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January 13th - According to Reuters, traders increased their bets on Tuesday that the Federal Reserve might not wait until Fed Chairman Jerome Powells term ends in May to cut interest rates, after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that basic consumer price increases were slightly lower than expected. While traders still believe a June rate cut is the most likely outcome, the latest data projects a 42% probability of a Fed rate cut in April, up from 38% before the data release.January 13th - Market analyst Ira Jersey stated that the reassurance brought by the lack of a substantial surge in US inflation has led to blind optimism in the market and pushed up bond yields. The overall CPI increase of 2.7% year-on-year implies that the core PCE annual rate will be below 2.5%, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance. While a January rate cut is not considered a certainty, it undoubtedly brings the possibility of a March rate cut under consideration.The New York Times: U.S. grocery prices rose 0.7% in December, the largest monthly increase since October 2022. Compared to the same period last year, prices rose 2.4%.New York silver futures extended gains to 3.00% on the day, currently trading at $87.66 per ounce.January 13th - Market analyst Chris Ansty stated that given the previously low data for October and November due to suspected measurement errors, a price rebound was expected in December, making the 0.2% core CPI monthly rate seem much more moderate. Of the 73 economists surveyed, only 11 predicted a core CPI monthly rate of 0.2%, making this result surprising to the vast majority.

0.8450 is being reached by EUR/GBP as the prospect of a UK recession looms

Daniel Rogers

Aug 05, 2022 14:46

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Following a huge upward rise from 0.8360 on Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair has subsequently turned sideways around 0.8430 in the Tokyo session. After the Bank of England (BOE) hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, the cross displayed a significant upward rise (bps) (bps). The BOE lifted interest rates by 50 basis points in succession, bringing them to 1.75 percent.

 

The investing community is aware that UK household earnings have been unsteady during the preceding few months. In addition, the economy's inflation rate is fast expanding. The inflation rate was 9.4 percent prior. The recent statement by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey that price increases might exceed 13 percent has sent shockwaves across the market.

 

The runaway inflation is now escalating, leaving the BOE with very little flexibility to tighten its monetary policy. The BOE is in poor shape as a result of the dismal economic data and the continuing political upheaval following the departure of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. A recession in the UK economy is extremely probable in the case that the inflation rate is close to 13 percent.

 

German manufacturing order numbers for the Eurozone have decreased by 0.4 percent against an anticipated 0.8 percent decline and a prior monthly contraction of 0.2 percent. Falling orders from factories indicate sluggish demand in Germany as a whole. It is vital to remember that Germany is a key element of the European Union (EU), and that economic data from Germany has a huge effect on people who favor the common currency.


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