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On April 27th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article stating that the price shock triggered by the Middle East wars has pushed market expectations towards an environment where interest rates remain at higher levels for an extended period, affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan, although the differences have recently narrowed, its policy framework remains self-contained. He pointed out that the current situation is not merely a simple price shock, but also accompanied by a negative demand shock from the "second-round effect," and in addition to these direct economic impacts, there is a potential risk of contagion to financial instability. He added, "All of this underscores the uncertainty of the outlook: central banks will face a series of difficult trade-offs, and I think these decisions likely (or should) boil down to a sobering question: Of all the mistakes we can make, which is the least irreversible? For central banks with a single mandate, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, this question is relatively easier to answer; but for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate, the situation is much more complex."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian parliamentary committee has passed a proposal to establish a crisis management ministry.On April 27th, the National Energy Administration held its quarterly press conference. According to the press conference, 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green power connections, and 99 direct green power connection projects nationwide have been approved, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 34.05 million kilowatts of new energy. Recently, based on the single-user direct green power connection policy, a multi-user direct green power connection policy has been formulated, allowing new energy sources to directly supply green electricity to multiple users through dedicated lines. This will promote the accelerated clean energy substitution in industrial parks and zero-carbon parks, and facilitate the wider consumption of new energy. The relevant policies will be released soon.On April 27, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Kassym-Jomart Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 26th that the United States has exaggerated its bargaining chips in the energy game. Ghalibaf stated that the US has used numerous tactics, and its related strategies are in a predicament. The summer travel peak will exacerbate the pressure on the US, while Iran still holds unused "key trump cards."On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation selected seven provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong—to conduct a pilot program allowing registration authorities to apply to the Peoples Courts for compulsory liquidation. The pilot programs main tasks include three aspects: First, establishing a working mechanism. Market regulation departments in the pilot areas will proactively connect with the Peoples Courts, conduct in-depth research, and determine the timetable, roadmap, and safeguard measures for the pilot program in their respective regions. Second, improving the standardization of the liquidation system. This involves establishing a corporate screening mechanism to clarify the scope of application, streamlining the various stages and material requirements for administrative and judicial coordination, supporting the liquidation team in fulfilling its duties, and encouraging the establishment of dedicated windows for efficient handling of matters such as file inquiries and deregistration. Third, strengthening business data sharing. This involves promoting the establishment of data interfaces with the Peoples Courts to achieve information sharing, and improving the functions of the "one-stop" online service platform for deregistration, providing "fully online" services for compulsory liquidation and deregistration of bankrupt enterprises.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.