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Dubai Airport handled 2.5 million passengers in March, a 65.7% decrease year-on-year.On May 4th, local time, on May 2nd, Ali Nikozadeh, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, emphasized in an interview along the Strait of Hormuz that "the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and Iran will absolutely not back down a single step from the Strait of Hormuz." Nikozadeh stated that Parliament will approve a "Strait of Hormuz Management Law," which includes: a permanent ban on Israeli ships passing through this crucial waterway; ships from "hostile states" must pay "war reparations" to obtain passage permits; and other ships will only need Iranian authorization to pass.Sources indicate that Qatar Energys official selling price for May marine crude oil is set at a premium of $17.05 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai price; and an official selling price for onshore crude oil is set at a premium of $18 per barrel.Asian stocks surged on Monday, boosted by strong earnings reports from major U.S. tech companies and comments from President Trump that the U.S. would begin guiding some neutral ships stranded in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index, excluding Japan, rose as much as 2.7%, a record high. Benchmark indices in South Korea and Taiwan, both dominated by tech stocks, soared by more than 3.5%. SK Hynix shares jumped nearly 10%, and TSMC shares jumped over 6%. Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, said the current strength in markets like South Korea is due to AI-driven trading or speculation. She said she is “cautiously optimistic about Asian markets overall” because geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices could constrain stock markets.On May 4th, Ryoo Sangdai, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea, stated that its time to consider raising interest rates, as economic growth seems unlikely to fall significantly short of the central banks earlier forecasts, while inflation may exceed previous expectations. Ryoo, who is also a member of the Bank of Koreas Monetary Policy Committee, cited the stronger-than-expected economic resilience following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the rising inflationary pressures. The Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged since July of last year. In February, the Bank of Korea projected 2% economic growth and 2.2% inflation for the year. While policymakers initially expected the unrest in Iran to drag down economic growth and push up prices, recent data shows that the growth outlook has not deteriorated as feared due to strong semiconductor shipments, while inflation risks have increased. Regarding the won exchange rate, Ryoo stated that from an economic fundamentals perspective, the won remains weaker than in the past, although the market does not seem to see the current level as a major problem. The won recently hit its lowest level against the US dollar since the global financial crisis. Speaking about concerns about the economys reliance on semiconductors, Ryoo stated that the key risk lies in whether the cycle shifts or whether the spillover effects are lower than expected, rather than the industrys increasing share itself.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.