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July 6th - The US ISM Services PMI report showed that economic activity in the service sector continued to expand in June. The services PMI registered 54, marking the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. Miller, chairman of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, stated that the June services PMI was 54, down 0.5 from 54.5 in May. The business activity index remained in expansion territory, down 2.3 from 57.7 in May to 55.4. The price index fell to 67.7 in June, down 3.6 from 71.3 in May, marking the first time it has fallen below 70 since February. This index has been above 60 for 19 consecutive months, with a 12-month average of 68. Diesel, gasoline, petroleum, and related commodities were again mentioned as the commodities with the largest price increases in June, but other respondents reported price declines. This may be due to differences in contract terms between different companies for these commodities. Some respondents reported lower prices for gasoline and diesel, but this was not a widespread phenomenon. We expect this situation to continue for several months as rising oil prices are transmitted to the supply chain, but assuming continued progress in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, it should ease in the fall.The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing supplier deliveries index for June was 54.4, compared to 55.2 in the previous month.The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing inventory index for June was 51.2, down from 62.5 in the previous month.The U.S. Conference Board Employment Trends Index for June was 106.69, compared to 107.01 in June.The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing new orders index was 55.1 in June, compared with 57.3 in the previous month.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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