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European Central Bank officials expect to further tighten policy in October.On September 10th, the Trump administration announced it would send $500 to nearly one million Americans, arguing that those who purchased health insurance through the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace were being "overcharged." The White House said Thursday that the checks are expected to mail out in October, just before the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Widespread disapproval of Trumps handling of the cost of living has hampered Republican candidates in key districts nationwide. The White House stated that the payments related to Obamacare were due to a "significant cash surplus" accumulated during the Biden administration, accusing the Biden administration of charging "excessive" user fees to those using the federal marketplace in the form of "higher premiums." Nevertheless, these payments—which the White House describes as costing nearly $500 million—could exacerbate ongoing concerns about inflation and the nations escalating budget deficit and public debt. Trump has long attempted to repeal Obamacares landmark law but has failed. In addition, he has proposed directly subsidizing Americans insurance purchases instead of paying health insurance companies.The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) projects that French HICP inflation will rise to 3.1% in December from 2.7% in August. The INSEE also projects French economic growth of 0.4% in 2026, lower than the 0.7% forecast in June.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that India remains a global economic growth engine and is closely monitoring the impact of high oil prices on India.1. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending September 4, total U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3.254 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 40 billion cubic feet from the previous week, but a decrease of 79 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. This is 148 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 4.8%. 2. Houthi Spokesperson in Yemen: Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain safe and unimpeded. 3. This week, Mysteels Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profitability of independent coking plants nationwide. The national average profit per ton of coke was -17 yuan/ton; the average profit for first-grade coke in Shanxi was 43 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 15 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was 3 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was 64 yuan/ton. 4. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center stated that the strong El Niño this year, which is already disrupting global weather patterns, has a 75% probability of becoming a "historic event," surpassing all records since 1950. The center stated in an update on Thursday that El Niño is likely to continue strengthening until the end of the year. However, the stronger it becomes, the more likely it is to affect global weather in a predictable way. 6. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 272,000 tons of soybeans to China and 206,500 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 7. Data shows that the U.S. August PPI annual rate was 2.4%, higher than the market expectation of 5.3%, while the August core PPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%, releasing mixed signals as Federal Reserve officials debated whether to raise interest rates next week. After the PPI data release, the market fully anticipated a Fed rate hike in October. 8. OPECs monthly report shows that OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision. However, the OPEC organization still believes that the impact on consumption since the outbreak of the war with Iran has been less than that of other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency, which predicts that demand will decline in 2026.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.


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