EUR/USD
1.19088
-1.083%
Gold
5274.98
1.860%
Oil
62.956
0.847%
USD/JPY
153.921
1.148%
GBP/USD
1.37658
-0.594%
GBP/JPY
211.888
0.571%
Real-time News
I. FOMC Statement: 1. High probability of no change. 2. Low probability of signaling "maintaining interest rates unchanged for an extended period"; unemployment rate statement may be adjusted from "somewhat rising" to "somewhat falling"/"remaining stable". II. Voting Ratio: 1. At least one dissenting vote from Milan; Waller and Bowman have a two-way possibility, meaning the voting result could be 11-1 or 9-3. III. Powell Press Conference: 1. Future Policy Path: Powell may: signal a (continued) pause in rate cuts (statement: policy is within a reasonable range), or maintain a stance of no restrictions and a pause in rate cuts, demonstrating policy flexibility (statement: let the data speak for itself). Prerequisites for future rate cuts: clear evidence of a sustained decline in inflation, or a further deterioration in the job market. (Current market expectations: less than 3% chance of a rate cut in March/Powell holds rates steady before leaving office in May/rate cuts to resume in June) 2. Responding to questions about Fed independence, subpoenas, and whether he will "confront" Trump. 3. The issue of interest rate hikes may be raised, but Powell stated in December that "a rate hike is not anyones base case." 4. Will he remain a board member after his term ends? IV. Beware of Trumps sudden announcement of a new chairman. 1. The top four predicted candidates by the market: BlackRock executive Rick Reid, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, and White House National Economic Council Director Hassett. 2. Will the new chairman push for a 50bp rate cut? V. Sudden market fluctuations/geopolitics. 1. US Dollar: Before the FOMC decision was announced, Bessant stated that "the United States has long pursued a strong dollar policy," while Trump had recently stated that he was "not worried about the dollars depreciation," causing the dollar to fluctuate sharply in the short term. 2. Japanese Yen: Before the FOMC decision was announced, Bessant stated that "the United States will not intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen." Previously, expectations of coordinated US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market had increased, coupled with Trumps "depression of the dollar," pushing the yen back up. 3. Gold and Silver: Ahead of the FOMC decision, precious metals exhibited a pattern of "long periods of significant upward movement followed by short periods of minor pullbacks." A clearer outlook for a Fed rate cut could have some impact, and Trump may also raise geopolitical issues again during this period. 4. US Stocks: The S&P 500 index broke through 7000 points for the first time before the decision and then retreated. Some investment banks believe that the prospect of a Fed rate cut still favors US stocks.Apollo Chief Economist Slok: The Federal Reserve will indicate that they are in a wait-and-see mode. We expect the U.S. economy to grow faster this year, and current growth is expected to be higher than the market consensus.On January 29th, Wedbush analysts stated that Apples (AAPL.O) artificial intelligence plans will be a key focus during the companys earnings call. Analysts noted that Apple is working to reshape Siri, choosing Googles Gemini model as the underlying support for the new version. They also pointed out that Apple recently hired a key AI researcher and expanded the responsibilities of its senior vice president of hardware engineering to include design work. Analysts stated that now is "the time for Apple to unveil its blueprint and accelerate its AI strategy by 2026." Analysts believe that management has the ability to continuously adjust its positioning to help Apple make progress in the field of AI.January 29th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 3.36% to 1197 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 1.46% to 28885 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil futures contract rose 1.54% to 463 yuan/barrel.On January 29th, UBS reiterated its target of 7700 points for the S&P 500 in a report released Wednesday, believing that a strong macroeconomic backdrop will boost US stocks. UBS Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Equities, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, wrote in the report that this judgment is partly based on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, although the Fed is expected to pause its easing cycle today. He wrote, "We believe that the Fed still has room for further policy easing in the coming months, and as more evidence of a weakening US labor market emerges and inflation remains under control, the Fed may be able to cut rates further."
