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July 10th - Last month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) boosted its crude oil production to a record high. This powerfully demonstrates that Abu Dhabi has taken a bolder approach than any of its Persian Gulf neighbors in the face of supply disruptions caused by the conflict with Iran. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report, the UAEs average daily production in June was 4.1 million barrels. This figure surpasses the peak production of 4 million barrels per day reached in 2020 during its brief price war with Saudi Arabia over OPEC+ policy. Abu Dhabis aggressive strategy has become increasingly apparent since the outbreak of the conflict, ranging from utilizing its vast fleet to chartering more vessels controlled by South Koreas Sinokor Group (which currently operates the worlds largest fleet of very large crude carriers). Many of these vessels operate in a "shadow" manner, turning off their digital transponders to transport crude oil out of the Persian Gulf undetected. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC at the end of April to escape the organizations production restrictions and pursue its expansion plans. This strong resumption of production largely occurred before the surge of merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz this week.According to Iranian reports, flight operations at Mashhad Airport in Iran are currently unaffected.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7784 against the US dollar at 16:30 on July 10, up 151 points from the previous trading day.Goldman Sachs expects the South African Reserve Bank to keep interest rates unchanged in July, following dovish comments from the bank.IEA Monthly Report: OPEC+ production is expected to increase by 5.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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