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On January 14th, Brian Martin, Head of G3 Economy Research at ANZ Bank, stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in January, but the view that the rate-cutting cycle is on a long-term pause lacks a reasonable basis. He believes the Fed should resume rate cuts soon, with the committee likely to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in March and another 25 basis points in June, bringing the target rate down to 3.00%-3.25% by mid-year. Martin pointed out that as the impact of previous tariffs on price increases fades, wage growth slows, and housing inflation cools, US inflation will gradually moderate by 2026.A Bank of Korea official stated that the USD/KRW exchange rate above 1400 is inconsistent with economic fundamentals.On January 14th, it was learned from Alibaba Cloud that Liu Weiguang, Senior Vice President of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group and President of the Public Cloud Business Unit, stated, "Alibaba Clouds goal is to capture 80% of the incremental growth in Chinas AI cloud market by 2026." Liu Weiguang added, "However, even 10% of the incremental growth next year will be greater than the total growth of the previous year, so past achievements are not important; the changes have only just begun."January 14th - According to a Financial Times report on Wednesday, Coca-Cola has abandoned its plans to sell its Costa coffee chain after private equity firms offered less than expected. The report, citing two sources familiar with the matter, stated that the US beverage giant terminated negotiations with remaining bidders in December, putting the months-long bidding process on hold.January 14th - Gold and silver continued to hit record highs during Asian trading hours due to escalating geopolitical risks. President Trumps statement on Tuesday that aid was imminent to Iranian protesters foreshadowed potential US action against the regime. Two foreign exchange strategists from OCBC Group Research noted in a report that the dramatic developments in Iran highlight the continued geopolitical uncertainty, while the fundamental support for precious metals remains solid.

AUD/JPY Exceeds 90.30 As RBA Considers Option To Raise Rates Prior To Pause

Daniel Rogers

Apr 18, 2023 14:02

AUD:JPY.png 

 

Following the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/JPY pair surged above the 90.30-point critical resistance level. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers actively considered the decision to raise rates further. However, the decision to maintain the status quo was made after the collection of additional data.

 

Citing the resilience of Australia's financial system, RBA policymakers believed that the Board's future cash rate decisions would depend on the global economy, household spending trends, inflation projections, and employment forecasts.

 

Continue to monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics. Compared to its stagnant performance in the final quarter of CY2022, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 2.2%. Compared to the previous annual growth rate of 2.9%, the current annual growth rate for the economy is 4.0%. Australia is China's greatest trading partner, and stronger Chinese GDP data would strengthen the Australian Dollar.

 

The announcement of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate decision later this week will be crucial. Last week, the People's Bank of China pledged to provide additional monetary support to spur retail demand. Despite the reopening of China's economy following a period of economic restraint, the country's inflation rate has been consistently declining over the past few months.

 

According to Jiji news and Reuters, the Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a projection for consumer price growth between 1.6% and 1.9% for the 2025 fiscal year, a move seen as preventing market participants from betting on the central bank's departure from stimulus. This has also delayed the possibility of a shift away from an expansionary monetary policy, which cannot be considered until the Japanese inflation rate persists above 2%.


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