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On February 25th, former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that given the already strong economic situation, it is necessary to continue raising interest rates and tightening fiscal policy. He warned that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis massive spending plan could trigger overheated inflation. Kuroda is known for his aggressive monetary stimulus policy launched in 2013, a key component of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abes "Abenomics" reflation strategy. He stated that with robust economic growth and steady wage increases, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates approximately twice a year in 2026 and 2027. "Today, Japan faces inflation and a depreciating yen. Japan needs to shift to tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The Bank of Japan must gradually raise interest rates to a neutral level. Fiscal policy must also be tightened. I have doubts about whether increasing spending and tax cuts are appropriate." Kuroda warned that expansionary fiscal policy could backfire, exacerbating inflationary pressures and pushing up bond yields.Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: Japans economy is in good shape, and it needs to tighten fiscal and monetary policies.Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates twice a year in 2026 and 2027, bringing the rate up to around 1.5% to 1.75%.Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: The yen is "somewhat too weak" at around 157 against the dollar recently.Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis spending and tax cut plans could exacerbate inflation and push up bond yields.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.