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A Reuters poll of 35 economists showed that 18 of them expect the Bank of Korea to raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% on August 27, while the rest believe the rate will remain unchanged at 2.75%.On August 25th, a CICC research report stated that the markets focus this week is the Jackson Hole meeting and Warshs speech. Warshs previous statement that "let the market raise rates for the Fed" failed to alleviate inflation concerns, and coupled with the ineffective intervention of the Treasury Department, policy credibility has been damaged, leading to a continued rise in US Treasury yields. We expect Warsh to reiterate the risks of inflation and retain the option of raising rates to rebuild credibility, but he will also continue to adhere to his long-term propositions of reducing central bank intervention and decreasing the frequency of communication. We believe that Warsh has not abandoned the policy concept of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," but the premise on which it is based is out of sync with the current reality, requiring coordination and clearer expression. If Warsh can demonstrate sufficient policy flexibility, market concerns about US Treasuries may be partially alleviated, supporting the dollar; conversely, trust will continue to erode, long-term US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will be under pressure.The Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.00% during the day.August 25th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Lambda, the AI cloud computing service provider backed by Nvidia (NVDA.O), is in talks for a funding round of up to $3 billion, which could pave the way for its IPO next year. The sources said that Lambda, an "emerging cloud" company that provides chip and other AI infrastructure leasing services, is discussing a funding round at a valuation of up to $12 billion or even higher. They stated that the funding negotiations are still ongoing and the terms of the deal have not yet been finalized. It is understood that Lambda has received multiple investment offers for this round, which, according to company insiders, could pave the way for an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year. Some sources indicated that the companys revenue this year is expected to exceed $1.5 billion.The Nikkei 225 index opened down 358.16 points, or 0.55%, at 65,169.93 on Tuesday, August 25.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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