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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

 NZD:USD.png

 

During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.