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May 20th - According to the Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Goldman Sachs is expected to be the lead underwriter for SpaceXs initial public offering (IPO). Morgan Stanley is also one of the lead underwriters for the IPO, but Goldman Sachs is expected to be listed first on the prospectus, which could be released as early as Wednesday. This arrangement is surprising given Musks close relationship with Morgan Stanley. Other banks leading the deal include Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase.May 20 (AP) -- The U.S. Senate on Tuesday advanced a bill aimed at forcing President Trump to withdraw troops from the war with Iran. Since Trump ordered the attack on Iran in late February, Democrats have repeatedly pushed for a war powers resolution, demanding that Trump either obtain congressional approval to continue the war or withdraw troops. Republicans had previously been able to gather enough votes to reject these proposals, but Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy (whom Trump supported in the recent primaries) cast the crucial vote, allowing the bill to move forward.On May 20th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jean-Henri Kocher stated that a June interest rate hike is inevitable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, warning that a protracted conflict would significantly push up Eurozone inflation. In a media interview, the Austrian central bank governor stated that the ECBs mandate is clear: if policymakers conclude that the 2% inflation target is unattainable, then interest rates must be raised. No one can predict full-year inflation, as the outcome depends entirely on how long the conflict lasts and how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. Despite weak data, Kocher stated that the Austrian economy performed relatively robustly in the first quarter, and that 0.5% growth for the year is still achievable if the Iranian conflict does not prove protracted. Kocher cautiously noted that with three weeks until the June 11th meeting, the situation could still change before any decisions are made.① Iran 1. Iranian lawmaker: Iran has never initiated a war, nor has it ever left the negotiating table. 2. Iranian military spokesperson: If attacked again, it will "open a new front." 3. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran is prepared to respond to any military aggression. The US is whitewashing "threats" as "peace opportunities." 4. Explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, Iran. Iranian officials: The explosions were caused by the disposal of unexploded ordnance. 5. Iranian Ministry of Justice: Assets of 52 individuals linked to hostile networks have been seized, and the proceeds will be used for the people. ② United States 1. The US Treasury Department issued a new round of sanctions against Iran. 2. US officials: Many of Irans ballistic missiles are deployed in underground caves and other facilities carved into granite mountains, making them difficult for US attack aircraft to destroy. 3. US officials: The White House National Security Council meeting on Tuesday was postponed after Trump delayed the strike on Iran. 4. Trump: We may have to strike Iran again, its not certain yet. I agree to give Iran another 2-3 days, maybe until Friday or Saturday, maybe early next week, time is limited. ③ Israel 1. Israel Defense Forces: In the past 24 hours, more than 25 Hezbollah infrastructure targets were struck in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. 2. Israeli senior officials assess that the US still favors resuming military action against Iran. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Qatari Foreign Ministry: Any change to the status quo on the issue of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable. 2. G7 Finance Ministers Statement: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is imperative. Continued commitment to maintaining energy market stability. 3. US Central Command: Has forced 89 merchant ships to change course. 4. NATO sets a deadline: If the Strait of Hormuz is not open by early July, it plans to deploy troops to escort ships. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister releases Irans draft proposal for an agreement with the US, including the withdrawal of US troops from surrounding areas. 2. Mediators believe that the US-Iran negotiations have made almost no progress, and Iran insists on its core demands. 3. US Vice President Vance: The US-Iran negotiations have made great progress, but the US has also prepared a "Plan B". ⑥ Other Circumstances: 1. The Trump administration plans to reduce NATOs crisis response force, demanding that Europe take over security leadership. 2. British Airways suspends flights to Israel until August 1st. 3. Hamas: We reject the Peace Commission report, which contains erroneous statements exonerating the occupying government. 4. Lebanese official sources indicate that a draft of a US-mediated declaration of intent with Israel is under review, but has not yet been finalized. 5. UAE Ministry of Defense: Six drones launched from Iraq were detected and dealt with in the past 48 hours. All targets were successfully intercepted, with no casualties and no impact on the security of critical facilities. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi: (Regarding the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE) Radiation levels are normal and external power has been restored, but the situation is seriously worrying.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

 截屏2022-08-03 上午9.47.05.png

 

In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.