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On January 14th, the Bank of Japan announced it will hold a market operations meeting on February 26th. The meeting will discuss recent market dynamics, central bank operations, liquidity in the Japanese government bond market, and money market conditions. Given the current weakening yen, this meeting announcement has attracted market attention. Analysts at the US financial website InvestingLive pointed out that this meeting is a technical one, not a formal meeting to determine the direction of monetary policy. The market operations meeting will review the Bank of Japans bond-buying framework, including the size, frequency, and maturity structure of Japanese government bond purchases, as well as money market operations such as repurchase agreements and collateral terms. Although such meetings do not directly adjust interest rates or policy guidance, adjustments to the details of actual operations can convey important market signals. For example, adjusting the purchase volume of bonds with specific maturities could affect the yield curve and change market expectations regarding the central banks tolerance for rising long-term interest rates. Historical experience shows that fine-tuning at the operational level often precedes adjustments to overall policy. Given the current pressure of rapid yen depreciation, analysts suggest that if the Japanese authorities decide to intervene in the market, they may not wait for this meeting six weeks later. The technical discussions at this meeting will provide a window into the central bank’s strategies for dealing with market volatility, but should not be over-interpreted as a precursor to a policy shift.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. The Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) previously stated that cross-strait relations in 2026 are highly uncertain, but it will still make every effort to promote dialogue between the two sides, and even between the two organizations (the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the SEF), but only on the premise of no pre-existing political conditions and on the basis of consensus among the people of Taiwan. What is the spokespersons comment? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that if cross-strait relations are uncertain, the fundamental reason is that the DPP authorities stubbornly adhere to their "Taiwan independence" separatist stance and constantly collude with external forces to conduct provocative actions for "independence." The solution is certain: peace, development, exchange, and cooperation are the mainstream public opinion on the island and the common aspiration of compatriots on both sides of the strait. As long as the "1992 Consensus," which embodies the one-China principle, is acknowledged, the two organizations can restart dialogue and communication mechanisms, and cross-strait relations can return to the correct track of peaceful development.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. According to foreign media reports, the United States and Taiwan are close to reaching a trade agreement, with TSMC to invest in and build at least five more semiconductor plants in the US. People and media on the island have questioned the DPP authorities use of investment in exchange for tariffs, suggesting it will lead to the relocation of elite semiconductor production capacity to the US, turning TSMC into "US TSMC." What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the so-called agreement is an economic plunder of Taiwan by the US using high tariffs as a means, a scheme to bleed Taiwans industries dry. This not only exposes the USs self-serving "America First" nature but also reveals its sinister intention to use Taiwan as a pawn. Faced with blatant bullying and plunder by external forces, the DPP authorities not only fail to resist but also actively cater to them, using the islands core technological advantages as a pledge of allegiance to external forces. They "kneel before the negotiations even begin" in tariff negotiations, and "cheek on one cheek and offer another" in the face of economic blackmail. The more they negotiate, the more they sell out, ultimately destroying Taiwans economic development prospects and harming the long-term interests of the Taiwanese people.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the "KMT-CPC Forum" would be held in Beijing, and that high-ranking KMT officials would travel to the mainland. Could this be confirmed? The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) questioned whether the KMT had secured its place at the "KMT-CPC Forum" by repeatedly blocking arms purchases and called on the KMT not to cooperate with mainland "united front" propaganda. What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that our position is clear: we are willing to work with all political parties, groups, and people from all walks of life in Taiwan, including the KMT, to strengthen exchanges and maintain positive interactions on the common political basis of adhering to the "1992 Consensus" and opposing "Taiwan independence," to jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and benefit compatriots on both sides of the strait. If there is any information in this regard, we will release it in a timely manner.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to achieve its 2% inflation target in a stable manner.

USD/JPY falls to a two-month low at 131.50 owing to decreasing rates and recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Aug 02, 2022 15:11

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During Tuesday's Asian session, USD/JPY bears hold dominance at the lowest levels in eight weeks as the pair flirts with the 131.50 barrier. Recent weakening in the pair may be linked to negative rates and recent good news on Japan, not to mention inconsistent Fed and China-related rhetoric.

 

US 10-year Treasury rates touched a four-month low of roughly 2.58 percent the day previous, as US economic data heightened concerns of a slump. As traders awaited the announcement of vital US employment numbers for July on Friday, the dollar dropped. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to a new monthly low before bouncing off 105.25 on Monday.

 

In July, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since January 2020, as the activity index fell from 53.0 to 52.8. However, the actual figures outperformed the market projection of 52.0. Additionally, final readings of the US S&P Manufacturing PMI dipped below early predictions of 52.3 to 52.2, compared to 52.7 earlier. In addition, Germany's Retail Sales plummeted 8.8 percent year-over-year in June, compared to a market forecast of -8.0 percent and a prior decrease of -3.6 percent.

 

It should be remembered that the second straight quarterly contraction in US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused a "technical recession" and weighed on the US dollar throughout the preceding week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indirect warnings that the hawks are losing momentum were in the same tone.

 

On a separate page, Reuters claims three sources familiar with the issue as claiming that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was slated to visit Taiwan on Tuesday, despite Chinese vows to never "sit idly by" if she made the trip to the self-governed island claimed by Beijing.

 

At home, speculations of an increase in Japanese salaries and challenges to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) cheap money policies appeared to have sunk the USD/JPY exchange rate, probably due to widespread inflation anxieties. Recent estimates from Nikkei show that the average minimum wage in Japan will climb by a record 3,3 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2023. The newspaper also noted, "A Japanese panel is aiming to enhance the average minimum wage by 31 yen."

 

Wall Street concluded with minor losses, but 10-year Treasury rates struck a four-month low of approximately 2.58 percent. In spite of this, as of press time, the S&P 500 Futures indicate moderate losses of around 4,120.

 

In the near future, the words of Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will impact the course of the USD/JPY.