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Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.June 18th - Analysts commented on the Federal Reserves interest rate decision: The Fed added a new economic description to its latest statement to depict the current economic situation. The statement noted that productivity growth and capital investment remain strong. This change echoes Fed Chairman Warshs emphasis on the booming investment in artificial intelligence (AI). He and some members of the Trump campaign believe that the AI-related investment boom may lead to reduced inflationary pressures in the future.JPMorgans global head of fixed income, Michelle: The Federal Reserve tells us that we have not yet reached the neutral interest rate.June 18th - The Federal Reserves dot plot shows that 1 person believes there should be 3 rate hikes in 2026 (0 in March), 5 people believe there should be 2 rate hikes in 2026 (0 in March), 3 people believe there should be 1 rate hike in 2026 (0 in March), 8 people believe interest rates should remain unchanged in 2026 (7 in March), 1 person believes there should be 1 rate cut in 2026 (7 in March), 0 people believe there should be 2 rate cuts in 2026 (2 in March), 0 people believe there should be 3 rate cuts in 2026 (2 in March), and 0 people believe there should be 4 rate cuts in 2026 (1 in March). Overall, the number of people supporting rate hikes in 2026 has increased significantly to 9, with one person supporting an aggressive rate hike of 75 basis points, while the number of people supporting rate cuts has decreased significantly to 1.Note: The Federal Reserves statement eliminated the usual practice of publishing the specific voting results of voting members.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-03 上午9.47.05.png

 

In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.