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On January 15th, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice revising the "Management Measures for Key Ecological Protection, Restoration and Governance Funds," clarifying the financial support policies for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts, as well as ecological restoration projects of historically abandoned mines during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The revision aims to standardize the use and management of funds and promote ecosystem protection and restoration. Eligible key ecological protection, restoration and governance projects will have a three-year implementation period. Regarding central government subsidies, support for integrated protection and restoration projects of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and deserts (also known as the "Mountain and Water Project") has been increased, raising the central government subsidy ratio. Projects within a province will receive a maximum subsidy of 75%, not exceeding 2 billion yuan. For the first time, cross-provincial joint applications for projects are explicitly supported, with cross-provincial projects receiving a maximum subsidy of 80%, not exceeding 2.5 billion yuan.On January 15th, Capital Economics analyst Marcel Tiliant pointed out that the upcoming Japanese general election is unlikely to lead to a significant easing of fiscal policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis cabinet has the highest approval rating since the early days of Shinzo Abes administration, and the ruling coalition is expected to almost certainly extend its majority. However, he questions whether this will necessarily lead to a more accommodative fiscal policy. He stated that the massive supplementary budget passed last year to reduce gasoline surcharges and electricity prices has weakened the case for further fiscal expansion. Furthermore, Japan already plans to increase spending in its regular budget for fiscal year 2026. Any additional fiscal easing would require another supplementary budget, which Japan typically only uses in response to severe natural disasters or major economic turmoil.According to foreign media reports on January 15th, data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) shows that as of the week ending January 10th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories were 9.9858 million kiloliters, a decrease of 367,647 kiloliters from the previous weeks 10.3534 million kiloliters. Japans commercial gasoline inventories were 1.6824 million kiloliters, a decrease of 13,325 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.6958 million kiloliters. Japans commercial kerosene inventories were 2.0711 million kiloliters, a decrease of 156,230 kiloliters from the previous weeks 2.2274 million kiloliters. Japans commercial diesel inventories were 1.6332 million kiloliters, a decrease of 11,847 kiloliters from the previous weeks 1.645 million kiloliters.Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that aluminum prices will fall as new Indonesian supplies enter the market in late 2026/early 2027.Goldman Sachs: The significant price increase is largely complete, and copper prices are increasingly prone to corrections.

USD/JPY falls to a two-month low at 131.50 owing to decreasing rates and recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Aug 02, 2022 15:11

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During Tuesday's Asian session, USD/JPY bears hold dominance at the lowest levels in eight weeks as the pair flirts with the 131.50 barrier. Recent weakening in the pair may be linked to negative rates and recent good news on Japan, not to mention inconsistent Fed and China-related rhetoric.

 

US 10-year Treasury rates touched a four-month low of roughly 2.58 percent the day previous, as US economic data heightened concerns of a slump. As traders awaited the announcement of vital US employment numbers for July on Friday, the dollar dropped. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to a new monthly low before bouncing off 105.25 on Monday.

 

In July, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since January 2020, as the activity index fell from 53.0 to 52.8. However, the actual figures outperformed the market projection of 52.0. Additionally, final readings of the US S&P Manufacturing PMI dipped below early predictions of 52.3 to 52.2, compared to 52.7 earlier. In addition, Germany's Retail Sales plummeted 8.8 percent year-over-year in June, compared to a market forecast of -8.0 percent and a prior decrease of -3.6 percent.

 

It should be remembered that the second straight quarterly contraction in US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused a "technical recession" and weighed on the US dollar throughout the preceding week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indirect warnings that the hawks are losing momentum were in the same tone.

 

On a separate page, Reuters claims three sources familiar with the issue as claiming that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was slated to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, despite Chinese vows to never "sit idly by" if she made the trip to the self-governed island claimed by Beijing.

 

At home, speculations of an increase in Japanese salaries and challenges to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) cheap money policies appeared to have sunk the USD/JPY exchange rate, probably due to widespread inflation anxieties. Recent estimates from Nikkei show that the average minimum wage in Japan will climb by a record 3,3 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2023. The newspaper also noted, "A Japanese panel is aiming to enhance the average minimum wage by 31 yen."

 

Wall Street concluded with minor losses, but 10-year Treasury rates struck a four-month low of approximately 2.58 percent. In spite of this, as of press time, the S&P 500 Futures indicate moderate losses of around 4,120.

 

In the near future, the words of Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will impact the course of the USD/JPY.


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