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1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34% to 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.84% to 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.43% to 23,255.19 points. Salesforce fell nearly 7%, and IBM fell more than 6%, leading the Dows decline. Walmart rose nearly 3%, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.62%, with Microsoft and Nvidia both falling nearly 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.94%, with Daqo New Energy and Bilibili both falling more than 4%. Investors sold off tech stocks, and the Nasdaq almost completely wiped out its year-to-date gains. The partial U.S. government shutdown will prevent the January jobs report from being released this Friday as scheduled. 2. European stock markets closed slightly lower. The German DAX index fell 0.07% to 24,781.38 points, the French CAC40 index fell 0.02% to 8,179.5 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.26% to 10,314.59 points. A market correction was triggered by a sharp decline in global AI stocks, uncertainty surrounding the pace of the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts, fundamental problems in the European economy, high market valuations, and profit-taking pressure. 3. US Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.01 basis points to 3.570%, the 3-year Treasury yield rose 0.01 basis points to 3.643%, the 5-year Treasury yield fell 0.34 basis points to 3.832%, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.59 basis points to 4.266%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell 1.76 basis points to 4.895%. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 6.83% to $4,970.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 10.27% to $84.92 per ounce. Signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the end of the US government shutdown, and progress on the US-India trade agreement, coupled with adjustments to risk control measures by exchanges, all boosted market sentiment and drove prices higher. 5. The main WTI crude oil contract closed up 2.83% at $63.9 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 11.079 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations, indicating a contraction in market supply and pushing up oil prices. 6. Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 7.95% to $50,295.0/ton, LME copper up 4.02% to $13,410.0/ton, LME nickel up 3.38% to $17,395.0/ton, LME aluminum up 1.41% to $3,099.0/ton, LME zinc down 0.02% to $3,323.0/ton, and LME lead down 0.08% to $1,961.5/ton.Pony.ai-W (02026.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that, based on a preliminary assessment of the Groups unaudited consolidated management accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025 and currently available information, the Group expects to record a net loss of approximately US$69 million to US$86 million for the reporting period.AMD (AMD.O) CEO Lisa Su: I do not believe the company will face supply constraints when it expands its AI chip production capacity in the second half of the year.Conflict Situation: 1. Kharkiv, Ukraine, has activated its emergency response mechanism. 2. Ukraines power company, DTEK, stated that last nights Russian airstrikes were the largest attack on the energy system since early 2026. 3. The mayor of Kharkiv stated that nearly 270,000 Kharkiv residents are still without heating after the Russian attacks. Peace Negotiations: 1. Ukraine agreed to a multi-tiered plan to implement a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia. 2. Zelensky: The UAE talks aimed to assess Russias willingness to compromise. Ukraine will remain open to similar proposals from the United States, such as a cessation of attacks. Other Developments: 1. Zelensky approved Ukraines new defense plan framework. 2. Zelensky: Ukraine is negotiating with the United States for more Patriot missiles. 3. NATO Secretary General: NATO military support will arrive in Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement is reached. 4. European Commission spokesperson: Ursula von der Leyen will visit Ukraine on the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 5. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that Russias nuclear triad modernization has reached a very advanced stage. February 4th - Barbara Hampton, CEO of U.S. Rare Earth Corporation, stated that the company has over $3 billion in potential funding to build a domestic rare earth and critical mineral supply chain. Hampton anticipates that the funding includes up to $1.6 billion in grants from the U.S. Department of Commerce, with the remainder coming from the private sector. She stated that this would enable the Round Top deposit to begin production by 2028. She said, "Our current communications indicate that the U.S. government is willing to make procurement commitments several years earlier to ensure supply stability." Following the governments announcement of a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan, the companys stock price rose over 17% on Tuesday. It should be noted that federal funding is contingent on achieving phased goals, and private sector investments have not yet been finalized. However, Hampton emphasized that this funding will allow the company to accelerate its plans.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.