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July 11th - Industry insiders stated that historically, during periods of high demand in the memory chip industry, manufacturers tend to simultaneously expand production capacity, leading to a concentrated release of new capacity, a price crash, and industry-wide losses. Subsequently, manufacturers collectively reduce capital expenditures, and when demand recovers, another boom occurs – this cycle constitutes the industrys unique cyclical pattern. Since reaching its peak in late June, US memory chip stocks have experienced a collective correction due to concerns about overcapacity, triggered by news such as Metas sale of computing power. Data shows that industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital have all seen their stock prices fall by more than 20% in the past few weeks. Analysts point out that the underlying logic supporting current demand for memory chips is facing a reassessment, with the core variable being whether the technological gap between various AI large-scale models will continue to narrow. Analysts also pointed out that the memory chip industry is undergoing a profound change in its business model: in the past, memory was more like a commodity, with prices fluctuating with the market, and contracts were mostly on a quarterly or annual basis; now, cloud vendors and AI data centers are increasingly signing long-term supply agreements with original equipment manufacturers for three to five years, with price ranges, minimum purchase quantities, and customer deposits, in order to ensure critical supply.July 11th - Typhoon Bavi, the ninth typhoon of the year, is expected to impact eastern Hubei, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from July 11th to 13th. According to the Yangtze River Maritime Safety Administration, to ensure typhoon safety, following the requirements of "early assessment, early warning, early deployment, early inspection, and early evacuation," the administration raised the typhoon emergency response level for the Anhui-Sichuan section of the Yangtze River main channel to Level II at 18:00 on July 11th.July 11 – The European Union is developing a “solidarity tool” to support businesses in shifting supplies of critical goods and to cushion the impact of trade conflicts. According to sources, this tool requires funding, and member states are currently negotiating the EU’s next multi-year budget. The exact amount needed is unclear, but given the size of the industries and trade involved, the funding requirements are likely substantial. Some member states are currently pushing for spending cuts. The tool was developed by the EU’s executive body. Sources indicate that national envoys have been briefed on the tool this week.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a magnitude 3.3 earthquake occurred at 19:14 on July 11 in Eryuan County, Dali Prefecture, Yunnan Province (26.12 degrees north latitude, 99.86 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 11 kilometers.Russian Deputy Prime Minister: We will begin importing petroleum products this month.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.