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On August 18th, three analysts from DBS Groups research department stated in a commentary that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may accelerate its interest rate hike pace from the current once every six months to once every three to four months. The analysts noted, "We have moved up our expectation for the BOJs next rate hike to September, and anticipate two more rate hikes each in the first and second quarters of 2027, bringing the overnight call rate to 1.75% by mid-2027." They also pointed out that the BOJs recent statements have become more hawkish, and the Japanese government seems less opposed to raising rates earlier than anticipated. DBS Group also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Japan from 0.5% to 0.9%, and its 2027 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%.According to JLC Network Technologys calculations, as of the second working day of August 18th, the change rate was 4.76%, with the average price of benchmark crude oil at $86.57 per barrel. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 260 yuan/ton. The next price adjustment window is at 24:00 on August 28th. 1. Shandong Local Refineries: Yesterday, the sales-to-production ratio of gasoline and diesel from local refineries exceeded 100, and inventories remained low. Coupled with the rise in international crude oil prices, this boosted market restocking sentiment. Driven by these positive factors, it is expected that the price of refined oil products from Shandong local refineries will increase by approximately 100 yuan/ton today. 2. East China: On Tuesday, crude oil prices continued to rise, and positive news boosted the oil market. It is expected that the prices of gasoline and diesel from major oil companies in East China will trend upwards today, with downstream buyers showing low willingness to purchase high-priced resources, mostly maintaining just-in-time purchases, resulting in sluggish trading. 3. South China: On Tuesday, crude oil prices continued to rise, boosted by positive news. The South China gasoline and diesel market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend today. Terminal companies are cautious about purchasing high-priced resources, resulting in a stable overall trading atmosphere. 4. North China: On Tuesday, international oil prices rose again, boosted by positive news. North China gasoline and diesel prices are expected to remain stable to slightly stronger. However, insufficient demand improvement and limited acceptance of high-priced resources mean traders are mainly focusing on lower prices to meet immediate needs. Trading at high levels is cautious and weak. 5. Central China: On Tuesday, crude oil prices continued to rise, boosted by positive news. Central China gasoline and diesel prices are expected to remain firm today, with some units potentially raising their prices further. Traders are mostly maintaining small-order purchases, resulting in a quiet and stable trading environment.On August 18th, Futures News reported that following Indias implementation of its silver import licensing system, approximately 400 tons of licenses have been approved recently, with about 89.81 tons imported through the Indian International Gold and Silver Exchange in August, marking the first recovery in six months. The new regulations require each shipment to be accompanied by an official certificate issued by the government of the country of origin, leading to customs clearance delays. According to research, some silver ingots have also recently been shipped from Hong Kong to India. Currently, the supply in the Indian market has improved compared to July, but logistics still require several weeks, and inventory remains tight.The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by more than 2%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.71%.Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3%, German DAX futures fell 0.3%, and UK FTSE 100 futures rose 0.1%.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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