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1. Agricultural consultancy AgRural reported on Monday that as of last Thursday, the second-season corn harvest in Brazils south-central region for 2026 was 60% complete, up from 49% the previous week but down from 68% at the same time last year. AgRural stated that while the overall harvest progress was acceptable last week, some producing areas lost momentum due to returning rains, particularly in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and southern São Paulo, where rainfall hampered field operations. 2. The Saudi Ministry of Defense stated that it intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraqi territory. These drones, belonging to Iranian-backed militias, targeted oil facilities in the eastern region and Riyadh. The Ministry reiterated Saudi Arabias right to respond. 3. A statement indicated that the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have used drones to target Saudi oil transportation infrastructure. 4. According to Futures Daily, on July 27th, a document from EVE Energy titled "Price Adjustment Letter Regarding the Transmission of Consumption Tax Costs" circulated within the lithium battery industry. The price adjustment letter indicates that, according to Announcement No. 20 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration, the national consumption tax on lithium primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries will be gradually reinstated starting September 1, 2026. This policy represents a legally mandated rigid cost change, and the company and its subsidiaries will transmit the consumption tax costs in accordance with the rules. According to reports, EVE Energys price adjustment letter is the first formal notification from a leading domestic battery company to its customers regarding cost transmission after the implementation of the new battery consumption tax policy. 5. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China and 126,000 tons to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 6. Goldman Sachs: If a new agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days or weeks, we expect the risk premium for TTF to decrease significantly, potentially falling below €50/MWh. If Middle Eastern energy exports only gradually return to normal by 2027, TTF natural gas prices are expected to rise to over €100/MWh by December 2026. 7. Citigroup traders are betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the banks global head of short-term interest rate trading, their positions will profit if the Fed keeps rates stable. Singal stated, "We still maintain our expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged." He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has clearly stated that he wants the market to focus on data, and the data indicates that the Fed does not currently need to raise rates. 8. According to foreign media reports, the South African Sugar Industry Association (SA Canegrowers) has urgently appealed to Trade, Industry and Competition Minister ParksTau to intervene and ultimately complete an update to the sugar import tariff mechanism to reflect the current situation in the domestic sugar market.The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Employment Index for July was 12.2, down from 13.9 in July.The Dallas Feds new orders index for July was 6.4, down from 2.3 in the previous month.The Dallas Feds manufactured goods price index for July was 25.6, compared to 28.6 in the previous month.The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Raw Materials Payments Index for July was 41.3, compared to 42.4 in the previous month.

Despite the Bank of England's less hawkish forecasts, GBP/USD is expected to rise beyond 1.2170

Daniel Rogers

Aug 04, 2022 11:52

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The GBP/USD pair has showed a modest retreat after failing to reclaim the 1.2170 resistance level. As the US dollar index (DXY) is projected to extend losses below 106.30, the upside stays favored. After a good fall to the round-number support around 1.2100, the asset has resumed its general uptrend.

 

As investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, the cable might exhibit some volatility in the near future (BOE). In consideration of market expectations, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will raise interest rates to 1.75 percent as a second successive 50 basis point (bps) increase is anticipated.

 

No one could dispute the reality that households in the United Kingdom are suffering tremendous pricing pressures. The inflation rate has risen to 9.4 percent, and there have been no indicators of a peak as of yet. The rate of inflation might reach double digits if the rate of price growth continues to accelerate, and families will be forced to pay more for identical quantities.

 

Well, a 50 basis point rate boost is insufficient to battle the inflation monster. However, dismal growth estimates and a decrease in the Labor Cost Index prevent the BOE from sounding excessively hawkish.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing uncertain movement as the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has exacerbated protracted Sino-US tensions. The United States has held the global leadership position for a considerable amount of time, and China is keen to take over. Therefore, the United States' backing for Taiwan, a country with enormous technical potential, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and China.


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