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July 13th - According to South Korean media reports, industry insiders revealed on Monday that Samsung Electronics has begun preparations for the production of Teslas (TSLA.O) next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) chip, the AI5. Previously, a Samsung executive posted on LinkedIn that Teslas AI5 chip had completed the tape-out process, meaning that the final design work before mass production has been completed. The AI5 is a chip developed by Tesla to provide computing power for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, the Optimus humanoid robot, and AI data centers.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: He will guide the government to support three key projects: semiconductors, artificial intelligence data centers, and physical artificial intelligence.July 13 – Europe has been maintaining air transport by importing jet fuel from the US and Asia, increasing refinery output, and drawing on reserves, but the risk of further supply disruptions has increased as tensions in the Middle East escalate again. The UK, France, and Germany are particularly vulnerable. Data released by consultancy Energy Aspects on June 18 shows that Europes jet fuel supply deficit in the third quarter is expected to approach 600,000 barrels per day, while the US and Asia-Pacific regions have supply surpluses of 116,000 barrels per day and 425,000 barrels per day, respectively. Energy Aspects stated that European jet fuel inventories stood at 38 million barrels at the beginning of June. Reuters calculations show that European inventories could only meet less than 30 days of demand, making it the tightest supply region among the worlds major jet fuel markets. Data from the International Energy Agencys latest monthly report shows that as of the end of May, jet fuel inventories were estimated to have increased by 10% year-on-year, while refinery output increased by 30%. This also means that Europe has only about a months buffer time. Energy analyst Janiv Shah said, "Based on current developments, we expect the market tightness to continue into August."On July 13th, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures opened lower and then fluctuated downwards. Canadian canola futures surged, with the benchmark contract closing more than 5% higher, mainly reflecting the threat to canola crop growth posed by recent excessive rainfall on the grasslands and the heatwave in the EU. Strengthening Chicago soybean and soybean oil futures, along with a rebound in international crude oil futures, also provided support. Rapeseed meal spot prices followed the market decline slightly. On the demand side, demand was affected by heavy rainfall in South China, hindering the circulation of domestic rapeseed meal spot goods. Some crushing plants shut down, resulting in reduced rapeseed meal production and a slight decrease in inventory. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue their volatile adjustment.On July 13th, Daiwa issued a research report predicting that Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) will raise its AI capital expenditure forecast, which will put pressure on its mid-term earnings. Meanwhile, while growth in the gaming business has slowed due to a high base, its market share growth momentum remains strong. The bank lowered its 2026-2028 earnings per share forecasts for the company by 1% to 6% to reflect the impact. Daiwa significantly raised its 2026 AI capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from RMB 108 billion to approximately RMB 181 billion to reflect the companys stronger commitment to AI investment and improved chip supply. Although higher depreciation will drag down its near-to-mid-term earnings performance, it is also expected to drive faster expansion of the cloud business and monetization of AI demand, which is expected to be released from the second half of 2026. Daiwa maintains its "Buy" rating on Tencent, but lowers its target price from HKD 700 to HKD 670.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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