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Two sources say the International Energy Agency (IEA) will recommend using its strategic petroleum reserves, given the potential disruption to oil supplies due to the situation in Iran. The initial release from the IEAs strategic petroleum reserves will exceed 100 million barrels in the first month.On March 11, Barclays Bank predicted that if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel and economic growth remains stagnant, the earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for European companies is likely to fall to a low single digit, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index will drop to around 550 points. Historically, during periods of stagflation, the energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors have outperformed, while the financial, telecommunications, and consumer sectors have tended to lag. In a report, the bank stated that although the energy intensity of the economy has decreased over time, economic growth still faces risks because Europes dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies is as high as 30%.Italian Prime Minister Meloni: Another priority is to support small and medium-sized enterprises within the new European Competitiveness Fund to promote the balanced flow of EU resources in all our regions.March 11th - Analysts say the situation since the US and Israels attack on Iran indicates that the US remains the preferred market for investors. Even with its flaws, the US remains a global hub of innovation and boasts the worlds deepest and most liquid markets, qualities that become indispensable during economic shocks. After 14 months of turmoil, weve also seen signs of resilience from the Federal Reserve and the Supreme Court, providing additional sources of confidence. It continues to be at the forefront of artificial intelligence, a net oil exporter—a stark contrast to energy-consuming Europe in terms of economic standing—and dominates defense contracting and "defense technology." War and high oil prices are far from purely beneficial, but their negative impact on the US economy is far less than in other parts of the world. This makes it possible that, in critical moments, global investors desire for US assets remains greater than for any other country, and this situation is unlikely to change in the short term.Overnight index swaps indicate that the probability of a Bank of England rate cut this year has fallen to around 20%, compared to 50% on Tuesday.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.