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September 18th - Nikkei futures extended gains as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, a move widely expected. The Bank of Japan stated that underlying inflation is approaching its 2% target and that it will closely monitor Middle East conflicts, the yens exchange rate, and demand for artificial intelligence. Investors are now focused on Governor Kazuo Uedas press conference later on Friday for clues about the pace of future rate hikes.Following the Bank of Japans interest rate hike, gains in benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond futures narrowed, with the latest increase being 0.22 yen.At the close of the morning session, most domestic futures contracts declined, with SC crude oil falling over 8%, coking coal over 6%, coke nearly 5%, bottled chip nearly 4%, and paraxylene, staple fiber, PTA, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) all falling over 3%. On the upside, container shipping to Europe rose nearly 3%, Shanghai silver rose over 2%, Shanghai lead and international copper rose nearly 2%, and apples, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai tin rose over 1%.On September 18th, Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end gold price forecast of $5,400/oz. Goldman Sachs stated that while the latest US interest rate hike may slow golds rise, it will not change its long-term bullish outlook. In its report, Goldman Sachs expects "the impact of tighter monetary policy to primarily manifest as a slowdown in the short-term appreciation path of gold, rather than a decline in the final gold price"; the continued diversification of reserves by central banks remains the main structural driver for its bullish outlook on gold. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish policy, gold may experience a more significant correction. If the Fed raises interest rates three more times this year and signals further increases in final interest rates, gold prices could fall to around $4,070/oz; however, with central banks continuing to purchase gold to support the market, gold prices are expected to rebound to around $4,200/oz by the end of 2026.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Chinas raw coal output in August 2026 was 361.823 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%; the cumulative output from January to August was 3064.427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. By province, the cumulative year-on-year changes in raw coal output from January to August were 3.3% for Inner Mongolia, 12.5% for Shanxi, and 3.8% for Shaanxi.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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