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On August 21st, Bank of America Securities issued a report stating that Pop Marts (09992.HK) half-year results fell short of expectations. The bank lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecasts for 2026/2027 by 22%/24%, and its target price by 4% from HK$160 to HK$153. Bank of America forecasts adjusted net profit of RMB10.65 billion for fiscal year 2026, implying a 36% year-on-year decline in the second half. The current price represents a forward P/E ratio of approximately 13 times for 2026, close to historical lows, and the compound annual growth rate of adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2028 is only in the low single digits, making the valuation seem reasonable. Therefore, the bank maintains a "neutral" rating and believes that the downside potential for the share price is limited. Key supporting factors include: 1) a share buyback plan of RMB2 billion to RMB5 billion over the next six months (equivalent to 1.1% to 2.8% of market capitalization); 2) a reduced impact of exchange rate losses in the second half of the year (exchange rate losses in the first half were approximately RMB700 million); and 3) the increase in shareholding by prominent investor Duan Yongping to 7.7%, which may provide support for market sentiment. Overall, the bank believes that the risk-reward ratio is roughly balanced between the current growth pains and the long-term prospects.The Indonesian rupiah rose to 17,690 against the US dollar, its highest level since mid-June.August 21st - According to the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Department, a tropical depression in the South China Sea is expected to linger over the northern Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait for an extended period over the next three days, gradually intensifying into a tropical storm. From August 22nd to 24th, affected by this storm, the northwestern half of Hainan Island will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas experiencing extremely heavy rain, while other areas will see moderate to heavy rain, with localized areas experiencing torrential rain. From the 22nd to the 24th, most sea areas of Hainan Province will experience gusts of 8-9 on the Beaufort scale, with gusts reaching 9-10 in the northern Beibu Gulf. Prolonged closures of shipping in the Qiongzhou Strait are possible.On August 21st, the A50 index surged in early trading on Friday, and major A-share indices also rebounded collectively, with AI-related sectors such as CPO and liquid cooling showing significant strength. Meanwhile, the South Korean stock index reversed its losses and rose sharply. The Japanese stock market also saw its losses narrow significantly. Three major positive factors emerged from overseas markets. First, US Treasury yields, which had been a concern for the market, initially fell across the board after the Asian markets opened, and the change in expectations in the US Treasury market opened Pandoras box for a weak dollar, which is beneficial for equity valuations. Second, the Korea Exchange activated the Sidecar mechanism, suspending programmatic selling on KOSDAQ. Finally, the storage industry also received a major boost. Micron Technology stated that artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the cyclical nature of the storage industry, which has historically been trapped in cycles of boom and bust.On August 21, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch filed for bankruptcy liquidation against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., citing the companys inability to repay its debts and insufficient assets to cover all liabilities. The Guangzhou Intermediate Peoples Court of Guangdong Province, after review, determined that the application met the requirements of Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the "Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the Peoples Republic of China" and ruled on August 21, 2026, to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application filed by Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.

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