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On February 3rd, Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Views and Research at Samco Securities in India, stated that the market should not have miraculous expectations for a US-India trade agreement. In a report, she pointed out that the US reduction of tariffs on Indian goods to 18% is likely to significantly boost previously subdued market sentiment, as this will allow Indian products to become more competitive in the US domestic market. However, she added that exports to the US account for only a small portion of Indias $4 trillion GDP, and the related boost is expected to be short-lived. Although the Indian benchmark Sensex index rose sharply at the open following this news, Sheth believes that the stock market needs "new long positions to be established" to maintain this upward momentum.Moodys: U.S. tariff cuts on most Indian goods will revive Indian exports to the U.S.February 3 - It was learned on February 2 local time that the U.S. House Rules Committee passed a government spending bill that evening with 8 votes in favor and 4 against, paving the way for ending the partial government shutdown and proceeding to a full House vote. The bill, which had previously passed the Senate, includes five annual appropriations bills and a two-week temporary funding arrangement for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to allow Congress to continue negotiating on immigration enforcement-related disagreements.British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will seek to break the deadlock over the delay in the defense investment plan. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Starmer will convene advisors to advance the blueprint and plans further discussions in the coming weeks.February 3rd - According to the Financial Times, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Ukraine has reached an agreement with its Western partners that Europe and the United States will take coordinated military action to retaliate if Russia violates any future ceasefire agreements. Ukrainian, European, and American officials discussed the proposal multiple times in December and January, outlining a multi-tiered response to any Russian violation of the ceasefire agreement. Representatives from Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington are scheduled to meet again in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and Thursday for talks aimed at ending the conflict. Three sources indicated that under the plan, a Russian violation of the ceasefire would trigger a response within 24 hours, beginning with a diplomatic warning and necessary actions by the Ukrainian military to stop the violation. If hostilities continue thereafter, a second phase of intervention would be launched using so-called "volunteer coalition" forces, which include many EU member states as well as the UK, Norway, Iceland, and Turkey. Officials stated that if the violation escalates into an attack, coordinated military action by Western support forces, including the US military, would be carried out 72 hours after the initial violation.

USD/JPY falls to a two-month low at 131.50 owing to decreasing rates and recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Aug 02, 2022 15:11

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During Tuesday's Asian session, USD/JPY bears hold dominance at the lowest levels in eight weeks as the pair flirts with the 131.50 barrier. Recent weakening in the pair may be linked to negative rates and recent good news on Japan, not to mention inconsistent Fed and China-related rhetoric.

 

US 10-year Treasury rates touched a four-month low of roughly 2.58 percent the day previous, as US economic data heightened concerns of a slump. As traders awaited the announcement of vital US employment numbers for July on Friday, the dollar dropped. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to a new monthly low before bouncing off 105.25 on Monday.

 

In July, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since January 2020, as the activity index fell from 53.0 to 52.8. However, the actual figures outperformed the market projection of 52.0. Additionally, final readings of the US S&P Manufacturing PMI dipped below early predictions of 52.3 to 52.2, compared to 52.7 earlier. In addition, Germany's Retail Sales plummeted 8.8 percent year-over-year in June, compared to a market forecast of -8.0 percent and a prior decrease of -3.6 percent.

 

It should be remembered that the second straight quarterly contraction in US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused a "technical recession" and weighed on the US dollar throughout the preceding week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indirect warnings that the hawks are losing momentum were in the same tone.

 

On a separate page, Reuters claims three sources familiar with the issue as claiming that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was slated to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, despite Chinese vows to never "sit idly by" if she made the trip to the self-governed island claimed by Beijing.

 

At home, speculations of an increase in Japanese salaries and challenges to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) cheap money policies appeared to have sunk the USD/JPY exchange rate, probably due to widespread inflation anxieties. Recent estimates from Nikkei show that the average minimum wage in Japan will climb by a record 3,3 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2023. The newspaper also noted, "A Japanese panel is aiming to enhance the average minimum wage by 31 yen."

 

Wall Street concluded with minor losses, but 10-year Treasury rates struck a four-month low of approximately 2.58 percent. In spite of this, as of press time, the S&P 500 Futures indicate moderate losses of around 4,120.

 

In the near future, the words of Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will impact the course of the USD/JPY.


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