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National Australia Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australias cash rate is expected to peak at around 4.6%.Futures News, May 5th - According to foreign media reports, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher on Monday, with the benchmark contract rising 1.62%, reaching a seven-week high, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East that pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, and strong domestic soybean crushing demand in the United States. International crude oil futures surged about 6% on Monday due to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. As soybean oil is an important feedstock for biofuels, the rise in crude oil prices drove soybean oil contracts to new highs, boosting soybean futures prices. Analysts pointed out that the rise in the energy market continues to dominate soybean price movements, as it helps boost the demand outlook for soybeans as a renewable fuel feedstock. Domestic soybean crushing data in the United States also provided fundamental support. US soybean crushing volume in March was 227.4 million bushels, higher than 206.8 million bushels in the same period last year. Cumulative crushing volume for the 2025/26 marketing year so far has reached 1.65 billion bushels, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year.The Indonesian rupiah fell further in early trading, hitting a record low of 17,390 against the US dollar.May 5th - Markets widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates again after its May 5th meeting. However, ANZ analysts believe that after the May rate hike, the RBA will shift to a more neutral stance, providing more room to wait and observe the full impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation. The wording in the banks post-meeting statement will be more skewed, opening the door to extending the pause in rate hikes. Even if the RBA raises rates as expected in May, it still believes the cash rate will remain at 4.35% (future). Although RBA Governor Bullock did not explicitly hint at further rate hikes, she maintained a generally hawkish tone regarding keeping policy restrained. Recent signs of continued tightness in the Australian labor market also provide the RBA with more room to raise rates.May 5th - According to a report by the Iranian Students News Agency on May 4th, in response to US President Trumps plan to "guide" ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to leave, Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliaments National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that if Iran wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it must either accept defeat and reach an agreement recognizing Irans dominance over the strait, or return to the battlefield and bear further consequences.

0.8450 is being reached by EUR/GBP as the prospect of a UK recession looms

Daniel Rogers

Aug 05, 2022 14:46

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Following a huge upward rise from 0.8360 on Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair has subsequently turned sideways around 0.8430 in the Tokyo session. After the Bank of England (BOE) hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, the cross displayed a significant upward rise (bps) (bps). The BOE lifted interest rates by 50 basis points in succession, bringing them to 1.75 percent.

 

The investing community is aware that UK household earnings have been unsteady during the preceding few months. In addition, the economy's inflation rate is fast expanding. The inflation rate was 9.4 percent prior. The recent statement by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey that price increases might exceed 13 percent has sent shockwaves across the market.

 

The runaway inflation is now escalating, leaving the BOE with very little flexibility to tighten its monetary policy. The BOE is in poor shape as a result of the dismal economic data and the continuing political upheaval following the departure of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. A recession in the UK economy is extremely probable in the case that the inflation rate is close to 13 percent.

 

German manufacturing order numbers for the Eurozone have decreased by 0.4 percent against an anticipated 0.8 percent decline and a prior monthly contraction of 0.2 percent. Falling orders from factories indicate sluggish demand in Germany as a whole. It is vital to remember that Germany is a key element of the European Union (EU), and that economic data from Germany has a huge effect on people who favor the common currency.