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Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce and its silver price forecast to $70 per ounce.Citigroup has lowered its oil price forecast to its previous bearish scenario, with updated quarterly oil price forecasts of $75 and $70 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively.June 16 – As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to mitigate soaring fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the U.S. emergency crude oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level since 1983. According to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (established in the early 1970s following the Arab oil embargo) has fallen to approximately 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the reserves history, leaving approximately 243 million barrels, just about one-third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the U.S.s flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson stated that the government is managing the reserve according to its intended purpose: to help stabilize the oil market, protect the U.S. from supply disruptions, and make the U.S. more energy secure.Fitch Ratings: If the agreement fully opens the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market is expected to return to oversupply within about a month.Fitch Ratings: (Regarding a potential US-Iran deal) believes that Irans nuclear program and capabilities will remain a source of tension in its relations with the US and Israel.

Prior to the release of Australian employment data, the AUD/JPY pair attempts to regain 89.00

Alina Haynes

Apr 12, 2023 13:44

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The AUD/JPY pair attempts to reclaim the critical resistance level of 89.00 during the Asian session. Kazuo Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), has advocated for an extension of the already decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy in order to consistently achieve an inflation rate above 2%.

 

The decelerating Producer Price Index (PPI) contradicts the optimistic outlook of the Japanese government regarding wage growth. As expected by market participants, the March PPI did not change. The annual PPI came in at 7.2%, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 7.1% but lower than the previous release of 8.1%. The inability of companies to sustain accelerating production rates at factory gates is indicative of weak household demand.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank anticipate that the Japanese Yen will only appreciate over the long term if the current monetary policy is abandoned quickly.

 

Regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC), the IMF has stated that allowing more flexibility in YCC could have repercussions for global markets, but it could also prevent future policy shifts that could result in significant spillovers.

 

Investors are awaiting the March Employment Report for fresh impetus in the Australian Dollar. The market expects the Australian economy to add 20,000 employment, which is less than the previous estimate of 64.6K. While the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in February, it is anticipated that the Unemployment Rate will increase to 3.6%.

 

Governor Philip Lowe of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the door open for additional rate hikes if Australian inflation persists, so the publication of stronger-than-expected employment gains could reignite fears of additional rate hikes.

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