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On February 8, the median U.S. 1-year inflation forecast rose to its highest level since November 2023. Capital Economics assistant economist Ruben Gargallo Abergus wrote: "This at least adds another reason for the Fed to remain cautious and suspend the easing cycle for a while." Higher inflation expectations are not the only inflation headwinds the Fed is currently facing. Wage growth continued to exceed expectations in January, which could push up inflation in the service sector. Economists expect Fed officials to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18-19 policy meeting, and may even extend the suspension of rate cuts at the June meeting.The Israeli military says it has struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.According to Iranian state media reports, Irans Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting senior Hamas leaders in Tehran.On February 8, four large model application products under Baidu Smart Cloud, namely Keyue, Xiling, Yijian and Zhenzhi, were officially launched with access to the new version of the DeepSeek model.On February 8, according to Nikkei Chinese, Japans soaring food prices are dragging down personal consumption. The results of the household survey of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan showed that consumer spending in 2024 actually decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The "Engel coefficient", which indicates the proportion of food in consumer spending, is 28.3%, a 43-year high. Monthly spending in December 2024 actually increased by 2.7%, and consumption showed a recovery trend. From the perspective of the composition of consumer spending in 2024, the negative factors that actually contributed the most to consumer spending are transportation and communications, which actually decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. Due to the exposure of certification violations by some Japanese automakers, automobile production was suspended for a time, affecting consumption.

NZD/USD Nears 0.6220 Amid a Weak U.S. Dollar, With New Zealand Inflation in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 19, 2023 15:54

 NZD:USD.png

 

After defending the round-level support at 0.6200, the NZD/USD pair exhibited a lackluster performance during the Asian session. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) performs unfavorably, the Kiwi asset approaches the 0.6220 level of resistance.

 

S&P500 futures have extended their losses because investors are concerned about the future performance of stocks, indicating a cautious performance. US commercial institutions have displayed a mixed performance thus far. In the aftermath of March's turmoil and restrictive credit conditions, investors were initially apprehensive about the quarterly performance of banking stocks.

 

Following a substantial retracement, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade above 101.78. In spite of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, the USD Index failed to exhibit a power-packed movement. As reported by Reuters, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, advocated for the continuation of the central bank's policy tightening in view of the continued strength of labor market data.

 

In the second half of 2023, the probability of a recession decreases, according to Fed policymakers, as robust labor demand drives global consumption.

 

Thursday's quarterly inflation data is anticipated to affect the New Zealand Dollar. The New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 2.0% from 1.4% in the first quarter of CY2023, according to the consensus. New Zealand's annual inflation rate has increased to 7.5% from 7.2%. As a result of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) decision to raise interest rates, households in the New Zealand economy are expected to bear a suffocating burden as a result of the country's rising inflation.

 

In addition, this suggests that RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation.