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On June 30th, former Bank of Japan executive director Kenzo Yamamoto stated, "The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it needs to act quickly." When asked whether the central bank would raise interest rates again in December, as most economists surveyed predicted, Yamamoto said, "Given the current level of monetary easing, the next rate hike is likely to occur before then." Yamamoto pointed out that the banks underlying inflation gauge (excluding special factors such as fresh food and government subsidies) has averaged around 3% over the past four years, well above the central banks 2% target. However, Japans key inflation gauge—the core consumer price index excluding only fresh food—remained at 1.4% in May, mainly due to measures introduced by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to alleviate cost-of-living pressures. The Bank of Japan recently stated that price trends remain slightly below 2%. "I would be concerned if the Bank of Japan claimed that its underlying inflation gauge failed to reflect price trends," Yamamoto said. "The Bank of Japan needs to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation."Samsung Electronics is currently up 2%, and SK Hynix is up 1%.June 30th - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK food inflation has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months, the latest sign of easing cost pressures that could prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates. Data released on Tuesday showed that UK food prices rose 2.4% in early June, down from a 2.7% increase the previous month, mainly due to lower inflation for fresh food. Overall retail price increases remained at 1.2%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, "Thanks to a bumper harvest and intense market competition, retailers have helped keep prices for summer treats like strawberries and ice cream low." Private sector surveys and official data showed that overall inflation in the UK economy had been more stable than previously expected before the initial peace agreement between the US and Iran led to a drop in oil prices. Therefore, the market no longer fully expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, whereas previously it had anticipated three to four hikes of 25 basis points each.Japans inventory levels fell 0.6% month-on-month in May, compared with a previous decline of 0.3%.Japans industrial production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May, compared with a forecast of 1.2% and a previous reading of 2.00%.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.