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On March 4th, Converas Antonio Ruggiero noted in a report that the pound faces significant risks if the Middle East conflict continues. He stated that while it is too early to assess whether the conflict will have a substantial negative economic impact, its performance is particularly noteworthy given the UKs fragile political and economic backdrop. He believes that rising oil prices due to the war could drag down economic growth while pushing up inflation. "This will lead to lower tax revenues and increase government borrowing costs due to rising risk premiums," he pointed out, noting that the improved fiscal space announced in Tuesdays spring budget would become meaningless in this context.On March 4th, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that he believes continued interest rate cuts remain appropriate, as it is too early to assess the impact of the Middle East wars on the US economy. In an interview on Wednesday, Milan said, "I believe it is appropriate to continue taking action. So far, the events of the weekend have not caused me to change any of my forecasts for the labor market or inflation." Oil prices surged after the US-Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend, and investors lowered their expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2026. Some Fed officials who spoke this week suggested that this increased uncertainty about the outlook—which Fed watchers interpreted as the central bank potentially keeping rates unchanged for a longer period. Even before the attacks on Iran, several officials highlighted signs of stabilization in the labor market, suggesting waiting for further signals that inflation would fall back to the 2% target before authorizing further rate cuts. Milan holds the opposite view. "When you look at the overall data for the labor market, I still have reason to believe it needs more support from monetary policy," he said.Israel Defense Forces: Missiles originating from Iran have been identified and the interception system has been activated.The Polish złoty rose slightly against the euro after the countrys central bank cut interest rates.March 4th - According to US media reports, although US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that the 15% general tariff rate is likely to take effect this week, the EU expects the US will not raise tariffs on European goods. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the EU has received assurances that the US will maintain the 10% general tariff level on EU exports.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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