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On January 30th, Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, stated that if Kevin Warsh is indeed nominated as the Federal Reserve Chair, we may ultimately end up with a Fed that is somewhat hawkish. Warsh has historically been a hawk, although he has recently been talking about interest rate cuts. If he enters the Fed advocating for significant rate cuts, he may not have much credibility in convincing others that further rate cuts are needed. We might even end up with a severely divided committee that doesnt cut rates at all. In the short term, a potentially hawkish Fed could increase market volatility.On January 30th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,861,277 lots, an increase of 740,717 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,072,923 lots, an increase of 13,889 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 380,646 lots, an increase of 156,990 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 259,939 lots, a decrease of 6,052 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 610,932 lots, a decrease of 80,707 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,639,013 lots, an increase of 17,069 lots from the previous trading day.Frances GDP growth rate is projected to be 0.9% in 2025.Frances preliminary fourth-quarter GDP annualized rate was 1.1%, below the expected 1.20% and the previous value of 0.90%.French household consumption expenditure fell 1% year-on-year in December, compared with an expected decline of 0.60% and a previous reading of 0.00%.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.