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January 16th - According to sources, some Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers believe that an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike is possible, with a high probability of an April rate increase, as the continued depreciation of the yen could exacerbate already widening inflationary pressures. BOJ policymakers face the daunting task of pushing up years of persistently low borrowing costs amid increasing global headwinds and economic pressures, just as the Japanese economy is beginning to recover from prolonged deflation. The central bank just raised interest rates to a 30-year high in December and is expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. However, sources say many BOJ policymakers believe there is room for further rate hikes, with some not ruling out action in April, which would be earlier than the mainstream market expectation (i.e., a rate hike in the second half of the year). Sources indicate that if sufficient evidence emerges that Japan will continue to achieve its 2% inflation target, some within the BOJ are not ruling out the possibility of early action.Sources say that some within the Bank of Japan believe that interest rate hikes may come sooner than the market expects.On January 16th, according to the Financial Times, the first sale of Venezuelan crude oil by the United States went to a company whose senior oil trader had made substantial political donations to Trumps re-election campaign and attended a White House meeting last week. John Addison, a senior trader at Vitol, donated approximately $6 million to a political action committee supporting Trumps re-election. Last Friday, he attended a high-level meeting with energy industry executives at the White House along with Ben Marshall, head of Vitols U.S. operations. During the event, Addison promised Trump that Vitol would secure the best possible price for Venezuelan oil for the U.S. Vitol stated that Addisons donation was a personal act and did not represent the companys position. Another global commodities trading giant, Trafigura, also purchased $250 million worth of Venezuelan oil, a fact confirmed by two sources familiar with the matter. According to Open Secrets data, the companys total lobbying expenditure in the U.S. in 2024 and 2025 is estimated at $525,000. A U.S. Department of Energy official stated that Vitol and Trafigura, both among the worlds largest energy traders, were selected because they "have the capability and willingness to quickly complete the initial transactions." The official added, "As sales continue to progress, the Department of Energy will continue to evaluate all available options."On January 16th, it was announced at a press conference jointly held by multiple departments regarding the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" that my country is about to enter a phase of large-scale retirement of power batteries. According to estimates by relevant research institutions, the annual amount of waste power batteries generated in 2030 will exceed 1 million tons. Wen Xuefeng, Deputy Director of the Solid Waste and Chemicals Department of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, stated that power batteries contain not only metal resources such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and lithium, but also toxic and harmful substances such as fluorine compounds. If not properly recycled, they will not only pollute the environment but also waste resources. The newly released management measures clarify requirements such as "integrated vehicle and battery scrapping," strengthening the management of power battery recycling and utilization through legal means, which will effectively regulate the behavior of all participating entities.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern about the recent yens exchange rate.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

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Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.