators will be responsible for overseeing matters related to gold.January 9th - According to the Financial Times, executives at US shale oil companies have warned President Trump that his plans to take over Venezuelas oil industry and drive down oil prices are pushing domestic production to the brink. An executive at a major shale oil company stated that the plan is "clearly detrimental to US producers." Texas oil executives have long been dissatisfied with Trumps insistence on lower oil prices. The plight of the Texas oil industry is deepening, with falling oil prices forcing producers to shut down drilling rigs needed to maintain production growth. Edwards, CEO of private oil producer Latigo Petroleum, stated, "The government is sending a signal that we would rather spend American money supporting Venezuelas oil industry than support our existing independent companies." Only the largest energy groups, such as Chevron, possess the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital, legal teams, and security resources required to enter Venezuela. For smaller operators, a recovery in Venezuelas oil industry would only exacerbate the markets oversupply.According to the Financial Times, shale oil giants have warned Trump that his plans to control Venezuelas oil industry and drive down crude oil prices will risk cutting U.S. oil production.January 9th - According to the Institute of Geophysics of the Tajik Academy of Sciences, a 5.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in eastern Tajikistan at 2:14 AM local time on January 9th. The tremor was felt in the capital, Dushanbe. As of now, there are no reports of casualties.
