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On July 29th, Paul Christopher, Global Head of Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated that he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The easing of inflation in June provides policymakers with an opportunity to extend the pause in rate hikes and await further data. Luis Alvarado, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy at the Institute, pointed out that Warsh has made it clear that "bringing inflation back to 2% remains the Feds top priority, and policymakers have virtually zero tolerance for a rebound in price pressures. We believe he genuinely believes the Fed can achieve this goal." Alvarado stated that the biggest change Warsh might bring is in the communication style, especially forward guidance. Investors should expect increased policy flexibility and potentially greater market volatility between meetings. For Warsh, the ability to act and react flexibly to changing circumstances remains crucial.On July 29, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with 18 other departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly released the "National 15th Five-Year Plan for Addressing Climate Change" today (July 29). The plan systematically outlines the goals and tasks for addressing climate change during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, providing clear guidance for climate change work over the next five years. According to the plan, by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by 17% compared to 2025; carbon dioxide emissions per unit of product in industries covered by the national carbon emission trading market will decrease by about 3% compared to 2025; a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is trustworthy, transparent, methodologically unified, widely participated, and aligned with international standards will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be basically established; monitoring and control of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases will be strengthened; a carbon dioxide equivalent emission reduction capacity of 30 million tons will be formed; the climate change adaptation work system will be further improved; phased progress will be made in the construction of a climate-resilient society; and awareness and capacity for addressing climate change will be continuously enhanced. my countrys influence, guidance, shaping power, and moral appeal in global climate governance will be significantly enhanced.July 29 - Generali Investments senior economist, Paul Zangieli, is closely watching the Federal Reserves communications. He expects the FOMC to "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone, as persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and internal divisions within the FOMC leave the door open for further policy tightening later this year."July 29th - James Lagan, co-chief investment officer and head of investment management and research at investment bank DA Davidson, stated that since the Feds last meeting, inflation data has been moderate and job growth has been modest, but the escalation of the US-Iran military conflict in July disrupted these positive trends. This means that the overall inflation progress made in June may be reversed, and the Fed must assess whether the core inflation trend is more sustainable. If the Fed determines that higher inflation expectations are forming, they should raise interest rates in July, rather than waiting until September. Especially considering the midterm elections later this year, taking action at that time could invite political criticism.July 29 – South Koreas population has grown for the third consecutive year, with an increase in foreign residents offsetting a continued decline in domestic residents, highlighting the countrys growing reliance on overseas workers in addressing rapid aging and a shrinking workforce. Statistics Korea said on Tuesday that the national population will reach 51.8 million in 2025, an increase of 12,000 from the previous year. The number of Korean citizens has declined for the fifth consecutive year to 49.7 million, while the number of foreign residents has risen to a record high of 2.1 million, accounting for 4.1% of the total population. South Korea, along with Japan, Italy, and a few other countries, has officially joined the ranks of "super-aged societies," with the population aged 65 and over accounting for 20.7% of the total population. The proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 has fallen below 70% for the first time. According to Statistics Korea, the working-age population decreased by 393,000 from the previous year. The latest data shows that foreign residents are playing an increasingly important role in South Koreas workforce. Nearly 89.3% of foreign residents are of working age, compared to 68.4% of the Korean citizen population. The foreign resident population has been increasing year by year since 2022, while the South Korean population has been declining year by year since 2021.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.