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January 16th - Pansen Macro analyst Claus Vistesen stated that January inflation data from Germany and the Eurozone may increase market bets on a European Central Bank rate cut. Data released Friday showed that Germanys annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December from 2.3% in November, as energy prices declined due to a one-off tariff reduction, laying the foundation for continued inflation declines into 2026. Core inflation is also expected to fall, although food and alcohol inflation are expected to rebound due to last years benchmark effect. Pansen Macro expects Germanys January inflation rate to fall to 1.5%.The U.S. military is deploying additional defensive and offensive capabilities to the Middle East in response to a potential strike against Iran by President Trump.On January 16th, Morgan Stanley expressed optimism about the share price of Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML. Analysts at the bank stated that in the most optimistic scenario, as chipmakers increase spending to meet soaring demand from artificial intelligence, the stock could rise by 70%, potentially reaching €2,000. Morgan Stanleys bullish outlook on ASML is further fueled by TSMCs earnings report demonstrating that the AI spending boom has not slowed. ASMLs share price has already risen 25% year-to-date by 2026, and its market capitalization surpassed $500 billion this week, making it the third European company to reach this milestone.January 16th - According to AXIOS, citing an Israeli source and another informed source, Mossad Director General Barnea arrived in the United States on Friday morning for talks on the situation in Iran. Barneas trip is part of consultations between the US and Israel regarding the Iranian protests and potential US military action. It is understood that Barnea is expected to meet with US Middle East envoy Witkov in Miami. It is unclear whether Barnea will travel to Mar-a-Lago to meet with US President Trump over the weekend. US officials have stated that military action remains an option if Iran resumes its killings of protesters. Israeli officials believe that although action may be delayed, the possibility of a US military strike in the coming days remains. According to US sources, the US military is deploying more defensive and offensive capabilities to the region to facilitate rapid action should Trump order a strike.The head of Israels intelligence agency Mossad is visiting the United States to hold talks on the Iranian issue and is expected to meet with U.S. special envoy Witkov.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.

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