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March 11 - Shipping data released on Tuesday suggests that Saudi Arabias oil shipments via the Red Sea are on track to reach a record high in March, though still far below the decline in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the London Financial Exchange Group shows that Yanbu Ports average loading volume for the first nine days of March reached 2.2 million barrels per day, up from nearly 2 million barrels per day last week and 1.1 million barrels per day in February. Before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 6 million barrels of oil per day through the strait. Kpler shipping data indicates that at least 40 tankers may load in March, potentially pushing exports above 4 million barrels per day. However, while traders claim the ports capacity exceeds 4.5 million barrels per day, actual loading volumes rarely exceed 2.5 million barrels per day.Saudi Arabia claims it shot down two drones that were flying toward the Shayba oil field.March 11 – National Australia Bank (NAB) stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may now raise interest rates in both March and May, with a peak rate of 4.35%. The banks economics and markets research team noted this is an adjustment from their previous forecast of a single rate hike in May with a peak rate of 4.1%. A key reason for this change in view is the hawkish comments from the RBA Governor and Deputy Governor over the past week. The team stated that the RBA appears to have "very limited tolerance for upward inflationary pressures, but perhaps slightly more tolerance for slower economic growth. This means the least regrettable policy move would be a rate hike in March."The market currently estimates a 70% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates to 4.10% on March 17.Economists from Westpac, ANZ, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank have all revised their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australias interest rates, now expecting a rate hike next week.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-03 上午9.47.05.png

 

In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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