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Spot gold and silver rebounded quickly, currently trading at $4,864/oz and $83.40/oz respectively.10-year US Treasury futures fell 1 point, and 30-year futures fell 7 points.February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, Mexican President Sinbaum announced plans to send humanitarian aid to Cuba, including food and other basic necessities, while simultaneously seeking to resume oil shipments to Cuba "through all diplomatic channels" despite US restrictions. On the evening of January 31st, US President Trump publicly stated that he had asked Sinbaum to halt oil shipments to Cuba. On the same day, Mexican Foreign Minister De la Fuente responded that Mexico would not suspend humanitarian aid to Cuba.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.