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On May 12th, ING strategists stated in a report that the rise in UK 2-year gilt yields was primarily due to political tensions and high oil prices, leading investors to increasingly doubt the Bank of Englands ability to cut interest rates in the coming years. They noted that this shift is also related to market expectations: if Starmer steps down, fiscal spending could expand and government debt could rise under a new prime minister, further pushing up interest rate expectations. Prime Minister Starmer is currently facing significant pressure to resign due to the Labour Partys poor performance in last weeks local elections. The UK money market is already pricing in two to three interest rate hikes in 2026 due to persistently high inflation.On May 12th, Anta Sports (02020.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange an adjustment to the conversion price of its €1.5 billion zero-coupon guaranteed convertible bonds maturing in 2029. In accordance with the terms and conditions of the bonds and due to the approval of a dividend by shareholders at the companys Annual General Meeting to be held on May 12, 2026, the conversion price will be adjusted from HK$101.13 to HK$99.80. The adjustment will take effect on May 19, 2026. Except for the adjustment, all other terms and conditions of the bonds remain unchanged.Futures News, May 12th: 1. Today, the spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5406 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton; Guangxi Sugar Groups quoted price range was 5400-5490 yuan/ton, up 20-30 yuan/ton; Yunnan Sugar Groups quoted price was 5210-5270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream quoted price range of sugar mills was 5800-5950 yuan/ton, with some up 20-60 yuan/ton. Both spot and futures prices strengthened, driven by the "buy high, sell low" mentality, leading to continued increased trading activity. 2. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement appeared somewhat fragile, with crude oil prices rising nearly 5% intraday, subsequently driving up international sugar prices. ICE raw sugar futures finally closed at 14.95 cents/lb, up 0.26 cents/lb. Current energy prices remain high, and with international sugar prices climbing again to around 15 cents/lb, the ethanol-to-sugar premium has somewhat declined. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the latest sugar production ratio data for south-central Brazil will be adjusted. 3. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract SR2609 continued its range-bound consolidation in overnight trading. During the day, driven by the recovery in the commodity market, prices fluctuated upwards, breaking through the 5500 yuan/ton mark, before turning to range-bound trading, closing at 5504 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. Open interest increased by 8,700 lots during the day. The battle between bulls and bears continues, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices are likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term.Market news: The Securities and Exchange Commission of India has proposed the introduction of physically settled agricultural commodity derivatives (contracts).On May 12, local time, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it intercepted a drone launched from eastern Israel that afternoon. The interception did not trigger air raid sirens within Israel. According to Israeli sources, the drone was intercepted near the southern city of Eilat, marking the first drone attack on Eilat since the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect.

As risk aversion grows as measured by the DXY and as attention turns to the US NFP, USD/CHF goes closer to 0.9600

Alina Haynes

Aug 03, 2022 14:51

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In reaction to the dismal market environment, the US dollar index (DXY) has gained, and the USD/CHF pair is swiftly approaching the key level of 0.9600. After defending Monday's low around 0.9480, the pair had a greater reverse on Tuesday, as the risk-aversion theme strengthened the attraction of the DXY.

 

Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to support Taiwan's local government despite China's wishes, tensions between the US and China have increased. In reaction to the death threats made against Pelosi during her private travel to Taiwan, the US is anticipated to adopt sanctions against China, which encouraged the gloomy market sentiment.

 

In the meanwhile, the DXY has achieved a three-day high of 106.55, although the gain may wane ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. According to market expectations, the U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs to the labor force in July.

 

During a brief period, a number of significant IT companies in the United States abandoned the hiring process, resulting in payroll statistics that multiplied. If the same thing occurs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be compelled to speak less about policy rates.

 

On the Swiss franc front, investors anticipate the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. An early estimate of the annual inflation rate places it at 3.5%, little higher than the prior estimate of 3.4%. As a result, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be compelled to boost interest rates.