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European Central Bank officials expect to further tighten policy in October.On September 10th, the Trump administration announced it would send $500 to nearly one million Americans, arguing that those who purchased health insurance through the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace were being "overcharged." The White House said Thursday that the checks are expected to mail out in October, just before the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Widespread disapproval of Trumps handling of the cost of living has hampered Republican candidates in key districts nationwide. The White House stated that the payments related to Obamacare were due to a "significant cash surplus" accumulated during the Biden administration, accusing the Biden administration of charging "excessive" user fees to those using the federal marketplace in the form of "higher premiums." Nevertheless, these payments—which the White House describes as costing nearly $500 million—could exacerbate ongoing concerns about inflation and the nations escalating budget deficit and public debt. Trump has long attempted to repeal Obamacares landmark law but has failed. In addition, he has proposed directly subsidizing Americans insurance purchases instead of paying health insurance companies.The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) projects that French HICP inflation will rise to 3.1% in December from 2.7% in August. The INSEE also projects French economic growth of 0.4% in 2026, lower than the 0.7% forecast in June.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that India remains a global economic growth engine and is closely monitoring the impact of high oil prices on India.1. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending September 4, total U.S. natural gas inventories stood at 3.254 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 40 billion cubic feet from the previous week, but a decrease of 79 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. This is 148 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 4.8%. 2. Houthi Spokesperson in Yemen: Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain safe and unimpeded. 3. This week, Mysteels Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profitability of independent coking plants nationwide. The national average profit per ton of coke was -17 yuan/ton; the average profit for first-grade coke in Shanxi was 43 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 15 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was 3 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was 64 yuan/ton. 4. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center stated that the strong El Niño this year, which is already disrupting global weather patterns, has a 75% probability of becoming a "historic event," surpassing all records since 1950. The center stated in an update on Thursday that El Niño is likely to continue strengthening until the end of the year. However, the stronger it becomes, the more likely it is to affect global weather in a predictable way. 6. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 272,000 tons of soybeans to China and 206,500 tons to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 7. Data shows that the U.S. August PPI annual rate was 2.4%, higher than the market expectation of 5.3%, while the August core PPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%, releasing mixed signals as Federal Reserve officials debated whether to raise interest rates next week. After the PPI data release, the market fully anticipated a Fed rate hike in October. 8. OPECs monthly report shows that OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision. However, the OPEC organization still believes that the impact on consumption since the outbreak of the war with Iran has been less than that of other forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency, which predicts that demand will decline in 2026.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

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During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.