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April 19th - The US-Iran conflict caused a temporary setback in gold prices, but looking at the long term, golds luster remains undiminished. At the "2026 Market Outlook Forum" recently hosted by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), economist Hong Hao stated that the recent decline in gold prices was not due to deteriorating fundamentals, but rather because it has "completed its historical mission for a certain period." Hong Hao analyzed that the lower the credit rating and the higher the yield of US Treasury bonds, the higher the gold price will be one year later. Holding 10-year US Treasury bonds for one year could result in a loss of nearly 10%, which is a very unfavorable trade; in contrast, fundamental logic, narrative logic, and data models all point to a higher gold price, with a doubling in the future being a certainty. Despite the significant short-term correction in gold prices, he remains optimistic about its long-term prospects.Bangladeshs Ministry of Energy announced Saturday evening that it has raised retail fuel prices by 10% to 15% due to soaring global crude oil prices and supply shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The official notice indicates that under the new prices, gasoline will increase from 116 taka per liter to 135 taka (approximately US$1.10), diesel will remain at 115 taka per liter, and kerosene will cost 130 taka per liter. Bangladesh heavily relies on imported fuel, and the rising fuel costs are putting pressure on the South Asian nations already strained foreign exchange reserves.April 19th - According to analysis firm Kpler, since the outbreak of the war with Iran in late February, the global market has lost more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, making it the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. During the conflict, the average price of crude oil was around $100 per barrel. Analysts and Reuters calculations indicate that the lost production is worth over $50 billion, and this loss could last for months or even years.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: We exchanged information with the United States, but the United States insisted on making excessive demands.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: As part of the negotiations, new instructions will be issued regarding the Strait of Hormuz issue.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.