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July 10, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos latest article said that a debate brewing within the Federal Reserve on how to deal with the risks posed by Trumps tariffs may end a period of relative unity, and officials may disagree on whether new cost growth is a reason to keep interest rates high. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has hinted that the threshold for rate cuts may be lower than it looked this spring, but no rate cuts are expected this month. Instead, Powell described a "middle path": if inflation data is lower than expected or the job market is slightly weak, this may be enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the end of summer. This standard is lower than the previous more stringent threshold-at that time, against the backdrop of more massive tariff increases triggering violent inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve may require more obvious signs of economic deterioration before considering rate cuts. The tariff increase announced by Trump in April exceeded expectations, sparking concerns about stagflation with weakening economic growth and rising prices, disrupting the Federal Reserves plan to resume rate cuts this year. But since then, two developments have driven a possible shift. First, Trump has reduced some of the most extreme tariff increases; second, tariff-related consumer price increases have not yet become a reality. This provides a key test of competing theories about whether tariffs are inflationary and has sparked internal disagreements over how to manage forecast errors.Delin Holdings (01709.HK) rose more than 60%. The company plans to tokenize assets of up to 500 million yuan, of which no more than 60 million will be used for distribution to shareholders.Pulson Energy (00090.HK) rose more than 240%. The company has subscribed to Series A preferred shares issued by HashKey Holdings. After the subscription is completed, the company will hold a maximum of 5% equity in digital asset financial services company HashKey.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened at 23,865.64 points, down 26.68 points, or 0.11%, on July 10 (Thursday); the Hang Seng Technology Index opened at 5,218.31 points, down 13.68 points, or 0.26%, on July 10 (Thursday); the CSI 300 Index opened at 8,588.74 points, down 8.53 points, or 0.1%, on July 10 (Thursday); the H-share Index opened at 4,110.46 points, up 1.88 points, or 0.05%, on July 10 (Thursday).Hang Seng Index futures opened down 0.07% at 23,866 points, 26 points below the spot price.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.