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February 12th - Following Wednesdays better-than-expected US non-farm payroll report, the US dollar only briefly rose before giving back its gains. Danske Bank analyst Mohammed Al-Sarraf pointed out that the dollars failure to sustain its rally reflects the continued strong tendency to "sell on rallies" in the market. "We dont think this report is enough to be a turning point for the dollars macroeconomic outlook," Al-Sarraf said. The significant downward revision to the annual baseline non-farm payroll data still points to a structural slowdown in job growth—an average of only 15,000 new jobs per month in 2025, a significant decline from 122,000 in 2024. Furthermore, President Trumps call for further interest rate cuts, citing strong data, exacerbated market concerns about the Federal Reserves independence.February 12th - Following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyys statement that Russia would reject a US-brokered ceasefire proposal for energy infrastructure, Ukraine was again subjected to large-scale Russian airstrikes. Ukrainian air defense forces stated that Russian forces launched intensive nighttime strikes on Thursday against major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Dnipropetrov, causing damage to some residential buildings; most of the 24 ballistic missiles and 219 drones that attacked were intercepted. Zelenskyy posted on the X platform that the attack resulted in two deaths. The Ukrainian private energy company DTEK posted that the airstrikes severely damaged an unnamed power facility in the Odessa region, and repairs will take a long time.February 12th - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Bryndon said there is "reason to expect" a further 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of April. Speaking at a "Business Live" event in Manchester, the Deputy Governor for Financial Stability said that the brakes on monetary policy should be loosened now to provide more support to the economy by lowering borrowing costs. She stated that she is more concerned about the downside risks of slow growth and rising unemployment. "I am not confident that economic activity will see the recovery we expect. Therefore, I think it is appropriate for us to loosen the monetary brake a little more and provide a little more support to the economy," she said. "If the economy continues to develop as we expect, and no shocks occur – to be clear, these are two big ifs... I think there is reason to expect a rate cut in the next one or two meetings."Sources say police also searched the homes of seven Amazon (AMZN.O) managers in Italy and the KPMG office in Milan.Sources say tax police raided Amazons (AMZN.O) Italian headquarters as part of a new investigation into alleged tax fraud.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.