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On May 5th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, highlighting its determination to curb stubborn high inflation and solidifying its position as the "lone wolf" among major central banks globally. The RBA voted 8-1 to raise the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing the monetary easing cycle of last year. In a statement, the bank said that after three rate hikes, monetary policy is well-prepared to respond to changing circumstances, and the committee is focused on achieving its mandate of price stability and full employment, and will take all necessary actions to achieve this goal. Currently, most economists expect the RBA to remain on hold for an extended period, but a minority believe there will be at least one more rate hike, a view shared by the money market. With three consecutive rate hikes, the RBA committee is also signaling that it prioritizes its 2% to 3% inflation target over all other considerations. This aggressive stance puts further pressure on the Australian government. With one week to go before the annual budget is released, it is expected to address war-related energy price increases and provide temporary cost-of-living relief for households.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the committee will focus on data and evolving outlook and risk assessments to guide its decision-making.Reserve Bank of Australia: Higher fuel prices are exacerbating inflation, and there are signs that this could have a broader secondary impact on the prices of goods and services.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel and related commodity prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Reserve Bank of Australia: There are early signs that many businesses facing cost pressures are beginning to seek to raise prices for their goods and services.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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