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Oil prices fell on Monday as the prospect of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and OPEC+ plans to increase production again in August boosted supply outlook. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said: "After the Iran-Israel ceasefire, the market has basically eliminated the geopolitical risk premium included in oil prices. Further weighing on the market was the news that four representatives from OPEC+ said the organization plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, after similar increases in May, June and July."June 30th news, recently, a latest opinion poll in Japan showed that the approval rating of the cabinet led by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is 24%, which has been below 30% for four consecutive months. In Japanese politics, if the approval rating of the cabinet is below 30%, it will be regarded as entering "dangerous waters" by public opinion; if it further falls below 20%, it will be regarded as falling into "resignation waters". According to Japanese media, if the current ruling coalition fails to win a majority of seats in the Senate election held on July 20, Shigeru Ishiba may lose the prime ministership.Japanese government official: The number of companies worried about the impact of US tariffs has increased slightly.Futures June 30 news, the current Fed has obvious differences in the subsequent rate cut rhythm. As a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, Fed Governor Waller expressed a dovish attitude. In his speech this month, Waller believed that tariffs would not significantly push up inflation, so the Fed should consider lowering interest rates at the July interest rate meeting. Bowman, who took office as the Feds vice chairman of supervision this year, also said that if inflationary pressure is under control, he supports lowering interest rates as soon as possible at the next interest rate meeting. Powells monetary policy decision more reflects the differences in his own views and positions with Trump, which will eventually give way to the maintenance of the credit of the US dollar. The huge interest expenditure will squeeze the space for the overall fiscal expenditure of the United States for both Republicans and Democrats. It is certain that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. The international silver price will show a strong trend when the Feds easing expectations increase. It is recommended to maintain a long position on the silver price in terms of strategy.Japanese government official: Manufacturers sentiment has deteriorated due to uncertainty in the production environment.

AUD/USD However, 0.6700 is the key to the upside

Daniel Rogers

Apr 11, 2023 14:41

AUD:USD.png 

 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning in Asia, the AUD/USD receives bids near 0.6650 to recover recent losses. In doing so, the Aussie pair recovers from the lowest levels in two weeks while reversing course from the horizontal support that has been in place for 12 days around 0.6620.

 

Nonetheless, imminent bearish MACD signals and a stable RSI indicate that the AUD/USD pair will continue to decline.

 

The convergence of the 10-day moving average and the support-turned-resistance line from March 10, close to the round number 0.6700, may also threaten the most recent price recovery.

 

Even if the AUD/USD bulls are able to surpass 0.6700, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's February-March decline, located around 0.6805, will serve as the final line of defense for the bears.

 

Alternately, a break below 0.6620 could initiate a new decline aiming for the Year-to-Date (YTD) low established in February around 0.6565.

 

Notably, the AUD/USD pair's decline beyond 0.6565 confronts multiple obstacles to the south, including the highs for October 2022 near 0.6545 and 0.6520.

 

After that, a decline to the November 2022 low of approximately 0.6275 cannot be ruled out.

 

Regardless of the recent corrective rally, the AUD/USD remains on the radar of skeptics.