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On July 15th, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the PBOCs various tools effectively offset the RMB 1 trillion liquidity gap caused by factors such as reserve requirement payments and cash injections in the first half of the year. The average overnight money market rate (DR001) for the first six months was 1.31%, indicating overall stable operation. Zou Lan also mentioned that to better meet the short-term liquidity management needs of the banking system and enhance the precision and effectiveness of monetary policy interest rate control, at the end of June, the PBOC added overnight reverse repurchase operations to its open market operations, further enriching its toolbox, and narrowed the range of interest rates for temporary repurchase operations from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. In addition, the PBOC created a repurchase tool for overseas central banks to facilitate RMB liquidity management and RMB bond asset allocation for overseas central banks and similar institutions; the first operation has recently been completed.On July 15th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jean-Claude Nagel stated that the ECB is closely monitoring energy price movements following the renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict and increased geopolitical uncertainty. He noted that the past few weeks have been "full of hope and disappointment." The renewed conflict between the US and Iran underscores the continued instability of the current situation. Nagel stated, "Energy price movements are a key factor in determining the future inflation outlook. Monetary policy will remain highly vigilant." The ECB will hold its policy meeting on July 22nd and 23rd, and will soon enter a pre-meeting quiet period. The market widely expects the bank to maintain interest rates unchanged. However, investors still anticipate policymakers will raise rates again later this year to curb inflationary pressures stemming from the Iranian conflict. Nagel emphasized that borrowing costs are currently at an "appropriate" level following the policy decision made in June. He said, "From a monetary policy perspective, continuing to act cautiously remains prudent, but decisive action will be taken if necessary."On July 15th, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the central bank is continuously optimizing and improving the monetary policy framework, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy framework from primarily quantitative control to primarily price-based control, and striving to create a suitable monetary and financial environment. He added that the single indicator of loans can no longer fully reflect the financing situation of the real economy, and suggested that investors consider both loans and bonds together, while also paying closer attention to indicators such as interest rates and financing structure, which comprehensively reflect social financing conditions.On July 15, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the future, monetary and credit policies will shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, and the slowdown and improvement of loan quality may become one of the new normal aspects of macroeconomic operation.On July 15th, ship tracking data showed that two oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil changed their destination signals to Pakistan, a rare move that may indicate these vessels are seeking a relatively safe anchorage to await developments following the reimposition of a US maritime blockade. The tankers "Rani" and "Amil," carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude oil, changed their destination signals to Karachi, Pakistan, on Tuesday. However, it is unlikely that these two tankers will unload their cargo in Pakistan, as doing so could expose Pakistan to violating US sanctions. Kpler data shows that Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude oil for at least 10 years. Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang stated that the ships "may choose to sail closer to Pakistan to avoid US naval vessels and mark Karachi as a transit destination along their route."

Despite the Bank of England's less hawkish forecasts, GBP/USD is expected to rise beyond 1.2170

Daniel Rogers

Aug 04, 2022 11:52

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The GBP/USD pair has showed a modest retreat after failing to reclaim the 1.2170 resistance level. As the US dollar index (DXY) is projected to extend losses below 106.30, the upside stays favored. After a good fall to the round-number support around 1.2100, the asset has resumed its general uptrend.

 

As investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, the cable might exhibit some volatility in the near future (BOE). In consideration of market expectations, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will raise interest rates to 1.75 percent as a second successive 50 basis point (bps) increase is anticipated.

 

No one could dispute the reality that households in the United Kingdom are suffering tremendous pricing pressures. The inflation rate has risen to 9.4 percent, and there have been no indicators of a peak as of yet. The rate of inflation might reach double digits if the rate of price growth continues to accelerate, and families will be forced to pay more for identical quantities.

 

Well, a 50 basis point rate boost is insufficient to battle the inflation monster. However, dismal growth estimates and a decrease in the Labor Cost Index prevent the BOE from sounding excessively hawkish.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing uncertain movement as the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has exacerbated protracted Sino-US tensions. The United States has held the global leadership position for a considerable amount of time, and China is keen to take over. Therefore, the United States' backing for Taiwan, a country with enormous technical potential, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and China.