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According to CMEs "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 40.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 59.4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 15.8%.According to Sepahnews, a media outlet affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Irans tough response continues.According to Sepahnews, a media outlet affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Iranian missiles struck US targets in Jordan.Conflict Update: 1. The Houthi rebels announced a broad military operation deep within Saudi territory. 2. The Houthis claimed that there is "no safe place" in Saudi Arabia and that all energy facilities are legitimate targets. 3. According to Al-Masirah TV, controlled by the Houthis, Saudi Arabia launched four airstrikes on Marib, Yemen. 4. Energy and utility facilities in southern Saudi Arabia were attacked by the Houthis, temporarily suspending some operations. 5. Iran claimed to have seized the "worlds most advanced intelligent unmanned submarine." 6. Alerts were issued in Jizan, Najran, and Abha provinces of Saudi Arabia, but were subsequently lifted. 7. US officials responded to Irans "seizure" of an underwater drone: the equipment was malfunctioning and contained no sensitive data. 8. Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island and Jask region of Iran. 9. Irans Tasnim News Agency reported that an Iranian oil tanker was attacked by a US missile four miles from Kharg Island. No casualties were reported, and the tanker crew is being evacuated. 10. According to Fox News: Senior U.S. officials stated that the U.S. militarys attacks on targets near Kharg Island and Jask, involving Iranian oil tankers, are part of the U.S. effort to exert economic pressure by weakening Irans oil export capabilities. 11. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy stated that in response to the U.S. attacks on multiple Iranian oil tankers, it will issue warnings to all oil tankers docked in Kuwaiti and Bahrain ports and anchorages, demanding that crew members immediately evacuate their vessels, and stating that these ships will become targets. Strait of Hormuz 1. According to Saudi media Alhadath: Iran and the U.S. are exchanging views on negotiation plans and conditions through mediators. Iran has presented new conditions for resuming negotiations to the U.S. Iran stated that there is no need to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding with the U.S. 2. According to Iranian state media: The Iranian Joint Military Command stated that if Iranian ships are attacked, it will "severely damage" U.S. interests in the Middle East. Other Matters 1. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a new round of sanctions related to Iran. 2. Saudi Foreign Minister: Diplomatic channels with the Houthis remain open. 3. U.S. officials: If the UK sanctions Israeli settlements, there will be an immediate response. 4. International Organization for Migration: Fighting escalates off Yemens west coast, displacing approximately 18,500 people in three days. 5. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We are approaching a decisive moment in our confrontation with the "octopus" (Iran and its regional allies network). 6. US media: US officials say recent Iranian actions against US warships suggest the possibility of Iran using more advanced missiles. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Missouris request to use a Republican-drawn map of its congressional districts in its November midterm elections.

AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bulls Surpass 1.0790 Resistance Confluence Due To Positive Australian Employment Report

Alina Haynes

Apr 13, 2023 14:19

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AUD/NZD supporters are approaching their highest levels since early March as a result of a four-day uptrend following Thursday morning's release of robust Australian employment data. At the time of publication, the currency pair is accepting bids to reestablish the multi-day high near 1.0810.

 

The Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported for the month of March that Employment Change increased by 53K compared to 20K expected and 64.6K previously, while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.6% compared to expectations of 3.6%. In addition, the Participation Rate rose to 66.7%, exceeding the 66.7% predicted by the market.

 

The AUD/NZD pair surpassed the previous critical resistance confluence surrounding 1.0790, which was comprised of the 100-day moving average (DMA) and a one-month-old downward trend line.

 

The bullish MACD signals and stronger, non-overbought RSI (14) line contribute to the strength of the upside bias.

 

The AUD/NZD bulls are currently positioned to test the 50-day moving average of 1.0824. However, the preceding monthly apex of about 1.0895 and the round number 1.0900 may limit future gains.

 

Alternately, retracement remains elusive until the AUD/NZD pair remains above the support-turned-resistance level of 1.0790.

 

Then, a breach of the upward-sloping trend line from March 5 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's run-up from December 2022 to February 2023, located near 1.0705, could give the bears room to maneuver in their subsequent analysis.