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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

Despite the Bank of England's less hawkish forecasts, GBP/USD is expected to rise beyond 1.2170

Daniel Rogers

Aug 04, 2022 11:52

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The GBP/USD pair has showed a modest retreat after failing to reclaim the 1.2170 resistance level. As the US dollar index (DXY) is projected to extend losses below 106.30, the upside stays favored. After a good fall to the round-number support around 1.2100, the asset has resumed its general uptrend.

 

As investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, the cable might exhibit some volatility in the near future (BOE). In consideration of market expectations, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will raise interest rates to 1.75 percent as a second successive 50 basis point (bps) increase is anticipated.

 

No one could dispute the reality that households in the United Kingdom are suffering tremendous pricing pressures. The inflation rate has risen to 9.4 percent, and there have been no indicators of a peak as of yet. The rate of inflation might reach double digits if the rate of price growth continues to accelerate, and families will be forced to pay more for identical quantities.

 

Well, a 50 basis point rate boost is insufficient to battle the inflation monster. However, dismal growth estimates and a decrease in the Labor Cost Index prevent the BOE from sounding excessively hawkish.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing uncertain movement as the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has exacerbated protracted Sino-US tensions. The United States has held the global leadership position for a considerable amount of time, and China is keen to take over. Therefore, the United States' backing for Taiwan, a country with enormous technical potential, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and China.