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July 6th - Members of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Researchs (NZIER) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee held nearly equal views, reflecting uncertainty about the Reserve Bank of New Zealands (RBNZ) policy outlook ahead of its July meeting. The NZIER Shadow Monetary Policy Committee narrowly supported keeping the RBNZs Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% in July, but called it a move roughly equivalent to a 25 basis point rate hike. Those supporting raising the OCR to a neutral level as soon as possible cited rising inflation as the primary reason. Weak demand and high unemployment were considered key reasons for carefully weighing tightening policies. Members differed on the impact of oil prices, with some believing the inflationary impact was temporary and waning, while others warned that price pressures could persist for a longer period. Some members indicated that the next significant policy assessment would be around the time of the second-quarter CPI data release. The committee unanimously agreed that the OCR should rise to 3% to 3.25% over the next year. Several committee members stated that monetary policy needs to gradually return to a neutral level, while also pointing out that weak demand and high unemployment mean the Fed should carefully manage the pace of tightening.International crude oil prices are trending weakly. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion prices of crude oil between domestic and international markets.Spot gold and silver rebounded from their lows; a chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals, converted between domestic and international markets.July 6th - Samsung Electronics, the worlds largest memory chip manufacturer, is set to release its second-quarter results on Tuesday. Analysts average forecast predicts preliminary operating profit of 84.3 trillion won (approximately $55.1 billion), an 18-fold increase year-over-year, exceeding its full-year profit for 2025. Revenue is expected to grow by 127%, reaching a record 169 trillion won. Since June, chip stocks have experienced several significant corrections due to market concerns about intensified competition, potential overcapacity, and the return on massive AI investments. This further amplifies the importance of Samsungs results, as market expectations are already high, leaving little room for the company to disappoint. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Financial, stated, "Samsungs results come at a time when the market is simultaneously questioning both the supply and demand sides of the memory chip investment logic. If the results are close to market expectations, it will help quell the controversy and benefit Samsung."Futures News, July 6th - According to foreign media reports, Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are likely to open lower on Monday morning, mainly reflecting weak market fundamentals. Brent crude oil futures also fell slightly during Mondays electronic trading session. Analysts say that expected increases in Malaysian palm oil production could lead to higher inventories, impacting the early performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release June palm oil supply and demand data this week. A survey indicates that palm oil inventories at the end of June may rise to a record high for the same period, as production growth has outpaced demand growth. Dealers estimate that Indian palm oil imports in June may fall to a 14-month low due to weak demand and narrowing price differentials with competing oils, prompting buyers to reduce purchases. However, Indonesias mandatory B50 biodiesel blending program, implemented from July 1st, will boost domestic consumption and tighten export supplies. Combined with the El Niño phenomenon threatening palm oil production in Southeast Asia, this will limit the downside potential for palm oil prices.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-03 上午9.47.05.png

 

In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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