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April 17th - According to a Bloomberg survey conducted from April 9th to 15th, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in June due to rising inflation caused by the Iran conflict. However, this 0.25 percentage point hike is likely to be the only such measure, as the conflict is not expected to cause a long-term price shock. The survey shows that the Eurozones inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.8% this year—higher than the previously predicted 2%. It is then projected to fall back to 2.1% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027—in line with the ECBs target. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that ECB officials currently favor keeping interest rates unchanged at their next meeting at the end of April. Some, including the president of the German central bank, believe that the possibility of action at that time cannot be ruled out.Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, whereas its previous forecast was for a rate cut in September.Trade sources say Indian banks have suspended imports of gold and silver from overseas suppliers. Due to delays caused by government orders, Indian banks are still awaiting customs clearance for imported gold and silver. Approximately 5 tons of gold and 8 tons of silver are stranded due to lack of customs clearance.The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that radar detected a Russian drone violating the countrys airspace.The oil crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq War has led Asian countries to scramble for alternatives. With biofuels now cheaper than fossil fuels for the first time, Asian fuel suppliers are racing to buy them. According to Argus Media, benchmark biodiesel prices in Europe began falling below conventional diesel prices in late March, while Asian palm oil futures prices also fell below diesel prices in early April.

0.8450 is being reached by EUR/GBP as the prospect of a UK recession looms

Daniel Rogers

Aug 05, 2022 14:46

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Following a huge upward rise from 0.8360 on Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair has subsequently turned sideways around 0.8430 in the Tokyo session. After the Bank of England (BOE) hiked interest rates by 50 basis points, the cross displayed a significant upward rise (bps) (bps). The BOE lifted interest rates by 50 basis points in succession, bringing them to 1.75 percent.

 

The investing community is aware that UK household earnings have been unsteady during the preceding few months. In addition, the economy's inflation rate is fast expanding. The inflation rate was 9.4 percent prior. The recent statement by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey that price increases might exceed 13 percent has sent shockwaves across the market.

 

The runaway inflation is now escalating, leaving the BOE with very little flexibility to tighten its monetary policy. The BOE is in poor shape as a result of the dismal economic data and the continuing political upheaval following the departure of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. A recession in the UK economy is extremely probable in the case that the inflation rate is close to 13 percent.

 

German manufacturing order numbers for the Eurozone have decreased by 0.4 percent against an anticipated 0.8 percent decline and a prior monthly contraction of 0.2 percent. Falling orders from factories indicate sluggish demand in Germany as a whole. It is vital to remember that Germany is a key element of the European Union (EU), and that economic data from Germany has a huge effect on people who favor the common currency.


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