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On March 27th, former Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Kazuo Monma stated on Friday that given the unprecedented challenges the Middle East conflict presents to interest rate setting, the BOJ is likely to warn in its upcoming quarterly report that underlying inflation could fluctuate sharply. Monma pointed out that before the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28th, the BOJ seemed prepared to raise interest rates as early as March or April, but the subsequent surge in oil prices and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz made this path uncertain. He stated that as hopes for a swift end to the war fade, the BOJ now faces significant uncertainty regarding how this oil shock will impact global and domestic economic growth, inflation dynamics, and corporate wage setting. These variables are likely to prompt the central bank to warn of two major risks in its upcoming quarterly report: the Middle East conflict leading to a contraction in demand and impacting the economy, and the supply shock exacerbating inflationary pressures.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose 14 basis points to 3.66%.Indonesian Energy Minister: Indonesias fuel oil and liquefied petroleum gas supply is secure.On March 27, Iranian sources reported that Irans Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Illavani, sent a letter to the UN protesting the assassination of the Iranian Parliament Speaker and Foreign Minister. He stated that reports of the two men being temporarily removed from the US and Israels purge lists confirm the existence of assassination threats, adding that "this threat stems from a criminal mentality; their open use of rules of engagement and stupidity is deeply concerning." In the letter, Illavani expressed his hope that UN Security Council members would "immediately take note of the reports published in the media." These reports indicate that a framework for assassinating senior Iranian officials does exist and has been systematically implemented since the start of the conflict.According to the Financial Times, the UAE is working with Bahrain to push for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing a future special task force.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.