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The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 4%, while the Hang Seng Index is currently down 2.77%. Gold stocks, optical communications, non-ferrous metals, chips, building materials and cement are among the biggest losers.1. Market Dynamics: Platinum and palladium futures contracts both hit their daily limit down, falling by 16% to 552.15 yuan/gram and 413.7 yuan/gram respectively; Shanghai gold futures fell by over 11%, and Shanghai silver futures hit their daily limit down; precious metals experienced a sell-off across the board. 2. Core Drivers: US President Trump nominated the hawkish Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, coupled with the unexpected rise in US December PPI inflation (annual rate of 3%, higher than expected), shaking market expectations for aggressive easing, easing concerns about the Feds independence, and shifting macroeconomic expectations. 3. Risk Control Pressure: CME significantly raised margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the second time this year, with gold margin also increasing (from 6% to 8% for non-high-risk accounts), significantly raising holding costs and intensifying liquidity tightening pressure. 4. Fund Flows: Speculative funds mainly flowed out; as of January 30, gold, silver, and palladium recorded reductions for 6, 2, and 3 consecutive days respectively, and the North American gold mining index fell sharply. 5. Nanhua Futures: Short-term "tightening trading" expectations do not change the medium-to-long-term "easing trend," and the foundation for a platinum and palladium bull market remains; however, the Warsh nomination brings concerns about a potential disruption of the underlying logic, and caution is advised against opening gaps due to high volatility. Position control is also crucial. 6. Yide Futures: The sharp decline disrupted the upward trend, but undoubtedly opened up opportunities for allocation trading. 7. Guoxin Futures: The trend of platinum group metals is anchored to the macro sentiment of the gold and silver sector. The Warsh nomination shakes the easing narrative, and CMEs increased protection measures exacerbate liquidity tightening; platinum and palladium may exhibit a weak and volatile situation, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. 8. Other news: Parts of the US government face the risk of a shutdown, and House members need to return in two days to review the spending bill; Federal Reserve official Milan stated that he will continue to serve as a governor until Congress confirms a successor, emphasizing that current interest rates are still too restrictive. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.O) from $850 to $950.Samsung SDI: We expect strong annual sales growth of battery energy storage systems by 2030, driven by demand from data centers.The SC crude oil futures contract hit its daily limit down, falling 7.02% to 449 yuan per barrel.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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